Tua is not the Problem
7076 repliesLocked
OwesOwn614Forum Veteran"FinFaninBuffalo wrote:
The exact same holes are in every zone defense. Every team has 11 defenders and is dropping somewhere between 5 and 8 defenders into coverage on any given play. Every team has the same opportunity to find holes in a zone defense. The differences with the Dolphins are:
1. Play design seems to be putting defenders in conflict on a more regular basis.
2. Tua is moving or holding defenders with his eyes.
3. Tua is throwing with anticipation so the defenders cannot close on the ball.
4. The receivers are running disciplined routes, especially routes that are designed to affect zone defenders and are not the intended targets of the pass.
5. Tua and the receivers are on the same page.
6. Tua is not getting fooled by disguised coverages.
You might want to add Waddle and Hill drawing attention from each other. The only real surprise for me is that Gesicki and WR3/WR4 aren't taking advantage of the coverages. Unless they are and Tua seldom has to move past his first or second read. I'd love to see Wilson/Sherfield get opportunities and to eventually get Ezukanma on the field.
Dol-Fan DupreeForum Veteran"OwesOwn614 wrote:
You might want to add Waddle and Hill drawing attention from each other. The only real surprise for me is that Gesicki and WR3/WR4 aren't taking advantage of the coverages. Unless they are and Tua seldom has to move past his first or second read. I'd love to see Wilson/Sherfield get opportunities and to eventually get Ezukanma on the field.
They kind of are. However defenses haven't been able to take away WR1 or WR2 enough for it to matter.
Holland is a huge upgrade over McCain
I want to be alive, I am alive! Alive, I tell you! Mother, I love you, those are no longer just words. I want to hold you, I want to run in a stream, I want to taste ice cream but not just put it in my mouth and let it slide down my throat but really eat it. - Robot Morty
FinatikStaff"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:
They kind of are. However defenses haven't been able to take away WR1 or WR2 enough for it to matter.
Or they are the ones clearing out for Waddle and Cheetah on the inside or dragging a defender to a specific position.
Lots of people will tell you what they think about you and what you shouldn't and should do. Not everyone's thoughts are worth consideration. Don't take criticism from anyone who you wouldn't also go to for advice.
"TheHighExhaulted wrote:
"Regularly under throwing"
Let me guess, you’re quoting something Hitman wrote? He’s such a moron. He couldn’t be more wrong and I’m sure he knows that this is 100% wrong. Every real expert breaking down Tua’s throws are saying the exact opposite… but he knows, right? He knows because “he’s watching the games”, amiright? Has he started lying about how he watched the all 22 also?
The guy is a troll. Stop responding to him and he’ll go back to the Jets/Bills/Pats forum. He’s NOT a Dolphins fan.
djphinfanSupporter"Finatik wrote:
Another crew member shows how welcoming they are. LoL
I didnt talk shit first like you did, didn't think you were that type, guess I was wrong..
yup, talk shit about a place you don't know that I respect, you'll get some shit back
FinatikStaff"djphinfan wrote:
I didnt talk **** first like you did, didn't think you were that type, guess I was wrong..
yup, talk **** about a place you don't know that I respect, you'll get some **** back
It was my experience with it. It's not yours because you're part of the crew. If you consider "that the format sucks and its not welcoming" talking shit then you don't know what talking shit is. Your reactions are what I saw happening and kinda proves my point. I'm feeling the "Lighten Up Francis" vibe from Sgt. Hulka about now. LoL. Sorry if I hit a nerve by throwing an egg at your clubhouse. I'll send someone over later to clean of the mess.
Lots of people will tell you what they think about you and what you shouldn't and should do. Not everyone's thoughts are worth consideration. Don't take criticism from anyone who you wouldn't also go to for advice.
djphinfanSupporterc-brad this is for you..
https://deadspin.com/tua-tagovailoa-is-the-real-deal-1849766672/amp
One good season does not guarantee future NFL success.
A much better determinator would be his analytics, and by golly, Tua’s advanced stats don’t just jump off the page, they grab you by the ears and scream profanities at you until you can’t deny Tua’s greatness anymore.
