Which strategy is more advantageous for the future of the franchise? While there's a case to be made for both sides, here's why I favor trading up:
http://youngspeaksports.com/2015/04/14/to-trade-up-or-down-that-is-the-question/
Note that I don't suggest a trade up in any scenario. I certainly don't want to see Miami trade the farm to move up to a pick such as #4, but if one of Cooper/White falls to New York, I don't see how Miami doesn't try to trade up. The Dolphins need star talent; mid-round picks are often overvalued among NFL circles.
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Right now I'm thinking we should stay put unless a really good deal comes up in our favor for either a trade up or trade down. I think there will be some quality players left at 14th, and I think we can pretty much pick any position besides QB as of right now.
The one scenario I'm leaning towards right now is to draft Gurley in the first, the best available guard (or tackle to convert, a la Billy Turner) in the second, and sign Greg Jennings... that combination gives us a playoff caliber offense, IMO. -
I have my reservations about Gurley... Why not draft a receiver round one and add Jennings (that settles WR fantastically), draft a guard in round two, then a RB and LB/CB in round five? Running back has been the one position where a team can find a quality player late. Fortunately, Miami already has a good back in Lamar Miller, so it's not a dire need. Adding a fifth round back alongside Miller and Williams will more than suffice. A first round pick on a running back would be quite the luxury selection.
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I agree that RB is not a dire need, but I'm more in favor of finding elite talent in the draft, and that's what Gurley is, if his knee checked out ok... he could have the impact of a Marshawn Lynch/Adrian Peterson on the offense... there's also the fact that Miller's rookie contract is up next season.
I'd like a good WR as well, but I suspect neither one of the top 2 will be there at 14th, and after them there's a dropoff, IMO, and no one worth taking at that pick. Basically my argument is that Gurley will be the best available talent at the 14th pick and that's why I'd take him, hell, he might even be gone by our pick.
If we add both Jennings and a WR in the first round, we'd have a lot of talent at the WR position, sure, but there's only one ball to go around. We'd have good players not being utilized which is a waste of resources, IMO. We already have Landry and Stills, which are projected to be among the top 3 WRs. Then we've got Matthews which has shown a lot of potential, and I think could be poised for a breakout year. We've also got Hazel which the staff seems to like.. then we'd have Jennings and another highly rated WR. If we do take a WR high, I don't think Jennings would be signed, it would just be too much of an investment into one position. -
It's not the knee that scares me with Gurley - it's his inability to stay healthy in all aspects. Many forget his ankle injury from his sophomore year as well as the multitude of other injuries he's been plagued with during his tenure at UGA.
I'm not suggesting Miami should take a wide receiver at #14. I do believe White and Cooper are the upper-echelon, but DeVante Parker isn't that far behind. Parker would be a solid selection - if he's available. It would be a nightmare for Miami to select anyone but those three at #14.
I don't believe adding Jennings resolves the wide receiver issue. Grabbing a first round receiver and Jennings would sure up a corps consisting of Landry, Stills, Jennings, and Cooper/White. Each receiver adds in his own flavor. (Also note that Jennings would primarily be a veteran presence, not necessarily that elite receiver Miami lacks.) You're asking for trouble if you're counting on Rishard Matthews or Matt Hazel. Not proven commodities.
Ultimately, Miami either needs to trade up or trade back. To me, sticking at 14 makes the least sense. No prospect likely to be available is a game changer who fills a Dolphins' need. If no trade up, the Dolphins might as well trade back 5-10 spots to add some more ammunition.resnor and cuchulainn like this. -
Do we really need "proven commodities" as the 4th and 5th WRs though? How many combined receptions will the 4th and 5th receivers have in the season? Maybe 50, tops... that is not enough to warrant high investment in, IMO... and I do think Hazel and Matthews can man those 4th and 5th spots pretty well. What you're not counting is that Jordan Cameron is going to steal some of those targets, as well.
I think when it is all said and done, Stills, Landry and Cameron are going to account for about 60% of the receptions. That leaves 40% for Jennings, Matthews, Hazel, Sims, and the other rookie WR. We can assume Jennings is going to get the bulk of those receptions, so that would leave maybe 25% to be divided among 4 players... any way you slice it, someone is going to be underutilized, unless one of the other guys get traded or cut, which I don't believe will happen. Remember, we already used a 3rd round pick on a WR (Stills,) if we draft one in the first and also sign Jennings, it'll be like we used a 1st, 3rd, and signed a FA in that lone position in one offseason... waste of resources, IMO.
