Since Miami's embarrassing loss to Baltimore last Thursday and more recently, since the surprising trade of Jay Ajayi to the Eagles, I've kept quiet and needed time to sit back and reflect. Well that reflection time has passed. For the last week, there have been knee jerk emotional outbursts that have seemed juvenile, so let's see if we can't put some things into perspective.
The Miami Dolphins, particularly offensively are a mess. While we have lots of talent on that side of the ball it's not melding this season. The loss of Tannehill in the off-season put the Dolphins in a tailspin trying to figure out the best way to try and salvage the season. Let's be truly honest, Tannehill was having the best season of his career last year prior to his injury and hopes were high for Miami this year. There were high hopes placed on the Dolphins offensively, not just because of the expected performance by Tannehill, prior to his injury, but with the explosion onto the scene by 2nd year running back Jay Ajayi. With back to back 200+ yards rushing games and a third against the Bills, it seemed Miami was poised to make a challenge to the New England Patriots for the AFC East. Now while Tannehill and Cutler/Moore have been discussed and debated to the point that it makes me tired, I want to focus on Ajayi.
Now don't get me wrong. I like this kid. He's talented and has the ability to make big plays but it seems the term "talented" anymore is defined as "has the ability to do so but isn't", and that defines Ajayi since last season following the first meeting with the Bills game. Since that game, Ajayi had the following stats
vs NYJ; 24/111
@SDG; 19/79
@LAR; 16/77
vs SFO; 18/45
@BAL; 12/61
vs ARZ; 20/48
@NYJ; 19/51
@BUF; 32/206
vs NE; 16/59
Now every team wants the premier RB to rush for 100 yards per game and Ajayi did that against the Jets but with the exception of the final game against the Bills, where was Ajayi? Take away the first Jets game and the second Bills game, Ajayi ran the ball an average of 17 times and averaged 60 yards a game. Well in the NFL, that's not going to cut it if you're the starting RB. Everyone was so enamored by Ajayi and his 3 200+ yard games that I believe everyone thought this is what he was going to do every time he touched the ball.
This season, Ajayi had only 2 games with over 100 yards rushing, @ LAC and @ATL. Other than those two games, Ajayi touched the ball an average of 16.8 times for a whopping grand total of 53.25 yards and in this last lost to the Ravens, he opened up with a 21 yard rush and the other 12 times he rushed the ball, added 2 more yards to his rushing total.
Was Ajayi doing too much freelancing and not hitting the holes of the plays called by Gase and said freelancing didn't work? Were the actual holes that were supposed to be opened up by the OL not there? I don't know. I'm not the coach but one thing I do want everyone to keep in mind on Ajayi...last season, Ajayi didn't even board the plane for Seattle. Gase benched him.
Usually it's players that go through a sophomore slump. Hell, we have two of the 10 most notable sophomore slump victims on our team in Suh and Wake and I dare say no one would doubt the caliber of players they are. It's difficult to actually find stats for a head coach regarding sophomore slumps, but hindsight being 20/20, I did worry about Gase having a sophomore slump this season.
One of the things that builds great teams is consistency and if you look at teams that had winning seasons, they all had the same thing in common. Noll, Knox, Shula, Gibbs, Cowher, Fischer, Lewis, Reid and lastly Belichick. In this day and age of instant media and instant demand for success, consistency is something that's sacrificed for instant gratification. I'm not one of those calling for Gase's firing like so many are here out of emotion, but I am watching him closely to see whether or not he has what it takes to build a perennial play-off contender where we can once again have that consistency that's been the hallmark of other teams in the NFL.
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I think that there would be less people would be calling for his head if he should the ability to adapt. Gase continues with the same plan. Bubble screens and running the ball when there are 8 to 9 defenders in the box. Of course Ajayi was trying to bounce outside, who could run into a standed box behind the leagues worst offensive line.
The whole Cutler experiment was a 10 million dollar failure too. I would have respected Gase more if he would have just ran with the QBs that we have on the roster when THill went down. Clearly Cutler doesn’t know the system as well as Gase sold it. -
imo..last year, Ajayi had favorite plays that came on the outside zone stuff..however, I saw and stated that teams were starting to see it and you could see them filling and flowing to the outside, bottom line defensive coordinators figured us and Jay out..
now here we are trying to adapt to that by calling inside stuff, delay stuff up the middle, and we got crappy guard play..it wasn't working, and the film and stats showed it..
as far as Gase goes...We'll see..imo a head coach has to be able to get players to run through a brick wall for him and have great respect for him..
I'm perplexed as to how all this stuff about preparation has come about, I mean all we've heard is that this team has worked hard and is so close and all that, but somewhere he lost them a bit..
