Tua is not the Problem

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

Not disputing your post, but that doesn't account for the fact that the five QBs ahead of him are top-10 signal callers. Suggesting that his presence among them is because of the nature of his passes doesn't account for their presence above him. And we have many here who believe that THE actual important stat - winning games - is less important because of who won when Tua is the QB. As I said before, every stat can be viewed through a prism of being cherry picked if taken out of context. And for sakes of arguments, most of them are. It's all just offseason fun and games.

I wasn't trying to say it was a bad list to be on at all- I was just speaking to the context of how "successful plays" don't equal winning or even scoring. The way the stat is presented, a 50 yard pass that's caught is a successful play. So is a caught 4 yard pass...or a 1-yard pass with three yards after the catch. If we're comparing success/failure just on that metric, the short passes/runs come out on top because they get more volume per drive. For example, Mahommes threw more short passes than anyone last year and he's #1 on this list. That's definitely not a knock on him or anyone else, it just means he's efficient with them and it keeps the offense moving.

I agree with your other point as well- this is something to talk about when there's nothing else to talk about.

Trigger warning (it's just his opinion):

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

Is this cherry picking? Prolly.

A "successful play" is defined as a play that gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% of yards-to-go on 3rd or 4th down.

Here are the top 6 from 2021:

1. Mahomes
2. Stafford
3. Prescott
4. Brady
5. Herbert
6. Tagovailoa

Have a good night.

— Matt Infante (@MattInfante) June 13, 2022

Maybe Tyreek had a point 😅🐬 pic.twitter.com/jxpY7Tuxd2

— Dolphin Nation (@Dolphin_Nation) June 13, 2022

I'm thinking about the first tweet.

The second is absolutely cherry picked. The fewer deep attempts you throw, the easier it is to have a high completion%. It's like shooting free throws. Hitting one is easy. Getting 4-5 is pretty easy. But hit 10 in a row. Now 20 in a row. Now go for 40 in a row.

"resnor wrote:

I'm thinking about the first tweet.

The second is absolutely cherry picked. The fewer deep attempts you throw, the easier it is to have a high completion%. It's like shooting free throws. Hitting one is easy. Getting 4-5 is pretty easy. But hit 10 in a row. Now 20 in a row. Now go for 40 in a row.

By that reasoning, shouldn't the list consist of the six QBs with the fewest attempts?

Tua Tagovailoa more accurate than Patrick Mahomes? Tyreek Hill says one thing, numbers might say another
9:15 PM ET

Marcel Louis-JacquesESPN

Tyreek Hill is many things -- arguably the fastest player in the NFL, an All-Pro wide receiver and the highest-paid receiver in NFL history. He might also be quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's most vocal supporter.

Hill compared the Miami Dolphins quarterback to his former teammate in Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes, during an episode of his podcast "It Needed to Be Said."

"Obviously, like I'm gonna go with 15 as the strongest arm but as far as accuracy-wise, I'm going with Tua all day," Hill said.

How much of that is rooted in truth, versus Hill simply supporting his new teammate?

For starters, Mahomes owned the league's fifth-best QBR last season at 62.2 while Tagovailoa finished with a 49.7 -- 18th-best in the NFL. Their completion percentages were comparable, with Tagovailoa's 67.8% besting Mahomes' 66.3%.

Tagovailoa did own a completion percentage over expectation of +0.9%, compared to Mahomes' -2.1%, which lends credence to Hill's statement that the Dolphins' quarterback is the more accurate passer.

The third-year quarterback has weathered criticism during his first two professional seasons, mainly surrounding his ability to push the ball downfield. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Tagovailoa was actually the most accurate passer in the NFL last season on attempts of at least 25 air yards, connecting on 50% of his attempts.

At the same time, he attempted the second-fewest of such passes -- which he attributed to playcalling, rather than his own capability.

"I have seen some improvements on being able to push the ball down the field once again," he told Muscle and Fitness magazine. "I honestly think it's just practice. I wasn't really able to push the ball down the field last year because we didn't have plays specifically to push the ball down the field. A lot of plays that were called last year were meant for one person. Either this person is open or the play might be dead.

"It's a little different now. My second year was different than my rookie year and this year will be different than last year with how we go about doing things. I definitely feel a lot more confident being able to push the ball down the field. It's going to be exciting."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34086983/tua-tagovailoa-more-accurate-patrick-mahomes-tyreek-hill-says-one-thing-numbers-say-another

That's about useless. Tyreek was talking about HIS experience with Tua, not some statistical data based on his whole career.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

That's about useless. Tyreek was talking about HIS experience with Tua, not some statistical data based on his whole career.

Much ado about nothing. I honestly don't know how the kid became a national obsession/punching bag. I dig Dolphins fans' divided opinion on him; it's what we do. But you and I both know that 95% of the talking heads with an opinion about Tua don't watch Dolphins games. Nobody watches 10+ games on Sunday and shows up on Monday morning with a first-hand account of how well the QBs have done. Skip, Shannon, Stephen A., Florio, Chris Simms, and the rest of them get their narratives from other reporters and roll with it.

They know that we have passionate fans and if you're going to say anything about us/our players, go low enough because that's where the clicks and comments come from. Consider: We've had half a week of commentary - some of it vehement - about how Tyreke Hill had the audacity to suggest that Tua is better than Mahomes. The fact that it's become such a joke in spite of the fact that he never said that is indicative of the fact that (a) it's a long offseason, and (b) these cats aren't even paying attention. It's just like the chatter behind the flutter ball tweet: They see what they want to see and until Tua shows them something to shut them up, they're going to do what they always have done.