Let’s start with Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a percentage measurement of a quarterback’s efficiency over an average quarterback. Tua’s is insane. He leads the league in that category. The second-highest mark belongs to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. His DVOA checks in at 25.2 percent. Third, is San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo — probably didn’t expect him; I’ll touch more on his presence here in a moment — with 25.1 percent. Fourth is Philly’s Jalen Hurts at 19.9 percent. With those figures in mind, what could you possibly assume Tagovailoa’s figure is, hmm? Maybe high-20s, low-30s perhaps? Maybe he blows everyone out of the water and hits us with a 40 percent DVOA. That would be something, right? Well, Tua’s DVOA currently sits at 51 percent, more than double Mahomes’ figure.
...
let’s move to Yards Above Replacement (YAR). Think of this statistic like WAR in baseball, a cumulative figure that attempts to crunch a player’s value into a singular number, or in this case, yardage total. It’s a cumulative stat meaning that the more pass attempts a player has, the more likely they are to have a higher figure. Tua is second in the NFL with 888 YAR, four fewer than the league leader Mahomes (892). Tua has missed 2.5 games.
...
when we look at Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), which takes into account the quality of defense that each quarterback has played against. In that statistic, which is also cumulative, Tagovailoa leads the NFL, and it’s not all that close. His DYAR figure (909) is 48 points higher than Mahomes’ (861). The only quarterbacks to have a higher DYAR through nine games than Tua this year are 2004 Peyton Manning (MVP), 2006 Peyton Manning (third in MVP voting), and 2007 Tom Brady (MVP). That’s elite company, and once again, Tua has missed 2.5 games. I just want to reiterate that.
Even in regard to more traditional stats, Tua stands high above his competition. He’s first in the NFL in yards per attempt, first in average net yards per attempt, first in touchdown percentage, and first in QBR (purely a measurement of a quarterback’s play; Garoppolo ranks 23rd in that category by the way, just in case you weren’t convinced that McDaniel was covering Tua’s flaws). Those are numbers you can’t ignore, and if Tua hadn’t missed time with a concussion, he’d undoubtedly be the MVP frontrunner in my eyes.
Courtesy and posted By Cooch.
"djphinfan wrote:
c-brad this is for you..
https://deadspin.com/tua-tagovailoa-is-the-real-deal-1849766672/amp
One good season does not guarantee future NFL success.
A much better determinator would be his analytics, and by golly, Tua’s advanced stats don’t just jump off the page, they grab you by the ears and scream profanities at you until you can’t deny Tua’s greatness anymore.
Let’s start with Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a percentage measurement of a quarterback’s efficiency over an average quarterback. Tua’s is insane. He leads the league in that category. The second-highest mark belongs to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. His DVOA checks in at 25.2 percent. Third, is San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo — probably didn’t expect him; I’ll touch more on his presence here in a moment — with 25.1 percent. Fourth is Philly’s Jalen Hurts at 19.9 percent. With those figures in mind, what could you possibly assume Tagovailoa’s figure is, hmm? Maybe high-20s, low-30s perhaps? Maybe he blows everyone out of the water and hits us with a 40 percent DVOA. That would be something, right? Well, Tua’s DVOA currently sits at 51 percent, more than double Mahomes’ figure.
...
let’s move to Yards Above Replacement (YAR). Think of this statistic like WAR in baseball, a cumulative figure that attempts to crunch a player’s value into a singular number, or in this case, yardage total. It’s a cumulative stat meaning that the more pass attempts a player has, the more likely they are to have a higher figure. Tua is second in the NFL with 888 YAR, four fewer than the league leader Mahomes (892). Tua has missed 2.5 games.
...
when we look at Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), which takes into account the quality of defense that each quarterback has played against. In that statistic, which is also cumulative, Tagovailoa leads the NFL, and it’s not all that close. His DYAR figure (909) is 48 points higher than Mahomes’ (861). The only quarterbacks to have a higher DYAR through nine games than Tua this year are 2004 Peyton Manning (MVP), 2006 Peyton Manning (third in MVP voting), and 2007 Tom Brady (MVP). That’s elite company, and once again, Tua has missed 2.5 games. I just want to reiterate that.
Even in regard to more traditional stats, Tua stands high above his competition. He’s first in the NFL in yards per attempt, first in average net yards per attempt, first in touchdown percentage, and first in QBR (purely a measurement of a quarterback’s play; Garoppolo ranks 23rd in that category by the way, just in case you weren’t convinced that McDaniel was covering Tua’s flaws). Those are numbers you can’t ignore, and if Tua hadn’t missed time with a concussion, he’d undoubtedly be the MVP frontrunner in my eyes.
Courtesy and posted By Cooch.
