Predictions for W/L Record

It's interesting that there are complaints about players not being "clutch" means they aren't good, then when there are 5 games we won in the 4th, it's considered stolen or somehow not indicative of being good.

"KeyFin wrote:

I think we do have the talent, simply because we have the best WR corp in the league, possibly one of the best running backs and a QB that sometimes borders on being legendary. We now have the best blocking TE in football, one of the best passing targets in a different TE, and a fairly solid offensive line. Out of every position besides guard, we have someone you could argue belongs in the top 5 league-wide on a good day. Plain and simple, if we can get to where we're averaging 30-34 PPG, then we're a 14-2 football team and making a deep run in the playoffs.

This offense has that potential and there's very few people I'd replace at this point.

Now flip the script- the defense. There are several people I'd replace BUT if the offense executes like they're capable, then we have to hold opponents to 29 per game. We were below that amount last year with 2nd and 3rd stringers on the field, so I don't think it's a crazy stretch of the imagination to expect us to be there with our starters. We have upgraded nicely at all three levels though; especially at linebacker. If we're better at stopping the run this season then that goes a very long way to holding opponents under 20.

It all comes down to the offense executing....that's been our struggle for over a decade now. The defense doesn't have to be legendary if you have guys that can find the endzone, and we have A LOT of those guys on our roster.

Tannehill legendary? Okay, I give him one game against Houston that qualifies, but other than that, he's steady eddy to me. Not high highs, but mostly no low lows.

I don't find ourselves with a solid line only because I'm afraid of Pouncey's health and couple that with our guards.

And we do NOT have the best WR corps in the league but Top 10 for sure. Could be the best if Parker and Stills reach their potential. Green Bay, NE, Saints, maybe ATL, Giants.

Tampa Bay can be very good depending on how they integrate Desean Jackson. Flying under the radar is Adam Humphries who's numbers (except targets) aren't dissimilar from Landry. Mike Evans is better than anyone we have by a wide margin.

"jdang307 wrote:

Tannehill legendary? Okay, I give him one game against Houston that qualifies, but other than that, he's steady eddy to me. Not high highs, but mostly no low lows.

That second half against the Pats? He looked like a man possessed....that was the legendary moment I was referring to. Just my opinion though, definitely not looking to start a Tannehill conversation.

"KeyFin wrote:

That second half against the Pats? He looked like a man possessed....that was the legendary moment I was referring to. Just my opinion though, definitely not looking to start a Tannehill conversation.

Unfortunately so much revolves around the QB since football has only gotten more pass happy. Almost every thread inevitably becomes about him.

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"KeyFin wrote:

That second half against the Pats? He looked like a man possessed....that was the legendary moment I was referring to. Just my opinion though, definitely not looking to start a Tannehill conversation.

All good. Everyone has flashes of great play. That's why I said, okay, Houston (even though they were all short passes :D)

"jdang307 wrote:

All good. Everyone has flashes of great play. That's why I said, okay, Houston (even though they were all short passes :D)

Wasn't that the game where the receivers had a ton of YAC? Can you really give him credit for that? There's some other games where he was pretty damn good but that's not one from what I remember.

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"KeyFin wrote:

I think we do have the talent, simply because we have the best WR corp in the league, possibly one of the best running backs and a QB that sometimes borders on being legendary. We now have the best blocking TE in football, one of the best passing targets in a different TE, and a fairly solid offensive line. Out of every position besides guard, we have someone you could argue belongs in the top 5 league-wide on a good day. Plain and simple, if we can get to where we're averaging 30-34 PPG, then we're a 14-2 football team and making a deep run in the playoffs.

This offense has that potential and there's very few people I'd replace at this point.

Now flip the script- the defense. There are several people I'd replace BUT if the offense executes like they're capable, then we have to hold opponents to 29 per game. We were below that amount last year with 2nd and 3rd stringers on the field, so I don't think it's a crazy stretch of the imagination to expect us to be there with our starters. We have upgraded nicely at all three levels though; especially at linebacker. If we're better at stopping the run this season then that goes a very long way to holding opponents under 20.

It all comes down to the offense executing....that's been our struggle for over a decade now. The defense doesn't have to be legendary if you have guys that can find the endzone, and we have A LOT of those guys on our roster.

