Tua is not the Problem

"Two Tacos wrote:

But Herbert is better! Checkmate Tuastanian! You should go live with him and raise his babies! These Tua guys are so in love with him. They clearly just want him to be their big spoon. He cannot even throw as hard as Herbert does! Haha! Another great point!

So people that believe he was a bad pick shouldn't voice their opinion?

This site was founded because we wanted to have honest conversations about the team and players, without all the homerism.

How far this site has fallen.

"resnor wrote:

So people that believe he was a bad pick shouldn't voice their opinion?

This site was founded because we wanted to have honest conversations about the team and players, without all the homerism.

How far this site has fallen.

"I believe that Tua can be a good quarterback with the right type of talent around him."

"YOU'RE A BLIND HOMER!!!"

"canesz06 wrote:

there is no way they get a 1st for tua. The best they could hope for would be a 3rd

Sam Darnold did significantly less with the Jets and the moronic Jets managed to get 3 picks including a 2nd.

"resnor wrote:

Hebert had the 32nd ranked oline last year, and he looked WAY BETTER than Tua this year.

His line last year was still better than the Dolphins this year. He had a running game. Better recievers. But, he isn't Tua. There also isn't a physio-psychokinetic link between the two of them that only lets one perform well while draining the other. I understand that people are in their feelings about Herbert. I what if too sometimes.

Tua showed steady improvement across his game year 1 to year 2. Here's a fun stat (well, fun before cbrad does his era adjustment) Tua is currently 0.2 points behind Fitzpatrick for 3rd all time in Dolphin career QB rating. Meaning career QB rating as a QB throwing passes for the Dolphins. Pennington is first by a lot. This is apropos of little pertaining to this discussion.

The little is that he is on track to be the best QB drafted since Marino. He is better after year 2 than any QB drafted by Miami since 1983. He is already the best young QB acquired by any means for the Dolphins since 1983. He's the third best QB acquired by any means since Marino, and the two above him were Pennington and Fitzpatrick. Neither of which had much of a future. It should be noted that Tannehill turned his 87 career passer rating for Miami into a 102 career passer rating for Tennessee. He also had individual seasons that were better than Tua, but it took him 3 years to have one better than just Tuas rookie offering.

Point is, Tua is looking like the best QB acquired since Dan. He absolutely has to keep improving to be that guy. Anyone declaring him a bust at this point has lost their perspective. Or, is so butthurt over Herbert that they cannot see through the tears.

"Two Tacos wrote:

Position by position, who you taking on Miamis offense over the chargers? For me it's Gesicki and Hunt. Even Waddle gets beat out by Allen. Not that this matters. Tua is a Dolphin and Herbert is a Charger.

I would take Waddle over Allen at this point. Allen is older and his time is running out while Waddle has his whole career. Plus Waddle was arguably a better player this past year.

Regardless it’s less about revisionist history for me and more about how we correct a clear mistake. I don’t believe you can win a playoff game, much less a SB with Tua so how do you upgrade the position?

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

In your previous post you said they can trade him for a first round pick no problem. I don't get it. Does he stink or does he still have promise?

Neither. He’s an average QB. Someone may feel he’s worth the investment. If he came out this year he’s the first QB off the board by far. That doesn’t mean he’s a good QB; it means if you’re able to upgrade the position there will be a QB needy team desperate enough to give you a high pick because they’d rather spend it on Tua then on a project like Howell, Corral, Wills etc.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

LOL! Why do Herbert stans always have an excuse?

I’m not a Herbert stan. I just recognize facts. Fact is Tua is average while Herbert is out there setting records

"resnor wrote:

So people that believe he was a bad pick shouldn't voice their opinion?

This site was founded because we wanted to have honest conversations about the team and players, without all the homerism.

How far this site has fallen.

Wow, you people are emotional. Have you insulted people because of not loving Herbert or hating Tua enough? If you haven't, you weren't being parodied. Nice strawman. If I thought you shouldn't be posting I'd block you and move on. I wouldn't spend as much time replying to you as I did above.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

"I believe that Tua can be a good quarterback with the right type of talent around him."

"YOU'RE A BLIND HOMER!!!"