Yeah that DVOA/DYAR stuff by Football Outsiders is like ESPN's QBR (which you reference in the 2nd to last paragraph) in that their goal is to isolate the contribution of individual players (note the reference in the parenthesis about ESPN's QBR being "purely" a measurement of a QB's play). Well.. these methods are all black box. QBR has like 10,000 lines of code 99% of which no one outside of the few who created it know what it's doing (they include stuff like "clutch" performance etc.) while Football Outsiders has what they call "success points" which they assign based on subjective criteria but pass off as objective (i.e., they use subjectively determined parameters to estimate numbers they pass off as objective measures).
It's theoretically possible to estimate the contribution of a single individual in a team sport, but only if you have random (or near random) combinations of players each game with massive sample size (probably more than the entire history of NFL if you wanted to do it right). In practice we can't do this for the NFL, and especially not for QBs since they tend to play for only one or a small number of teams. The reason these methods are black box is because they know they'll be criticized for inserting all kinds of subjective assumptions they don't want people to know about. So yes I'm familiar with them. I don't respect them though.
Better to either go with simple passing efficiency stats like passer rating or ANYA — none of which are "purely" a measurement of QB play obviously (no need to act like it like ESPN does) — or go with EPA per play. EPA per play is fairly close to ESPN's QBR if that helps, but at least it's transparent and based on sound statistical principles (historical probabilities of scoring points on the drive based on down, distance and game situation).
djphinfanSupporter"cbrad wrote:
Yeah that DVOA/DYAR stuff by Football Outsiders is like ESPN's QBR (which you reference in the 2nd to last paragraph) in that their goal is to isolate the contribution of individual players (note the reference in the parenthesis about ESPN's QBR being "purely" a measurement of a QB's play). Well.. these methods are all black box. QBR has like 10,000 lines of code 99% of which no one outside of the few who created it know what it's doing (they include stuff like "clutch" performance etc.) while Football Outsiders has what they call "success points" which they assign based on subjective criteria but pass off as objective (i.e., they use subjectively determined parameters to estimate numbers they pass off as objective measures).
It's theoretically possible to estimate the contribution of a single individual in a team sport, but only if you have random (or near random) combinations of players each game with massive sample size (probably more than the entire history of NFL if you wanted to do it right). In practice we can't do this for the NFL, and especially not for QBs since they tend to play for only one or a small number of teams. The reason these methods are black box is because they know they'll be criticized for inserting all kinds of subjective assumptions they don't want people to know about. So yes I'm familiar with them. I don't respect them though.
Better to either go with simple passing efficiency stats like passer rating or ANYA — none of which are "purely" a measurement of QB play obviously (no need to act like it like ESPN does) — or go with EPA per play. EPA per play is fairly close to ESPN's QBR if that helps, but at least it's transparent and based on sound statistical principles (historical probabilities of scoring points on the drive based on down, distance and game situation).
Yup whatever you just said :)
TheHighExhaultedForum VeteranAccording to FanDuel, Tua has the 4th best odds to win MVP behind Mahomes, Hurts and Allen.
The_Dark_KnightForum Veteran"djphinfan wrote:
c-brad this is for you..
https://deadspin.com/tua-tagovailoa-is-the-real-deal-1849766672/amp
One good season does not guarantee future NFL success.
A much better determinator would be his analytics, and by golly, Tua’s advanced stats don’t just jump off the page, they grab you by the ears and scream profanities at you until you can’t deny Tua’s greatness anymore.
Let’s start with Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a percentage measurement of a quarterback’s efficiency over an average quarterback. Tua’s is insane. He leads the league in that category. The second-highest mark belongs to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. His DVOA checks in at 25.2 percent. Third, is San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo — probably didn’t expect him; I’ll touch more on his presence here in a moment — with 25.1 percent. Fourth is Philly’s Jalen Hurts at 19.9 percent. With those figures in mind, what could you possibly assume Tagovailoa’s figure is, hmm? Maybe high-20s, low-30s perhaps? Maybe he blows everyone out of the water and hits us with a 40 percent DVOA. That would be something, right? Well, Tua’s DVOA currently sits at 51 percent, more than double Mahomes’ figure.
...
let’s move to Yards Above Replacement (YAR). Think of this statistic like WAR in baseball, a cumulative figure that attempts to crunch a player’s value into a singular number, or in this case, yardage total. It’s a cumulative stat meaning that the more pass attempts a player has, the more likely they are to have a higher figure. Tua is second in the NFL with 888 YAR, four fewer than the league leader Mahomes (892). Tua has missed 2.5 games.
