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Tua 2nd most effective deep passer in 2022

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by FinFaninBuffalo, Jun 2, 2023.

  1. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This is precisely why I'll still call you a Tua-hater. You're not even willing to consider the possibility that Tua himself could be elite. As long as he does well with Hill and Waddle, you'll just keep ascribing all the credit to the WRs. It's ridiculous.

    From a pure statistical point of view there's no way an average QB will repeatedly put up high level stats just giving him elite WRs. The QB plays far too important a role for this to be possible except over shorter periods of time. Granted, one season is still small sample size. But if Tua plays well next year, I'm going to hammer home this point to you and anyone else who keeps denying Tua credit.

    Half the discussion on this board about Tua has been about stuff he's not good at, and I think everyone agrees with his major flaws such as durability issues. People also acknowledged his late season collapse. The allergic reaction you get from some of us isn't because we're not willing to discuss Tua's flaws. It's because when Tua haters discuss it they use his flaws to explain away his successes and not give him proper credit, i.e., it's all the WRs etc.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No he was well above average early on, at least statistically.

    Brady z-scores:
    2001: 0.8084
    2002: 0.5665
    2003: 0.6719
    2004: 0.7495
    2005: 1.1214
    2006: 0.7350
    2007: 2.9871
    ..

    A z-score of 1 is the average level a SB winning QB plays at in the year he wins the SB, so Brady was pretty good early on. Not elite, but well above average.
     
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  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Poor choice of words by me. Let me re-phrase. Brady was nothing special early in his career. Decent player but not the all time great that he became. I only point it out because many like to pretend that "Brady was Brady" immediately and "Brees was Brees" immediately when discussing the development of young QBs.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'd like to point out, of the 10 threads that are at the top of the forum, the ONLY one that the people arguing with me (calling me a hater/troll) have replied in, over the past week, is this one. I see you guys saying you don't want to argue, and that you are going to start all sorts of new topics, but the only thing you do is post when I post.
    Wrong. I am not saying he can't be elite. I'm saying he's not right now, and if doesn't change/improve some things, I don't think he will be considered elite.

    Almost no QBs are elite, so I'm not sure how that makes me a hater. Please show me where Tua HAS EVER had great success WITHOUT elite receivers? This is simply a fact. In college, elite receivers, his one good season in the NFL, elite receivers. This is not me being a hater, this is me looking at facts. I don't care what you think, Tua has never put up elite stats without elite players around him. It's really that simple. I'm not saying he CAN'T do it. I'm saying that he currently HAS NOT done that.

    You all post almost nothing in the mains except arguing with me.
     
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  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    But your only concern is his health….
     
  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    So what?

    Tua has led the league in passer rating every season that his OL didn’t suck.

    Tua has led the league in passer rating every season that he had the support of his coach.
     
  8. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    That's still not "relentlessly mocking" someone.

    Geno Smith signed a 1yr/3.5m deal last season which is less than what Bridgewater made. Everyone in the league doesn't think much of Geno Smith. He is what he is. He then played well, and cashed in on a new deal. Good for him. However, no one would say Geno Smith is a top 10 guy despite leading many statistically categories, including the one mentioned in that thread.
     
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  9. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    "Stats show Tua was the 2nd most effective deep passer in the league last season."
    "Ha ha. Tua wasn't even close."
    "Really? He also had a ridiculously high YPA, which makes me believe he was an effective deep passer."
    "The same stats show that Geno Smith was the most effective deep passer. LOL."
    "Okay, if Tua wasn't an effective deep passer, who was?"
    "Somebody else, clearly."
    "Based on what?"
    "My eye test."

    We have some awfully intelligent posters who feel no embarrassment about creating awfully disingenuous posts.
     
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  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    My only concern regarding him being a long-term solution is his health.

    EVERY FREAKING QB HAS SOME LIMITATION THAT IS CONCERNING IF THEY GET IN THE WRONG SITUATION.

    WTF dude. It's like you are being intentionally obtuse.
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Give me some more cherry picked stats.

    I'll go with that every time he's lead the league he had one of the most elite receivers in the league, and another receiver who might end up elite. I'll go with he always had elite receivers and running backs in college.

    It's asinine to ignore those things.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This board would be dead without arguments over Tua. It has nothing to do with you per se, just the anti-Tua group you belong to right now.

    More importantly, you’re still not comprehending the issue with your own argument. You’ve made it impossible for Tua to ever prove he’s elite unless he puts up high level stats without Hill and Waddle. I’m saying that’s a ridiculous position. There’s no way you get sustained elite stats through surrounding cast alone over longer periods of time. If Tua sustains high level play with Hill and Waddle then yes he’s a top level QB. He doesn’t need to prove anything without them to be elite.
     
  13. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I'm wondering if Mahomes shouldn't be considered to be elite since he's always played with exceptional playmakers. And *cough cough* Justin Herbert. Hill played with future hall of famer Mahomes for years, yet had his best season with Tua as his thrower. Coincidence?

