Six more Points per Game to compete for a Post Season Spot in the AFC this year...
Good morning Dolfans...
I know that you need to score more points than your opponent to win games, but how much more do they need to score to have a significant chance to win them, and make a significant impact in the Post Season???
Today’s Offensive Production is yielding approximately 23 points per game on average, in the Regular Season. This is what is hitting the 15-17 spot of all 32 teams currently. Now this number has gone up a few points since the 2006 season where the norm was around 20-21 points through the same 15-17 spot.
So as we have noticed the league has been turned into a passer friendly league, scoring and big play potential is more common, from teams that have the Offensive fire power…
I decided to look into this stat specifically, which is how many points does a team require to score to significantly give themselves an overwhelming advantage to win the game…
Then I started with the average stat at number 15 of the last decade (2006), which was about 21 points per game, and the numbers came up like this. I picked all the games in this year’s first 8 weeks of this season (2012), which game me a large data point. That data point equaled to 235 teams game results…
Out of 140 team games results in scoring at least 21 points, 96 teams (69%) won the game, while another 44 teams (31%) lost…
Out of 95 team games results in scoring 20 or less points, 22 teams (23%) won the game, while another 73 teams (77%) lost…
Now, I am going to be using 24 points, which is one more point than the current average (23) to see what the data shows me, again for the current 2012 Season…
Out of 117 team games results in scoring at least 24 points, 87 teams (74%) won the game, while 30 teams (26%) lost…
Out of 118 team games results in scoring 23 or less points, 32 teams (27%) won the game, while another 86 teams (73%) lost…
So what does this data reflect to me personally??? That teams like the Dolphins, who scored on average 18 points per game last year, has to make up a difference of 6 points (TD) per game to statistically move into the Post Season…
Now the teams making to the Post Season combined averaged out 26.3 points per game…
The Colts and Redskins had the lowest average (22.3, and 23.6 points per game), while NE and Broncos had the highest average (34.8 and 30 points per game)…
This coming Season (2013), the FO and coaching staff, has put a product on the field that can rack up at least 1 TD more per game, for this team to be in a thick of a Play Off hunt, at least to put us in the middle of the AFC top 6 pack…
Can this team do it with a tougher SOS this year???
We will have to wait at least 7 more months to have a good feeling about it… at least stats wise…
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Draft guys that can score, or keep the other team from scoring.
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P h i N s A N i T y, Marco, GMJohnson and 4 others like this.
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Good read, interesting take. Scoring points is always good. Our D was good enough to keep us in games last year, bar the one blowout. Albeit, and already beat to death, I wanted nothing better than to choke the living **** out of our secondary in the Indy game.
Hopefully with some new toys on O, and a relatively good draft, we should be able to at least hang tough with NE this year and should be able to get in with a WC. -
thats why we need playmakers on offense, tavon austin, tyler eiffert, bailey, swope...guys who make plays, not players who won't touch the ball
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GMJohnson and unluckyluciano like this.
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Look, I know what you are trying to say, but don't be so obtuse. There are specific roles on offense that puts points on the board. There are roles on Defense who's primare purpose is to stop it. -
A positive performance at their jobs aids their specific positions, and a negative performance hinders.
You aren't looking or thinking hard enough if you don't think blocking has a significant impact on a teams offense and ability to score. It not being obvious if you're just following the ball does not mean it isn't there or important.Steve-Mo and Ohio Fanatic like this. -
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Fin D likes this. -
unluckyluciano likes this.
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GMJohnson and unluckyluciano like this.
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Also, you can pretty much use any element to make up for any other element. Including quarterbacking and coaching. -
Baltimore had one of the best pass blocking lines in league last year....result = Flacco having all day to throw TDs in the playoffs.
and the Bears haven't shown diddly squat. They have shown the ability to lose in the playoffs every year because they can't keep their QB upright. Now, the caveat is that some of that was Martz's fault in previous years. -
Larry Fitzgerald's performance this year should be a pretty crystal clear cautionary tale for this kind of thing. ~*Play Makers*~ are pretty easily damaged by of protection. Larry Fitzgerald has a legitimate argument for best wide receiver in the league and his production was horrifying this year.
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excellent
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People basically favor the stuff that is obvious and exciting over the stuff that is subtle but no less important. A guard that can single-handedly open a hole against whomever you put him against is not less valuable than a runningback capable of making the same run play success with poor blocking, but they never get regarded on equal ground.Stringer Bell and Disnardo like this. -
Would you be talking about Flacco's great protection if it was Hartline running under his Hail Mary, and not Jacoby Jones? -
They take the WR. Not because the WR is flashier. But because the top WR can do more things to help his team score than the top guard when compared to their average counterpart. The difference in production between an average guard and the best guard is negligible when compared to the difference between an average WR and the best. -
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MonstBlitz likes this.