...
when we look at Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), which takes into account the quality of defense that each quarterback has played against. In that statistic, which is also cumulative, Tagovailoa leads the NFL, and it’s not all that close. His DYAR figure (909) is 48 points higher than Mahomes’ (861). The only quarterbacks to have a higher DYAR through nine games than Tua this year are 2004 Peyton Manning (MVP), 2006 Peyton Manning (third in MVP voting), and 2007 Tom Brady (MVP). That’s elite company, and once again, Tua has missed 2.5 games. I just want to reiterate that.
Even in regard to more traditional stats, Tua stands high above his competition. He’s first in the NFL in yards per attempt, first in average net yards per attempt, first in touchdown percentage, and first in QBR (purely a measurement of a quarterback’s play; Garoppolo ranks 23rd in that category by the way, just in case you weren’t convinced that McDaniel was covering Tua’s flaws). Those are numbers you can’t ignore, and if Tua hadn’t missed time with a concussion, he’d undoubtedly be the MVP frontrunner in my eyes.
Courtesy and posted By Cooch.
Not intending to belittle your post…I’ve been a Tua supporter since he got the nid last season and saw the potential, but this DVOA? I swear, it seems like every time you turn around, there’s a new type of stat.
Kinda reminds me of Tom Selleck in “Mr Baseball”…
“I led this team in 9th inning doubles during the month of August”
That’s a funny line because of what people do keep track of in sports stats. I don’t follow stats like Brad does but I’ve never heard of this stat and to me it just seems like yet another figure for bean counters to track for justification.
“The person you will spend the most time with in your life is yourself, so you better make sure you’re someone interesting”
"The_Dark_Knight wrote:
I don’t follow stats like Brad does but I’ve never heard of this stat and to me it just seems like yet another figure for bean counters to track for justification.
Their motivation is money nothing else. Stuff like DVOA doesn't get published in respected scientific journals because it would never pass peer review. However, Football Outsiders (who created DVOA) has a nice subscription service for "stats" that supposedly tell you far more than we're capable of inferring at the moment from the data. ESPN's QBR is also for marketing — we (ESPN) have developed this great tool that can isolate QB ability and everyone else should pay attention to our proprietary algorithm blah blah blah.
Money dude.. it's money. It's not about bean counting per se. And each time people quote these "stats" they're just playing into the hands of those who make money from them.
resnorForum Veteran"The_Dark_Knight wrote:
Not intending to belittle your post…I’ve been a Tua supporter since he got the nid last season and saw the potential, but this DVOA? I swear, it seems like every time you turn around, there’s a new type of stat.
Kinda reminds me of Tom Selleck in “Mr Baseball”…
“I led this team in 9th inning doubles during the month of August”
That’s a funny line because of what people do keep track of in sports stats. I don’t follow stats like Brad does but I’ve never heard of this stat and to me it just seems like yet another figure for bean counters to track for justification.
I mean, DVOA has been around for quite awhile
Lol
"cbrad wrote:
Their motivation is money nothing else. Stuff like DVOA doesn't get published in respected scientific journals because it would never pass peer review. However, Football Outsiders (who created DVOA) has a nice subscription service for "stats" that supposedly tell you far more than we're capable of inferring at the moment from the data. ESPN's QBR is also for marketing — we (ESPN) have developed this great tool that can isolate QB ability and everyone else should pay attention to our proprietary algorithm blah blah blah.
Money dude.. it's money. It's not about bean counting per se. And each time people quote these "stats" they're just playing into the hands of those who make money from them.
DVOA presents itself as being scientifically rigorous. As the oldest of the ‘alternative statistics’ site for football they’ve got credibility due to surviving a long time, even if that credibility isn’t properly earned.. It isn’t complete trash because their ratings generally align with conventional stats and they make a shed ton of content about why when DVOoA and real statistics diverge about why DVOA is superior. The thing is if stats like EPA, EPA/play, CPOE, win probability added and so on existed at the time their site was created no one would bother visiting them.
They’re building brand awareness and a facade of credibility. If they genuinely had built something superior to standard stats in terms of predictive power then either they”d publish it in a journal, or they’d keep quiet and skin Las Vegas alive.
"Pauly wrote:
The thing is if stats like EPA, EPA/play, CPOE, win probability added and so on existed at the time their site was created no one would bother visiting them.