I get the feeling that the Adam Gase offense is geared to be more like the Griese Dolphins than the Marino Dolphins. Gase seems to be planning to be getting 3 or 4 genuine home shots a game in the passing game, and using ball control to consolidate the gains made. Not a Wannstadt keep the ball on the ground idiocy but its more about creating fewer but higher quality opportunities.
While there are the tools to create a New Orleans Saints or San Diego Chargers type gameplan built around a high volume of passing I don't see Gase calling that type of game. I think 27-30 ppg is the realistic upper limit of what Gase is creating, but its more about building a higher floor than a higher ceiling. It's harder to lose if your offense generates a minimum of 20ppg and tops out at 40 points, than if your offense can score 50 points on a good day, but can be kept to 10 points on a bad day.

"Pauly wrote:

I get the feeling that the Adam Gase offense is geared to be more like the Griese Dolphins than the Marino Dolphins. Gase seems to be planning to be getting 3 or 4 genuine home shots a game in the passing game, and using ball control to consolidate the gains made. Not a Wannstadt keep the ball on the ground idiocy but its more about creating fewer but higher quality opportunities.
While there are the tools to create a New Orleans Saints or San Diego Chargers type gameplan built around a high volume of passing I don't see Gase calling that type of game. I think 27-30 ppg is the realistic upper limit of what Gase is creating, but its more about building a higher floor than a higher ceiling. It's harder to lose if your offense generates a minimum of 20ppg and tops out at 40 points, than if your offense can score 50 points on a good day, but can be kept to 10 points on a bad day.

I think he's attempting to build an offense that can produce on anyone. If they are playing a defense committed to stopping the run, ok make them pay thru the air. If they want to stop the pass, ok feed Ajayi with Fasano blocking. Excel at stopping the short stuff? Ok here's Stills and Parker threatening the deep sideline and middle. Etc, etc. so on and so on.

"Fin D wrote:

I think he's attempting to build an offense that can produce on anyone. If they are playing a defense committed to stopping the run, ok make them pay thru the air. If they want to stop the pass, ok feed Ajayi with Fasano blocking. Excel at stopping the short stuff? Ok here's Stills and Parker threatening the deep sideline and middle. Etc, etc. so on and so on.

Thats basically what I meant by creating a higher floor, not a higher ceiling. He wants on offense that can score consistently against any defense.

"Fin D wrote:

I think he's attempting to build an offense that can produce on anyone. If they are playing a defense committed to stopping the run, ok make them pay thru the air. If they want to stop the pass, ok feed Ajayi with Fasano blocking. Excel at stopping the short stuff? Ok here's Stills and Parker threatening the deep sideline and middle. Etc, etc. so on and so on.

I completely agree with this, I think he's trying to build a well rounded O that can take advantage of whatever chinks the particular team we are playing have, which isn't easy.

"Pauly wrote:

I get the feeling that the Adam Gase offense is geared to be more like the Griese Dolphins than the Marino Dolphins. Gase seems to be planning to be getting 3 or 4 genuine home shots a game in the passing game, and using ball control to consolidate the gains made. Not a Wannstadt keep the ball on the ground idiocy but its more about creating fewer but higher quality opportunities.

While there are the tools to create a New Orleans Saints or San Diego Chargers type gameplan built around a high volume of passing I don't see Gase calling that type of game. I think 27-30 ppg is the realistic upper limit of what Gase is creating, but its more about building a higher floor than a higher ceiling. It's harder to lose if your offense generates a minimum of 20ppg and tops out at 40 points, than if your offense can score 50 points on a good day, but can be kept to 10 points on a bad day.

Honestly, I don't see that based on his resume. I do agree that we will never be a pass-happy team; the goal (from Gase's mouth several times) is to run a balanced offense that takes advantage of mismatches. If Stills beats the coverage then you throw the bomb every time- but you have to hold the ball long enough for that to develop in the first place. We never saw that under Philbin except on designed plays.

Stills is almost an automatic home run if he gets behind coverage AND Tannehill spots it. Parker can get up high and come down with anything. Landry will make people miss and punish those who don't....that's truly rare to have all three types of weapons at a high level. Then you have Ajayi and Williams keeping D's honest...and I think the potential is there to put up some pretty big points. From the way I see it, it's just identifying opportunities, creating mismatches and getting the ball where it needs to be- that's the Gase style in a nutshell.

