Tua or or wait for Lawrence?

"cbrad wrote:

Yeah I'm not locked in on Tua. I'm locked in on taking a QB with the #1 pick in 2020 whoever seems to be the best prospect at that time. It's just that right now that looks like Tua. The important thing is to end this search for a franchise QB that we've had since Marino.

Yeah, I more or less agree. One year of tanking ought to suffice, haha.

I suppose hypothetically if Tua really looked bad this year or had some devastating injury or something to that effect and as a result he dropped way down you might do what the Browns did. Remember that despite having the #2 and #1 pick they passed on Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes in the couple years before they finally pulled the trigger on Baker Mayfield. It's ridiculous to think Miami would be that bad for that long, but still...it's been done.

I could fathom Miami doing something like that if they had a "decent" season this year with 5-6 wins and couldn't trade up to get the guy they really wanted.

I think the worse they do, the more the pressure will be applied and of course, the better chance they'll have at getting who they want, too.

Still, passing on a QB in 2019 when you have so many legit options (Tua, Herbert, Love, etc.) may prove a dangerous thing. You're not guaranteed to have good options every year. In fact, it's more like 1 in every 3 years. I remember looking at the past 15 years or so and seeing quite a few years in there wherein the best options amongst the consensus "elites" were not good players. Heck, in 2013 EJ Manuel was the only QB taken highly and even that pick was a mistake, LOL.

So if you pass on QB in 2020 and then Lawrence doesn't declare or you're just not a horrible team, man, you're screwing yourself.

So I agree, if Miami ends up amongst the top-5 this year they've pretty much gotta take someone I would think.

Toughest scenario is if Tua doesn't declare this year and defers to 2021. If Tua/Lawrence stand out again this year admin no one else comes close you've got to wait, right? I mean unless you're convinced a third guy is legit. But you DO NOT just take a guy in 2020 just because you have to. This has been too much of a purge to walk away without THE guy.

"Galant wrote:

Toughest scenario is if Tua doesn't declare this year and defers to 2021. If Tua/Lawrence stand out again this year admin no one else comes close you've got to wait, right? I mean unless you're convinced a third guy is legit. But you DO NOT just take a guy in 2020 just because you have to. This has been too much of a purge to walk away without THE guy.

You absolutely take the best QB in 2020 whoever that is, even if Tua doesn't declare. There simply is no guarantee you could ever trade for that #1 pick in 2021. And there is no such thing as "THE guy". Too many "can't miss" prospects have turned into busts.

"cbrad wrote:

You absolutely take the best QB in 2020 whoever that is, even if Tua doesn't declare. There simply is no guarantee you could ever trade for that #1 pick in 2021. And there is no such thing as "THE guy". Too many "can't miss" prospects have turned into busts.

I understand your reasoning but I have a fundamental problem with someone making what they feel is a sub-standard choice just because they 'have to'. If you've made massive moves like this primarily to get your preferred QB, and you know who that is, you go get him. There are no guarantees of anything except that making a choice you don't want to make and locking yourself in to it is never a good idea.

"Galant wrote:

I understand your reasoning but I have a fundamental problem with someone making what they feel is a sub-standard choice just because they 'have to'. If you've made massive moves like this primarily to get your preferred QB, and you know who that is, you go get him. There are no guarantees of anything except that making a choice you don't want to make and locking yourself in to it is never a good idea.

So what are you going to do, tank even more next year?

If Tua and Lawrence are the guys you think they are it's a safe bet that they're going #1 and #2 overall and that the teams who are there aren't going to pass on them.

I don't see a scenario where Miami can pass on a QB in 2020 and still be there to take one in 2021 unless they straight up tank even more next year.

How would you even do that? How could you legitimately improve the roster this next off-season and yet still lose almost all your games in 2020, LOL!?

Seems a lot more possible that you just take Fromm, Herbert or Love...all of whom will be elite prospects at the top of this upcoming draft.

I mean, Tua isn't the only guy who can play. Look at the guys who've come out recently. Would you be dissatisfied if Miami had ended up with Wentz? Or Watson? Or Mahomes? Or Mayfield?

