Tua is not the Problem

"resnor wrote:

When you compare volume stats without considering the context, and compare two QBs with vastly different skill sets, it's cherry picking.

Like Key a couple posts up talking about Tua throwing deep in college. That's a cherry-picked stat

Key didn't mention a statistic. He just said Tua was good with the deep ball in college. That's not cherry picking, necessarily because Key specifically gave that example to demonstrate that just because Tua didn't throw deep doesn't mean that he can't.

It could be argued your own citing of YAC stats is cherry picking. By your own admission you see that stat as evidence that a QB isn't throwing his WRs open, thus it speaks badly of a QB, or in this case, Tua. However, that's just a stat that fits your narrative.

This is why debates on this stuff go round and round, because of how things are connected, contingent. Was Miami's poor YAC number due to Tua's inability to throw open, or was it due to WR's not getting separation, and was that due to Miami having short time to throw, and was that due to the OL, or was it play design, or what combination of all these?

"Galant wrote:

Key didn't mention a statistic. He just said Tua was good with the deep ball in college. That's not cherry picking, necessarily because Key specifically gave that example to demonstrate that just because Tua didn't throw deep doesn't mean that he can't.

It could be argued your own citing of YAC stats is cherry picking. By your own admission you see that stat as evidence that a QB isn't throwing his WRs open, thus it speaks badly of a QB, or in this case, Tua. However, that's just a stat that fits your narrative.

This is why debates on this stuff go round and round, because of how things are connected, contingent. Was Miami's poor YAC number due to Tua's inability to throw open, or was it due to WR's not getting separation, and was that due to Miami having short time to throw, and was that due to the OL, or was it play design, or what combination of all these?

you really really want to turn this into a semantic discussion.

"resnor wrote:

When you compare volume stats without considering the context, and compare two QBs with vastly different skill sets, it's cherry picking.

Like Key a couple posts up talking about Tua throwing deep in college. That's a cherry-picked stat

No it's not. If someone was open deep, Tua threw deep and he was accurate. Nothing cherry picked about that.

My only point is that Tua couldn't throw deep the past few seasons very often because the offense didn't allow it. We had a historically bad line combined with almost all our starting receivers on IR. That's not a recipe for any QB to throw deep.

"resnor wrote:

you really really want to turn this into a semantic discussion.

I asked what was meant by the term 'cherry picking' and you answered. That's a semantics discussion.

Seems like coach wants an accurate passer that can pass the ball to the receiver in stride. We have that QB, so hoping for the best. I'm OK with him throwing for 5 yards and the WR running 80 yards for a TD.

"dolphin25 wrote:

Seems like coach wants an accurate passer that can pass the ball to the receiver in stride. We have that QB, so hoping for the best. I'm OK with him throwing for 5 yards and the WR running 80 yards for a TD.

Yeah, or any combination of air yards + yards after the catch. How they get there doesn't matter...it's the end goal (a TD) that counts.

"Galant wrote:

I asked what was meant by the term 'cherry picking' and you answered. That's a semantics discussion.

"Tua can't swim".

"KeyFin wrote:

No it's not. If someone was open deep, Tua threw deep and he was accurate. Nothing cherry picked about that.

My only point is that Tua couldn't throw deep the past few seasons very often because the offense didn't allow it. We had a historically bad line combined with almost all our starting receivers on IR. That's not a recipe for any QB to throw deep.

Okie dokie.

We disagree vastly. Tua's deep throws in college weren't impressive. Here's my question:

Do you believe that the Dolphins can consistently put a team around Tua that is full of all-pros and is head and shoulders above almost every team in the league?

I ask that, because that is what Tua had at Alabama, and you are basing NFL projections off of college performance.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

"Tua can't swim".

Why you gotta be racist? Lol

"Galant wrote:

I asked what was meant by the term 'cherry picking' and you answered. That's a semantics discussion.

Referring to "deep balls" is, actually, a form of a statistic. In fact, deep balls is it's own stat.

"resnor wrote:

Why you gotta be racist? Lol

He's from Hawaii...of course he can swim.

"resnor wrote:

Okie dokie.

We disagree vastly. Tua's deep throws in college weren't impressive. Here's my question:

Do you believe that the Dolphins can consistently put a team around Tua that is full of all-pros and is head and shoulders above almost every team in the league?

