Good job Pauly! I remember showing something like that myself pointing out there really isn't any statistical evidence of the Pats cheating, except for the abnormal fumbling stats since 2007.

However, regarding winning in Foxboro not being anything special, it certainly is for the Dolphins. As I pointed out in that "Week Four Stats: New England" thread, we're 2-15 at Foxboro since 2001 with our last win in 2008 (a decade ago!). So while it's true that on average NE is no better at home relative to other strong teams, it's not true that it's equally easy for a specific team (i.e., the Dolphins) to win at NE.

Yes it will be real test for us come Sunday, and somewhat historic I should add if we win.

 

Your entire argument is based on one flaw- that the Patriots have been an awesome team for the last 15 seasons. How are we 4-1 in our house the past 5 years yet 0-5 in their house? Statically speaking, we've been a better road team in those five years everywhere but NE, Buffalo and Baltimore. It's amazing that 31 other teams have had the exact same problem.

I'm not doubting your research- I'm doubting the actual basis that the Pats are/were something special to begin with. We heard some Jets players mentioning that they figured out play calls in week 1 and look what happened- they absolutely destroyed their opponent. Wouldn't the Pats gain an equal advantage with one of the nation's best lip readers in their press box? I mean, come on...just Google Ernie Adams and his job description for the Pats.

Wouldn't that also explain how the Pats have won so many playoff games (AT HOME) and then got destroyed in the Super Bowl (AT A NEUTRAL FIELD)? I'm guessing if you took our painfully average Dolphins teams from the past 15 years and put them all in the Super Bowl as many times as NE, we'd have just as many wins on any given Sunday.

 

That is true, but keep in mind that includes 2008 when we went 11-5 as well as the early 2000's when we were actually a good team (meaning that when teams are approximately evenly matched the odds change.. to about 58% win probability for the home team).

We've gone 0-9 at Foxboro since then! In comparison the Jets have gone 5-12 at Foxboro during the same period. The Bills? Well they've been bottom feeders forever but even they have won 2 of their last 4 at New England (though they've lost practically every time before that lol). Point is, in recent history we've done really bad up there so yeah it would be special.

 

They've been caught cheating over and over again, and no...I'm not talking about deflategate. Multiple teams have complained multiple times, and Mr. Kraft has admitted as much. Bellichek promised to stop, said it was a misunderstanding, etc....this was a decade ago. Yet they've retained Ernie Adams and continue their charades. This isn't a theory- it's been public knowledge for years now.

Your assumption is that the Patriots have been an elite team for the past 15 years, even though they've had revolving doors at practically every position on the field (except QB). That assumption does nothing to explain how they've had one of the top D's even though they never seem to retain top talent. It doesn't explain how they fumble extraordinarily less than every team in the history of the game. There's a ton of stuff not explained by your stats because it compares a great team to a cheating team. Can cheaters do as well as elite non-cheaters? Sure....we don't need a hypothesis for that.

As I said earlier, we just saw a really bad Jets team destroy an opponent by capturing signal calls. The Jets stink- yet they dominated. And the Jets didn't go to half the lengths as New England has with Ernie Adams. For instance, they don't have a library of other team's playbooks and they don't bug hotel rooms, locker rooms, etc. They also don't sign players to 7-day contracts JUST for direct intel. And of course, the Jets didn't deflate footballs either....yet they are a bad team that dominated. What could an average team do with those advantages if they retained home field advantage throughout the playoffs?

I'm not trying to bust your balls here, but it drives me nuts when people say they didn't cheat or that cheating didn't help. This stuff is documented coming from Kraft's and Belichek's mouth. And 10 years ago, Goodell promised that he'd deal out serious consequences for cheaters from then on out (the Pats got a complete pass at the time, which pissed a lot of other owners off).

Here's what is not in those reports though, several teams have complained since then about equipment suddenly not working on critical downs. They've brought up having to bring bug scanning devices to Gillette since it was such a common problem. And Goodell hasn't done anything about it- even when the Pats cheated their way to the Super Bowl a few years back after getting caught yet again (this time I'm talking about Deflategate & no huddle illegal formations/eligible receivers).

Yes, they lost a draft pick- but what team wouldn't forfeit their 1st rounder for a Super Bowl appearance? That wasn't exactly the fierce punishment we were promised.

Stats can never show how effective cheating is though because you have no idea how good the Pats actually were. All we have is comparison to teams that haven't cheated.....that's not really proof of anything. It's like comparing apples to oranges, saying they're both equally sweet, so both must be organic. One thing has nothing to do with the other.

 

The patriots have a great home winning percentage mostly due to their team being so good for that long... that stadium doesnt get ridiculously loud... its not Kansas City..