And as for the trade up or down, as I said before, I think we should only do it if we get an amazing offer, something like an extra second to move down a few spots, or a 2016 second to move up into the top 10. -
What if Jennings, Stills, or Landry were to get injured? Do we want the Phins rolling out Matthews and having to rely on him? Also, we're talking as if Jennings is already on the roster. As of this moment, the Dolphins wide receiver group consists of Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Rishard Matthews, and Jordan Cameron. Obviously, that group is lacking an alpha dog. The impact Cooper or White could have on the offense is greater than any other position upgrade on the team. Miami needs to seek elite players with star potential at the receiver position, because an elite receiver will open up space for everyone else to work.
I don't understand your reluctance in trading down. If Miami can add a prospect of equal talent and value seven picks later, why not pick up an extra 2nd/3rd?77FinFan likes this. -
That logic can be applied to any position... and yes, I'd be comfortable with Matthews as a 3rd or 2nd receiver, if someone gets injured... you don't need to have starter quality players at backup positions, they just need to fill in and hopefully pick up the slack, but they likely won't be as good as the person in front of them, which is why they are backups.
And no, I'm merely saying if we DO get Jennings, we shouldn't go after a WR early in the draft, unless one of White or Cooper falls on our laps.
I think you're misinterpreting what I said. I do believe we need to add someone to that WR group... be it Greg Jennings or a WR through the draft (but not both). All I said in my first post was that my ideal scenario would be Gurley in the first, a guard in the second, and Jennings in FA... it doesn't necessarily mean that's what needs to happen, since there are many variables involved that could change the outcome (i.e, Gurley not being available, a top WR falls to us, Jennings not signing with us, etc.)
This certainly depends on what happens draft day, but I think a top 10 talent is going to fall to us in the 14th pick, but if we drop down to the 20's, that top 10 talent won't be there anymore. It's a matter of if you want 2 solid contributors or one potential high-end player, and I'd go with the latter. Trading up is also a possibility, but you have to be sure that the guy who you're going to get if you trade up will be significantly better than someone who might be there at the 14th pick... and I just don't think that will be the case to warrant giving up a 2016 1st, or something like that. -
I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree about Rishard Matthews. He has some talent, but I don't want to see an offense where he's listed as anything better than the fourth wide receiver.
My main point is that I don't want to just add another guy to the WR group; I want to see Miami get "THE GUY." Another mid-level receiver doesn't make much of an impact in Miami, because as you've noted, it already has a group of three to four young mid-level or specialty receivers. I see the trade-up as invaluable because it finally gives Tannehill a legitimate, elite option. Moving up from #14 to #9 wouldn't cost much (a 4th this year and 3rd next year), and the difference in the player (Kevin White) is much greater than someone such as DeVante Parker or an offensive lineman at #14. Gurley could be of value at 14, but I don't believe a healthy Gurley (which is a big "if") equals the value of a Kevin White or Amari Cooper.
I understand your sentiment in your last paragraph, and I completely agree. If a top ten talent does fall, select him. I'm assuming the likes of Waynes, Shelton, Cooper/White, and even Parker are gone, though, so that's why I raised the question. I understand what you're claiming, and I'm certainly a proponent of taking talent when you're granted the chance. -
If we can manage a trade like this and snag Kevin White, I'd be all for it... he's elite talent, IMO. If it takes more than that, though, like say a 2016 1st, then that is a trade I wouldn't be willing to make, because I believe that some other elite talent who is comparable to White will make it to the 14th pick...
And on the second bolded sentence, you may be right, but we wouldn't be comparing only Todd Gurley with Kevin White, we'd be comparing White with Gurley plus the pick that it takes to move up. To me, Gurley + any pick higher than a 3rd rounder (or higher than a 2016 2nd) > Kevin White.
On the third bolded sentece: if by some strange chance, none of the guys you stated are there, and Gurley isn't there either, then yes, I would try to trade down. -
Makes sense. The trade I suggested adds up points-wise, but if Miami were to have to give up much more than that, I'm not for the trade-up. Again, it has to make sense value-wise.
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The NE Patriots had two star players, one on offense and one on defense. They beat a team with multiple star players on both sides of the ball. Just sayin'.