My point in posting those last two Tweets was, as I stated, not to prove that Tua is the best QB since Dan Marino, but to point out the fallacy in the opposite position. Even if the stats don't show everything that some might claim they show, what they DO show is that Tua is a talented QB who has real potential and is FAR from being the low-end QB that many make him out to be.

That's it. That was my point. There's good stuff in Tua's game, there's reason for hope this next season.

"Galant wrote:

That's it. That was my point. There's good stuff in Tua's game, there's reason for hope this next season.

I agree, and I think that's what Tyreek meant by his statement as well. He wasn't talking accuracy as in career catches, he was referring to precise ball placement in time to make something happen. For example, there was a video recently showing all of the picks Mahommes had from tipped balls to Tyreek. Several of them were intermediate passes thrown hard that hit Tyreek around the face or above his head, they were absolutely catchable balls but he couldn't haul them in. Tua doesn't throw with a cannon and generally hits receivers in their hands in stride...that's what the Cheetah was referring to in accuracy. It's easier to catch Tua's passes and sets people up for YAC.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

By that reasoning, shouldn't the list consist of the six QBs with the fewest attempts?

Not necessarily. If you play on a good team with good receivers, that makes a difference too. Yet Tua is on there, and he threw amongst the lowest. So regardless of anything else, Tua's comp% on deep balls isn't really impressive to me, because I watched him, and I wasn't seeing him throw deep. I know there were many reasons for that, but still, deep balls weren't really common in our offense.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

This continuous back and forth on Tua and downfield throws is truly getting tiring. It’s nonsensical!

Did Tagovailoa throw down field a lot? No
Did Tua have a solid offensive line? No
Was Tagovailoa under duress more than any other quarterback in the league? Yes
Did the Dolphins have a competent offensive coaching staff developing an offense to Tua’s skills set? No

Enough already. What’s done is done. The team has invested heavily in the offense, revamping the line, bringing in solid running backs to upgrading the receiving corps. Personnel wise, the TEAM is set. Whether or not McDaniel is the right coach and his play calling is competent remains to be seen however, the McDaniel is up for the task, and Tagovailoa falters, then we’ll be drafting a new QB next season but until then…

ENOUGH already

Was he really under duress more the Burrows?

"Galant wrote:

My point in posting those last two Tweets was, as I stated, not to prove that Tua is the best QB since Dan Marino, but to point out the fallacy in the opposite position. Even if the stats don't show everything that some might claim they show, what they DO show is that Tua is a talented QB who has real potential and is FAR from being the low-end QB that many make him out to be.

That's it. That was my point. There's good stuff in Tua's game, there's reason for hope this next season.

I haven't seen anybody on here say Tua is complete trash. The complaint is he is not elite, does not have a very strong arm, does not have a very high football IQ, and is injury prone.

Aside from that, he has a quick release, with good accuracy when throwing on schedule and good pocket presence. I believe he can be a decent to above average starting QB in the NFL. I just don't think he has what it takes to be a truly elite QB, which is what we drafted him top 5 for.

"dolphin25 wrote:

Was he really under duress more the Burrows?

Short answer? Yes

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Short answer? Yes

That's a tough one. Tua was pressured more, Burrow was leveled more. Tua has better footwork and accuracy, Burrow has better everything else.

You know, it sort of amazes me that we're even having this conversation. A #1 pick and a #5 pick, both to lead their organizations, and we're talking about which one has the lousiest situations when trying to pass the ball. This just shouldn't be a topic because organizations should never let it happen to begin with...protect your darn quarterbacks!

"KeyFin wrote:

That's a tough one. Tua was pressured more, Burrow was leveled more. Tua has better footwork and accuracy, Burrow has better everything else.

You know, it sort of amazes me that we're even having this conversation. A #1 pick and a #5 pick, both to lead their organizations, and we're talking about which one has the lousiest situations when trying to pass the ball. This just shouldn't be a topic because organizations should never let it happen to begin with...protect your darn quarterbacks!

Burrows missed several as well. I watched most of their games. He got clobbered a lot.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Short answer? Yes

Long answer? Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssssssss

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

Trigger warning (it's just his opinion):

Tua is a top 5 NFL QB when it comes to accuracy, and pocket presence.

Everyone overlooks his strengths highlighting his weaknesses. https://t.co/6dfDqSutTd

— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) June 14, 2022

What an absolutely stupid thing to say. I usually like Omar but he’s off his rocker on this one.

"Serpico Jones wrote:

What an absolutely stupid thing to say. I usually like Omar but he’s off his rocker on this one.

You usually like Omar??! I didn’t think anyone liked Omar, I’m not sure Omar’s mom likes Omar…

"plc001 wrote:

You usually like Omar??! I didn’t think anyone liked Omar, I’m not sure Omar’s mom likes Omar…

I like Omar.

There were only 10 footballs that traveled 55 yards in the air in the NFL last year.

Tua had one of them

Whether or not what Hill is saying is true or not, I like that we've got a player with a chip in his shoulder, willing to chirp away.

Man, I miss the 90s. I miss the things players in those days would say and do. They've sanitized the game. Kinda taken some of the fun out of it.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

Again, my issue with that is that they don't give you the number of attempts.

You would agree that's important, right?

I know you probably think I'm anti-Tua, but I'm not. I just am not sold on him, and I want him to prove he's the man, and I find stats liked this to simply be disingenuous. They're manufactured to try to prove a narrative.

Hopefully these stats are signs that this season, with his improved health and conditioning, and improved weapons, that he'll actually be throwing deep this season.