Join Club. That's a lot of work with no incentive.

Not to mention, a lot of those answers are already in there.

 

Feel free to ask more direct questions or start a thread in there, and I'm sure many of us would be more than happy and willing to partake in any discussion relating to more in-depth knowledge for the board.

 

That's exactly why I let my membership expire. A lot of times I don't have time to pick through multiple pages just to find a post to a topic that interests me. As you said, many there enjoy that style, so I gave up. While I loved a lot of the club level only information, I realized that I just don't really need that level of detail nor need to invest that much time for something that is entertainment for me.

 

I felt the same way- some of those 50+ page threads are intimidating. Where the heck do you start? Do they stay on-topic? I just don't have the time to comb through it all like many of us did in the "An 18 Year Old Girl Likes Me" thread (suggested reading, by the way- it's freaking hysterical).

Speaking in general to the OP though, we have two awesome safeties. We have three young, talented corners that will continue to be hit/miss. It seems like we finally have a solid LB corp and we've always had great outside pressure from our ends. If we find that starter in the middle to replace Suh, I think we have a legitimate defense.

In terms of what the defense is, they call it the Wide 9. A few here like it, a lot here hate it and we're not 100% positive that's what we will see next season. So while folks can go through dozens of pages answering all of your questions and starting endless debates/arguments, the best possible answer right now is simply, "we have no idea". We're not even positive where everyone is starting yet and a few have never played a snap in a Miami uniform (in a regular season game, anyway).

I have a question though- if you want us to explain every last detail of our defense and how it works, then how'd you have the conclusion that they're nowhere near a top-5 defense? I mean, that's obvious from the rankings alone, but we started very strong on D last season despite the horrible TOP stat. A big part of this discussion boils down to the offense- you'll never see a top five D on the field when that team's offense is among the leaders in 3 and outs.

More defensive snaps equal more yards, which gives the impression that you suck by default. I don't think that's true of the Miami Dolphins for last season or the upcoming season.

 

I know this is counter-intuitive, but what you said isn't true and there are quite a few counter-examples. For example in 2016 the top 5 defenses by points allowed were Patriots, Giants, Seahawks, Broncos and Cowboys:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/opp.htm

The top 5 teams by 3 and out percentages and total 3 and out drives were: Rams, 49ers, Giants, Broncos and Dolphins.
https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/three-and-out-percentage/2016/

In other words, in just one year you had 2 top 5 defenses (Giants and Broncos) whose offenses were top 5 in 3 and outs.

It's more than just 3 and outs btw. Offense points per game and defense points allowed have a -0.33 correlation with each other across all NFL history and -0.278 since 2000. So it's not zero but it's not a strong correlation meaning that you'll find many more such examples with other offensive and defensive stats.

 

As I said, it's pretty simple math- the less your defense on the field, the less the opponent can advance the ball. I'm sure there have been plenty of outliers over the years and that tells me those defenses were probably better than advertised (playing more snaps than normal AND finishing among the lowest in points scored/yards allowed or whatever metric we're plugging in here).

Let's put it in an equation though. Team A's defense plays 1,000 total snaps during the regular season. Team B's defense plays 880 snaps in the same time frame. Without looking at anything else, which team is expected to give up more <plug in any offensive metric>?

Just going off of league averages of around 60 offensive snaps per game, those 120 extra plays are delivering 6 TD's and 650+ yards. Yet that's only giving the other team an extra 8 plays per game to get to that 120 play mark...it's not an astronomical number. A few three and outs per game gets you to that total.

 

The 120 extra plays ~ 6 TD's is actually correct. Best-fitting line between defensive plays (DP) in 2017 and points allowed (PA) in 2017 is: PA = 0.3524*DP - 9.7158. So the slope is 0.3524, meaning 120*0.3524 = 42.29 points = 6 TD's!

The 650+ yards is a bit of an underestimate. The slope there is 6.6 so 6.6*120 = 792 yards.

Either way that supports what you're saying. Problem is.. 8 extra plays per game is HUGE. The average number of plays allowed per game in 2017 was 63.36 but the standard deviation is 2.3 plays. In other words asking for another 2 standard deviations = 4.6 plays more or less per game is asking for something that happens ~5% of the time. Go out to 3 standard deviations = 7 more plays and that's where you get into that "astronomical" territory.