The receivers on this team may not be big names, but I don't see the production falloff from last season. We were pretty good on offense, for the most part. Kenny Stills is interchangeable with Mike Wallace as far as skill set is concerned. He may even be a more well rounded WR in the end. Cameron is a better receiver than Clay. In fact, Cameron has the potential to put his name next to Jimmy Graham as far as talent goes. Hartline and Gibson didn't do much for us in this system, and I don't think it's a stretch to suggest Matthews could out produce both of them. And it's still entirely possible Miami will sign Greg Jennings, who would be a fantastic veteran pickup IMO.
La'el Collins, Danny Shelton, etc... could all make sense at 14, be great fits, and have an impact year one and the future. And selecting at 14 doesn't require Miami to give up another pick for a WR (Kenny Stills, 3rd rounder). I don't think Miami needs the star power of a #1 WR more than it needs to protect Ryan Tannehill. I don't think Miami needs the star power of a #1 WR more than it needs to get after the QB and stop the run.
If Cooper/White trade up is what Miami wants, OK. I won't be upset, but I also don't think it's absolutely necessary. Miami has needs/holes on both sides of the ball that need to be addressed and only two premium picks to fill those with. If Miami can trade down, acquire an additional 2nd or 3rd in the process, I'm all for it.Agua and Colorado Dolfan like this. -
I was on board with trading up but with our needs I hope we trade down and get extra 2nd or 3rd round and fix our line backing corp. an go after Jennings and add another vet wr
this is how I hope the draft goes.
we trade down to 20 th and pick up a extra 2nd and 4th rd pick and draft
LINEBACKER
OFFENSIVE GUARD
LINEBACKER
RUNING BACK
OFFENSIVE TACKLE OR GUARD.
QB FOR DEPTH
AND draft a defensive back in mid round -
Technically, I would say NE had three star players (Brady, Gronk, Revis), all who arguably the best players at their position.
I certainly hope there wouldn't be a falloff from last year, but what Miami knows right now is that it possesses no receivers it can truly count on for production. Jarvis Landry was only a rookie last year, so I need to see another year from him before I know he can be trusted upon as a staple of the offense. (Also consider that he thrives in the slot, not the outside.) Kenny Stills has never been a big part of the offense in New Orleans, mainly serving as a deep threat role - think Robert Meachem - for Drew Brees. Again, he's a specialty guy like Landry - maybe favoring Mike Wallace - but at least we knew what we had in Wallace. Then, you move on to Jordan Cameron, who, in a perfect world could play to Jimmy Graham's level. In the world we live in, he's a matchup nightmare who comes with concussion concerns. One more good knock to the noggin, and he's a Wes Welker. Rishard Matthews is the ultimate fan crush who never actually amounts to anything. We say, "If he was just given the opportunity, he'd be great." But why isn't he getting that opportunity? I have to believe the coach staff is more familiar with him than us.
You're too hypothetical. You rely on hope instead of what is the status quo of the situation. Miami's current WR crop consists of four question marks. I think it's vital that Miami go out and grab that elite receiver to not only aid in the other receiver's maturation but also the maturation of the offense as a whole. How do we expect Tannehill to play to his ability if he has no weapons? The Dolphins cannot allow an inexperienced and possible bad WR core hold back a team that could make a run at the playoffs; you're ruining good years with Wake, Suh, Grimes, Vernon, Miller, and Tannehill by taking chances on the WR group. If things go awry (such as a Landry sophomore slump, Cameron's concussions), Suh's contract goes to waste.
I understand the offensive guard situation needs some attention, but that doesn't mean it needs to be addressed in the first round. There will be several perfectly capable offensive guards in the second round; the second round doesn't have a Kevin White. Also, as of right now, Miami doesn't have an issue with getting after the QB and (hopefully) stopping the run now with Suh. -
That's not sayin anyting. As SG mentioned, they have at least 3 - Brady, Gronk and Revis, and arguably they are tops at their position. The 'Hawks also had some stars (namely Sherman and Thomas) at reduced capacity. We need the star power to compete with the Pats. We currently have Suh and .... Suh. Tanne we hope makes a leap. If we can add Cooper or White that would help immensely. I would agree with SG here - if they make it to a spot where it is a reasonable tradeup, pull the trigger. If not, see if Parker is available at 14. If not, move back. We can get a lineman (O or D) or linebackers or DBs later in the round without sacrificing much in terms of talent.
