Winning record tied to a back with at least 280 carries.
Since Jimmie Johnson came on board a running back had 280 carries or more:
-1996 8-8 record K Jabbar 307 carries 3.6 ypa 1k yds
-1997-9-7 record K Jabbar 283 carries 3.2 ypa 800 yds
-1998-10-6 record K Jabbar 270 carries 3.6 960 yds
-2000 11-5 record, L Smith 313 carries 3.7 ypa 1,100 yds
-2001 10-6 record L Smith 309 carries 3.1 ypa 960 yds
-2002 9-7 record R Williams 383 carries 1,800 yds 4.8 ypc
-2003 10-6 record R Williams 392 carries 1,300 yds 3.5 ypa
Oddly enough that is the same general trend the Patriots followed, a running back with 280 or more carries, save for 2004, then they never handed the ball off to one back that often again.
Now to really complete this thought I'd have to go back through and correlate 280 carries or so to early season wins in the heat of September home games in miami, but my goodness this is only a general theory meant to show that maybe for the Dolphins, old man Shula had it right when he was pounding the rock in the pre Marino days.
Even Wanny was winning games using this formula.
Could be WannyBall was not as dumb as it looked.
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Puka-head likes this.
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Well, in 1996 to 1999 you had Dan Marino for most games, and even an old Marino scared teams way more than Henne does, you could not stack the line.
And say what you will about Jay Fiedler, the guy was a gamer and the team played hard for him, can we say the same about the team and Henne?
Sparano already said he likes the two-headed back approach
If you also look at say 2000 we had 1800 and change yards rushing, in our 1-15 year we had just short of 1600 yards rushing. Besides coaching, the glaring difference on offense was QB -
Difference between gross yardage and a feature back NJ1, my theory is all of the hand wringing over a Qb is misplaced, what is needed is a workhorse running back as every time the Dolphins have had one, we have a winning season, or at least a .500 season.
Odd thing about Fiedler, his best season as a dolphin Qb, 2001, he ran for an impressive 320 yds, a record by Phins Qb's and he was our second leading rusher and scored 4 TD's rushing his performance dived after that season however.
As for Marino in 1999, our record was better over the 4 yrs once he left as compared to when he was here the prior 4yrs and L Smith and R Williams had 300+ carries, his 4 ten win season in a row was matched, which is crazy to think about but we averaged 10 wins every yr until 2004, when Saban came in for the 2005 season the Stud Rb was gone and we have had our worst seasons afterwards.
2 winning yrs in 7 yrs since the whole "running back by cmte" stuff was implemented. -
This completely ignores the DRASTIC change in the NFL landscape since 2005. It's a passing league. It would be better to pay attention to the past few superbowl winners and how they got things done than to look at our "winning" records from over a decade ago.
miamiron likes this. -
That is the myth, let me point out that Ben R has never been to a SB without a single running back who had 300 or more carries.
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It may be a passing league now, but you can't ignore teams like the Steelers, Giants and Jets that have been highly successful following the model that Ireland and Sparano are TRYING to follow. If you have the stud QB, then you load up on offense and win by passing. If you don't have that QB, then you follow the defense/running attack + efficient passing model. Last year, we had only the defensive part of the equation. With Pouncey + D Thomas, we now have two parts of the equation. Based on the first part of last season, we could have the 3rd part, but based on 2nd half (and stuck with Henning last season) we did not. million dollar question: what will Daboll + Henne + better Oline/running game look like?
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Aaargh! Correlation does not equal causation!!!!! Padre, I expect more outta you!!! Teams that are winning games run the ball. From the Footballoutsiders:
"There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your running backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; it has to run successfully. In general, winning teams have a lot of carries because their running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not because they are running wild early in games.
A sister statement to "you have to establish the run" is "team X is 5-1 when running back John Doe runs for at least 100 yards." Unless John Doe is ripping off six-yard gains Chris Johnson-style, the team isn't winning because of his 100-yard games. He's putting up 100-yard games because his team is winning.