    Personally, I'll go on record as saying Tua had a superior season in 2022 but I'll withhold calling him "elite" until he does it again. And I'll agree that until he shows that he can stay on the field, the jury is still out on whether he's the long-term answer under center for the Dolphins. I'd hope we could all agree that there are questions about him. But I'd also hope we could agree that those of us who are bullish on him have a good reason to be.

    We're all entitled to our opinions and just because somebody disagrees with us, it doesn't make them wrong. Now, when my guy throws for 469 yards and 6 touchdowns in what will become a legendary performance and Dolphins fans say it was overrated because he did most of that in the 4th quarter of a comeback win, it's safe to say that the person making the point is wrong. We don't need to argue for sake of argument. We don't need to disagree for sake of being disagreeable.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't think they're arguing just for the sake of it. They're simply unwilling to move away from pre-draft opinions. It's human, but it doesn't give them any credibility. If they never had any pre-draft views (e.g., if Tua was on another team) I'm pretty sure they'd view Tua in a more positive light, except for possibly hitman where his fixation on arm strength irrespective of actual performance seems to apply in general.

    Really the most important eval should be of your own predictions. When you constantly get it wrong — Tua constantly proved predictions by the anti-Tua crowd wrong last year except for the durability issue — then you really need to change your assumptions.
     
  15. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Did you watch any Seahawks games last year?
    I did because I thought there must be some kind of mistake about the passer rating Geno Smith was putting up by mid season. But after watching 3 games it was clear this isn’t the New York Jets version of Geno Smith.

    Also of note Geno Smith also played very well in 2021 in limited opportunities in relief of Russel Wilson, so it isn’t just ‘one outlier year’.

    I for one am happy to say Geno Smith is a top 10 guy based on how he has performed for the Seahawks. The real question is whether he is a top 5 guy. He isn’t doing highlight reel stuff like Mahomes or Allen, but he is being steady, reliable and mistake free.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Here is the problem: I'm. Not. Anti. Tua.

    You can continue to misrepresent my position, you can continue to think what you want, but by continuing to ascribe motives to me that I do not have, you do nothing but create arguments.

    I'm simply pointing out, you guys are trolling me. You respond to every post I make, even if I don't post for a week. You don't post in other threads. You aren't creating threads.

    You simply post to argue with me, even when I'm not talking to you at all. It's ridiculous.

    Also, your statements make it clear that you never played organized sports.
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Res…. Stop.. your are not the victim

    We’re not stupid you’re notfair and balanced in your posting

    I’ve seen you thank troll posts countless times so be prepared to be treated as such
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2023
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not misrepresenting anything. You categorically refuse to consider the possibility Tua could have been a major reason for his elite performance. Only someone who is anti-Tua takes a position like that with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

    And you of all people have no credibility saying others are misrepresenting your position. You constantly post contradictory arguments and then point to whichever one you want to to act like that post represents your actual position. Anti-Tua is correct, and as you can see many others here see through your “I’m the victim” act.
     
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  19. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Actually, I think they're holding hard to their opinions from the first year of his career, not necessarily from before the draft. I wasn't on this forum prior to his being selected, so I cannot speak from experience. But on Twitter and Facebook, a lot of folks dug in deep when Flo replaced Fitzpatrick with Tua and the receipts were less "I have my doubts about him" than they were "this guy sucks and was a waste of a pick". Many insisted he had no positive attributes.

    Now they are digging in deeper because they want to protect that credibility. Personally, if I crapped on my QB and he actually played well, I'd be ecstatic. But there are some Dolphins fans who actually will look at a 24 for 30 passing day and complain about the 6 passes that didn't connect. As I said, it doesn't make them wrong to hold different opinions from mine, but it makes them petty to pretend that a good performance is somehow something that should be criticized. We should all be able to offer praise and criticism as it's warranted. It sours the discussion when you realize some folks refuse to admit when they're obviously wrong.
     
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  20. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    The constant shift of the goalposts is the biggest problem here.

    The Tua can only be elite with elite players around him is the dumbest argument on here. If elite can help someone else be elite, what the hell is the problem? Unless you're a troll.

    Give me an elite quarterback in the league right now without an elite target to throw to?

    Dolphins fans should be happy they have an elite wide receiver, a future elite wide receiver and a distributor of the ball that can show off their elite talents.

    Buffalo is in absolute disarray right now, because their elite target isn't happy about their supposed elite quarterback was distributing the ball. Stefon Diggs is killing his quarterback behind closed doors right now. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are openly praising Tua and what he does for them.

    Wake up.
     
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  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    nonsense
     
  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Just LOL.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Oh, poor misunderstood Res…..
     
  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    my two statements were every bit as factual as yours. Stop deflecting.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2023
  25. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Stefon Diggs is begging out of Buffalo and canceling mini camps, meanwhile Tyreek Hill says his most accurate QB in the league is gonna get him 2000 yards this year.
     