I ask that, because that is what Tua had at Alabama, and you are basing NFL projections off of college performance.

Yes, I believe Tua can be that quarterback. He had three stud receivers at Alabama, and now he has three stud receivers with Miami (counting Gisecki...or Preston Williams when he's healthy). Do I think Miami will blow everyone out? Ehh, I think they have the potential to blow out bad/average teams and hang with the elite, which is also on par for Alabama vs. Clemson, LSU, Florida, Georgia, etc.

"KeyFin wrote:

Yes, I believe Tua can be that quarterback. He had three stud receivers at Alabama, and now he has three stud receivers with Miami (counting Gisecki...or Preston Williams when he's healthy). Do I think Miami will blow everyone out? Ehh, I think they have the potential to blow out bad/average teams and hang with the elite, which is also on par for Alabama vs. Clemson, LSU, Florida, Georgia, etc.

He had stud receivers, stud running backs, and a stud oline.

More than that, though, he does not have the talent disparity vs other teams that he had in college. Ignoring that is the most frustrating part of all this. Tua was effective running essentially an all SEC all star team.

"resnor wrote:

He had stud receivers, stud running backs, and a stud oline.

More than that, though, he does not have the talent disparity vs other teams that he had in college. Ignoring that is the most frustrating part of all this. Tua was effective running essentially an all SEC all star team.

I seem to remember Tua coming to national prominence with his play in the 2017 national championship game, where his substitution for Jalen Hurts was seen as the key factor in Alabama’s win. I also seem to remember him performing well in the 2018 post season and national championship game.
I must have some kind of problem with my memory because in my memory he performed well against the top college teams and in the college playoffs where he was QBing one college all star team against other college all star teams.

"Pauly wrote:

I seem to remember Tua coming to national prominence with his play in the 2017 national championship game, where his substitution for Jalen Hurts was seen as the key factor in Alabama’s win. I also seem to remember him performing well in the 2018 post season and national championship game.
I must have some kind of problem with my memory because in my memory he performed well against the top college teams and in the college playoffs where he was QBing one college all star team against other college all star teams.

None of my post had anything to do with his quality of play.

It has everything to do with what is required to get that level of play from him.

"resnor wrote:

None of my post had anything to do with his quality of play.

It has everything to do with what is required to get that level of play from him.

That's a fair point, but that's also the goal of every franchise...to build a complete team. No offense to any QB, but even if you put Mahommes or Allen in our offense last season we might win a few more, but we're still nowhere near real super bowl contenders. We'd be a playoff team and maybe the D carries us all the way, but that's not sustainable.

Guys like Manning or Marino who are elite for 15+ years are one in a million- you just can't count on hitting that lottery. Even someone like Watson; great player, but let's see where he is in five or seven years. My guess is he'll be out of the league entirely from carrying lousy teams and getting battered because of it. The same goes for Burrow...clearly a generational talent. But will he survive? That drives me nuts getting a player like that and not protecting him.

At least with Tua, he kept mostly clean in the pocket even with lousy protection. That doesn't speak to his ceiling, but it does say that if he gets there someday, he should at least have the longevity to pay off long-term. And I do agree with you, I don't know if he'll ever be Alabama Tua in Miami, but I do like where we're at today.

"KeyFin wrote:

That's a fair point, but that's also the goal of every franchise...to build a complete team. No offense to any QB, but even if you put Mahommes or Allen in our offense last season we might win a few more, but we're still nowhere near real super bowl contenders. We'd be a playoff team and maybe the D carries us all the way, but that's not sustainable.

Guys like Manning or Marino who are elite for 15+ years are one in a million- you just can't count on hitting that lottery. Even someone like Watson; great player, but let's see where he is in five or seven years. My guess is he'll be out of the league entirely from carrying lousy teams and getting battered because of it. The same goes for Burrow...clearly a generational talent. But will he survive? That drives me nuts getting a player like that and not protecting him.

At least with Tua, he kept mostly clean in the pocket even with lousy protection. That doesn't speak to his ceiling, but it does say that if he gets there someday, he should at least have the longevity to pay off long-term. And I do agree with you, I don't know if he'll ever be Alabama Tua in Miami, but I do like where we're at today.

I agree. But a complete team isn't an all-star team. Hopefully Tua doesn't require an all-star team.