Nah bro, they all would've worked.

Anyhow, it's all moot. Tua is coming out this year. It's like 99.9% certain. You're just freaking yourself out suggesting otherwise. And don't get all consumed with Tua. He's not going to be the only guy who's under consideration at year's end.

"Fromm, Herbert or Love...all of whom will be elite prospects at the top of this upcoming draft"

That's quite the statement. One - you don't know that. Two - the odds are dead set against 3 elite QB prospects showing up in one draft.

"Tua is coming out this year. It's like 99.9% certain." I've no idea what the odds are on it, but apparently you've got the inside tip on this. I only know that Tua and his family have said, in interviews, that finishing his education is an important consideration, and his family's opinion, particularly his father's opinion is a massive influence on him. His Dad basically had the final say on what college he was going to.
I would imagine it's hard to avoid the pull of the NFL, the money to be made and the risk of injury in college, but if there's one family that looks like it will be guided by their own principles and not the money, it's that one. Regardless, we're talking possibilities here, so just looking at all possible outcomes.

As for tanking into 2021, I'm not sure what the solution is, but I one possibility is that they acquire some pieces in 2020 but essentially continue to trade to acquire more picks in 2021 and further build up their ammo. So yes, they could continue the tank another year if that's what they wanted to do.

Tua, Fromm, Herbert and Love are all being graded now and are in the running to be "elite" 1st round QBs next year. You can't hold Tua up without doing the same for those others as well.

And Tua will be done with his education early AFAIK.

If Tua isn’t available, I’d be fine with taking the best pass rusher or trading back for some more picks.

I am skeptical of Tua at this point but I will try to watch as much as I can stand this year to get a better idea of who he is.
This team will have the worst record in football at the end of the year. If Tua is there we will take him.

For better or worse.

IMO this will be a good QB class. I have two QBs at this point whom I believe will end up being worth the first overall pick (Tua and Love). That's pretty rare for me. The last time I had two QB prospects in one draft I viewed as worthy of the #1 overall pick was 2004 (Eli Manning and Rivers). I understand the argument that it's currently Tua, then everybody else. And I see Tua as an excellent prospect, but I'm not sure that he will be the only excellent QB prospect by the time the draft rolls around. Obviously, my opinion could change as the season progresses, but that's where I'm at right now. I have also heard last year that the team really liked Herbert and obviously there are others who could rise. The point is that I this should be a strong QB class, the kind where you have more than just one QB worthy of building around. Sometimes you need to have good timing and having a high pick in a potentially historically strong QB class would be good timing. That's why I would not be in favor of passing on QB in 2020.

"cbrad wrote:

You absolutely take the best QB in 2020 whoever that is, even if Tua doesn't declare. There simply is no guarantee you could ever trade for that #1 pick in 2021. And there is no such thing as "THE guy". Too many "can't miss" prospects have turned into busts.

You only take him if you believe he will be successful though. Taking a QB just because hes there is how you get EJ Manual like someone said.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

You only take him if you believe he will be successful though. Taking a QB just because hes there is how you get EJ Manual like someone said.

Obviously.. but given the 2020 QB draft class there’s something wrong with this FO if they think the only successful QB will be Tua. So if we’re picking #1 in 2020 I think it’s too risky to do anything else than to pick a QB.

"mlb1399 wrote:

If Tua isn’t available, I’d be fine with taking the best pass rusher or trading back for some more picks.

Yeah, me too- I don't think you take a QB at 1 no matter what. Trade down to 3-5 overall and pick up an additional 1st from a bad team the following season (since they're picking 3rd, 4th or 5th). That way you're locked on Lawrence or Tua if they don't declare until 2021 and now you have 3 freaking 1st rounders.

"KeyFin wrote:

Yeah, me too- I don't think you take a QB at 1 no matter what. Trade down to 3-5 overall and pick up an additional 1st from a bad team the following season (since they're picking 3rd, 4th or 5th). That way you're locked on Lawrence or Tua if they don't declare until 2021 and now you have 3 freaking 1st rounders.