So yeah.. theoretically it could matter that much, but in practice it doesn't.

 

Please post some graphs and charts with cool colors, bro. :clap:

 

Well, in 2017 New England averaged 67.5 offensive plays per game (70.6 at home and 64.1 away). Just in their home/away alone you have a 6.5 play variant. And if you look at the team with the least number of offensive snaps, Cinci gets 57.9 per game (60.9 home/55.0 away). Again, a 6 play variant but compared to NE, Cinci is 10 snaps per game behind.

And if it's Cinci playing at NE, then you have a 15.6 play variance.

Miami was 22nd last year with 62.2 offensive plays per game (63.7 home/61.0 away). That's up from 2016 when they had 57.4 snaps per game....which was BY FAR the worst in the league that year (LA was 2nd at 60.0). So just in 2016, we were giving up 2.4 snaps x 16 games = 38.4 snap difference between us and #31 in the league. Compared to #1 New Orleans (69.1/game) we had 187.2 less snaps.....which is where I picked the theoretical example in the last post from.

This past season, New England (#1) had 84.4 more offensive snaps than us. Cleveland (#32) had 68.8 less than us. Add em up and you have a 153.2 snap variance between NE and Cinci....much further apart than your estimates predict. And I know we're comparing the best and the worst here....but we were the worst in 2016 for offensive snaps and #22 last year.

Rarely will Cinci's 2017 defense rank as well as NE's 2017 defense....153 extra/less snaps is going to make a massive difference. The same goes for us in 2016 since the numbers were even more lopsided. Anyway, I know that doesn't PROVE anything about a defense; I just felt like doing the math.

Also, I just looked at the average scores/yards per game across the league last year to get those stats in the other post, which happened to be 60 plays for 3 TD's and 330ish yards. Since the example was 120 snaps differential, I just multiplied each by 2. I have no clue how you did it with the formula but my way was way easier. =)

PS- I scored a 780 math on the SAT back in high school so my mind has the processing power...I chased writing though. The most complex math I do these days is making a grocery list or balancing a checkbook, so this wasn't about proving anyone wrong...I just enjoyed the process to argue a unique viewpoint.

 

Yeah, like I said in theory you're right. But the question is how likely is it in practice that a team improves that much solely through reducing 3 and outs? Just saying.. it's really unrealistic even though it's theoretically possible.

To put some numbers behind this, note that improving by 8 extra plays per game means you need to improve by about 3.2-3.5 standard deviations depending on year. Now, I was only looking at changes during a year, so changes from one year to the next aren't really being covered here, but even if we look at changes from one year to the next.. that's a BIG increase.

You mentioned the Dolphins. In 2016 as you say we were worst with 913 plays on offense. That was 2.674 standard deviations below the mean that year. In 2017 we were much better with 995 plays which was 0.464 standard deviations below the mean. That's a very respectable improvement of 2.21 standard deviations but not close to 3.2.

And that's including ALL influences on offensive plays, not solely through reducing 3 and outs. Point is.. I just don't see this a very realistic strategy, at least over one offseason.

 

:chuckle::chuckle:

 

Wake is probably my 2nd or 3rd favorite Dolphin ever....JT is my favorite and I'd have to put Ricky Williams and a few others in there somewhere. And sometime in the near future, Wake is going to look average due to age. I don't know if it will be 2018 or 2020, but we all know he should be past his prime and what he does at such a high level is phenomenal should be impossible. With that said, I have no idea if he'll be capable in six months or not. I certainly hope so but he's defying the sands of time as it is.

In terms of what defense we run, I don't think it matters as much what it's called- what matters is the execution. We've struggled at LB basically since bringing in Suh....technically we SHOULD HAVE BEEN run-stopping beasts the past few seasons but the penetration by the 2nd level just wasn't there. The LB pass coverage wasn't there either. That's why I was upset this month when we are finally going to have a solid LB corp and we cut Suh; we did that completely backwards in my opinion. You can't control injuries though and it is what it is.

It looks like Suh is going to be a Raider, by the way....nothing official yet though.

So to answer your questions, the most honest answer I can give is "I have no idea". We're still moving pieces around and I don't think our starting defense is complete just yet, so we might not even be in a Wide 9 next year. We really have to wait and see.