Link: http://footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basicsMrClean, texanphinatic, miamiron and 1 other person like this. -
Exactly, which makes the Draft Class make more sense, MP and DTrain are meant to straighten out the running game, Clay and Gates add options.
That also explains the change in the blocking scheme as Daboll did turn Peyton Hillis into a 1,200 yd back, but they kept his carries down to 270, history as a guide the Dolphins have a better, and certain, track record when 1 Running Back has 300 or more carries, as in 90% of the time we make the playoffs.
So why all of the static about the Qb? We need that 300 carry running back. -
FO offers GENERAL "rules" for the NFL, not specific ones for the Dolphins Franchise, in that way the evidence is crystal clear, 300 carries means at least a .500 season.
Hit Doug Farrar up on Twitter and watch him back pedal, the crazy thing is, even with Marino if the wins from the 3 yrs prior to a 300 carry back is compared to the 3 yrs after a 300 carry back was added, Marino was worth..1 additional win..1..in 3 yrs..
In fact, WannyBalls 5 yrs are not as good as Marino's golden era of 83-87, but they are not that far behind:
1987 8-7
1986 8-8
1985 12-4
1984 14-2
1983 12-4
WannyBall era
1999 9-7
2000 11-5
2001 11-5
2002 9-7
2003 10-6
This with Jay Fiedler at Qb, the 84 season was of course the best statistical yr a Qb has ever had, otherwise Marino throwing the ball all over the place was good for 1 more win a yr compared to WannyBall's mind numbing approach.
To take this up another notch, Williams and Lamar Smith were as important to the Dolphins Franchise as Dan Marino in terms of the effect on Wins and Losses, Wanny's 2 # 1 picks for RW was the equivalent of trading for a "franchise" Qb in terms of W's and L's. -
I agree that the Football Outsiders aren't perfect. They're not the Football Gospel. However, I agree with their basic premise that winning teams end up running the ball to salt away victories, therefore causing their RBs to have more carries and more rushing yards.
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Guest
Since 2005. Bettis and Parker combined for well over 300 carries and 1,800 yards. 2006, Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes combined for over 300 carries and 1,700 yards. 2007, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for over 300 carries and 1,800 yards. 2008, Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore combined for over 300 carries and over 1,300 yards. 2009, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush, and Pierre Thomas combined for over 300 carries and 1,800 yards. 2010, John Kuhn, Brandon Jackson, and James Starks combined for just over 300 carries and just over 1,000 yards. What is with people buying the "passing league" mantra spouted by ESPN when clearly this is a Balanced league? -
I reject the notion of "balance", in fact the worst seasons in Dolphins history have come without a quality Qb and a "balanced" approach to running the ball, since 2004 there have been 2 winning seasons and 5 losing ones with that approach, sort of the worst of both worlds, no running back to ride to wins, no Qb to pass for wins, I'd go so far as to say for the Dolphins Franchise a Feature Back is as important as a Franchise Qb in terms of wins and losses.
It is the Marino Effect that says "zomg, we need a franchise qb!!!"
Eh, not really statistical history shows a 300 carry running back, for the Dolphns, is similar to a franchise Qb in terms of W/L record. -
True, the Saints do exactly that, they also have "spent" more on running backs in terms of draft choices then any other team, save for the Panthers, since Sean P took over, and aside from 2010's horror show in Carolina they have both been winning teams even with spending 2 #1 picks on running backs.
Carolina:
2009 8-8
2008 12-4
2007 7-9
2006 8-8
Interesting that they have hovered right around .500 for most of that time with Jake Delhomme and M Moore at Qb.
As for FO's stats, tbh I'd have to go back and compare rushing attempts, at home, with say 90 degree heat, to see if there is a unique reason why a 300 carry running back appears in 90% of our winning seasons since JJ took over for Shula..and I am not being paid to do so..:lol: -
Only thing I'll add: a strong running game and defense dramatically increases your chances of making the playoffs, IMO. Padre's stats back that up. You need BOTH though. But, if you want to make it to the championship game, you need good QB play to get over that last hump. That's what has kept the JESTS out of the superbowl. Still, I'd take a couple of losses in AFC championship over what we've been wading through the past few seasons.
