as a thought exercise. it seems to me that there are limitations, physical limitations that will cap certain technologies. i am aware that years ago, some believed that man had discovered everything there is to know. Tech is surely advancing and things like computing power going exponential. we have the Hadron Collider and will surely surpass it in some way.
but not all of technology advances or improves our daily lives. for all the advancements of the past 60 years, we essentially drive the same cars, live in the same houses and live similar routines as we did then. all the peripheral stuff (smart phones, internet, my DVR :yes:) and creature comforts have greatly improved. but there has yet to be change in the fundamental ways we live our lives. Governments have remained the same for the most, save international trade agreements.
the question could be rephrased in a series of example questions: will ever see a flying car? travel long distances in space? see the human race inhabit another planet? treat every disease?
if yes, our everyday life would change
im wondering how such a leap that will occur
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Travel is very different in the last 60 years. When I was a child my dad have a very thick book that he kept in his car. This book contained maps of every street in the area that we lived in. When we went for a long trip to a place he didn't know, he would have to buy a map of the area when we got there. Now all that information is sent to my phone and I do not even have to know how to read a map to get where I want to go.
How we communicate and interact with people is freakishly different. 60 years ago, you didn't own a phone. It was the company's phone, and you rented it. It was on a cord, so you had an area to where you could talk on the phone. Now you can call anyone from anywhere. When I was a child when I called someone and they didn't pick up, it meant they were not home. In fact meeting people somewhere used to be a mission impossible type scenario where all the plans had to be solid or there is a good chance that the meeting will not happen.
Plus keeping track of people. 60 years ago you had to call them, now you can get updates on everyone at anytime.
Entertainment is a part of daily life, sixty years ago you had no choice. Now you have an amazing amount of choices. 60 years ago parents did not have to worry so much about getting their kids to play outside.
Shopping is a huge part of our daily life, as 60 years ago when you went out, you had to bring money. If you were out past 5 pm or so, and you ran out of money, you stopped spending money because you couldn't. Maybe you could write a check. Heck even 15 years ago, going to a McDonald's and being able to pay with a debit card was pretty rare.
The personal computer changes our daily life a lot. 60 years ago, I couldn't read your thought or even write a disagreement with it unless you wrote an editorial for a newspaper.
If I told someone 60 years go that they would be able to sit in front of a magical box that allows them to watch movies, listen to music, shop, chat live with video with people, pay their bills, check their bank balance, buy stocks, read any book or any other printed material from anywhere in the world, watch tv, record tv to watch later, and the other things a personal computer can do their heads would explode.
Yes cars still have four wheels and houses still pretty much look the same, however to say the daily life of people is hasn't changed much due to technology in the last 60 years is one of the most untrue statements I have ever read. My daily routine is very different than my dad's when he was 33, and that was only 17 years ago.shula_guy likes this. -
of course, these these things have improved everything around us and our lives have changed for sure. but you are essentially describing the same things we do and have been doing for 60 years (or how ever long) only doing them differently or easier.
for example, i would put something like refrigeration (think about it) or mass availability of electricity as being fundamental changes. the information age is probably that next leap. im arguing that it is still ongoing and not realized yet. im going a bit bigger here. i wouldnt say that using a GPS nav vs. reading a map is not the game changer as flipping a light switch vs. lighting a lamp of whale oil.
the point is not to dismiss what has occurred in the last few decades but to wonder where we can go next and if the current ways we live will have to change to adapt to new technologies. beyond that is if there is some limit of the way a lot of technologies affect us.
for example, nano-medicine extending our lives to 200 years. that would change everything and certainly more than streaming an episode of Glee does :lol:Fin D likes this. -
shula_guy Well-Known Member
Significant changes that have taken place over the past 60 years:
1. Refrigeration predates the 60yr mark but not by much but that definitely allowed people to move away from farms and allowed cities to grow into large metropolises.
2. Not sure on the age of the orgin of plastics but in the last 60 years it certainly has greatly altered our quality of life.
3. We are still improving computers and finding more and more uses for them.
4. Wirless technologies have allowed us to make electronic devices portable
5. batteries have become smaller and more powerfull making those same devices portable.
6. Medicine has vastly improved and is continuing to do so.
We have made huge strides in the past 60 years. I could go n and on as Dupree did. You are diminishing the significance of the things he listed. Many of them are fundamental building blocks for things yet to come and will be looked back upon as turning points in our civilalization. People probably did not think much of Franklin discovering electric in the begining and the scientists did not envision what the intewrnet would bvecome when they created it either.
If you want to look at this in the macro sense it requires you to use your imaginination and envision where the discoveries of today can lead us to tomorrow.
Let me give you an example of what I mean. Last Sunday 60 minutes did a somewhat negative piece on the food flavoring industry. These people make artifical flavors to add to foods to make us want to buy them. 60 minutes chose to look at the bad aspects of that because they were focused on items like potatoe chips that taste like hot wings and they made a case of how its harming peoples health by making them addicting to unhealthy foods.
My thoughts were what if they took this delicious chemical additive and added it to low calorie nutrious foods. Would that not be a fundamental game changer like you are looking for. People would eat healthy food because they like it instead of because its good for them. The nutrition would simply become a side benefit. Its all a matter of perspective. I happen to believe man is instinctivily good and given the choice between doing something bad or something good, if you remove consequence from it, man will chose to do whats good.maynard likes this. -
im not trying to downplay them, but i would probably say that the industrial revolution changed our lives more than the information age has (at this point). something like the division of labor is one of the biggest changes in how we live our lives in all of history.
so im talking beyond things like reheating your soup in the microwave.
im asking if you guys anticipate leaps like the division of labor and things of fancy like colonizing another planet.
or are we just going to see the things around us that we normally do improve? -
shula_guy Well-Known Member
I saw something on scientists that are working on how to transfer your personality into computer devices so you can leave your biological body and become a thinking machine. They are waiting for the process power of a computer to catch up to the brain.