 

The 1992 Seahawks had 108punts and only scored 140 points for the season, yet had the #3 scoring defense

 

Yeah, I wasn't comparing the two years....I just included observations for both since I had the stats on the source page I was on. Remember that I was giving you averages though and not actual offensive plays- both NE and Miami were at +/-6 just from home/away games. Interceptions and other turnovers also effect that statistic as well, so I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility to get that 8 play swing one way or the other.

You are right though; I moved on from my "3 and out" to switch to total offense/defense. From the beginning I really just meant teams who stalled on offense frequently...not necessarily just 3 and outs. Miami had a 23% 3/out percentage last year while NE had a 21% ratio. Brady punted 39.5% of the time, where we punted 42.4% of the time. Those seem like slight variance but it adds up to the 87 extra snaps....which is 4.5 TD's and +/- 500ish more yards?

Another interesting stat I found was the the Pats started their average drive with a 6.57 point lead....we started with a -3.19 deficit. So that definitely effects play calling, formations, etc. and how you attack the field in general.

 

Umm.. I think you're mixing things up. The 1992 Seahawks offense stats you're right about:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1992/

But in 1992 Seattle's defense allowed 312 points and was 17th in the league:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1992/opp.htm

The only time in Seattle's history they were ranked 3rd in scoring defense was 2016:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

So I think you mistyped 2016 for 1992 somehow?

 

Schwartz has made it one based on attacking principles, and Burke is his pupil.

It's nothing like the 46, besides the two 9 techs but it contained much different personnel use than ours. Burke's wide 9 approach is built off the principles of the front 4 pressure off the edge with DE's, where as the 46 lent to pressure off the edge w/ a DE, Will (strongside 7) and Sam (the other 9 tech, strongside as well), and in the middle with a Bear front. Our defensive scheme also does not have a free roaming MLB, (who was the SS in a 46) as each off-the-ball LB is assigned gap responsibility, which helps negate one of the weaknesses of the 46 - the C gap bubble. Our scheme also plays more consistently with a front 7, where as the 46 always had an immediate 8 or 9 in the box. Also with our Cover 2 shells the CB's are the flat defenders, and the LB's play the hook/curl areas.

 

Wikipedia said they had the #3 defense which I assumed was scoring, but on closer examination it was the Football Outsiders ranking.
1992 was the year Cortez Kennedy got the defensive MVP on a 2-14 team

 

Suh played the 3, shading the B. Also, the C gap bubble referred to the weakness of the 46, not ours.

In our attacking 1 gap every single front 7 defender is responsible for a gap. Vs heavier personnel groupings the SS is needed to rock down. CBs are also an integral part of the run game, as is the FS as an alley player.

Our attacking philosophy, DL reads pass & reacts to run, LB's read run & react to pass, lends itself to the issue of the DE's getting upfield too quickly leaving creases on the edge, instead of maintaining Force assignments and funneling the ball carrier back to the interior where the DT's rally to the ball. Also leaves the LBs vulnerable to PA.

 

Interesting . . . b/c the 46 is primarily M2M coverage.

I'm really curious as to how you teach zone principles on the weakside where there is only a Will and a CB with the FS playing the MOF.


What are their keys?

What coverages do you use?

And how do you account for shifts and motions?

How do you defend flood routes?

What's your general gameplan vs Spread teams and quick passing games?

What's your coaching points to defend RO's?

I'm definitely curious as to your innovations here.

 

You added this.

What do your blitz packages consist of?

 

Since you obviously don't know the answer CC, you should googols it. :D ;)

 

:crapstrom:

 

I'm not breaking down that film. The answers to my questions are easy and have nothing to do with a single game matchup. Why are you trying to skirt them?

How about just the first one. What kind of zone coverages do you teach/use for the 46?

 

Wait a minute . . . Wow, I do have a lot of questions.

First a few statements:

You do not run a 46 defense.

Um, you're running man coverage here. I thought you claimed you use zone?

What age group is this?

 

This isn't even your team, it's an all-star pop warner game.

 

Maybe he's an all star pop warner coach. I have no idea if he is or isn't; just saying that he could be.

 

But, you had a trips to the field here in this game and it was Cover 0 press vs the bubble. (39:40 mark)

In fact, every coverage in the game you posted is Man Free or Cover 0.

 

Out of what defensive formation?

I have so many questions and not a single one has been answered. All I got was this vague and incomplete hypothetical situation.