The one thing I truly believe is that its going to very hard to win a championship in Miami..I think you have to take a different approach as far as acquiring personnel..you need to prioritize smarts and work ethic, and I've said that for years..im so tired of minimal success followed by bloated egos and sh##y prime time performances and in big games.
I like the fact that he is the first coach I can remember to call these players out...im fascinated to see how it plays out.Last edited: Nov 2, 2017Bumrush, Brasfin and SocaCasualuk like this. -
Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member
Hold me Boik, I'm scared!
OK I guess I'll man up and go read this. Cover me, I'm going in! -
Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member
Whew, that wasn't so bad after all. I am glad to hear another adult voice in the wilderness.
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NOOOOO GASE SUX
Thanks for these rational thoughts.LI phinfan, Fame, Puka-head and 1 other person like this. -
Well, a big part of the problem and lack of better production for him this year is certainly the interior OL. It wasn't great to begin with and a couple of guys got injured. I think when Steen went down, we were on a 3rd stringer. That can't be overstated. It's an effin' mess. Of course he's going to have a big drop off in production and big plays. That's also a reason for why you see him trying or forced to stretch some runs outside. I don't know what the real details of he and Gase's issues were, but if that was true, that can't be a good thing, but I would put a lot of the blame on the interior OL.
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Our offense has been horrible all season yet we're 1 game above 500. That's not an ability to adapt?
We've travelled more than anyone. Lost a coach to coke. Resorted to our 3rd string QB. Been without our top LB and WR most of the year. That's not an ability to adapt?
You could pick any team in the league, find one thing to complain about and make the case that the coach should be fired. Again, our offense sucks. We got that part. But we've won more than we've lost and we're still in the playoff hunt. On top of everything, we just cut our stud RB to get young blood on the field. That's not an ability to adapt?
If we were 0-7, then I'd say sure...let Gase have it. But you don't freak out over one blowout loss with our QB3 playing on 2 days practice (for the season...not just the week) and our best WR out. Our stud RB? He ran two yards the entire game minus the very first play. I could see if people were yelling "Bench Ajayi," even though not a single person did except for me.
But fire Gase because he can't adapt? Seriously? I don't think any NFL coach has adapted more this season.Last edited: Nov 3, 2017Pandarilla, aesop, Finatik and 7 others like this. -
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Can't make it up.LI phinfan, Brasfin, Fame and 2 others like this. -
Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member
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I get the feeling that Gase's offense runs very well with a QB who can run (threat to run, at the very least) and a running back that is versatile (which Ajayi is not).
A QB who can recognize defenses quickly at the line and make the right check/option makes his offense ridiculously difficult to defend at times. We saw some of that with Miami last year with Tannehill in the driver's seat.
Andy Reid's offense runs tons of screens, and they're pretty darned effective at it. It always has been a staple. He's also had some versatile QBs and RBs. I think the ONLY reason Miami got Philly to bite is because they got a potential rockstar RB who has run in a similar system. Pederson was under Reid.
Let's not get it twisted, Aljayi sucks at catching out of the backfield. He's an okay blocker. I don't think he's really going to be a huge focus initially up in Philly.
I think Philly looks at it like: "Well, Ajayi is just something else the D will have to focus on". They have a fantastic young QB up there who takes shots from time-to-time. Keep the D honest with the threat. They have Blount who is doing fairly well, but he runs best inside. Ajayi, he can run the outside zone stuff pretty damned well. But he can also do damage inside.
Anyway, Ajayi not being part of the team anymore, we have Williams and Drake. Drake, who's not necessarily a small RB, is shifty and is probably more dynamic catching the ball than Ajayi. Williams, who is an absolute beast on wheels and such, but is just okay when running out of the backfield. Dynamic runner doesn't really come to mind when thinking about Williams. Both of these running backs offer something that Ajayi does not: the threat to catch it out of the backfield. That's a wrinkle.
I think on the 3rd and 5 situations, that screen that everyone is complaining about pays off. Or at least, the threat of it. Ajayi gave no such threat.
Remember, some of these are the QBs call at the line. Maybe the QB makes the wrong call? Maybe the personnel grouping doesn't scare the defense enough to put their best LB or Dlineman on Ajayi in those situations, leaving better players free to blitz or rush the QB?
Ajayi, for what it's worth, is a helluva runner. And he needs an offense where he's sort of the feature running the ball. Not catching the ball. And Ajayi wasn't even Gase's player. He was previous regime's. They started off on the wrong foot. Players like that usually do not learn, and I think Gase and the team tried everything to keep things under wraps regarding Ajayi's temper. Not much was said. Everything was always behind "closed doors". Nothing very specific. Miami did their job and gave the guy the rock. Apparently, it wasn't enough. Well, Ajayi seemed to be the one not putting in the mental reps. This is what happens. He probably was slowly becoming a cancer to the TEAM dynamic. Ties were cut.
