Ajayi puts up 1500 hundie total...bet.

 

While it will be interesting to see how effective this new coaching staff will be and how this young team develops over the season. This entire season is about determining if Tannehill is the QB Gase wants to move forward with after the 2016 is over.

With the bulk of his money starting to be paid beginning with the 2017 season, Tannehill needs to prove to the coaching staff that he can take his game to the next level during the 2016 season.

While I don't see the Dolphins making the playoffs in 2016 and they will be fortunate to finish 6-10. Hopefully Tannehill and the offense will continue to grow as the season progresses and they will become the strength of this team in 2016 and in the future.

I still see the defense as a weakness. I think they remain a bottom 10 defense and it is going to take one or two more drafts before they are able to resolve the issues which remain at LB and in the secondary, IMO.

 

That article brought dog day journalism to a new low... I'd sooner let one of the child slaves from the Temple of Doom attempt a write up because that's how this article made me feel.

Nevermore, Russell Baxter...Nevermore.

 

if we finish 6-10 I don't see how you can keep the QB.

 

Yeah... it would be because of him. Since that is ALL the predictions might as well shed him now.

 

has there ever in the history of the NFL been a starting QB that led his team to 4 straight losing seasons that stayed as the staring QB?

 

If the QB is not the problem... the losing season part is not even relevant.

A bad defense and a weak OL/running game are NOT the QB's fault. I know I am talking to a wall right now tho.

 

Only famous guy I can think of is Dan Fouts, though he only started 6 games his first season:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FoutDa00.htm

 

Should have dumped the bum... it was all his fault they sucked.

 

Alex Smith too

His missed gametime after his rookie year was due to injuries.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03.htm

Under the mess of coaches he had in his first 5 years in his career he was 12 games under .500
Under good coaches (Harbaugh and Reid) for the last 5 years he is 34 games over .500

 

Why not ? Doughty saves ? Some other junior/senior right now is a better option for 2017 ? Gase's job?

 

This could be a new category to investigate in the clutch thing, 25 has a point, there may be a few exceptions, as a couple have been pointed out, but there is a big difference there.

Fouts and Smith were awful QBs their first 4 to 5 years, with horrible numbers, more INTs than TDs and bad QB ratings, but when they started playing better, the team started winning more.

In comparison, QB17 has been like a HoFer in first 4 years, way better numbers, a lot more TDs than INTs, decent QB ratings, but it doesn't end up getting anymore wins.

Fouts = 35TDs_51INTs_QBrating 63.9_first 5 years_43 starts
Smith = 51TDs_53INTs_QBrating 67.2_first 5 years_50 starts

QB17 = 87TDs_54INTs_QBrating 85.2_first 4 years_64 starts

As soon as the other 2 QBs started putting up good numbers the team started winning, while the past 2 seasons QB17 has put up good numbers, but it hasn't translated to wins, and imo, and something I've been saying for a couple years, he plays poorly in pressure situations, which is why his good numbers haven't translated into wins.

 

Strange thing is that with the numbers I ran 4th Quarter passing had the best correlation to win%

Aaron Rodgers 106.9; 57.1%
Tony Romo 103.8; 63.0%
Russel Wilson 103.1; 48.4%
Cam Newton 100.1; 53.7%
Carson Palmer 98.1; 68.4%
Jay Cutler 97.5; 44.4%
Tom Brady 87.4; 61.3%
Andy Dalton 95.4; 67.3%
Ben Roethlisberger 95.0; 46.4%
Peyton Manning 92.08; 65%
Joe Flacco 89.9; 45.7%
Drew Brees 89.1; 53.3%
Andrew Luck 86.8; 74.1%
Philip Rivers 86.6; 39.4%
Matt Ryan 85.88; 50.0%
Matt Stafford 84.8; 45.7%
Alex Smith 88.62; 54.8%
Ryan Fitzpatric 82.08; 37.0%
Eli Manning 81.1; 33.3%
Ryan Tannehill 78.4; 48.3%

Tannehill is actually outperforming his win% according to what you would expect from his 4th Q numbers, and if you look at it in year to year numbers it dropped like a stone after his rookie year, but then has been steadily climbing.

 

I don't think there's much of a mystery here. Tannehill's numbers, whether you look at Y/A, TD%, INT%, passer rating, comp %, etc.. hover around league average (more stats are a bit above, some a bit below). So first of all it's no surprise a statistically average QB has essentially a 50% win rate.

We also know both from some passing stats and the eye test he's not as good in clutch situations as many other starting QB's. Just means he must be a bit above average in non-clutch situations to be average overall. Put it all together and you have unsurprisingly a below average 4th quarter rating and 50% win rate.

Nothing worth over-thinking here IMO.

 

if by a wall you mean every NFL GM in the history of the NFL. yeah you are right.

 

you seem to think teams never draft new QB's or replace QB's? Do you live in a Dolphins bubble only?

 

in only 1 of those first 5 years did he start more then 10 games, so he was not full time starter or something. And he was drafted to a really bad team. The Dolphins were picked by many to go to Super Bowl in Tannehills tenure, that does not equate to a team being bad.

 

He was the starter in those years. He wasn't benched, as far as I can find out. The seasons he played less than 16 games were injury related, except for the year he was replaced by Kapernick. And that was one of his good years (100 plus rating, 6-2 record before injury).