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True, forgot about Gronk. Even still, the NE Patriots built a complete team and didn't rely on stars.
Kenny Stills had a more productive season than Mike Wallace. He's familiar with the spread offense from OU and a better fit for the scheme. Not to mention Wallace had zero chemistry with Tannehill. No Guarantee Stills will have more, but it can't be less. And he's 22 and his talent is on the rise. I'd take Stills > Wallace every time at this point. I'm not worried about Cameron's concussions. Too much is being made of it. He's also wearing a special helmet. I'd also point out Clay was injured all year and didn't do squat and our offense still finished in the top half of the league. So even if Cameron gets hurt, it's not going to be a big step back from last year. And Matthews isn't my crush by any means, but if you don't think he can't out produce 35 catches and a few hundred yards, he needs to be cut. And if Miami does sign a WR as they've given all indications they will, then we'll be fine.
You say I'm being too hypothetical, and in the same paragraph go on to talk about sophomore slumps, injuries, and talk of white/cooper as rookie pro bowlers. Protecting Ryan Tannehill is a higher priority at this point than WR. Miami signed high priced weapons for Tannehill in 2013, drafted flash (Dion Jordan) over Lane Johnson and Tannehill got murdered. And our 2014 offense struggled with inconsistency once Albert went down. I think there's a better case for La'el Collins than Cooper/White, who can play G/LT.
LB, DB, DT, OL, are all more important than WR in terms of need. If Miami deems Cooper/White as worthy of a trade up based on a combination of need and talent, OK. But if it was me, I wouldn't trade up unless it was a bargain. -
The only player I would truly trade up for is Leonard Williams, who would instantly give us the best DLine in the NFL.
Add a Paul Dawson on the second day, and I might say the same about the entire front seven.
Plus, say, a Steven Nelson on the third day? That's a top three defense if everyone does their job. -
Kenny Stills stats: 63 rec, 931 yards, 3 TD's
Mike Wallace stats: 67 rec, 862 yards, 10 TD's
While I understand the notion that Stills is cheaper and younger, it's unfair to say he outproduced Wallace last year. I like the move for the franchise's sake, but we don't know that Stills can carry the load.
As for the hypothetical statement, I was simply re-emphasizing my earlier point that those players are question marks. That's why WR is the biggest need on the team. It's fine and dandy to have young talent, but there needs to be some security - and it's not even elite talent; it's mid-level talent. It doesn't make sense to waste paying Ndamukong Suh so much money over the next few years if you're going to place your hope in the belief that several mid-level unproven receivers will pan out. To ensure Miami receives the necessary production from the receiver, I believe it needs to add an elite young talent and a veteran presence. In that instance, the Dolphins know Greg Jennings will produce. They have a strong belief that Cooper/White work out, and then if both Stills and Landry continue to improve their play, then fantastic! You have four legitimate weapons and probably get rid of Jennings after year one or two. Heck, even if things somehow work perfectly and Matthews proves to be a commodity, ship him off for a draft pick. That scenario would mean everything goes perfectly, though, and we know that's not going to happen.
Defensive tackle is not really a major concern with Suh in the mix. The offensive line obviously needs an upgrade at offensive guard, but why can that not be achieved in the second round? Miami has already invested 1st rounders into the line, and I doubt it goes down that path again. Linebacker already has pieces in line and doesn't have to be stacked across the board with Suh in front. A rookie defensive back isn't going to make a big impact in Coyle's system anyway, so it won't improve much this upcoming season with a first round selection. Jamar Taylor or Will Davis will need to improve in any scenario. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
Damn...for a second there I thought we were gonna get a story about the camera operator and ball manager :( -
The problem with trading up:
Everybody on this planet knows that if Miami trades up, it's in an attempt to get Cooper or White. That means we'll lose leverage in the negotiations. Since we don't have a 3rd round pick, teams are going to look towards our 2nd round pick for compensation. If that doesn't happen, we'll probably have to give up our 2nd next year. None of that sounds appealing.
The problem with trading down:
This is a bad year to trade back because there aren't many teams that need to trade up, nor good players who teams are going to want to draft at #14. That means that Miami will again lose leverage in negotiations. Trading down also means Miami taking a risk and leaving players on the board. Is it really worth it to trade back and take that risk if you wind up with the same guy at #18 or #20 that you would've drafted at #14 just so you could acquire an extra 4th round pick?