As great as Terrell Owens was, he played for several different teams. In my mind, he's a HOFer. Now that's maybe a bit extreme when comparing Ajayi to Owens in the attitude dept, but the fact of the matter is, this isn't the "Give ME the Rock Dolphins" It's THE Miami Dolphins.
Gase did two things here:
I think he opened up the offense a bit more given the particular personnel because Ajayi is not dynamic. But he also sent a message, do your job and get rewarded. Or don't and get traded.
Now, if Cutler can start throwing accurate passes and reading the defenses a little better and stop Favring near the Red Zone, we might have a competitive team with the way the defense typically plays. McDonald comes back in a couple of weeks.
Odd stat: Pouncey hasn't allowed a pressure in the last five weeks. If this Oline can come together just a bit better, we might have something worth watching. Because of the lack of Tannehill, consistency will be the biggest issue moving forward this year.
I think Cutler and Moore are somewhat of a hinderance to this offense simply because they're no real threat to run. Which kind of brings me back to Andy Reid and screens: they're not going anywhere with Gase. They are setup plays with QB read/options that work very well with dynamic backs and a QB who's a threat to run. The "read" part of it is very important.
Think of it like pitching: low to the left. Low to the left. High fast inside for the strikeout. The Landry TD on the "Jet Sweep" play was a prime example of that. And he was WIDE OPEN.
It sucks watching this offense right now, but we lost a QB who I've been comparing to Alex Smith for the past three years as an insult. I'd take that all day in this offense. Hopefully he comes back stronger than ever.Last edited: Nov 5, 2017Puka-head, resnor, SocaCasualuk and 1 other person like this. -
I get it though,its tough being a fan of this team..Ive actually come to enjoy the process of trying to be better than the pros when it comes to fixing this team..problem is they don't listen to me lol...but its fun trying to find the right path and personnel.resnor likes this. -
To preface, I really don't care about the trade but I want people to have a realistic understanding about Ajayi's production. We can say he only topped 100 yards a couple of times and we can hand pick the stretch of games we look at, conveniently beginning right after a 200 yard game if we want to. Others will say if you take out his 200 yard games he is not so good either. I never understood handpicking stats other than to make a point that one already wanted to see and finding the stats to back it up. If we take out any player's best games and look at their worst stretch of games we will not so shockingly find that they are not as productive as it seemed. We can also do the opposite if we really like a player and throw out their worst games. Bottom line is that Ajayi was a 5.6 yard per carry back last year and 4.6 this year. It happened. All of the games that contributed to that average happened.
Some games he didn't get the ball much and other times he was a workhorse. He can't control play calling, or the situation of the game. If a back is on a team that is trailing, there's a good chance he will not see the ball as much for example. So measuring by how many 100 yard games he gets is irrelevant IMO. If you want a quick set of stats to see how good a back is at running, look at his yards per carry, not per game. If you start taking away his good games, by the mystical powers of math, his average will drop and you have a mediocre back. Take away his bad games and amazingly you will have the greatest back ever, but neither of those 2 assessments is realistic. It all happened so it all counts. Some games defenses keyed on him because our offense as a whole never scared anybody, but he was productive as a Dolphin. I just wanted to clear that up. It comes to mind every time somebody rolls out some handpicked stats.
My apologies if any of this comes across as juvenile. I am just trying to respectfully disagree.Last edited: Nov 3, 2017Puka-head likes this. -
Puka-head, Pandarilla, Dolphin North and 1 other person like this.
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Puka-head, Conuficus, Irishman and 1 other person like this.
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I'm strongly in the give Gase a chance camp, but this trade is troubling to me. No matter how I look at this it isn't a good look for our HC. Assuming Jay is the problem, if Gase had concerns about AJayi coming into the season then front office actions should have been taken, if he had no concerns about Ajayi, then he (and his staff) are doing a bad job. This type of thing needs to be sniffed out before it impacts a season.
This move takes a weapon out of our arsenal. Nobody was holding a gun to Gase's head making him play Ajayi, so even Gase knows his most talented running back is the guy he just sent to Philly. We can argue merit of the decision all day long, but in the end this is still a hit to talent level.
I'm a little worried the way this and the Maxwell cut happened. Its almost like once your in Gase's dog house you never actually make it out. That's not a good way to coach, and it will go a long way in losing the locker room. This is from the outside looking in of course, so, there is always the chance there are other circumstances I don't see.
