I've been in my league for three years now and haven't completed one trade that just involved players....just picks. It is hard for me to gauge value for some reason and was wondering if you guys could help.
14 Team Keeper League.
I finished third last year so I am picking 12, 17, and 40 in a typical snake draft.
KEY PLAYERS:
C Kap
Tannehill
Shady McCoy
Lamar Miller
Julio Jones
Randall Cobb
Josh Gordon (damn you second hand smoke :shifty:)
Keenan Allen
My planned keepers are Shady, Julio Jones, and Randall Cobb. Jamall Charles is available for trade and I want to target him. Other players being kept on the team with Charles is Lacy and Gronk, so there is a WR deficiency there and given how deep I am, I want to trade a WR to try and get Charles to give me two top 5 RBs.
Options that I am looking for criticism;
1. Charles for Julio Jones straight up. Is this worth it? Charles has a knack for getting injured and Julio is young and already a top 5 option. But, I have Randall Cobb and Keenan Allen and expecting both to break out.
2. Charles for Randall Cobb and my third round pick (40). Is this overpaying? I have a tendency to place a lot of stock on draft picks. Maybe a lower pick?
What do you guys think?
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Since everyone is keeping 3 players, a 3rd round pick is essentially a 6th round pick. I would do Cobb and 3rd for Charles.
I would rather have Julio, who is a top 5 WR instead of Cobb and a 6th. In keeper/dynasty leagues is all about getting and keeping your 3 most dominant players. It's to bad you can't leverage Cobb and Allen into a better 3rd keeper, as they are both keeper worthy players. -
Tone_E likes this.
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Ultimately I'd go with your WR package deal suggestion. -
lol youre crazy... want to show me the stat line that shows Cobb is a safer/better receiver than Julio? The 3rd is irrelevant to me considering its a keeper league.
Tone_E likes this. -
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It's funny that Julio can end a season on IR after a repeat injury but still maintain the ability to be sold high. Yeah, I'm with you- definitely sell him high now before it's potentially too late.Boik14 likes this. -
It is a matter of preference but to me the safest way to play this would be something like jones and a late pick for Charles. Keep Charles shady and Cobb and then draft another wr early. You'll have a relatively safe and high target wr 2 with wr1 potential while having the two best PPR backs in the game
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Tone_E likes this.
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For as much potential as Cobb has, he has 1 good year having 900 receiving yards and then was hurt most of last year.
Julio was leading the league in receiving last year before he got hurt and with Roddy only getting older will be the clear cut #1 WR moving forward. You say that Cobb has 1200/12 potential, well Julio already did that in 2012 and last year was on pace for 1800 yards.
I guess its just a matter of preference, but I see that no way Cobb is better. In a 3 player keeper league I want the absolute 3 best players I can possible keep and there is no one that can touch Julio, Charles, Shady.
Julio is a better talent and has more proven production. The only argument that I can see being made for Cobb is that he is less of a health risk, but really how much less when he missed all of last year and is a smaller slot receiver who is also exposed to extra hits since he also returns kicks.
Julio has the potential to end the season as the #1 fantasy WR in any given year and I don't see Cobb having that upside. And don't get me wrong, I love Cobb as a high end #2 WR and I have him on a few of my re-draft teams already, but hes not Julio.Tone_E likes this. -
Is there any room for negotiation in Cobb + 3rd for Charles? Are you able to get a pick back? Maybe like a 7th or something (which is essentially a 10th and a good place to grab a nice flyer).
Tone_E likes this. -
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Kinda figured he wouldn't trade Charles. Why would he when with Lacy and brink he has basically what you're trying to do except with an elite TE.... Lol. Never hurts to try though. I'd move on to another target...seed if he is willing to move Lacy for jones or see who has a Doug Martin and flip jones for Martin and maybe a late pick
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Matt, can you imagine if we had this same keeper league discussion after Julio was drafted that revolved around the knowledge of screws in his feet, and then the opposition tells us "LOL you're crazy to be concerned about it"..... and then BAM, he snaps the screws 2 years later and spends 11 games on IR. That's how silly the "lol youre crazy" comment is. This has ALREADY happened once, and now the chances of re-injuring the foot [or suffering a new injury altogether like an achilles rupture] are likely higher than they were at the start of last season. But then again, I'm sure many fans argued that Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nick's fractured feet would be nothing to worry about, and they turned out fine, so what do we know. :shifty:Boik14 likes this. -
Would you all care to share the expert opinions that say there is a high likelyhood of Jones re fracturing his foot? Here are some actual doctors opinions...
The only argument that you could make is the marrow transplant is uncharted territory.Tone_E likes this. -
[video=youtube;s5Gj0gaGYJU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5Gj0gaGYJU[/video]
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As far as the doctors' quotes go:
- Ahmad Bradshaw fractured foot in 2011, re-injured in 2012, and hasn't been the same since.
