I know he is only one guy, but If we play the way Vegas and the National pundents think we will, I am curious to see how Minkah will respond to the Dolphins losing ways. Does Alabama dominate because physically they are bigger and faster than everyone else and have great team depth or is it because they are well coached and know how to prepare? It’s probably both, but I think it is more preparation. A bigger, faster guy does you no good if he doesn’t know what to do. That LB we got from the Saints helps prove that.

 

If Ryan tannehill stays healthy we aren’t winning 6 games or 2 or 3 or any of that other media nonsense.

It’s like the media has been in a bubble when it came to miamis qb play in 2017.

2 things we need as primary’s. Ryan tannehill stay healthy and stop the run cause our base d if teams force us into it looks ripe for pa exploitation at the lb level.

 

RT will probably be a little rusty, but when he gets used to the NFL speed and power, I expect him to have a breakout year. The guy has had a year to get ready. He knows what we have to do.

 

I just don't understand the viewpoint- Landry will not be missed. We made a lateral move on Pouncey. There's no replacing Suh but the LB corp should be so much better that it's almost a wash there as well...and Suh was never a game-changer to begin with. So I see a very similar team to our 10-6 run in 2016- with a better overall defense and offense. The only real variable here is Tannehill and the knee., but even if he starts slow we're still better off than with Cutler.

I honestly see only positive and could care less what the media says.

 

It may be comparing apples and oranges but I do seem to remember all of the discussion over Daunte Culpepper and Drew Brees when Saban wanted Brees over Culpepper and how Brees wasn’t going to be able to return to his former play. Well we all know how that turned out.

As long as the OL gives Tannehill time, I think there’s going to be a lot less rust than some believe there’s going to be

 

There's something in that viewpoint that I've been thinking about myself recently, is it worth comparing our team more to the playoff team of 2016 than to the Jay Cutler lead team of 2017? Surely 2016 is more the aim in terms of game plan and therefore wouldn't it make more sense to compare how our team matches up to that side than the team that was led to by a late addition band aid?

 

While we have made a good amount of roster turnover that fits our direction and properly addressed issues in the draft, it often doesn't lead to success; at least not immediately. I think that's were the doubt from the national media stems from. Past history is a solid predictor of future success and teams that are successful are rarely the ones burning and turning players to fit a new or changing philosophy. Though we saw a different story unfold in Philly last year, their quick avenue to a championship is not typical, and in fact is somewhat a rarity. But it can be done.

 

Sure, but which past history are we looking at? After the roster shake-up in 2016, Tannehill was a mid-90's rated QB that went on a 7-1 run before getting hurt. We beat the Pats at home in that stretch (under Moore) and then we dominated the Pats under Cutler in 2017....without Tannehill or our starting middle linebacker that the team was so pumped about, etc. So if we're looking at our history in the AFC East or even the AFC as a whole, I don't see a team in panic mode...I see a real contender.

You are right- the upgrades/moves at offensive line might end up being a net-zero; possibly no real gains or losses. But look what Drake did on the ground to close out the year....we don't need a massive gain to move the chains. We don't need Tannehill to take this incredible evolution either....we just need the same production we saw in 2016 for an entire season.

On the defensive side, it's almost impossible to say we didn't get better....but we lost most games last year on offensive production. So I think comparing this team to 2017 is a fool's errand because it's just not the same squad; the 2016 comparison is much closer to what we should expect. And I would say that we are better today than when RT went down late season in 2016- possibly much better.

Could we be an 8-8 squad? Sure. But we will be nowhere close to the 3rd worst team in the league like idiots are predicting. They're doing the math like this- we won 6 last year, lost Suh, Landry and Pouncey and those names are probably good for 2 or 3 wins. Who knows how good RT's knee is so he doesn't count as a positive or a negative; but he's definitely a liability. That makes us a 3-13 team........and that's an absolutely idiotic way to grade a team.

 

Pretty sure tanny was a 100 plus qbr during that stretch.

And Adam gase even said the first 5 games that tanny was one of the few plus grade players on the team.

I need a 95 plus qbr season from tanny in 2018. That includes the potential for rust early on.

 

If you are gonna drop a 80 qbr like cutler did the only way you are gonna compete for the postseason or get there is if you have the benefit of a top 5 d and running game.

And even then that level qb play will send you home at some point.

Miamis not gonna field a top d 5 or running game. It’s gonna be on tannehills shoulders.

 

Probably not a good thought considering it ended up being Culpeppers knee injury that kept him from being able to return to his former play..and we are obviously dealing with a knee injury.

 

In 2017 the Dolphins had a paser rating of 78.7, with Jay Cutlers 80.8 being the main contributor
In 2016 the Dolphins had a passer rating of 95.5 with Tannehill’s 93.5 being the main contributor.

That difference alone explains how 10-6 became 6-10.

The stats are a bit more complex, but both the 2017 and 2016 Dolphins got about 2 more wins than their statistical production suggested, so it’s not as if Ryan Tannehill’s team got lucky and Jay Cutler’s team were unlucky. The baseline should be that a healthy Tannehill is worth about +4 wins per year over a pulled out of retirement Jay Cutler.

I see it a bit like when Jay Ajayi got traded. The national media lost their heads, but informed local commentators saw where Ajayi wasn’t fitting in and had seen Kenyan Drake do well in his opportunities.

The media are treating it as if we lost the 2012 Pouncey, not the 2017 Pouncey with gimpy hips.
The media are forgetting that for all the fire and passion and highlight reel clips that Landry brought, the cold hard numbers show he wasn’t actually a game changer.
The media don”t seem to realise that Suh’s contract meant we had serious holes in other parts of the team, which meant we were fielding below average players at other positions.