I don't believe this is all about Gase's ego, but if I'm wrong, the next couple of weeks should show us something. If the team rallies and plays hard, then the team is still behind him. If the whole team starts looking flat... then my guess is Gase lost the locker room. I would caution reading too much into this next game, we will need to give it the next 3 or 4 to see what the result of this decision was.Dolphin North likes this. -
1. I don't think a player in Gase's doghouse is always there. Ajayi was in the doghouse last year, Gase let him out. I just think the things that put him in the doghouse originally got worse because.........of this next part
2. They haven't been playing well. It looks like we became rudderless with Thill. I don;t know where you personally stand on the Thill issue, but I think it is fairly obvious now that he held the offense together. There's a power void on offense right now as Cutler is still trying to get back into the groove and Moore has never been an alpha. Sometimes a group of people need a lynchpin to hold them together. My grandmother, for example, was the lynchpin on my dad's side of the family. Once she died, the family fractured. Its not that any one person is terrible or worse than another, its just that there often needs too be a stabilizing force. -
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Im sure he didn't trade them because of their on the field football talent..but he went there anyways..
just saying.gilv13 likes this. -
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I think it was the British accent. -
I can't explain how a player goes from clear starter, to traded for what will be a next to nothing pick. At least not while the season is still salvageable. Maybe he really is just that bad of a person to deal with, nothing I have heard has lead me to believe that though... -
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Fin D likes this.
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there are some things that came out that were not positive in terms of his ability to be coached.resnor and Phins_to_Win like this. -
I think its a case where the attitude and lack of attention to details outweighed the production.. -
So what's different this season? The only thing different is that your eyes say Ajayi is a great player. Only, it goes right back to the situation from last season....if you're not watching the line, then you don't know why our run game has collapsed entirely. It's easy to blame it all on the line every time something bad happens, and fans are so used to doing it that they can't even comprehend that the problem could be the QB, the RB or someone else.
The truth of the matter is that once you watch film, Ajayi and the offensive line are both problems....but Ajayi was by far the biggest one. His pass blocking was terrible. He did whatever he felt like on run plays. And he should have been benched again 3 or 4 weeks ago.
Again, what has really changed? In both instances, Gase saw problems and got rid of the problems. The only real difference this season is that we're 4-3 and still in the playoff hunt, where the last season appeared to be all but over at 1-5.Puka-head likes this. -
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Ive heard several players talk about Game and how he protects them in practice, takes measures to make sure they have their legs and are ready for the game...looks to me some players took advantage of him, and he let it go for a bit, until he couldn't anymore..
basically, ''im gonna go the extra mile to make sure your ready on Sunday but you have to do your part on your own to make sure your ready mentally...''
got burned...lessoned learned by a new coach.Puka-head likes this. -
I'm really wondering how much Ajayi's knee and expected short career played into this decision. We think of him as a young rising back, but the truth is, he may only play another 2 or 3 years. Then you get nothing in a trade. That's not to say I am happy they traded him, but I'm just saying what might have been a factor in the decision.Last edited: Nov 3, 2017 -
He's just cleaning house. Just like Belichek.
As for Baltimore, it was a bit of a perfect storm. Lots of factors played into why the offense was flat. -
I agree pretty well with everything in the OP and was going to start a similar thread.
Some extra points from my perspective.
1) I am still in the “give Gase a chance” camp. I think it is important to look at the type of players that Gase has cut and compare those to the ones that Philbin cut. Philbin cut players who didn’t kneel subserviently to him, and a significant number of the people he cut/gave up on went on to have productive stints at places other than the phins (Brandon Marshall, Vontae Davis, Jamar Taylor, Carlos Dansby, Sean Smith, Jonas Gray et al). Compare that to the players Gase has cut and I can’t think of one who has gone on to be productive elsewhere. Obviously we all expect Ajayi to be productive in Philly, but Gase’s track record on who to keep and who to discard is looking pretty good right now.
2) Whilst the O has been crud, we do have to give Gase credit for the improvement on the D side of the ball. Which shows that the D side has come on board with Gase’s message and methods and it is providing dividends.
3) I think there has been an attitude problem with the Phins since the Philbin era (error?). I talked about it at the time of the purge last year, and I think it bears repeating, that Philbin created an environment where your onfield performance had little effect on your status as a starter. It takes time for team culture to change, people hold onto their habits, good or bad.
4) The FO neglect of the OG position is something that needs to be addressed. We have seen how addrressing the lack of talent at LB, which fans have screamed for since the Ellersby/Wheeler debacle, has helped transform the D. Now I don’t know exactly how much to apportion blame between the FO and the coaching staff on this one, but since it is a pre-Gase problem I am inclined to put most of the blame on the FO.
5) I am not all aboard with Gase. One specific example is his complete overuse of WR screens.Puka-head likes this.