I wouldn't be surprised if Tyler Thigpen were to beat out Henne in an open competition. The only issue is how much money Thigpen will be offered elsewhere.

 

If this team ends up with Tyler Thigpen as their starting QB, they will not win a whole lot of games.

 

I think they've pretty much totally announced that they don't have a lot of interest in Thigpen. Ireland basically said they would retain him if he were considered a RFA under the new ruleset, but didn't seem interested otherwise.

 

I think we'll know by preseason whether or not Chad Henne is failing to turn a corner.

 

Yeah, I don't think we'll have to wait until mid-season to make an accurate assessment.

 

And how often do they let players they wish to retain hit the open market?

 

Yes, they essentially have. They had a period to re-sign players early in the offseason before the lockout started, they did so with Ritchie Incognito. Teams knew damn well that there was a strong possibility that their RFA tags would change for players with 4+years in the league, and that they should find some means other than that tag if they wanted to retain those players, and they chose not to without any idea if they would have any other chance to exclusively court their own free agents.

 

and this is based on what?...

Not criticizing, but really...

Michael Vick... does everyone understand that he had only one year in his first 6 years where he actually had a 81 QBR??? The other he was below 78...

It is amazing that he has had the success he has had over the last 2 seasons...

So going back to Thigpen...

Against Tenn he had a short stint and had a 140+ QBR... with an averrage of 10.00 YPA... No INTS...

Against last NE he had a 91 QBR, with a 8.00 YPA... no INTS...

It was against Chicago that he had issues, or you could say that the OL had issues... Can't Blame the QB on that game alone...

I know everyone sees that first NE game where he came in for Henne at the end, and NE was bringing in the kitchen sink... poor game in deed... all 6 attempts...

but lets not criticize his arm strength and talent, if then we can criticize Vick also, did not show much as an effecient QB in his first 6 years...

 

You're acting like we should base a judgment of a guy's entire career on 7 or 8 preseason throws. This is a bad characterization for a number of reasons. Firstly, Chad Henne will be getting more than 7 or 8 preseason throws. He'll probably get more like 40 or 50 of them, especially since it's a new offense. Secondly, you're forgetting that the guy has already had three training camps and preseasons under his belt, will be in the midst of his fourth training camp and preseason, and he's had 1100 regular season passing reps. You're not making an evaluation on a guy's career based on 7 or 8 throws. He's being afforded a chance to show trajectory and he should account himself lucky to even be afforded that chance because by all means most teams would have closed the book on him by now.

Based on my studies, good QBs tend to do at least as good in preseason than they do in the regular season. If we get out of excuse-making mode we should be able to recognize that things should be even easier in the preseason versus vanilla defenses than in the regular season. Henne's preseason QB ratings have mirrored his regular season QB ratings almost perfectly...mid-70's. Since 2006 when preseason stats started to be compiled more consistently, something like 6 of the top 7 preseason QB Ratings come from Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Phil Rivers, Drew Brees and Matt Schaub. Unsurprisingly, they're consistently good QBs in the regular season as well.

I'm not saying if Henne knocks the preseason out of the park he's guaranteed to do well, because there are guys like Drew Stanton, Tarvaris Jackson and Trent Edwards who consistently do very well in preseason but can't put it together in the regular season. As I said, preseason should be EASIER.

But there aren't many with sub-85 preseason QB Ratings who would still be considered franchise QBs, and those that do show that tendency tend to have extenuating circumstances. For instance Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Josh Freeman and Matt Stafford are four guys with sub-85 preseason ratings but I think most people would consider them all to be franchise QBs. What's the commonality between them? The fact that if you discount each of their rookie preseasons, their preseason QB Ratings are indeed also 85+.

 

Depends, Ireland is a stickler for paying his contract number and not a penny over it, Thiggy could not find the market he had hoped to find and reconsider whatever offer Ireland made prior to FA.

Though I fully expect him to land in Buffalo.

 

Yep, learned the hard way with the Sparano phins what we see in the preseason is the performance we should expect in the regular season.

The one real quibble is in back to back preseasons Henne has played at least one preseason game in a monsoon.

 

Here is a list of QBs whose non-rookie preseason ratings have been 85+, from 2006 to present.

Josh Freeman
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Drew Stanton
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Matt Schaub
Phil Rivers
Jon Kitna
Jay Cutler
Matt Hasselbeck
Carson Palmer
Matthew Stafford
Joe Flacco
David Garrard
Tarvaris Jackson
Donovan McNabb
Matt Leinart
Seneca Wallace
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Caleb Hanie
Tony Romo
Josh Johnson
Matt Ryan

Now here is the list of QBs whose non-rookie preseason ratings have been sub-85, from 2006 to present.

Trent Edwards
Rex Grossman
Ryan Fitzpatrick
John Beck
Brady Quinn
Matt Flynn
Matt Cassel
Kyle Orton
Vince Young
Mark Sanchez
Chad Henne
Derek Anderson
Kevin Kolb
Jason Campbell
Charlie Whitehurst
Alex Smith
Marc Bulger
Troy Smith
Tyler Thigpen
Shaun Hill
Matt Moore

One of these groups is not like the other. You'll notice that 18 of the 25 in the first group either are now currently considered or have until very recently been considered long term franchise starters at QB. On the other hand, pretty much only Matt Cassel can claim the same of the lower group of 21 quarterbacks. And it wouldn't shock me if a year from now people in Kansas City are starting to wonder if they shouldn't draft someone else.