 

On any given Sunday any team can beat any team. This is the nfl for crying out load. With that being said, the Patriots have been the dominant team in the nfl for years and with that contributes to a defeatist mindset. “Oh great, the Patriots at Foxborogh. “. Well, you’v already lost that game.

These are not the Patriots of old and while I still hold reservations about this game, it’s not inconceivable that we can indeed win this game.

 

I think what Key is saying, is that you're separating that Pats being elite from the cheating as if they are two separate things and not directly related to each other.

Your premise boils down to the Pats don't win more games at home than any other elite team, but you're only considering them elite because of the games they've won. But what if they've won those games through cheating? If, based on talent and the coaching carousel, the Pats are only an average team, but cheated their way to elite level wins, then that throws off your conclusions, no?

 

The simple fact of the matter is it's damn near statistically impossible for a team to maintain the level of dominance the Patriots have in their home stadium with so many different rosters without factoring in some drastic competitive advantage other teams don't have. That advantage is Ernie Adams and his foolproof method of signal stealing at home and whatever other shenanigans the Patriots concoct in their home digs.

 

No.

You're basing all of this on 12.6 win a season teams. What if the Pats, without cheating, are only an 8 win a season team?

 

It’s a mental hurdle which is sometimes tougher than anything physical. You have to fight back that here we go again feeling when things don’t go perfect. Sure we can beat them physically let’s see how this team reacts mentally.

 

But if the Pats are cheating, then the numbers are artificial to begin with. You're looking at it like cheating = 100% wins, 100% of the time. And since they lose one at home every now and then, you see it as proof that the cheating doesn't change anything or it doesn't work. But we can't know that.

I don't want to argue with you- we both have our own opinions. All I'll add is that four teams filed informal complaints as recently as the start of the 2017 season (that I personally know of). Prior complaints about other stuff is what ultimately led to Deflategate, and some team execs were upset when the other stuff got ignored. But it was still talked about while Goodell refused to take an "official complaint" that would be part of an official transcript. Again, this was supposed to be handled behind closed doors....and I think it actually was at some point last year.

If you look at the way Miami destroyed NE last season, I think the message there was that pressure on Brady can overcome even the best intel. The Pats were still 13-3, of course, and still made it to the Super Bowl. But something changed inside that organization when Belichek gave away his QB of the future and a lot of players wanted out of the system. I think a lot of what they were doing has been scaled back this season and they're not the same on a level playing field.

 

In years past this team has had a slow start. This year they actually believe in the system and have fewer me players. Leadership, belef, and team go a long way. That being said losing to them on the rd wouldn't be the end of the world. However winning would be huge and they know it. Have to play mistake free football.

 

I'm just going to say it.

Baring any injuries, We Will Win This Game. It's going to happen. We are clearly the better team, there's no question. They are slow on defense and lack play making receivers outside of Gronk and Gordon (if he plays). I know they get two guys back on Defense this week but have you seen? Our O tackles are both ranked in the top 20 thus far this year. All things staying the same, we will win this game.

And next week chaos will be the rule of the day in the sports media world as they try to explain it all.

This is going to be fun!

 

I'm praying...I'm hoping...I'm wishing.... But until this team actually wins games like the one coming up I can't believe that they will win.

I hope this is the season where real Miami Dolphins football returns. It's been waaaaaaaaaaaay too long. And I hope we beat the Pats 100-0.

My prediction:

Pats: 24
Dolphins: 10


If the Dolphins can pull it out I will be far more optimistic for the rest of the season. But I refuse to get my heart broken AGAIN due to a team that got lucky a few games and then comes crashing back down to Earth.

 

Well, Even if we lose I'm not gonna be heartbroken, not this year, and we can chock it up to the Pats being the Pats. We sill still have a one game lead in the division regardless.

 

Yeah, winning in Foxboro would make a HUGE difference. But for me it's more winning those "must-win" games near the end of the season that is the threshold we have to cross. We've seen past Dolphins teams collapse right when it's most important. And that's true even when every game counts equally.. the pressure isn't the same in must-win situations.

So I'll be as happy as everyone (or most everyone? .. sometimes you can't quite tell lol) if we beat the Pats on Sunday, but if we beat them and we still fail to make the playoffs.. OMG. Same ole Dolphins. Looking at how this team is playing though, especially with their close games record under Gase, such a collapse does seem less and less likely.

 

Found this interesting: NE has lost 7 out of 17 game #4's since 2001, which is well above expected.

Their 76.8% win% over that time would suggest they should win 13 and lose 4, not lose 7. Out of curiosity I checked whether those 7 losses were statistically significant but they're not (for that you need just above 8 losses lol.. and it's BARELY still not statistically significant if we beat them and it's 8 losses out of 18 games).

Anyway, don't take this stat seriously but I thought that was interesting. For whatever reason NE hasn't done as well in game #4.