- Hakeem Nicks' fractured foot in 2010 at 22, re-fractured at the ripe age of 24, and subsequently became a shell of his former self.
- Andre Brown's fractured foot in college, re-fractured the following year, then ruptured his achilles in that same foot the year after as a rookie..... followed by a fractured leg in 2012 that subsequently re-fractured in 2013.
- Chris Ivory's fractured foot in 2011, re-fractured in 2012 at 24 years old.
- Michael Crabtree's fractured foot in 2009, re-fractued in 2011, and then ruptured achilles in 2013.
- Demaryius Thomas's fractured foot in 2010 and re-fractured in 2011.
Here are a few others off the top of my head with reoccurring foot injuries:
- Darren McFadden's Lisfranc foot injury in 2011, injured the ankle on that foot in 2012, then re-injured the ankle in 2013. The #4 overall pick's career was over at 24 just one year removed from 1157 rushing yards, 507 receiving, and 10 TDs.
- Jacoby Ford's Lisfranc injury in 2011, re-injured it in 2012, and had it flare up again this year in training camp. His promising career was over before it could begin.
- Santonio Holmes' Lisfranc injury in in 2012, persistent foot issues in 2013. His career abruptly ended at 28 after looking like a stud the year prior.
Ummm...Ahmad Bradshaw? Hakeem Nicks? Andre Brown? Chris Ivory? That's 4 right there who weren't the same again. That's not including Crabtree's two seasons ruined from re-fracturing it and then rupturing the achilles in the same foot, just as Andre Brown did. I'm guessing the achilles tendon can tighten during the rehabilitation of a fractured foot and thus become more susceptible to rupturing during extreme physical activity.
Hell, let's look at Julio Jones' FULL football career the past 6 years:
2008: sports hernia injury [requiring offseason surgery] in game 5, compounded by wrist & shoulder injuries in game 8. He had 4 TDs through his first 5 games and then zero the rest of the season. Probably would've put him on IR in the NFL.
2009: Injured knee in game 2 which would've kept him out at least half the season in the NFL, if not landed him on IR. He was limited to 129 yards and 1 TD through 6 games during that span.
2010: Broken hand in game 6 that required surgery and pins. He would've been sidelined for at least 4 weeks in the NFL, if not landed on IR, especially after re-injured the same knee as 2009.
2011: missed 3 games from hamstring injury.
2012: played 16 games but was hindered by an injured hand at one point.
2013: 11 games on IR after re-injuring foot.
That's plausibly 4 of 6 seasons that might've ended on IR if it were all in the NFL. Now, besides this lengthy and concerning injury history that has hindered half of his career, there's his physical, intense style of play that places a great deal of stress on his body and is what's led to most of his injuries in the first place, if not all of them. So you're telling me that even though his style of play has resulted in a plethora of injuries and re-injuries that he's suddenly gonna become injury resistant despite 6 years suggesting otherwise?Tone_E likes this. -
lol ok, Im not even going to waste my time with your argument of "all foot injuries are the same". Because yeah, every football player will recover and play the same under a good ol generic "knee" surgery... they're all the same. But well done writing 5 pages about nothing :confused2: I should have known better than to take the opinion of a physician than Todd.
In the end, it was a pretty interesting white paper on ignoring my quest for a physicians viewpoint backing up your claim. Your sample size amusing as well listing the Giants magnificent offense. What was funny was that Andre Brown.. that leg injury.. fibula, just like your boy Cobb. Maybe I can start generalizing everything and blame non-productivity on that one. Or throw a Theismann comparison out there, why didnt he come back, lazy bastard haha
On a side note, I have a feeling Nicks may laugh at you at the end of the end of this season. And your "McFadden had 1154 yards off the top of my head" argument was pretty funny.
Anyways, I'm going to run along now and abandon debating like either one of us know the prognosis for the injury... I provided physicians opinions, you provided your own.. just make sure you trade me Julio for Cobb down the road. -
Yup, definitely apples to apples with Cobb. :unsure:
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The more I think about it, the more I wonder if my first (12th) and Julio isn't too much for Charles. It will leave me with two top three RBs and Randall Cobb as keepers and opens up my entire draft.
Or, I can target M. Ball, D. Martin, or D. Murray for Julio and keep my first. -
Forte is golden in a 1 pt Ppr. Martin and Murray have upside and could be better then last year. Ball could be 1100 and 7-10 td but could be higher or lower then that depending on his ability to stay on the field on 3rd down.
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I got Doug Martin. For some reason I have a bad feeling about Julio Jones, but am having remorse as well. Doug Martin is good with upside, but TB will suck and he will be facing a stacked box most of the times. Long term I think I'll win the trade though. I hope.
EDIT: We're 0.5 PPR.