I know Dan Marino on the boards here will jump all over me for this one, but I had to post this. Look, I know the defense sucked. But I think this team needs some Juice on offense. In our 6 losses last year we scored:10,24,7,17,6,14 or 13 per. The yards were: 214,457,222,200,277,280 or 275 per. Our first down differential was -10,-6,-11,-15,-12-6 or -10 per.
There is a stink to this offense and I believe that no one here should be satisfied with the offseason and talent. We have potential, that's it. We also have very-injury-prone players, and in this league, it doesn't matter how good your defense is, it is who gets the ball last. I think year two of Gase is a come-to-Jesus year on offense. I think this is the year we have to have all the pieces in place on offense to properly evaluate the qb. I'm not here to bash Tannehill. We have to move the ball and eat minutes, yards and points like PacMan. How many times do we see this offense self-destruct during critical times in a game? The cold truth is Parker is not an Alpha, we still need that. I want to be proven wrong. The truth is Jarvis is over-utilized. The truth is Thomas can't stay healthy, as for Drake. The truth is Ajayi is not the best receiving back. The truth is, if Stills is your only deep threat, teams can take him out. This team is starving for an offensive play maker, and someone who is so versatile, they create match up issues. I hope Miami pulls it off, and if one of the TE's are there, or McCaffrey or Cook or Davis or Ross, they select them. We need to score 14 points more a game. Despite a porous defense, the opportunity was there for this team to do that last year and they failed.
Dan Marino, go ahead and pulverize me
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danmarino likes this.
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lol..I think we agree on this more than we disagree.
However, I think the only offensive player I'd take in the 1st round is Howard. That's not to say that I feel like the offense doesn't have any holes to fill, I just think defensive holes are bigger right now. -
"in this league, it doesn't matter how good your defense is, it is who gets the ball last."
This is very wrong, lol, just really, really wrong, no offense, but it's kind of comical.finsfandan likes this. -
This team has too many holes to be trading up or deciding to favor either side of the ball. They should stay where they're at and pick BPA. We're lucky Tunsil fell to us last time, maybe something similar can happen. We should set up our own WikiLeaks on players to make it happen.
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you missed the super bowl, huh?
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I forgot we play for championship games, not titles
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I think you're looking at a result and backwards engineering the problem from that result.
A good portion of the games we lost last year were in the beginning fo the season when we were literally learning a new offense and Gase was learning his team and how to be both a HC/OC.
We were 30th in rushing yards allowed. That means our offense didn't have a lot of time to score let alone get into a rhythm.
When we learned our offense and had a decent amount of defensive starters, our offense was above average.danmarino likes this. -
what's comical are your replies. if you hate us fins fans so much, you closet Pats fans, go post elsewhereLI phinfan and danmarino like this.
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better yet, don't reply to anything I post. can you ignore posters?
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DirtyLandry,
Your points are absolutely valid and worth considering. I wouldn't mortgage the rest of our remaining picks to move up because the defense has so many holes, but if elite offensive talent slipped to use *cough*Howard*cough*, I would certainly be open to selecting an offensive player. And even that would be predicated on who is available on defense.
I think that because we have a decent amount of holes to fill but these positions happen to be deep, we should let the draft come to us. For the first time in quite some time, there are a lot of different ways in which we could have a successful draft.
I think we should plan to be flexible and plan for many different scenarios. -
I am definitely opposed to trading up, however, I trust Miami. We have to nail this draft, with the entire 2013 class gone. We also need Parker, Drake and Howard to make significant strides. Imagine the endless opportunities we would have if Parker was a true Alpha and Drake gives us versatiltydanmarino likes this. -
This team will live and die by Ajayi. Thank God we have Tunsil to replace Albert. Aside from guard, I'm only worried about Pouncey's inevitable injury. I'm much more worried about the defense. That being said, I'd stay at 22 and draft BPA. If it's a tossup, I'd lean towards the defensive player.
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After Ajayi gave opposing defenses a reason to hone in on him. He led the NFL in missed tackles. He led the NFL in YPC against 8 man boxes. He was the 4th leading rusher in the NFL despite only getting 0, 5, 7, and 6 attempts the first 4 games of the season. The Dolphins didn't lose when he got at least 16 carries except one time.
So yeah, he's pretty damn important. But of course you're a contrarian and I'm gonna be accused of derailing the thread, again. -
Cbrad or Pauly can do some searching, but based off all the data I've sifted through, I don't think there's a stronger win correlation than Ajayi's touches. When he had 16+ touches, they went 9-1. It all began with back to back 200+ yard performances. That's what forced Gase to give him the touches he deserved. So I'll stand by my claim that they'll live and die by how many touches he can get until I'm proven otherwise.
Back to the original point of the thread, I'd go BPA at 22 regardless of position. All else equal, I go defense. If it's definitely offense and a guard is in the mix, I go that way. -
Something amazing happened in 2016. There was a PERFECT correlation between Cam Wake's ability to get at least 0.5 sacks in a game and whether we won that game, including the playoff game. Check it out:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WakeCa00/gamelog/2016/
Every game he didn't get at least half a sack, we lost.. and every game he got at least half a sack, we won.finsfandan likes this. -
Wow, great find. That's 10-0 over 9-1. Good thing I have two Wake jerseys. After this fullstack program, I'm getting myself an Ajayi and possibly Jones jersey.
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It's actually 17-0 vs. 14-3 if you include the playoff game and cases where Ajayi didn't have 16+ attempts and we won.
But yeah.. so happy we have both guys. I was one of those that thought Wake was over the hill.. shows you why I shouldn't be a GM (well.. to be fair so many GM's make stupid moves too).finsfandan likes this. -
How is it 17-0 vs 14-3? We only won 10 total games.
I thought that achilles would kill his greatest asset, his explosiveness. Idk how he recovered from that at his age and that weight. -
Actually it's 17-0 to 13-3 sorry.. didn't realize Ajayi didn't play in all 16 regular season games.
In any case, with correlations (technically a "13-3" or "9-1" isn't a correlation but let's ignore that for a moment), you're basically asking what the predictive power of some variable is. This means you have to look at 4 cases:
1) condition X occurs and we win
2) condition X occurs but we do not win
3) condition X does not occur and we win
4) condition X does not occur and we do not win
Correlation is higher the more #1 and #4 you have.
So, with Ajayi he had 10 regular season games where he had at least 16 attempts. As you point out 9 of those satisfy #1 and 1 satisfies #2. Of the 5 remaining games where he didn't have 16 or more attempts, we lost 4 of them (#4) and won 1 of them (#3). Add the playoff game where he had 16 attempts and we didn't win (#3) and you get a total of 13-3.
A true correlation would reduce that to a single number between -1 and 1 but that's beside the point for now.finsfandan likes this. -
At this time of night, I'll take your word for it without Googling win correlation lol
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