I can still remember the tons of LOL's that came my way last season when we were 1-5 and I predicted that we were about to win the next six straight games. Looking back, it really wasn't that bold of a prediction because we were playing some truly horrid teams that happened to also be at the low point of their season. For instance, we caught Pitt at the perfect time and it's the only reason we were able to "turn around" the season in such spectacular form. We don't have that luxury this year though- we must start fast since the schedule gets brutal down the stretch.

For 2017, we have a very strange schedule- a bye in week 11 (just before @NE), several "easy" games early, plus the Bills and Pats twice down the stretch. I really think it all plays to our favor though since we seem to have a little extra time before each must-win tough match-up. In fact, I could realistically see us starting the year 5-0, dropping one to the Falcons and then rattling off four more wins before cruising into the bye.

Yes Fin fans, a 9-1 start is a legit possibility for this season.

Week by Week Predictions-

Weeks 1-3-
It's also just as possible for us to close out the year 2-4 or 1-5 though, so that fast start is going to define who this franchise is as a team. If we start slow then the best we can possibly hope for is going to be 8-8 (or worse), so those Bucks, Chargers and Jets games are CRUCIAL in every possible way. We must start the season 3-0 and I believe that we do....although the Bucs are not going to make it easy.

Weeks 4-6-
The Saints, Titans and Falcons stretch of the schedule is the first real challenge- how will we fare against three "could-be contender" teams that are on the bubble just like us? I like our chances against the Saints and Titans, but I do think we pick up our first loss of the year in this grouping to Atlanta...possibly even two in the L column if Brees has a signature day.

Glorious Week 7-
Week 7 has the Jets- God bless NY for gutting their roster so spectacularly since it's as close as you can get to a bye week while still playing in the NFL. This will be our rebound game where we put up a billion points and people start really paying attention. We're scheduled for 1 PM but watch for the networks to bump this one to 4:15.

Weeks 8-10
Ravens, Raiders and Panthers- three games I would have said are losses in 2016 or earlier. Carolina always worries me with their explosive offense but I think they'll have another down season, and I think we topple the Raiders as well. Think of that Ravens game as our first playoff contest because that's essentially what it is....it's a must-win game. We go 2-1 in this stretch to bring the team to 7-3.

Weeks 11-14 (with week 11 bye)
Game 12- at NE. The game every Dolfan marks on his calendar and pouts about for months before it actually happens. I have a good feeling that we come out of the bye and take care of business in Gilette, although we will likely slide in week 14 at home against the Pats. I see us splitting with the Pats overall, but I think we make a statement against the Broncos in between. We will scrape out 2-1 in this stretch as well.

Weeks 15-17
During the final three weeks, the Chiefs are going to be playing for seeding just like we are. I think they get the nod in this match-up, and I think the Bills also play us tougher than many expected them to. We will close the season at 11-5 and take the 2nd or 5th seed in the AFC (depending on the Pat's final record...because both of us will sweep the Jets and Bills).

That's going to make the spoilers (those stinkin' Jets and Bills) crucial this season- one of them usually steals a game that they have no business winning. If either of them split with NE then 11-5 gives us the division....possibly even 10-6.

I also believe that Ajayi becomes a household name this season with solid, consistent running and a great counter-balance to Cutler. I also think Jay Cutler gets the "comeback player of the year" award due to his unique story...although his numbers will be eerily similar to RT's from 2016. A few less fumbles, a few more picks, and he's going to approach the 30 TD mark.

Playoffs
This season, I think we draw the Chiefs in the first round and we gain some redemption, then face off against NE in round two for AFC supremacy. This is where my prediction ends but I think you'll see a very different Dolphins team in the playoffs. I am buying into the hype and saying a SB appearance is not out of the question.

Opponent Strength Categories-

The "Gimmie" Games- The Jets may win 3 games this season...their roster is at an all-time low so they're the Cleveland of 2017. Honestly, the Bills are not that much better and we should be 4-0 in those games. Other "gimmies" would include the Bucs, Chargers and Saints- these aren't definite but they are games we should win. That puts us at 7-0.

The Slaughterhouse Games- Teams we shouldn't beat- let's go with the Broncos, Chiefs and throw in the Ravens for good measure (we can never beat the darn Ravens). That has us at 7-3. Maybe the Falcons belong in this category as well, but I left them out since the Ravens are more our kryptonite than an "unbeatable" team.

The Questionable Games- That leaves the Titans, Raiders, Panthers and Falcons (or swap Atlanta for the Ravens)...four "middle of the road" teams that we don't always match well with. Let's say we split these games and go 2-2, which brings us to 9-5 overall.

Those Cheating, Stinkin' Pats- Then there's the Pats- can we finally sweep them? If so, 11-5 may be enough to take the division...I think this is finally the year where NE starts to show some cracks in their armor- I'm picking them for 10 wins total. So a series split with us ending at 10-6 probably nods NE's way. Two losses is also entirely possible....9-7 and hoping to luck into a final wildcard spot.

