Of course every fan's goal (or fantasy?) is to haul in a large number of future stars in every draft. Unfortunately this is far from the reality as it occurs.
The reality is that a very small percentage of players drafted beyond about the middle of the second round go on to contribute significantly in the NFL. Sure there are gems drafted later, but they represent the very small exception to the rule.
In the first and second rounds, we're typically dealing with players the scouts and draftniks have agreed upon as likely to contribute significantly in the NFL. There is typically little variation among scouts and draftniks in their appraisals of these players. You won't find, for example, a scout who believes Dion Jordan will be an all-pro, and another scout who thinks he won't be a starter. There isn't that much variation among their appraisals of these players when we're talking about surefire good players at the NFL level.
That variation tends to increase tremendously as we approach and enter the third round, where players begin to be chosen who some believe have starter or better potential, and others believe have more marginal talent.
This phenomenon interacts with NFL fanbases who have typically acquired only two new and exciting players (their first- and second-round picks) by that time in the draft. NFL fans don't enter drafts wanting only two new and exciting players. We want more than that.
So what happens as the third and fourth rounds ensue is that fans target specific remaining players they believe are going to be those unlikely gems, those exceptions to the rule noted above. What is forgotten is that the draft at that point has become much more of a crapshoot than in the previous two rounds. These "later gems" are fans' solution to that. They allow fans to believe they can still come out of the draft with a big ol' haul of players who will improve their team.
What this translates to is the overestimation of the importance of the middle rounds, and an overestimation of the differences among the players picked in that range. For example, Terron Armstead, taken two spots above Dallas Thomas, is perhaps seen as a "much better" pick. What isn't appreciated at that point is the significantly wider variation in the appraisals of these players taken at this point, as well as the fact that these players overall are unlikely to contribute significantly in the NFL.
In other words, the difference between Terron Armstead and Dallas Thomas, in terms of their quality and their likelihood of contributing significantly in the NFL, is likely meaningless, though that perceived "difference" is put on steroids by player-hungry fans who have overestimated these differences as part of the fantasy that their team is going to come out of the draft with a great haul of players.
Expect this phenomenon to continue today with even greater strength as we enter the fourth round, due to the fact that disappointment with earlier picks has likely set in among a good segment of the fans, who then want these later round players (these perceived "gems") to compensate for their let down. For example, the fourth round may be viewed as a success only if the third round can be "corrected" with the drafting of Ryan Swope.
Embedded in that perception, however, while simultaneously ignored, is that Ryan Swope was passed on by every team in the league at least several times. So we're dealing with a player who, in fantasy, is viewed as the savior for the third round, but in reality is very unlikely to make a significant contribution at the NFL level. As was noted above, there is also considerably wider variation in the appraisals of Ryan Swope among scouts and other experts, which further dilutes his standing as a surefire prospect. Yet we persist in the fantasy that he will be our "gem."
This is what we're all susceptible to as we drown ourselves in the three days of the year known as the NFL draft. It's largely a fantasy situation that's spurred by a huge industry of scouts, draftniks, TV pundits, YouTube clips, the NFL combine, and message boards, and what's forgotten as we collectively ride this rollercoaster is that the typical results of the draft for a given team, in terms of future improvement, are relatively meager.
But enjoy! ;)
Page 1 of 2
-
-
Idk what point you're trying to make about this so called 'phenomenon'. Nobody is reaching for more stars because we aren't happy with our current haul or whatever psychological nonsense you're talking about. We want Swope because he runs a 4.34 has a repoir with Tanne and had a massive statistical season with him in his last year at A&M. People want more playmakers and it has nothing to do with the picks in rnds 1 2 and 3 besides the fact that they change what positions were targeting. Nobody is making these picks out to be saviors. In fact, people are nowhere near as dull as you make us out to be. The fact that we would rather take a risk on a boom or bust guy than a solid but no chance of ever being great guy is purely because we don't take any risk associated with a pick busting.
Just my opinion. -
-
-
As for the draft, it's simply uncertainty being projected into a process that offers no certainty other than a name of a 21 or 22 yr old's name on a TV screen.
This causes angst. -
-
I Look at it from completely the opposite side. Insofar as intelligence lets you make quicker decisions and possibly gain some more depth on the players techniques etc I feel as if it has little to no bearing on the ability to pick mid to late round draft selections. Because of the overall uncertainty of those prospects it usually ends up being more football knowledge(nothing to do with iq) and luck.
I don't think it takes an understanding of the dynamics you outlined in the original post because to be honest I don't think they impact as many people as you believe. Most people just want certain prospects for one reason or another but even idiots know that late round picks are a crapshoot.
Ryan Swope may end up being a top 5 receiver in the league none of us know. If he does however it doesn't mean that the fans clamoring for him were right and he was always going to be a savior it just means that he panned out. IT also doesn't mean the gm's were wrong for passing up for him. They have an entirely different consequence form taking a player with concussion history. -
Why do I suddenly feel as though I need Euclidean proofs to watch the draft? I failed geometry.
