Who's top of the AFC hunters?
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So we would like to see the Steelers win Thursday against a Luck-less Colts right? Steelers are behind us a game and a half basically since we won head to head....
However, with the way the AFC is shaping up, if multiple teams are tied I think head to head is thrown out the window and it comes down to conference or common opponents.....crazy year. -
Barry Jackson has a helpful summary:
"In six exhilarating weeks, the Dolphins have gone from having one of the five best chances of procuring the No. 1 overall draft pick to controlling their own playoff destiny.
Though Miami wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today, they have a much easier schedule than the two teams they’re chasing, Kansas City and Denver.
What’s more, the Chiefs and Broncos play each other twice, including Sunday night in Denver. Those two teams currently own the AFC’s two wild card spots at 7-3, one game ahead of 6-4 Miami, which is seventh in the conference.
The Dolphins have a 45.8 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to www.makenflplayoffs.com. A few points to keep in mind as the Dolphins prepare for a playoff stretch run:
• Of the Dolphins’ final six opponents, only New England – which visits Miami in the Jan. 1 finale – has a winning record. And the Patriots (8-2) might be inclined to rest some starters if they have clinched the AFC East and the conference’s best record by that point.
Miami’s next five games: San Francisco (1-9), at Baltimore (5-5), vs. Arizona (4-5-1), at the Jets (3-7) and at the Bills (5-5).
If teams haven’t played each other, then conference record is the tiebreaker used to break ties between non-division opponents for wild-card berths. Record against common opponents (minimum four) would be used as the next criteria if needed.
• Whereas remaining Dolphins opponents have won only 43.3 percent of their games, the Chiefs’ and Broncos’ remaining opponents have each won 60.6 percent of their games.
After playing at Denver, the Chiefs must play four more games against playoff contenders: at Atlanta, Oakland, Tennessee and Denver, before finishing at San Diego.
The Broncos, after hosting the Chiefs, visit Jacksonville and Tennessee, host New England, go to Kansas City and finish at home against Oakland.
• Among wild card contenders who are trailing the Dolphins in the standings, the Steelers (5-5) and Bills (5-5) have the easiest schedules. Pittsburgh’s remaining opponents have a 40.9 winning percentage and Buffalo’s opponents have a 39.3 winning percentage. The primary reason for that: Both teams have a game remaining against 0-11 Cleveland.
But the Steelers and Bills also play each other, in Pittsburgh. Buffalo must still go to Oakland, and the Steelers’ next four games are at least somewhat difficult: at Indianapolis, the Giants, at Buffalo and at Cincinnati.
Miami owns the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh by virtue of a head-to-head win. The Dolphins own the tiebreaker with Buffalo, but that could change if the Bills beat Miami on Dec. 24 in Buffalo, and if the Bills (1-3 in the AFC East) finish with a better division record than Miami (2-1 in the AFC East).
• Indianapolis (5-5), which trails Houston in the AFC South race, has a more difficult schedule than the Dolphins, with remaining opponents holding a winning percentage of .500. The Colts must still go to Minnesota and to Oakland.
• Tennessee (5-6), which owns a two-team tiebreaker over Miami, has only five games left: at Chicago, Denver, at Kansas City, at Jacksonville and Houston." -
awesome post thanks!
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That's what I was saying the other week- KC and Denver won't both take the wild card. Even if they split their games against each other, there's a hard road ahead and one of them will take an additional loss. The odds of that not happening would be astronomical. They both play Oakland once more too. One of the three have to collapse, and we're hoping it's not the Raiders since they're a game up on everyone else.
We're basically rooting for one of those three teams to win out within their division....it doesn't matter which....and that makes us the #6 seed by default today. Because while it doesn't show on paper in the "if the season ended today" scenario, we know the season doesn't end today and there HAS TO BE 4 losses still within that division. It's guaranteed....and we're not even looking at tough opponents outside of their division yet.
So we have one simple goal...win and we're in.smckenna3 likes this. -
It's a good reference article, but Jackson is wrong about us controlling our own destiny, even if KC and us win this week, that would put us as 6th place as the final WC team, but we still wouldn't control our own destiny, as strange as that seems it's true.Last edited: Nov 22, 2016
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Not being a smart *** but do you have the facts to back that up? Denver would have 5 losses if they lose to KC twice....
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Pretty sure we control our own destiny by virtue of Denver and New England still having to play.
If NE win we can catch Denver for the WC and if Denver win we can catch NE for the division.
I think.
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I was talking about this week, and looking back at my post I see I didn't make that clear.
Jackson said we controlled our own destiny, I was just pointing out that even if Denver lost and we won, we still wouldn't control our own destiny even after this week, so Jackson is way jumping the gun on that statement. -
No he's not....the two teams in front of us by 1 game, play each other twice still, so they're going to lose, and if we win out we get a playoff spot, that's controlling our own destiny.