  26. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No it definitely goes back pre-draft. The vitriol against Tua from the moment we picked him was amazing. Enjoy perusing the draft thread (start from page 4). Note hitman and Alex's anti-Tua views, same as today (Alex was later banned because his vitriol against Tua went too far, saying he wanted Tua to die). Page after page of vitriol. And there were many threads post-draft but before Tua played a single game with that same vitriol. And resnor will confirm that from before the draft he was skeptical about Tua because Tua was at Alabama with a great surrounding cast — same argument as today: it was all the surrounding cast.
    https://thephins.com/threads/the-official-miami-dolphins-2020-3-day-draft-thread.95134/page-4
     
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  28. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Bingo
     
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  29. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it's still a pretty big outlier. He has a career QB rating of 85. And playing well in 2021 in only 3 GS is pretty meaningless stuff.

    It's possible he figured things out later in his career. I think he's more in the 12-20 range, and he needs a repeat season to put him in top 10.
     
  30. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    In 30 starts with the Jets he had a 72.4 passer rating
    In 20 starts with the Seahawks he has a 101.1 rating.
    In his time with the chargers and giants he had a total of 40 attempts so we’re safe to ignore those seasons.

    Which is harder to believe - the Jets suck or Geno Smith sucks?
     
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  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well, this is precisely the problem. This is Resnor's position. He actually claims that Tua didn't play well at the beginning of the season because he wasn't equally good in every quarter..... But, he doesn't consider himself anti-Tua and cannot understand why people do......
     
  32. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    It can be both.
     
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  33. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The evidence says otherwise. Watch a few fukk Seahawks games from last year and you can see the evidence with your own eyes.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think Geno Smith is like Tua in that you need multiple years of evidence to conclude anything. However, Tua's gradual improvement to high level performance in year 3 is much more similar to what many QBs with sustained high level performance over a longer career do than Smith's much more anomalous elite level play after sitting on the bench for a long time lol.

    I'm far more comfortable predicting Tua will do well in year 4 than Smith. I think Smith regresses a lot, closer to an average QB. What he did if sustained would be the first time in NFL history that's ever happened. It's just too great an anomaly to think that's likely.
     
  35. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Steve Young?
    Sucked in Tampa, spent 4 years warming a bench in San Fran before getting the starting job.
    Jim Plunkett?
    Sucked in NEw England and San Fran. Spent a year warming the bench in Oakland before going to win 2 Superbowls as their starting QB.
     
  36. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    You've been around longer than I have. But as I've said before, Resnor was actually saying that Tua was playing well before the concussion in October. I'll give him credit for being able to admit that he was encouraged by his play. Meanwhile, some of the other posters were outright saying that starting the season with a win streak while putting up numbers we had not seen from a Dolphins QB in decades was meaningless. He doesn't need me to defend him and I won't do that. With that being said, I saw a few of his posts in late September and October (one is below) that made me think he was perhaps overly critical, but not a troll. That can't be said for everybody.

    https://thephins.com/threads/tua-is-not-the-problem.96818/page-71#post-3487849
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Young was an immediate hit in SF. That was his year 3. It took him 2 years to amass 150+ passing attempts but over his first 2 years his passer rating was 91.9 when the league average was mid-70's. Basically around 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. It only got better in the years afterwards.

    And Jim Plunkett was overall below average. Even in his SB years he was nothing special. In 1980 his passer rating was slightly below average, and in 1983 his z-score was 0.6109. As far as "sustained" performance, the very next year in 1984 his z-score was -0.7254. There was no season Plunkett had with 150+ passing attempts where his z-score was 1 or higher. And career-wise his z-score is -0.1130 so below average overall.

    No, if Geno Smith plays at top 7-ish level most years from here on out it's the first time in NFL history we'll have seen it. Not going to happen IMO. Too unlikely.
     
  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    resnor's not a troll, though he's solidly supported trolls a lot in the past (not just in this debate). Right now the problem he's having is that we're not falling for his attempt to have it both ways, certainly not the "I'm the victim" spiel.
     
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  39. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I don’t see it as player who gad to wait [N] years to be successful. I see it as a QB who failed with their first team then turned it around after a period of time as a backuo. There is a short list of QBs who have done that. Young, Plunkett, Rich Gannon possibly Earl Morrall and there may be one or two others I’ve forgotten.

    i see it more as very rare, but not unprecedented.
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Morrall takes us way back before the SB era. I think we need to leave him out of the discussion. Stats now don't really compare well to stats way back then (variance is off the charts way back then). But in the SB era there's no one quite like what you're predicting about Geno Smith: year-in year-out being top 10 as a starter from the outset with a new team after a long period as a failed QB (starter or backup).

    Plunkett never made the top 10 as a qualified starter (i.e., with minimum number of games started) until his last year. Rich Gannon did enjoy many seasons top 10 but not immediately. He needed many years to grow into it. And Young fits the mold of an elite QB in that he had success early by year 3. With Geno we're talking year 8. Very different situation.

    There's no one quite like what you're predicting. It's not just having success with another team. It's 7 years of being WAY below average (a full standard deviation below the mean) or not starting at all to suddenly being top 10 each year with a new team? Nope. No one.
     

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