I don’t even think our organization could screw up 3 1st rounders lol

On a side note, I’m glad we didn’t trade for Antonio Brown. What a basket case. Hopefully we’ve learned our lesson on those type of players.

Lawrence is the next big thing, imo. He will be in that "top 5 NFL QB" talk each year. Tua will get a "yay" where Lawrence will get a "Hell yeah!" :up:

Clemson play T A&M tonight and Alabama are up against lowly NM State.

Both Tua and Lawrence are out their throwing dimes.

If this holds out the rest of the season you have to wonder if it matters much which one we get - as long as we get one...

Then again, the TL fan club has a strong following...

More in the 2019 College QB Thread - https://thephins.com/threads/2019-qbs-thread.94421/#post-3194648

Tua is not the answer. Bama has had a lot of good qbs that have won championships but none of them were NFL type qb's. Trevor Lawrence is the real deal. If we could get him, that would be the way to go

There's like zero chance of them being willing to do this two straight years, for a litany of reasons. It's bad for the bottom line, you're wasting players you've got, time, money, etc. Christian Wilkins might be 3/4ths of his way through his rookie deal before you're ready to start competing, etc. and so on.

It's go time next year, regardless.

"canesz06 wrote:

Tua is not the answer. Bama has had a lot of good qbs that have won championships but none of them were NFL type qb's. Trevor Lawrence is the real deal. If we could get him, that would be the way to go

Can you explain why Tua isn't legitimate?

"Surfs Up 99 wrote:

I am not going to count on getting Tua. We need to have a backup plan in case another team sucks more than we do. I haven't researched it heavily but I think Fromm could be a player.

Here’s the thing, imo let’s measure what we see from Rosen against the likes of Love, Fromm, and Herbert coming out.. if he’s ahead of those guys come after the season and we can’t get Tua then you ride with Rosen.

"Galant wrote:

Can you explain why Tua isn't legitimate?

it sounds to me like an illogical stance, which is, because past players haven’t made it, it automatically means a different human being will fail as well, why??? Because the past human beings failed so..that’s why

Who's the last Alabama Qb that was decent or ok in the NFL? How many years ago?

"jdallen1222 wrote:

Who's the last Alabama Qb that was decent or ok in the NFL? How many years ago?

Completely meaningless.

Just tossing my two-cents in the hat:

1. It's unfair to judge a player by the college they come from. Instead, judge a player by the totality of who they are. Their character, intangibles, work ethic, commitment, leadership, talent--these things are far more telling than some historical precedent set by previous failures of the same alma mater.

2. Tua checks a lot of boxes for a lot of people, particularly in the off-field and character columns. He's an ideal "face of the franchise" and may very well represent what Flores and Grier want in the Miami Dolphins moving forward.

3. If Tua continues to play like the No. 1 overall pick, he will almost certainly declare. Familial influences/educational beliefs aside, it is simply irrational to throw away first overall value to continue your education. From potential injuries to a decline in play, there are a wealth of reasons not to return to school in that situation. Tua isn't an idiot, and he knows as well as anyone that degrees can come later--first overall value may not come again.

4. It's unrealistic to tank for two-straight years, and according to Travis, that's not the plan internally. This is a 2-3 year rebuild, and 2019 is expected to be the worst of it. Miami is looking at 2020 as an opportunity to lay the foundation for the future through their numerous draft picks and $120+ million in cap space. They expect to compete in 2020 while hammering out minor/medium-sized issues, and then to use 2021 to round out the edges of the system and to propel themselves into relevency. They're doing this thing the right way, but the clock still ticks. They will find a QB to love in 2020, Tua or not. They have to, because they don't expect to have a shot at one in 2021.

5. Please, stop sleeping on Jake Eason.

"Galant wrote:

Can you explain why Tua isn't legitimate?

Just my opinion. I'm a huge college football fan and can usually tell when a guy is just a good college QB but not a going to be a good pro qb. Everyone of Bamas qb's for the past 20 years have been great college qb's and that's it. Sabans system makes his qb's look great. If we were to pick a QB next year, I'd want Justin Herbert from Oregon. If we wait till the following year, Trevor Lawrence without question