One more thing- last year was a horrible baseline for what to expect. We started with a terrible line, our true #1 receiver was out of shape, Tannehill missed the last four, line injuries galore, our best RB started the season benched....it was one huge learning curve for a 1st year offense. To win 10 games like we did with chaos in the lineup each week- it was incredibly impressive. But at the same time, I feel like the best is truly yet to come when this offense finds real chemistry. We haven't been able to see that yet at all.

"Pauly wrote:

I get the feeling that the Adam Gase offense is geared to be more like the Griese Dolphins than the Marino Dolphins. Gase seems to be planning to be getting 3 or 4 genuine home shots a game in the passing game, and using ball control to consolidate the gains made. Not a Wannstadt keep the ball on the ground idiocy but its more about creating fewer but higher quality opportunities.
While there are the tools to create a New Orleans Saints or San Diego Chargers type gameplan built around a high volume of passing I don't see Gase calling that type of game. I think 27-30 ppg is the realistic upper limit of what Gase is creating, but its more about building a higher floor than a higher ceiling. It's harder to lose if your offense generates a minimum of 20ppg and tops out at 40 points, than if your offense can score 50 points on a good day, but can be kept to 10 points on a bad day.

From what I'v read, I think he is the coach who wants to pass pass, pass, and pass some more. Christensen joked something to the effect that Gase gets a rash when you call too many run plays. Gase, luckily, is smart enough to know his tendencies are wrong, and that balance is good.

20-0 :butthead:

"jdang307 wrote:

From what I'v read, I think he is the coach who wants to pass pass, pass, and pass some more. Christensen joked something to the effect that Gase gets a rash when you call too many run plays. Gase, luckily, is smart enough to know his tendencies are wrong, and that balance is good.

Lets do a perception -v- reality check.
Last year the NFL averaged 41.2% rushing on offensive plays without penalties involved.
Gase called 46.0% rushes.

Since we know that rushing% is strongly affected by scoreboard position lets break it down into when leading and when trailing.
NFL ahead: 50.3% rushing
Gase: 55.3% rushing

NFL behind: 34.8% rushing
Gase: 40.1% rushing

Just for comparison, in 2014/2015 in Lazor's offense the splits were 38.7% overall, 52.7% when ahead and 30.7% when behind.

I dont fear the schedule. In reality teams change so much that you never know what you are getting in terms of quality of opponents.

Last season we went 10-6 against a fairly weak opposition and winning a lot of close games while usually losing big. There's nothing bad in winning close games, it says a lot about character, but you can't bet on winning those games consistently so it's likely you have a regression over time. That's just a point I cant ignore when making a prediction about the next season.

On the other hand I think we should be a much improved team from last year with key players back and good acquisitions who help establish some depth and hopefully a couple of quality starters. The most important factor here is if we get Pouncey back or he definitely fades as an injury prone guy who cant be trusted to stay healthy for the majority of the season, and that's a big IF. The team should also improve its proficiency in the system, while we upgraded the roster wasnt overhauled and the core players are the same (we actually paid a premium to keep them) so I expect them to play overall better team football.

It's really hard to beat regression to the mean but I think we have a chance and we finish at worst 9-7 but have a shot at 10-6 or better...

"Pauly wrote:

Lets do a perception -v- reality check.
Last year the NFL averaged 41.2% rushing on offensive plays without penalties involved.
Gase called 46.0% rushes.

Since we know that rushing% is strongly affected by scoreboard position lets break it down into when leading and when trailing.
NFL ahead: 50.3% rushing
Gase: 55.3% rushing

NFL behind: 34.8% rushing
Gase: 40.1% rushing

Just for comparison, in 2014/2015 in Lazor's offense the splits were 38.7% overall, 52.7% when ahead and 30.7% when behind.

He wants to pass. He prefers to pass. I believe he may have told his coaches to keep him in check. He knows they should keep balance, but he favors the pass much more.

Think 2014 Broncos. You can't just look at his one year here, or even his year with Cutler, as neither is Peyton. If he had Peyton still, he'd be passing. I'm pretty sure he doesn't like an offense that is passing 28-30 times a game. He's just a master at adapting to his personnel, and his personnel dictated a run heavy offense. But he adjusts the offense around the quarterback, and last year is what he came up with. With another year under his belt, Tanny may be better equipped to start running more passing plays.

This is not perception, these are the words out of his mouth. His own OC says he gets a rash when they call too many running plays.

Reality is, we threw the 2nd least amount of passes last year, and was 26th in completions. We were also dead last in number of plays ran. If you think that's the reality Gase wants to live in, well you'd be wrong.