It's a lottery. We get to side on a ticket. It's entertainment. Nothing more. Side with a ticket and it gets picked, you feel good, especially this late in the draft wherein there lies a "considerably wider variation in the appraisals". Side with a ticket, it gets picked, goes on to do well; you feel even better. Side with a ticket, it gets picked, goes on to do well and become a star; you're the man. Added bonus- phenomenal for our beloved Dolphins.
I appreciate you Shou but IMO, that was a long way to go to describe common knowledge.
Pick a ticket. Any ticket. Promote it with a passion. What's the harm? You might hit the jackpot for us.2k5 and NolesNPhinsFan like this. -
In essence a single player or a single draft pick is determined to have far more value than they do in reality, and our appraisals of them, in terms of the future contribution to the team they're likely to make, are given a far greater precision than is warranted by the situation.His'nBeatYour'n likes this. -
In other words, it may be "common human knowledge" that all of this has very little meaning or significance beyond the second round, but that isn't the reality we wrap ourselves into as we watch this thing unfold and allow the fantasy to take us over. -
-
I did a statistical analysis once of where you would find your future HOFers in the draft. And basically the top 5 is where you want to be, As an aside #4 overall historically has better record than #3 overall. After that it is a steady downhill slope. And once you get past the 3rd round your chance of finding a pro-bowl calibre player is blind luck, at least from a statistical viewpoint.
So for all the comments about finding great physical specimens or whatever, day 3 of the draft is about finding role fillers and rotation depth. For late round HOF quality gems the phins have found Jake Scott and Zach Thomas in ~50 years of drafting, and that is much higher than average in the NFL.
If we can find one adequate starter or significant backup on day 3 then that will be a good draft by historical standards.DevilFin13 and shouright like this. -
DPlus47 likes this.
-
^^^ This guy gets it
-
So sure, stake the horse, but don't pretend the finish line is today, and don't pretend your team is being run by buffoons when your horse isn't chosen. If you're taking the relaxed, realistic approach and choosing a horse only to make it interesting, then react with the same relaxation and disinterest when your horse isn't selected. -
I think you wrote a long post that could be summarized as 'people like to be right'
-
Nice effort but Cam Wake, Reshad Jones, & Brian Hartline say hello.
So does Lamar Miller (4th round)
Brent Grimes (undrafted)
Dannell Ellerbe (undrafted)
Paul Soliai (4th)
Philip Wheeler (nearly a 4th rounder)
Chris Clemons (6th)
.... and that's just starters from our team.
Don't come in here all uppity-like telling us we live in a fantasy. These guys happen, and there's not a damn thing wrong with hoping that our pulls of the slot in these later rounds ends in a furry of ringing bells and whistles like another 4th round Brandon Marshall, an Arian Foster, or a Victor Cruz.
or Pro Bowlers Aaron Hernandez, Geno Atkins, Kam Chancellor, Elvis Dumervil, Henry Melton, Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans, Antonio Brown, Dashon Goldson, Jermon Bushrod, Owen Daniels, Kyle Williams, Courtland Finnegan, Antoine Bethea, Tramon Williams, Miles Austin. And that's just since 2006. That's part of the joy of this process, hoping the unlikely becomes the likely and surprises us all.MrClean and Fin-Omenal like this. -
inFINSible, His'nBeatYour'n and unluckyluciano like this. -
-
"Man who likes to self promote his intellect, is clearly lacking in many other areas in life"
-FinomenalPhinFan1968, MrClean, ToddPhin and 1 other person like this. -
Nice...
Phins just Gillislee.
He's gonna be way better than Reggie Bush, Ireland you are a GENUIS sir. -
Sturgis, YES!!!
He will be Sooo much better than Carpenter. -
djphinfan, inFINSible and shouright like this.
-
-
-
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
So then he should just say it...... -
-
It's a date sunshine.NolesNPhinsFan likes this. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
MrClean and NolesNPhinsFan like this. -
-
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
-
I think it would be interesting to learn just how far Ireland, as GM, and current prognostigator of our contributing talent base, goes out of his way to ensuring the majority of his "ill advised" draft picks, last long enough to contribute, even to some meager degree?
Enough simply to get noticed by the fan base, of at least making a few plays during the regular season?
Since he ultimately remains responsible for finding yet another to fill the position, it could be in his best interests to at least stall, until his former lackluster pick, either produces enough to justify Ireland's ability to continue selecting them for us, or fails miserably, in which case the primary interest of fans, then turns to merely seeing the player gone.
I'm sure every GM is guilty of this to some degree, but it wouldn't surprise me if Ireland had highly exceptional control over this during Sparano's tenure, however that things have changed under Philbin.
Page 1 of 2