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Guest
You even misunderstood my post. Winning teams have balanced teams. They can pass, run, play defence, and special teams.padre31 likes this. -
I get what you are saying KM, for the purposes of my theory the notion of a running back by cmte must be rejected as the same history that shows a single back with 300 carries means a winning season also means a back by cmte approach has led to our worst seasons, it is the seemingly reasonable compromise that has led to our worst results over the past 7 yrs.
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I don't really understand your Panthers point. They went to one Superbowl in a year when Delhomme was amazing. The rest of the time they were a .500 team. I don't want to be a .500 team.
Our "home field advantage" was stolen by our idiot owner in an attempt to turn Joe Robbie Stadium into TMZ Stadium. -
Ah, that is where the real positive of the theory come into play:
Ben R, Rivers, Brees, Ryan, all had one thing in common as Rookie or young Qb's:
a single back who had 300 carries, they carried the offense whilst the youngsters learned how to play Qb in the NFL.
Sam Bradford's rookie season was seen as a success?
Steven Jackson had 330 carries. -
That the Panthers, who have spent 2 # 1 picks on running backs, were usually at least a competitive, around .500 team even with poor Qb play from 06-09, the notion that #1 picks should not be used on running backs is misplaced, which is why I posted that factoid,
As for home field, IDK, 4 pm starts are not THAT much cooler then 1 pm starts, now 2 yrs in a row the early September games being played at other times and places then at home in the heat, that is a mixed bag, in 09 we started 0-2 in 10 2-0. -
Our 1-15 year we rushed for over 1,500, but without a QB you don't win.MonstBlitz and GARDENHEAD like this.
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Guest
So you're not going to put that in the context of bad Defense and Special Teams? Cam Cameron could coach an offense, but that's it. At least try to use the whole picture when you frame bro. And that makes it seem as if you missed the last sentence of my post. -
Not so, the difference in the 3 yrs with Marino, from 96-99 and with Fiedler, is miniscule, in fact Fiedler had a better record from 99-03 then Marino had in 96-98, and much better record then Marino from 93-95.
Point being, a single back who rushes 300 or more times has led to W/L's more consistently then any other offensive factor, total rushing yardage for the team has meant -0- to our W/L's in fact a cmte approach has led to our worst seasons in franchise history whereas a single back with 300 carries has led to our best wins and loss record since Marino's 83-85 run.
Even with Jay Fiedler handing the rock off, 300 carries means winning season. -
Exactly.
Almost everyone likes to tout the NFL as a "passing" league, but that's not entirely correct. Over the last decade (I prefer to look at a larger sample size than just the last 2-3 seasons) the teams with a good to great defense and a good to great running game have been more successful. In fact, if you look at ALL Super Bowl winning teams you would find that all but 2 or 3 had very good to great defenses and very good to great running games. On the other hand, there have been many below average to average QB's who have won ( or participated in) Super Bowls.
So your saying we had a QB????
Yes, the team was bad, but your making my point, running for over 300 carries and 1500 yards does not make you a winner, a good team, coaching, QB, special teams and defense makes you a winner, miss one of these and you will not win.
We handed the ball off to Williams and Brown 359 times last year, they rushed for 1400 yards, did we win?
I do agree we should have ran the ball more at times, but without a competent QB, you don't win.
Can Henne be that? Yes, but the door is closing fast
SCall13, GARDENHEAD and MonstBlitz like this.
finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Anyone looking to give us more Wannyball should be dragged out into the street and shot, we suffered through the 'we don't need a Qb with talent to win, we can build a defense and run the ball' era, lets move on. Have we sunk so low that we are looking at 10 win seasons that go nowhere and salivating?