 

Part of the cheating the Patriots were caught doing was stealing signals electronically while at their stadium. The benefit from that would not come in that game but in their next game against that opponent.

 

Obviously at home the Patriots have referee help, helmets stay on at all times, they have CIA agents bugging the opposition headsets, and if the opposition is about to win?? They will pay someone to accuse the opposing QB of rape 36 years prior.

Those guy's pull out all the stops!!

 

I've been through enough of these debates I'm staying out of this one (not sure anyone's going to change their mind anyway). However, just for info, there is a sample size effect on your stats which doesn't affect your argument at all, but it's worth pointing out.

For the 120 home games and 120 away games you looked at, the 95% confidence interval for 6.8 wins (talking about NE now) is from 6.2 wins to 7.2 wins. In other words, if the population stat (i.e., those 57 other teams.. though really you need to include NE in this too) lies within the 6.2 to 7.2 interval it's not a "statistically significant" difference – it can still be explained by random variation alone.

Just saying because whether "less than 1% away" is meaningful or not depends on sample size.

The 95% confidence interval for away wins (for NE) is from 5.1 to 6.1 wins. And if you're interested in which method is used to calculate the confidence intervals it's something called the Wilson method for binomial confidence intervals. Anyway, have fun with the debate lol.. but I'm just pointing this out because there is a way to take sample size into account.

 

Dude.. it's Russian interference! Don't tell me you didn't know about the Putin-Belichick connection! (with Ernie Adams the go-between!)

 

Completely off topic, but I'm a computer nerd that used to really enjoy building systems. I go into my local shop one day where I'm friends with the owner (and sometimes worked there for free just to help him out). He's building this $10k+ system with hydro-coolers, next generation fans and five top of the line video cards...and I ask him, who the heck would want a system like this? It turned out that it was back at the start of Bitcoin and it was a mining rig for a very wealthy individual.

That's not the good part though. The owner tells me that I should meet this guy ask ask him his background...he's being kind of squirrely about the details. So I happen to run into the guy a few days later at the shop, we chat for a little bit then ask him what he does for a living. He says he's a retired computer hacker- no hesitation at all. So I ask him for details, and he proceeds to tell me that he stole over $50M across the course of 4 years in the late 80's/early 90's....all $400 or less at a time.

In a nutshell, he lived out of his car for almost 10 months a year, driving cross country and hacking into local servers of major corporations. Once he had access, he's hit their network and grab $100-200 randomly....always at an odd number like $147.68. His program would look for a recent transaction amount in that range and duplicate it just once, then he'd head on to another city and another access point for 56k dial-up. Then he'd wait a month and do the same thing all over again, from a different location and on every account he managed to hack. $100-200 per company, every month, for four long years. He said he's probably stayed in every city in America above a few thousand population.

Anyway, seven years after the fact, he turned himself in. He admitted to over 1,000 misdemeanors that had already passed the statute of limitations, then offered to show each victim how he did it. And guess what? They paid him to help strengthen their networks since there was no online security or major firewalls in the 90's. This guy was one of the first criminals turned corporate heroes and he made 10's of millions more in consulting.

 

Hey guys.. check this out:

We win on Sunday and there will be symmetry in NE's game #4 records from 2001-2018 LOLOL

2001: Miami wins game #4 against NE
2002: NE loss
2003: NE loss
2004: NE win
2005: NE loss
.. now come 8 straight NE wins from 2006 to 2013 .. then:
2014: NE loss
2015: NE win
2016: NE loss
2017: NE loss
2018 ???????? Miami again :)

It's a sign! lol

 

Those are two different things. Yes, humans have trouble being random, but most natural distributions (including most for human behavior) are normal distributions so the most common occurrence is the mean. That's not true in this case though as you can see by those confidence intervals being skewed relative to the mean. In this case the most common occurrence is the median.

All depends on the distribution.

 

Yeah, that's why I told the story...because of what you said. The guy told me that people would steal $5k at a time and then be in jail a month later. He'd take $122.67 and he was never even a suspect.

 

For my edification please, how many home games does an 8-8 team win? 6-10?

 

Speaking of "cheating"...Sean McVay must have invented some bionic device and inserted in Jared Goff's right arm. I haven't seen a QB performance like this in a LONG time.

 

Dude.. this is a fantastic game, at least if you like offense lol. Hey, the NFL must be loving it.

 

Kind of depressing really...our offense isn't even CLOSE, like lite years away from as good as either of these teams. We are scrappy though, we find ways to win, so there is that.

 

I love how the kicker for the Rams is named "Ficken". Where are the German speakers here lol (look under "Verb"):
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/ficken#German

 

From 1978-2017 excluding the strike shortened 1982 season, so all 16-game seasons in NFL history, 8-8 teams have won 59.26% of their home games and 40.74% of their away games. That translates to 4.74 home wins and 3.26 away wins.