"resnor wrote:

None of my post had anything to do with his quality of play.

It has everything to do with what is required to get that level of play from him.

Your own words - More than that, though, he does not have the talent disparity vs other teams that he had in college. Ignoring that is the most frustrating part of all this

You were attributing his college success to disparity of talent The fact that he was productive in games where he didn’t have talent disparity shows that his college success was not due to talent disparity.

Dan Marino’s best year was the year he had his best WRs, best OL and best defense.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1517571849139458049

Tua certainly seems to be putting in the hard yards this off-season, which is great to see.

"Phil Hutchings wrote:

Tua certainly seems to be putting in the hard yards this off-season, which is great to see.

To be fair, there are almost verbatim posts from last year.

"Pauly wrote:

Your own words - More than that, though, he does not have the talent disparity vs other teams that he had in college. Ignoring that is the most frustrating part of all this

You were attributing his college success to disparity of talent The fact that he was productive in games where he didn’t have talent disparity shows that his college success was not due to talent disparity.

Dan Marino’s best year was the year he had his best WRs, best OL and best defense.

Let me try again to explain what I meant...if you are projecting Tua's success in the NFL, based on college performance, then it's important to look at what he had around him in college, isn't it? If a guy plays on a stacked team, relative to their opponents, to put up good numbers, then is it reasonable to expect similar numbers in the NFL, if he doesn't have the same talent disparity that he enjoyed in college? I don't find that to be reasonable.

If you do, that's fine, but you should have concrete things to point to. I'm in complete agreement that with better players around him, we should expect an improvement in results.

And the argument about games where he was productive without disparity, are you talking college or NFL? Because my entire argument is that if we don't have one if the best teams in the league, then Tua won't have the same NFL success as he had in college.

"resnor wrote:

Let me try again to explain what I meant...if you are projecting Tua's success in the NFL, based on college performance, then it's important to look at what he had around him in college, isn't it? If a guy plays on a stacked team, relative to their opponents, to put up good numbers, then is it reasonable to expect similar numbers in the NFL, if he doesn't have the same talent disparity that he enjoyed in college? I don't find that to be reasonable.

If you do, that's fine, but you should have concrete things to point to. I'm in complete agreement that with better players around him, we should expect an improvement in results.

And the argument about games where he was productive without disparity, are you talking college or NFL? Because my entire argument is that if we don't have one if the best teams in the league, then Tua won't have the same NFL success as he had in college.

I don’t claim myself to be any kind of draft expert.
However what I look for is how the player performs against the top college teams, how they perform against the Idaho Community College for the Crippled and Blind doesn’t interest me. In big games on the big stage against the big boys Tua produced. Not just OK, but he legitimately played good football against the toughest opponent college football could provide.
My other criteria is to look at a player’s highlight reel. I want to see 5 things.
1) Can he beat opponents with physicality?
2) Can he beat opponents with technique/skill?
3) Can he beat opponents with mental toughness/perseverance?
4) Can he beat opponents with intelligence/scheme knowledge?
5) Can he beat high level opponents?
What scares me us when any of these elements are missing from a highlight reel. If he can’t do the first 4 against college opponents then he is extremely unlikely to be able to do it in the NFL.

Tua was unworthy of a first round pick. He doesn’t have an elite skill. He doesn’t have an elite arm, he doesn’t have elite speed, he doesn’t have elite quickness, he doesn’t have elite awareness and he doesn’t have elite size. The most you can say about him is he is very accurate with underneath throws.

"Serpico Jones wrote:

Tua was unworthy of a first round pick. He doesn’t have an elite skill. He doesn’t have an elite arm, he doesn’t have elite speed, he doesn’t have elite quickness, he doesn’t have elite awareness and he doesn’t have elite size. The most you can say about him is he is very accurate with underneath throws.

Agree.
Tua is Ted Ginn 2.0

"KeyFin wrote:

Yes, I believe Tua can be that quarterback. He had three stud receivers at Alabama, and now he has three stud receivers with Miami (counting Gisecki...or Preston Williams when he's healthy). Do I think Miami will blow everyone out? Ehh, I think they have the potential to blow out bad/average teams and hang with the elite, which is also on par for Alabama vs. Clemson, LSU, Florida, Georgia, etc.

Williams is number 5 on our roster at the moment.. theres no way you rank him higher than Wilson..