 

Young's QBR was 90% in 2010.

 

That's true. It directly foreshadowed what would end up statistically a pretty good season for Vince. Is that the beginning of a trend? Or was it a blip on the radar?

 

How many of those QB's were trying to learn a new system with only a week or two of coaching? I think what Travis is saying that nobody really expects Henne to do well in this preseason. I agree with him, I think it's going to be a big time struggle early on.

 

Two consecutive yrs of improvement as a passer is one of the reasons why I like Young for us, add in excellent Depth in Henne if Young goes down and he makes sense, no draft pick to acquire, probably work for a 1 yr deal, good depth to counter his health issues.

 

Its based off of watching him since he's came into the NFL. He plays like he has a firecracker in his hand and his *** is on fire. His accuracy is inconsistent and he can't settle down.

 

The # of pass attempts does not bear evidence to your assumption.

 

Wrong from my point of view.... Everyone believes certain folks here are giving Henne a pass.
My expectations are high for him. Never would think otherwise.
You would think the adversity he faced last season would only make him better.

 

I would agree with you if he was going into this year under the same system. I would agree with you 100% then. This year has to be different.

 

There is no way in hell I would ever want Henne going back into that same system.
Hell or high water.
It was zero development process.

 

I agree, what I'm trying to say is that its going to take some time for Henne and all the O players to learn the new system. Their only going to have a couple of weeks with coaches before the first game. They've missed out all spring and summer with the coaches.

 

Tou seen Peyton? He has happy feet, had it all his career, but it does not hurt his game... his accuracy is not an issue...

I agree Thiggy is inconsistant, and there could be causes for that... Not excusing him... but he has been brought into games lately when the OL is a walking doormat and or at the end of games when defenses smell blood...

The kid had an effecient game against NE, being thrown into a situation, where he does not know when he would get pulled for making a mistake...

Alen, you would have had happy feet playing for Sporano last year...:tongue2:

 

I watched all of Tyler Thigpen's throws with the Chiefs back when the Dolphins first got him. He's not accurate enough to start games, unless he displays top notch decision making, patience and timing. He hasn't displayed any of those things. I don't know why you're so stuck on him disnardo but I don't think he's talented enough to start football games. I agree with Alen. Chad Henne is a better player.

 

I don't think Peyton's happy feet are the same as Thigpen's, no.

 

No worries CK, I am not stuck on him...

Just that when you see a guy like Vick make a turnaround after 6 years... you might have to give them the benefit of a doubt... now I did say might...

I don't have an ounce of measuring talent, and I trust your input as well as Alen's...

Seen that Chicago game first hand, I felt sorry for Thigy, being placed in there with No Offensive Line no Running Game and one good WR...

but late in the year, the Dolphins Offense looked horrible, and it was just about horrible all year long in the 2 minute drill...

 

their process is the same, the outcome is very very different...

 

I respectfully disagree.

I don't agree with this either. I enjoy reading your opinion.

 

It's not just the system though. Henne is going to need to show consistency in his decision making. Granted, a new system makes that a bit more difficult, but at the same time Chad can't keep up the Jeckyl and Hyde routine he's shown since his days at Michigan.

 

Well if we see Henne improve his QB effeciency this year, then we could say that he was not coached and placed under an Offensive scheme that was not endearing to his talent...

If he shows the same inconsistancy, then we will continue to look for a "franchise QB"...

 

Alen, I am opened minded, and really base my opinions of stats...

I apreciate your points of views, as well as others who gage talent on a visual level, and not just a statistical one...

 

I seriously doubt he is a Dolphin in a week.

 

both Henne & Thigpen are legitimate options. we need to bring in a third veteran QB with a significant up-side looking for an opportunity to compete & possibly start to get the best out of the stable.

 

I have to disagree. Thigpen is not a legitimate option. He wants a chance to start. He will be well regarded by other teams that are willing to give him a chance to start. He will be offered money the Dolphins are not willing to pay. He will not be a Dolphin soon. I like the guy and would like to say he is an option. I can't, because he is not. There are at least three teams that would allow him to battle for a starting spot. We are not one of them. We will not pay him 3 mill a year to back up Henne. He will get his money.

 

Friend huck1974:

I can hardly imagine what idiot would simply ordain Chad Henne the starter after last years' fiasco.
Thigpen, like Henne should have the opportunity to win the position, as well as the veteran we acquire during free-agency. we need open competition in the stable to establish the best possible man for the job.
let them prove their merit under the pressure of a legitimate & vigorous competition.
the biggest mistake Sparano made last year was to turn over the team to an unproven & undeserving commodity. I would be shocked & disappointed if Sparano made the same mistake twice.

give Henne some legitimate & vigorous competition & let him develop & compete for the start. if he has it in him, he'll be the our next Franchise QB, if not it will become obvious through the competition. Chad Henne needs to make his bones in the NFL in 2011 without complaint or excuse.