Final 2017 Summary-

In many regards, this entire season will come down to how we handle NE in our THREE match-ups; twice in the regular season and a 3rd time in the 2nd round of the playoffs. I see us as an 11-5 or 12-4 team IF Cutler stays healthy and the defense can stop the run...two very big "if's" for any team. If we see 6+ games with Moore at the helm and/or lousy defensive performances, then I'd put us closer to a 9-7 year.

My magic number for the year is 27...I think that will be our offensive average in points for the season. In any game the D holds to 26 or less, we win those games. Everything else is a shootout and I don't love our odds with a young team minus RT. I think Cutler will be sensational this year but he's not the guy I want with the ball when we're down by 5 with a minute left. Like Moore, he's going to launch one and hope for the best...who knows what happens?! It should be a fun year though Dol-fans!

 

Well, the good news is that we have to be better at stopping the run since we were among the worst in 2016. Remember though, that was with two 2nd string LB's and an injured Alonzo. Timmons looks to be a massive upgrade and with Kiko healthy, I see that paying huge dividends. Also, we may not be "better" up front in run-D but we are younger and a little faster, so hopefully that swings in our favor as well.

If I had to guess, I'd peg us somewhere in the 15-20 range for run defense in 2017. Nothing to brag about yet a whole lot better than last season. And if you think about the six games we did lose (especially down the stretch to the Ravens and Pats), they ran all over us in the 4th quarter to milk that clock. I don't care if we give up 150 on the ground in the first three quarters....as long as our boys can tighten down when the game is on the line and we need one more possession. That's what I was seeing/hoping for when I made the prediction anyway.

 

Um, how about last year when RT put up 35 points in the 2nd half and Belichek looked like he was having a panic attack on the sidelines? We did lose that game but it definitely wasn't the same old Pats or the same old Fins. And if you look at our roster moves since then, we've advanced our talent quite a bit since then while the Pats are about the same- I think this is the year that the AFC East torch is passed back to Miami.

 

Well, we lost three of the first four games (on the field), somehow collected a win from one of them, and we still haven't played game 1 yet. Meanwhile, a hurricane makes our team flee their families, we traveled more than any team will this entire season, and the offense looks horrible because they just aren't in sync. Then there's the defense- pretty solid against the run and horrific against the pass. It's like an episode of Twilight Zone.

And that's the good news. =)

Seriously though, the real good news is that we're 1 game out of first place and the real race in the AFC is to keep pace with the Patriots. So despite all the doom and gloom, it's waaaaaaaaaay to early for comments like, "The team sucks, the coach sucks, the QB sucks, etc." We got our *** kicked on the road....which is fairly common in the NFL.

Some more good news is that the Titans are just as dysfunctional as us right now, so that's still a very winnable game. You'll notice that most of the talking heads picked us this week and they did so on the logic I just shared- this is a much better team than we're seeing on the field. Gase has sworn that it was a great week of practice and the team is back on track, but I really think we'll need another week or two in order to really turn this bus around.

Unless the defense or special teams makes a big play, I'm not sure that we beat the Titans. It's a toss up, a 50/50 jump ball....it can really go either way. If the real 2017 Dolphins emerge then we get a blowout....if it's the same group we've seen then maybe we squeak out a low scoring win.

If I had to guess, we lose to the Titans and the Falcons for a 1-4 start.

The Jets serve as a "bounce-back" game to grab our second win, but then the schedule turns ugly without that bye still in place. Over that last 10 contests, we might be lucky to pick up 4 or 5 wins? I do see this team turning things around but it's likely going to be too little, too late. I think 7-9 is about the best we can hope for at this point....but we're more likely looking at 5-11 or 6-10.

Tomorrow's game is a must-win for all the wrong reasons...but that's how bad we need a confidence boost right now. I still think a big part of this season's success will come down to Gase and the play calling; he has to start stepping out of his own comfort zone and giving Cutler chances to win or lose the ballgame. And if Cutler chokes, then so be it....but I'd almost rather see a pick on 3rd and 8 instead of a screen pass that the Eskimos in Alaska can see coming.

One last note- the folks who say that our line sucks are not really watching film...they have been a lot better than folks give them credit for. The opportunities are there to win these ballgames; we just need to get out of our own way and win them. This is not the time to ride the J-train and hope for the best...we need to trust our QB/receivers and get to work. It could still be a 10-win season but it's going to be one heck of a bumpy road to get there. I just can't see it at this point unless we really unleash on the Titan's tomorrow.

 

Since BPK called me out on blowing my predictions so far this season, I figured I'd call myself out on finally getting one right. The defense majorly saved our butts today. They made about a half-dozen huge plays and we squeaked it out. =)

 

You're absolutely right- it's a catch 22 no matter how you look at it. But at the same time, everyone knows we love screen passes and they practice to defend it all week long. When is the last time we even gained a yard on one of those plays? The way I see it, there's little to lose letting it rip if we're wasting a down anyway. That's why I said maybe some quick slants...at least we get 2-3 yards out of a quick stop there.