As a fan I know that there are some significant “ifs” that have to turn in our favor.
- If Stitton and co will upgrade the OL.
- IF Tannehill returns from injury at similar levels to his 2014-2016 level of play.
- IF Raekwon Miller and the rookies upgrade our LB corps.
- IF Minkah Firzpatrick and Mike Gisecki can contribute immediately.

Plus the usual ifs about age affecting older players and the development of young players already on the roster.
However for the first time in a long time I feel pretty confident that the “ifs” are not long shots. For example I feel we have better depth at pretty well every position than we did when Philbin left. In the Philbin error any injury to a starter was potential disaster, but now we don’t have to rely on “if all our starters are healthy”, with the obvious exception of QB.

I also feel fairly comfortable that Gase is getting many things into the shape that he wants them i . The turnover in the coaching staff is significant. Gase isn’t just getting the players he wants he’s assembling the coaches he wants too.

So yeah, one way to lok at it is we were statistically a 4-12 team who lost 3 pro-bowlers in the off season. Another way to look at it is those 3 pro-bowlers weren’t moving the needle and we get back +15 to the team passer rating with our QB and our defence should be much improved with players returning from injury and the addition of talent in the draft.

 

Just a generalization based on league-wide results from teams that "won the offseason" according to fans and/or media and failed. '96 Jets, early '00 Redskins, '10 Vikings, '11 Eagles, are some extreme examples of how you can't turn and burn your roster and staff nor buy championships.

 

I think tannehill is worth 2 more wins as a qb and I think Adam gase is worth 2 more as a head coach and play caller.

The latter of which I think he’s top shelf.

The qb execution will be a lot better in 2018. This whole thing comes down to tannehills health.

 

I dont like the idea of it being all on RTs shoulders. He has never shown he is the kind of QB who can carry the team on his shoulders. I dont expect him to breakout now, especially not coming off a major injury. I think there is too much wishful thinking involved here. Gase gambled on thill last year without a backup plan and lost. He is going into next season the same way. Even if he does stay healthy we need all of the other parts of the team to be above average because Thill will not be able to win games on his own.

 

I think gase went with what the tape tells him and it’s the same thing it’s told me and that’s that if you separate the qb ask and responsibility from everyone else this qb can execute at a high clip.

Banking on health post surgery? Well I see a lot of other teams doing it.

 

The point is that this offense doesn’t put too much on the QB. It relies on whole team execution.
We saw it in ‘the stretch’ in 2016.
Tannehill isn”t a Russel Wilson/John Elway/Brett Favre type QB who makes things happen put of busted plays. He’s a Tom Brady/Joe Montana/Bob Griese type who makes the scripts work.

This off season the entire focus of the Dolphins off season has been to find players who will stick to the script and execute the plan.

 

I can get down with calling Ryan tannehill a script based qb as long as the real implication in that is he’s pre snap and progression read based by and large. There are exceptions obviously like the zone read work the rpos and the etc which is post snap based outside of pre snap box count.

But by and large ryan tannehill like a Tom Brady for instance is pre snap and progression read based.

 

If we aren't successful running the ball? We will not win games. If we are? We will.

It has been the single biggest factor in the Dolphin's performances the past 2 years.

 

Yep, Hoops, that’s exactly what I meant, only explained clearly.

We saw, for exam0le, early in his career he struggled with robber coverages when the D put pkayers where he didn’t expect them.

But when he reads the D correctly and the blockers and recievers do their jobs he is as good as any QB in the league.

 

he's a plus pre snap read qb all the way. no doubt. but I do have a question about these robber coverages. when I studied the tapes those plays where he failed to account for something post snap the pre snap read and even early post snap read took him there correctly even I might add. those robber coverages are sticks based more than anything else. they can't run them as long as we maintain the sticks. and im serious when I say that almost to the 100 percent clip someone other than the qb failed on the prior snap to execute and maintain the sticks thus resulting in the oppositions opportunity to "bait" the qb.

but back to my question what exactly should the qb do in a pre snap and progression read based o if the pre snap and early post snap even takes him to that progression and the bait works? I asked that aqua guy that after I saw him post gifs and mention these plays as well with tanny and never got any response. what is the adjustment the qb should make there? what most the time I saw was a off coverage db playing a leverage and coverage where the qb pre to post snap would go there as the primary and then a post snap either pre snap show blitz or non show blitz lb run underneath of it. something along those lines maybe with a bottom side blitz db forcing the qb to make a quick post snap verification and throw.

 

Yes, and no.

Our defense is not built to stand on it's own. McMillan is the only LB true to prototype to hold down the required responsibilities on base; Allen is sufficient. The others are too light in the pants for stout single gap play vs the run. If the offense happens to stumble out of the gate, or we get behind in the scoreboard, our defense WILL struggle to right the ship and in their attempts to promptly get the ball back to the offense.

Personally I find with the way we've built the defense, it puts too much pressure on QB play. Whether it's Tannehill or any other passer in the league I don't find it to be an effective strategy.

 

Exactly. The running game is a numbers game determined by the sticks, the scoreboard, and the numbers presented in the box. When behind, the defense can dictate more terms to the offense, outnumber gaps, and do so with DB personnel to counter both run and pass phases effectively despite usually the removal of a front 7 defender.

 

Agreed. If we get the lead our defense has special potential. If we play from behind?? We are in trouble.

 

Outside of tannehill I’d be worried more about lb attrition than anything else. I don’t see what the counter is schematically if we lose the poa/fill options at lb. and we don’t have many of them and our best one lacks perimeter field consistent range at least on college tape

 

Culpepper was never 100% when he was named the starter.