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I don't think that's true. If we win out we're at 12-4. Suppose KC and Denver split and otherwise win out so they're 12-4 also. This means the Raiders are also 12-4 LOL. So we now go to tiebreakers:
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
Whoever the division winner is, the other two have 5-3 conference record, just like we do. So it goes to common games with a minimum of 4. Under this scenario it looks like we lose because with Oakland, the 4 common games are: Chargers, Titans, Buffalo, Ravens, and we lost 2 while they win all 4. With KC the 4 common games are: Chargers, Titans, Steelers, Jets, and we lost 2 while they win 3. Finally, with Denver the 4 common games are: Chargers, Titans, Bengals, Patriots. Again, we lose 2 while they win 3.
At least that's how I'm seeing it right now. -
In this scenario though, the Patriots are also 12-4 (losses to us and Denver). We would win the division based on the divisional record tiebreaker (5-1 vs 4-2).
So we wouldn't care about tiebreakers with KC and Denver
Sent from my SM-G930F using TapatalkUnlucky 13, Brasfin, SICK and 3 others like this. -
Not going to fall for this. Please, Dolphins fans let not look ahead at all! I still don't expect us to make the playoffs we just started to awful. We have a patchwork OLINE again as well. We need to play one week at a time and let things fall where they fall. I don't see us winning out. I see at least 2 losses probably 3 which puts us right back at 9-7 where we always seem to find ourselves.
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We do lol. Barry Jackson isn't going to just throw **** against the wall, he's not Omar Kelly, folks!
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Great point, but I would offer this in this scenario, if NE is 12-3 and we are 11-4 going into that last game, then the hope of them resting players goes right out the window.
So in this scenario, if we are to win out, we will have to beat NE straight up, with a playoff spot on the line, and to say that is unlikely is a huge understatement.
If we go into that game at 11-4, I will be absolutely ecstatic, playoffs or no playoffs.Unlucky 13 likes this. -
The point is "controlling your own destiny" means you don't have to need someone to lose, you win you're in. You control it. And we do.LI phinfan likes this.
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The fact is we control our own destiny. period. Ask him why he didn't use every scenario imaginable.
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But the both have to play Oakland as well. So if they split and they both beat Oakland, then we're tied with the Raiders with a better conference record. No matter how you spin it, there will be four losses in that division to AFC opponents...which puts us in the 6th seed.
Out of the three, one wins the division and one takes #5 or 6...and that's fine. But it's mathematically impossible for all three to be in the conversation in week 17. -
"Come on dude, you said we don't control out own destiny, yet you left out the part where we actually LITERALLY do"
What do you want ME to say about BARRY JACKSON? He left out the division. However, he's point is correct. We control our own destiny.
@ him on twitter if you want answers.. -
Okay, but let's say the opposite is true....New England runs the table and takes the #1 seed. Then you're talking a scenario where we may have to do the exact same thing as the #6 wild card....so what's the difference?
I don't think this team fears NE in Miami anyway...at least not on the level they fear Gillette. So if we're going to have to beat them either way, I'd much rather it be at home for the division than on the road in the playoffs. -
That isn't how the tie break works though, 1st they would decide who wins that division, then the remanning 2 teams from that division would have a 3 way tie break with us.
But it's all mute, because in this scenario we win the div.Oghma likes this. -
Can't we just check back in two weeks?
Something tells me it will be a little clearer then. Patience people, patience.Superself, dolphin25, MonstBlitz and 1 other person like this. -
If we do that this place will be a ghost town! We are excited don't you tell me to hit the brakes!!!!!cbrad likes this.
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After experience and survive the last two decades of Dolphins Football I guess my heart can take everything on any given future Dolphins Gameday! Let us fans be excited and speculating. Let the Players be excited and focused on the next game.
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Was just looking through NFL records:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Football_League_records_(team)
If we make the playoffs, we actually tie the worst ever start after 5 games to make it with a 1-4 record. Other notes: Bengals in 1970 started 1-6 and made it, and Panthers were 3-8-1 after 12 games and made it in 2014!! -
I said that wrong...it's impossible for all three of the West teams to have the same record...four losses don't split evenly three ways, so someone will be behind us or tied with us.
It doesn't really matter either way though- the AFC is going to lose some games and this playoff picture is going to be completely different in 2-3 weeks from now.
My only point throughout this whole thing is that we are the #6 seed TODAY once you consider that those 3 teams are guaranteed 4 losses from playing each other- that's the only FACT that the playoff calculators don't take into account. Because whoever loses twice is behind us right now....regardless if we're tied with the Raiders or one game ahead of the other two.
Now, that doesn't mean that Indy can't still be around to make the 3-way tie scenario you mentioned, but they're not as of today. -
I'm not going to try and tell anyone to pump their breaks because I know it wouldn't do any good.
But man reading this thread is soooooo reminiscent of 2013 and the conversations we were having back then. I know this is a different team, different coach, etc. etc. But until this team puts a complete season together and makes the playoffs, I'll remain cautiously optimistic while fearing the return of the mediocre Dolphins. I know that makes me a *****, but I've been shell shocked into cowardice by years of mediocrity.dolphin25 likes this.
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