He went from a Denver offense that was 600/450 and no 1000 yard rusher, but the offense was prolific. I'm sure he likes that offense a lot more than what he ran in Chicago, and here. And that's where he'd like to go.

"jdang307 wrote:

He wants to pass. He prefers to pass. I believe he may have told his coaches to keep him in check. He knows they should keep balance, but he favors the pass much more.

Think 2014 Broncos. You can't just look at his one year here, or even his year with Cutler, as neither is Peyton. If he had Peyton still, he'd be passing. I'm pretty sure he doesn't like an offense that is passing 28-30 times a game. He's just a master at adapting to his personnel, and his personnel dictated a run heavy offense. But he adjusts the offense around the quarterback, and last year is what he came up with. With another year under his belt, Tanny may be better equipped to start running more passing plays.

This is not perception, these are the words out of his mouth. His own OC says he gets a rash when they call too many running plays.

Reality is, we threw the 2nd least amount of passes last year, and was 26th in completions. We were also dead last in number of plays ran. If you think that's the reality Gase wants to live in, well you'd be wrong.

He went from a Denver offense that was 600/450 and no 1000 yard rusher, but the offense was prolific. I'm sure he likes that offense a lot more than what he ran in Chicago, and here. And that's where he'd like to go.

You say "You can't just look at his one year here, or even his year with Cutler" and then you want us to just look at the 2014 Broncos? lol...Wut?

Any team that has Peyton Manning wants to pass more. However, Pauly broke down for you the reality.

And then there is this:

"The whole league is 10 yards and under. That's what it is. Nobody is going down the field. There's one team that does it really, maybe two. Pittsburgh and Arizona. Hold onto the ball and they chuck it down the field," he said. "More teams than not, it's 10 yards and under. That's where all the passing game is. The D-ends are too good. If you want to stand back there and have your quarterbacks get your brains beat out, go at it."
---Adam Gase

Gase may like to pass the ball, but he also likes to run the ball just as much.

"danmarino wrote:

You say "You can't just look at his one year here, or even his year with Cutler" and then you want us to just look at the 2014 Broncos? lol...Wut?

Any team that has Peyton Manning wants to pass more. However, Pauly broke down for you the reality.

And then there is this:

"The whole league is 10 yards and under. That's what it is. Nobody is going down the field. There's one team that does it really, maybe two. Pittsburgh and Arizona. Hold onto the ball and they chuck it down the field," he said. "More teams than not, it's 10 yards and under. That's where all the passing game is. The D-ends are too good. If you want to stand back there and have your quarterbacks get your brains beat out, go at it."
---Adam Gase

Gase may like to pass the ball, but he also likes to run the ball just as much.

I put up the Manning numbers to show you can't just look at his numbers here or last year. If you look at all 4-5 years of his OC you get two very different pictures. I won't call it cherry-picking, but it's not the whole story.

I was talking about his wants and wishes. And those come directly from his mouth. I mean, literally his OC said he gets a rash when you call too many run plays. You are pushing back against that? That joke illustrates what he wants. He doesn't like to run the ball. He's smart enough that he knows he needs to run the ball. He doesn't like to run the ball.

He's a self-professed pass-happy coach, I say he wants to be pass-happy, and you're pushing back? Weird.

Your quote doesn't even support your point, or negate mine. Not sure why you posted it. Nothing in there about balance. What is a hallmark of the great passing offenses that are 10 and under? LOTS OF PASSES.

Through 1/3 of the season they dropped back 65% of the time, and after that 44% of the time. If he had the personnel to do so, he would throw it 40 times a game and eschew balance. But he's smart, so he tailors his offense around personnel, and more specifically the QB

"jdang307 wrote:

I put up the Manning numbers to show you can't just look at his numbers here or last year. If you look at all 4-5 years of his OC you get two very different pictures. I won't call it cherry-picking, but it's not the whole story.

I was talking about his wants and wishes. And those come directly from his mouth. I mean, literally his OC said he gets a rash when you call too many run plays. You are pushing back against that? That joke illustrates what he wants. He doesn't like to run the ball. He's smart enough that he knows he needs to run the ball. He doesn't like to run the ball.

He's a self-professed pass-happy coach, I say he wants to be pass-happy, and you're pushing back? Weird.