This argument is like the reverse of Tannehill. Tannehill AT LEAST possessed elite traits... Big, strong, cannon arm, durable. I supported Tannehill for those reasons. Tua doesn't possess those things.

Building a complete team will benefit ANY QB. Doesn't mean that the QB is going to be great. Building the team around Tua will definitely allow him to be more successful...but I want a QB that makes the offense better, not an offense that makes the QB better.

Do you understand the difference?

"resnor wrote:

This argument is like the reverse of Tannehill.

Ha! I've thought the same thing.

"Two Tacos wrote:

His line last year was still better than the Dolphins this year. He had a running game. Better recievers. But, he isn't Tua. There also isn't a physio-psychokinetic link between the two of them that only lets one perform well while draining the other. I understand that people are in their feelings about Herbert. I what if too sometimes.

Tua showed steady improvement across his game year 1 to year 2. Here's a fun stat (well, fun before cbrad does his era adjustment) Tua is currently 0.2 points behind Fitzpatrick for 3rd all time in Dolphin career QB rating. Meaning career QB rating as a QB throwing passes for the Dolphins. Pennington is first by a lot. This is apropos of little pertaining to this discussion.

The little is that he is on track to be the best QB drafted since Marino. He is better after year 2 than any QB drafted by Miami since 1983. He is already the best young QB acquired by any means for the Dolphins since 1983. He's the third best QB acquired by any means since Marino, and the two above him were Pennington and Fitzpatrick. Neither of which had much of a future. It should be noted that Tannehill turned his 87 career passer rating for Miami into a 102 career passer rating for Tennessee. He also had individual seasons that were better than Tua, but it took him 3 years to have one better than just Tuas rookie offering.

Point is, Tua is looking like the best QB acquired since Dan. He absolutely has to keep improving to be that guy. Anyone declaring him a bust at this point has lost their perspective. Or, is so butthurt over Herbert that they cannot see through the tears.

WHO CARES what his rating is? Ratings don't win games. Points win games. Tua is WAY BEHIND Hebert in terms of points scored. I don't talk about Hebert in an effort to denigrate Tua. It's simply a comparison to a QB who we absolutely could have picked and didn't.

I COMPLETELY understand rooting for the Dolphins, and Tua, to be successful. That is a far cry from believing that Tua is the answer at QB in Miami.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

"I believe that Tua can be a good quarterback with the right type of talent around him."

"YOU'RE A BLIND HOMER!!!"

The question isn't whether Tua can be a workable QB with the right talent around him, the question is whether we should keep trying to get a franchise QB to replace him.

"resnor wrote:

WHO CARES what his rating is?

The ratings argument is actually the best argument that Herbert > Tua so far because the difference is now statistically significant.

Until the last 2 games of this season there was clearly a difference in career ratings between Herbert and Tua but it wasn't statistically significant (the difference could be explained by random variation alone). Then after that 2nd to last game against Tennessee it finally became statistically significant and remained that way after the last game. So right now, with admittedly very small sample size so this will fluctuate quite a bit before stabilizing, the difference between Herbert and Tua cannot be explained by random variation alone.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

The question isn't whether Tua can be a workable QB with the right talent around him, the question is whether we should keep trying to get a franchise QB to replace him.

Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees. Forget Watson it's not happening.

Their next chance for that would be 2023 when they have two first round picks. So, the actual question for the time being is whether Tua can be the guy with the right team built around him.

Something that can help compare some relevant QBs:

[ATTACH:4864]

EPA = nflfastR expected points added per play (efficiency)
CPOE = nflfastR completion % over expected (accuracy)
DVOA = F.O. defense-adjusted value over average (efficiency)
DYAR = F.O. defense-adjusted yards above replacement (gross production)
PFF = individual PFF offense grade
QBR = ESPN total QBR; measure of win probability added per play
Sack% = sack rate (sacks/total dropbacks)
AirYds = Air yards per attempt
CP = nflfastR completion probability based on situation & air yards
PFF Recv = team PFF receiving grade
PFF Pblk = team PFF pass block grade
PA/G = team points allowed per game

"cbrad wrote:

The ratings argument is actually the best argument that Herbert > Tua so far because the difference is now statistically significant.