That's not true. EPA was introduced in 1970, win probability in the early 1990's, and throughout the early 2000's I remember sites posting EPA and EPA/play. But then corporate got involved thinking analytics was potentially big business (I mean.. they're right). Football Outsiders partnered with a bunch of outlets early on and has been exclusively with ESPN since 2008. ESPN got into the game themselves in 2011 with their QBR. So EPA existed well before these corporate guys made things worse. It's marketing that led to this.
"cbrad wrote:
That's not true. EPA was introduced in 1970, win probability in the early 1990's, and throughout the early 2000's I remember sites posting EPA and EPA/play. But then corporate got involved thinking analytics was potentially big business (I mean.. they're right). Football Outsiders partnered with a bunch of outlets early on and has been exclusively with ESPN since 2008. ESPN got into the game themselves in 2011 with their QBR. So EPA existed well before these corporate guys made things worse. It's marketing that led to this.
I didn’t realise has EPA existed for so long. There is however a difference between ‘a thing exists’ and a ‘a thing exists in an accessible and useable form’. Using 1970s technology it would probably take until 6 months after the season had finished to calculate EPA/play. My recollection is that DVOA was established on the scene before EPA was widely available on the internet, however that may be just a case of me not seeing the EPA data.
I am sure that the crew who created DVOA knew about EPA, but chose not to use it because they couldn’t make proprietary content using public domain formulas.
The_Dark_KnightForum Veteran"resnor wrote:
I mean, DVOA has been around for quite awhile
Lol
May be but, I look at simple BASIC stats which tell ME more…and mostly all I need to assess a quarterback…
Attempts, completions, percentage completion, yards per completion, TDs and INTs. Those are pretty much all I look at and tell ME whether or not a quarterback is good and whether or not he’s being used TOO much.
Ya’ll know me…I like balance in my offense.
“The person you will spend the most time with in your life is yourself, so you better make sure you’re someone interesting”
resnorForum Veteran"The_Dark_Knight wrote:
May be but, I look at simple BASIC stats which tell ME more…and mostly all I need to assess a quarterback…
Attempts, completions, percentage completion, yards per completion, TDs and INTs. Those are pretty much all I look at and tell ME whether or not a quarterback is good and whether or not he’s being used TOO much.
Ya’ll know me…I like balance in my offense.
Oh yeah, we generally agree on how to judge a QB. You may put more weight on wins than I do, but no biggie.
I agree, all these advanced stats are great, but I think they're trying to use them to do things that stats can't do. Like trying to predict. Football isn't an equation. Haha
The_Dark_KnightForum Veteran"resnor wrote:
Oh yeah, we generally agree on how to judge a QB. You may put more weight on wins than I do, but no biggie.
I agree, all these advanced stats are great, but I think they're trying to use them to do things that stats can't do. Like trying to predict. Football isn't an equation. Haha
We’ll stats are a great tool but…it’s just a tool nonetheless.
Bottom line, the ultimate stat that only counts is wins and losses :wink2:
“The person you will spend the most time with in your life is yourself, so you better make sure you’re someone interesting”
resnorForum Veteran"The_Dark_Knight wrote:
We’ll stats are a great tool but…it’s just a tool nonetheless.
Bottom line, the ultimate stat that only counts is wins and losses :wink2:
I agree. I just don't attribute them always wholly to the QB. Lol
djphinfanSupporter"The_Dark_Knight wrote:
Not intending to belittle your post…I’ve been a Tua supporter since he got the nid last season and saw the potential, but this DVOA? I swear, it seems like every time you turn around, there’s a new type of stat.
Kinda reminds me of Tom Selleck in “Mr Baseball”…
“I led this team in 9th inning doubles during the month of August”
That’s a funny line because of what people do keep track of in sports stats. I don’t follow stats like Brad does but I’ve never heard of this stat and to me it just seems like yet another figure for bean counters to track for justification.
I dont know what that shit means either man, I just know that if your leading in statistics across a lot of platforms you must be doing something right
Any more excuses for Tua's good play? lol.. I hope Pauly can't continue that list of his.
Tua had his 3rd consecutive 130+ rating today and now has a league dominating 118.4 rating for the season. Unbelievable!
Close this thread and delete the evidence for everyones sake
ExplosionsInDaSkyForum VeteranTua playing well AGAIN!
This thread is locked.