Your quote doesn't even support your point, or negate mine. Not sure why you posted it. Nothing in there about balance. What is a hallmark of the great passing offenses that are 10 and under? LOTS OF PASSES.

Through 1/3 of the season they dropped back 65% of the time, and after that 44% of the time. If he had the personnel to do so, he would throw it 40 times a game and eschew balance.

Not true.

"danmarino wrote:

Not true.

Okay ....

http://media.miamidolphins.com/transcripts/clyde-christensen-october-24-2016/

Offensive Coordinator Clyde Christensen

(Head Coach Adam Gase mentioned that you guys need some new running plays because you’ve used them all. Is that what the next two weeks are going to be about?) – “Yes. He gets that rash from calling too many run plays, so we’ve got that under control. Calling the same run over and over gives him a little bit of a rash,

"jdang307 wrote:

Okay ....

http://media.miamidolphins.com/transcripts/clyde-christensen-october-24-2016/

You're not understanding the context. And you're, as per usual, cherry picking in order to justify your agenda.

Question: Head Coach Adam Gase mentioned that you guys need some new running plays because you’ve used them all. Is that what the next two weeks are going to be about

Christensen said, “Yes. He gets that rash from calling too many run plays, so we’ve got that under control. (laughter)

(Then he clarifies) "Calling the same run over and over gives him a little bit of a rash..."

No I've read the entire thing. It's a joke amongst them because he prefers pass plays. That's why they've ran out. The joke it appears is over your head.

Ask yourself why Gase would joke with the media that they've ran out of run plays. Offensive genius is telling his veteran coordinator to come up with new run plays at the end of October because they used them all already.

"jdang307 wrote:

No I've read the entire thing. It's a joke amongst them because he prefers pass plays. That's why they've ran out. The joke it appears is over your head.

Ask yourself why Gase would joke with the media that they've ran out of run plays. Offensive genius is telling his veteran coordinator to come up with new run plays at the end of October because they used them all already.

He came into the season with a scheme and plan. After the first 4-5 games that scheme didn't work because the o-line wasn't worth a shit. (Refer back to my previous post...the one you didn't seem to understand)

None of this proves that he "hates to run the ball". All it proves is that he's adaptable.

"Pauly wrote:

Lets do a perception -v- reality check.
Last year the NFL averaged 41.2% rushing on offensive plays without penalties involved.
Gase called 46.0% rushes.

Since we know that rushing% is strongly affected by scoreboard position lets break it down into when leading and when trailing.
NFL ahead: 50.3% rushing
Gase: 55.3% rushing

NFL behind: 34.8% rushing
Gase: 40.1% rushing

Just for comparison, in 2014/2015 in Lazor's offense the splits were 38.7% overall, 52.7% when ahead and 30.7% when behind.

You're bringing up an interesting point but the NFL average is insignificant. What's the average amongst teams with very good RBs like Ajayi? Let's say 1000+ yard rushers.

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"finsfandan wrote:

You're bringing up an interesting point but the NFL average is insignificant. What's the average amongst teams with very good RBs like Ajayi? Let's say 1000+ yard rushers.

Gase is around the means for all three (total run/pass ratio as well as for leading/trailing splits) if you let's say put the cutoff at 1200+ rushers. There are 7 teams: Dallas (Ezekiel Elliot), Chicago (Jordan Howard), Tennessee (DeMarco Murray), Miami (Ajayi), Pittsburgh (Le'Veon Bell), Buffalo (LeSean McCoy) and Arizona (David Johnson).

Mean total rush percentage of those teams is 45.1%, rush percentage while leading is 52.3%, and rush percentage while trailing is 38.7%. Compared to 45.9%, 55.3% and 40.2% for Miami as Pauly pointed out.

So I guess this shows Gase adapts to the talent he's given at RB, which is nice to know.

btw.. the range for all 3 run/pass ratios is pretty big. For total run/pass ratio among those 7 teams percentages go from 38.2% (Arizona) to 51% (Buffalo), for run/pass ratio while leading the range is 45.4% (Arizona) to 57.5% (Buffalo), and while trailing it's 27.8% (Arizona) to 46.4% (Buffalo).

Note that Arizona is always at the bottom of that list and Buffalo is always at the top. That suggests run/pass ratio is by design, which is also nice to know (obvious but nice to see some evidence for it).

So Gase is probably implementing such a run/pass ratio by design, and the data suggest it's because he has Ajayi.