Until the last 2 games of this season there was clearly a difference in career ratings between Herbert and Tua but it wasn't statistically significant (the difference could be explained by random variation alone). Then after that 2nd to last game against Tennessee it finally became statistically significant and remained that way after the last game. So right now, with admittedly very small sample size so this will fluctuate quite a bit before stabilizing, the difference between Herbert and Tua cannot be explained by random variation alone.

I'm just saying, the job of the QB is to lead the team to points. Tua is way behind Hebert in that respect, regardless of rating.

Again, though, rating is a result, not an action. It's useful in comparing, and useful in making predictions, but in and of itself, it's not the be-all-end-all for me.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees. Forget Watson it's not happening.

Their next chance for that would be 2023 when they have two first round picks. So, the actual question for the time being is whether Tua can be the guy with the right team built around him.

I don't disagree with this.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

The question isn't whether Tua can be a workable QB with the right talent around him, the question is whether we should keep trying to get a franchise QB to replace him.

Exactly. That's my concern...tua is just good enough where they win enough to not have to draft picks, and we never get an actual franchise QB.

Just think, if we would have drafted Herbert, we'd have 3 first round picks in the next two years. Instead, we may have to trade those picks to move up in the draft or to trade for or a veteran.

"resnor wrote:

I'm just saying, the job of the QB is to lead the team to points. Tua is way behind Hebert in that respect, regardless of rating.

Again, though, rating is a result, not an action. It's useful in comparing, and useful in making predictions, but in and of itself, it's not the be-all-end-all for me.

Both points and rating are a result, not an action per se. Points is more affected by surroundings than passer rating (e.g., passer rating doesn't directly include yards or TDs by running backs, etc.). So rating is closer to looking at the QB in isolation, even though it's still clearly far away from being a true individual player stat. Still.. for comparing QBs you're better off looking at ratings than points scored.

Those two stats are highly coupled though: correlation across NFL history is 0.78 so about 60% of the variation in points scored can be explained by passer rating.

"resnor wrote:

I'm just saying, the job of the QB is to lead the team to points. Tua is way behind Hebert in that respect, regardless of rating.

Again, though, rating is a result, not an action. It's useful in comparing, and useful in making predictions, but in and of itself, it's not the be-all-end-all for me.

EPA (expected points added) per play. The last 5 league MVPs have either led the league or been an extremely close second in the league in EPA per play. The thumbnail image I included in my post above includes EPA per play as one of the bases of comparison among Tua and the other QBs listed. Aaron Rodgers leads the league this year by a good margin and will in all likelihood win the league MVP again.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees. Forget Watson it's not happening.

Their next chance for that would be 2023 when they have two first round picks. So, the actual question for the time being is whether Tua can be the guy with the right team built around him.

If their intent is to draft a new QB in 2023, they might decide to trade whatever they can for picks, just like in 2019.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

If their intent is to draft a new QB in 2023, they might decide to trade whatever they can for picks, just like in 2019.

That's a decision that should be made after 2022, not now. There's no question there's value in fixing OL, RB and getting another good WR this year regardless of QB, so I'd do that in this draft. Then if Tua doesn't pan out in 2022 you trade Tua and possibly a bit more to get more picks. Even if Tua is not the answer it's still likely based on prior improvement and additional pieces he can be a mid-90's rating QB, so slightly above average, but not good enough if you want to seriously improve your chances at winning a SB. Trade value for that is minimum a 2nd and possibly a 1st given how many teams would be happy with a mid-90's rating QB.

2023 is the right year to make that move, not this offseason.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

If their intent is to draft a new QB in 2023, they might decide to trade whatever they can for picks, just like in 2019.

They still have to see if Tua is the guy. I expect them to spend big in free agency and get him some complimentary pieces. If they do that, and next season he doesn't take the big jump then 2023 they can part ways and draft a quarterback.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

If their intent is to draft a new QB in 2023, they might decide to trade whatever they can for picks, just like in 2019.

The chances of 2019 happening is slim to none.

First off, a player like Minkah Fitzpatrick being available is almost unheard of. Second of all, Texans aren't as easy to fleece as they were before.

The smartest thing to do is invest in the areas of weakness via free agency and the draft and actually put a good offensive line in front of Tua and whoever will be the running back(s) on the roster.