Not sure what opinions are about Scott Wright and his mock drafts, but his latest update is out: http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

I'm not a fan of his latest pick for the Dolphins, but I can see his reasoning to some extent.

Switching out Sean Smith for Xavier Rhodes seems like a net wash to me. The reason for letting Smith walk as I understand it, because his contract with the Chiefs wasn't out of the ballpark, was because of system fit. While obviously not the same player, Rhodes seems to have a similar skillset to Smith, so where Wright states that "Rhodes would be a nice fit in the Dolphins scheme and could step into their starting lineup immediately", I think he's only half right. Rhodes would probably step into the starting line-up immediately, but I don't know that he's such a great system fit if the Dolphins are going to more of a zone-based scheme. Desmond Trufant seems more that guy, although as high as #12? I would question that. Not that Wright is correct, but in his mock, Trufant slips into the bottom of the first round at # 30 going to the Falcons.

Other notable names and my comments that seem to have some tie with Dolphins' fans hopes:

• Bjoern Warner checks in at # 10 going to the Titans. At # 12, I think the Dolphins absolutely are including DEs in their targets, especially all-around DEs that can pass rush, and Werner is certainly a guy to keep an eye on as to where he goes. If he falls to # 12, I think he's got to be at least a thought.

• Dee Milliner at # 6 to Cleveland here. Personally, I'd like Milliner, but I believe this mock is accurate in that he just won't be there when Miami selects.

• Lane Johnson slips in at # 11 going to San Diego, which seems like a reasonable guess. That concludes the big three tackles in the mock as Joeckel went # 1 overall to KC and Fisher went # 4 to the Eagles. If Miami wants one of the three definite first round tackles, say they don't address the tackle shortage in the rest of Free Agency (I think they will), then this mock says the Fins would have to trade up to get one. While I think this mock is likely correct that Joeckel, Fisher, and Johnson will be gone before Miami's pick, I don't see us trading up to fill the tackle void. Like I mentioned, I think we take care of getting a starting tackle in FA and draft one for depth later on... maybe a guy like Armistead.

• No WR is taken in this mock until the second half of the first round, and the first one taken is Cordarelle Patterson at # 17 by the Steelers. Personally, I find that questionable at best. Several teams need or might desire WRs in the first half of the round: Jets, Bills, Titans, Dolphins, Panthers to name a few. Because he seems to be in hot demand here at The Phins, it's worth noting that Tavon Austin finds himself taken at # 22, by our beloved Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams. Bitter pill if that happened, to say the least. Meanwhile, if this mock is accurate, and the Dolphins are sitting at # 12 with guys like Patterson, Austin, Carradine, Lotuleilei, and Richardson on the board along with Rhodes and Trufant, well, the Fins braintrust will have a lot to think about to say the least.

• Ezekiel Ansah and Jarvis Jones, two pass rushers that the Dolphins could be eyeing, come off the board at # 4 and # 8, respectively. Jones' spinal condition may push him down a bit more than that. If he's in play at # 12, he's another guy I'd jot down in that list in the above bullet.

• Right behind the Dolphins picks, as the list two bullets above allude to, come two DTs that may be in Jeff Ireland's thoughts. Star Lotuleilei and Sheldon Richardson. The Dolphins let Tony McDaniel walk, and at least for the moment Randy Starks and Paul Soliai are set to be UFAs next year. While I'd imagine Starks will sign something of a longer-term contract and I think Odrick will eventually move inside, depth at DE is something I believe Ireland believes is critical in the NFL. Is it first round critical in this draft? Maybe, maybe not. But I don't think it can be dismissed out of hand.

• Obviously, this list could go on and on, but I'll save everyone the grief, and the last guy I'll mention is Tyler Eifert being nabbed in this mock at # 27 by the Houston Texans. I've seen Eifert on some guys' wish lists around here as high as # 12, and while I think that's probably too early for Eifert, I do think he'll be a first rounder going right about the #20-#25 range. I'm no expert, but that just is my gut feel. For Miami, I think that means, first, not drafting him at # 12, but second, if they covet him, they'll need to be offering a couple/three picks to move back into the first round to get him. I don't think that outside the realm of possibility, but I think it's probably more likely that they keep their picks, and maybe grab a prospect like Gavin Escobar a bit later.

I'm not a guy who measures how close some of these draft websites come to nailing the actual NFL draft, so I don't know if Scott Wright is good at that or not. Plus, this wouldn't be the mock that would be measured - it would be Wright's final mock before the draft. However, I do enjoy his site, and I think he has decent insight on player rankings, player attributes, and team needs. As to this particular draft and his insight to the Dolphins, I think most outsiders will look at our team, as it stands today, and say the Dolphins are in dire need of a cornerback. I get that. How could they not? Heck, insiders see that, too. My counter to that is that Free Agency isn't done - I do imagine we'll pick up at least one CB, maybe two before FA ends - and the Dolphins can get CBs that fit their scheme and playmaker need at that position later in the draft (i.e. Jonathan Banks). In the end, I think it's no secret that the Dolphins biggest deficiency last year was scoring points. In today's NFL, point scoring is at a premium, and the Dolphins have been severely lacking in that ability for quite a few years now. Some of that has been addressed by FA this year, but I think there's more to do.

Anyhow, I'll stop droning on and welcome anyone else's thoughts? What do you think? Xavier Rhodes at # 12? How thrilled or disappointed would you be?

 

While I might think that Rhodes will give the Dolphins similar play to what Sean Smith gave them, the Dolphins brass may conclude much differently. And I may be dead wrong; they (obviously) study players longer and harder than I do. Additionally, it seems a lot of the mock drafts flying around cyberspace are at least mentioning Rhodes with the Dolphins, if not making him their pick. Just as an example, SBNation's Mocking the Draft http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/3/18/4117504/2013-nfl-mock-draft-free-agency-geno-smith-luke-joeckel names Rhodes as Miami's pick, as well.

 

Speculating on draft trades, well, they're just tough to forecast. If that deal was on the table, depending on who else was there, I'd probably pull the trigger on the trade. But again, just really difficult to guess at trade opps.

 

You're right about the theory and Wright's application (in both rounds, really), but I don't know that I'd be disappointed with taking Armstead there, especially if we snag a guy like Winston in FA. Winston's contract probably wouldn't be more than one or two years, and then, many folks here seem to want a fallback for Jonathan Martin or a guy to compete with him immediately. Armstead's probably raw, but he's got quick feet and the potential is there. He could be that guy. Pick 2b for a guy who may not start immediately? I think that's okay if we don't have any glaring holes, because if you do, then you probably will be applying that theory you mentioned.

 

I could roll with that.