Uncle Rico likes this.
And one is missing my point, total rushing yardage is not the issue..at all, in 09 the team rushed for over 2000k yds, the point is when a Back has had 300 carries the Dolphins have had at least a .500 season as well as made the playoffs 90% of the time, when the cmte approach was taken, the Dolphns have had their worst seasons in franchise history.
Since Lil Nicky rode into town with that crap, we are something like 45-67, prior to it we were below .500 only 1 season, in each of those seasons, save for 99, we had 1 back with at least 280 carries, Qb irrelevant, we won football games..often.
Guess when our last two playoffs wins were.
You speak as if 1000, or 1300 yards is a lot for 2 or 3 backs to combine for. If anything your posts demonstrates what a plug and play position RB has become. If you have an effective passing game, all you need is a warm body at RB. I exaggerate of course, but you get the point.
This isn't about temporary trends or blips in passing production. It's about money. Your average fan wants passing and lots of it and big name QBs in the superbowl. That's why the league will continue to create and enforce rules that favor the passing game. If anyone doesn't believe it's a passing league, take a look at passing yards since 2005. Used to be 3000 yards was a great year. Now the benchmark is 4,000.
The cmte approach has not worked in Miami, 2 winning seasons in the last 7 with that approach, it is the reasonable compromise and must be rejected as the failure that it is.
Which would be valid if you completely ignore the yards that were obtained with their plug and play rb.
Like what rules?
And no QB, the last winning season we had Pennington.
Just handing the ball off to one back 300 times means nothing unless you have a QB that can keep the defense off the line of scrimmage, right now Henne has not shown he can do that.
And I like Henne
That's a fallacy. Our running game has not been effective because we have not had an effective passing game. It doesn't matter if you have 1 guy or 4 guys running the ball. If you can't move the ball through the air, they are still going to run straight into a brick wall. Predictable play calling has also crippled our running game.
Means a winning season at least in Miami, the Marino Era has skewed what works and what doesn't in Miami, do you think they were not putting 8 men in the box when RW was toting the ball 380 times with the great Jay Fiedler behind center?
No larger fan of Daniel Thomas then me.
The big one is enforcement of pass interference. It drastically changed after the 2005 playoffs when Polian cried about the Patriots. This is a known fact.
Newer rules in effect and under consideration include stricter rules about hitting the QB. Stricter enforcement regarding hits on QBs, and also the proposed rules being considered about defenseless receivers in the act of making a catch. All rules make the passing game easier, and make it much harder on defenses.
Nonsense, as I pointed out to NJ1, they were putting 8 men in the box when Ricky or Smith were getting the ball, yet they still managed to drive the offense, the idea that "zomg franchise Qb franchise Qb" is a media driven fallacy.
In Miami, a feature back, a 300 carry back, is how games are won, only since that has been abandoned for the fad of a rb by cmte have we had far less success.
Time to toss out that failed ideal.
As to the first one, nope, not at all, the early quoted FO shows there is no correlation between Defensive penalties and wins and losses, PI included, plays such as the one that kept the Jets alive in one game last season are incredibly rare.
As for hitting the Qb, remains to be seen, one cannot simultaenously argue that the rules favor the offense and then point to rules that have yet to be enforced as "proof" of anything, until it happens on the field, it has not happened.
finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Let me guess...before the current coaching staff and any player currently on our roster were here?
How many superbowls did we win with Ricky running the ball 300+ times?
So you're saying there is something unique about our team? We're somehow different to the point where we don't need the franchise QB other teams seem to need to win the superbowl? And all this because we had some "winning" seasons a decade ago? Ok.
I'm not talking about correlation to wins and losses on individual games. I'm talking about the impact the officiating of pass interference since 2005 has had on the league overall. Passing has become easier, especially for effective QBs. Do you think it's any small wonder most of Marino's records fell after 2005? If you're unwilling to acknowledge this, then you simply aren't paying attention to what is a known fact in the NFL.
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