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shula_guy Well-Known Member
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I think Gish or Sick mentioned something about 3d porn not being available yet... :shifty:
maynard likes this. -
Your argument is unfounded and honestly doesn't make much sense. I would put the personal computer and the internet up there with refrigeration and mass availability of electricity and the car and fire when it comes to game changers.
Yes, of course humanity is not done innovating. Just because humans are not done improving doesn't mean they haven't been really improving.
I look forward to seeing where we go in 10 years. I have read articles that in 15 years or so humanity might find the cure for death.Stitches likes this. -
I agree to an extant with Desides, but where I disagree with D, is that the PC is the ONLY advancement that meets Maynard's premise.
There some things that could change that though on the horizon:
- Cloning. The mapping of the human genome, is the scratching of the surface. The effects of this aren't even partially realized yet, so it doesn't count yet....but it will.
- Robotics. Not yet there either, but will be. -
I think Graphene and other nano material could also be a game changer.
When they find a way to mass produce graphene, the world as we know it will be much different.Fin D likes this. -
the biggest thing i see holding us back has been energy. we still mostly burn the same oil. in 1980 many futurists would have probably predicted a far different and more advanced world and energy is likely one of the biggest obstacles.
Limiters:
is our future to remain in similar homes in similar neighborhoods, drive some kind of vehicle on the ground to an office and remain on Earth with similar life expectancies?
curing death would be interesting because we would have to find a way off of Earth
there is a decent dose of science fiction fantasy underlying here -
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1.21 Jiggawatts later... -
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/technology-blog/scientists-optimize-3d-printer-create-bones-015433333.html -
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Well, our earth is running out of space for all of us. But not to worry. We've found a new potential home in the newly discovered Kepler-22b. Now we only need to figure out how to get there and once there, how to retro-fit everyone with gills. ;)
maynard likes this. -
just when I thought it better not to author original threads after enjoying an end-of-the-night toke, I came across this piece from the Financial Times that takes my thoughts on this to another level:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ea3bb3b4-2a7d-11e1-8f04-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1hHtaH7jL
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I mean the only invention that was as much of a game changer as the printing press was the personal computer. I mean you've got fire, the wheel, the printing press and the pc. If an era invented one of those four, you can't say they were slacking. -
however the idea that our production has fallen in most real terms because we have plucked the low hanging fruit is not a crazy argument. much of these things are tied to innovation and invention. energy will get us there though -
Not too mention a lot of innovation and production have come in the form of software development.maynard likes this. -
its interesting to think that financialization over the last couple of decades could be providing a disincentive for innovation and invention.
could be a byproduct of being able to make more money by selling credit on a product rather than just selling the product itself -
Then there's that camera MIT just developed that I made a post about earlier. It can take a trillion frames a second. That is fast enough to essentially see time. That will lead to quite a few new innovations on the macro scale, because it will give us visual data we never had before. Done right, its possible to see a thought actually happen. Think about that.maynard likes this. -
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And would add on the broader level. Whats the discovery along the lines of the next combustion engine, harnessing of electricity, antibiotic medicine? Game changers of science and technology whose creation spurns an evolution of others and how people live.shula_guy likes this. -
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Part of the Thiel and Schmidt conversation. Would like to find a vid:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/17/transcript-schmidt-thiel/
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3D-Printed Human Embryonic Stem Cells Created for First Time
http://news.yahoo.com/3d-printed-human-embryonic-stem-cells-created-first-165551783.html
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The real question is...why is that the first thing you thought of????????Ohio Fanatic likes this. -
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Just saw this thread, some interesting thoughts. Future technology is fairly exciting to think about!
To answer Maynard's original premise - 3d printing could potentially be a massive game changer, depending on how prevalent it becomes, it's ease of use, and access to raw materials to print with. Essentially, how much would life change if we have Star Trek Replicator units?
The other major one could potentially be nanotech. I don't really know much about it, but on the surface it seems like it could have a ton of uses (medical, environmental, pretty much anything) that is hard to fathom. I am not sure what the limitations on this may be though.
"Curing death" if possible would be fascinating, but it would also require the "curing" of age and brain decay. It will have the immediate impact of forcing us to impose birth limits, and looking to build offworld colonies. There is not much incentive to do so now unless population demands it, or we find a way to harvest raw materials in space relatively cheaply. Additionally though, can you imagine being able to keep some of the world's great minds going indefinitely? What if Leonardo or Newton was able to be kept alive, how much faster they might have been able to advance us? Now maybe we could do that with our current top thinkers and innovators and any who many come after.
Personally, the most practical and easily obtainable thing on the horizon I want is the damned automated car. Having all automated vehicles could massively reduce traffic congestion, fatalities/injuries, potentially be environmentally helpful by reducing emissions/consumption. It would allow for travel by minors or eldery to be much easier, allowing them freedom of travel, it would allow for a viable competitor for air travel. This one excites me a lot! -
http://news.yahoo.com/3-d-printing-goes-sci-fi-fantasy-reality-133123371.html
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How about the artificial leaf?
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