There has been lots of talk about the call by Joe Philbin to run the ball late in the game against the Packers, and his statement following the game about how his feeling "queasy" led him to call a run play rather than a pass on 3rd and long.
Some information to consider that puts that game and that call into context is that the Dolphins were losing the game 17-10 entering the 4th quarter. The Dolphins were losing 7 of their 16 games in 2014 entering the 4th quarter (44%). The Dolphins had a 7-point lead or better entering the 4th quarter in 5 of its 16 games in 2014 (31%).
On the other hand, the four teams with first-round byes in the playoffs this year, combined, were losing only 28% of their games entering the 4th quarter in 2014, and they had 7-point leads or better entering the 4th quarter in 56% of their games. In the league as a whole in 2014, teams leading by 7 points or more entering the 4th quarter won 90% of those games.
Furthermore, there is a 0.97 correlation between teams' win percentage between 2004 and 2014 and their total point differential (positive or negative) entering the 4th quarter. For example, the Patriots' win percentage between 2004 and 2014 is 77% (a 136-40 record), and they have averaged a league-leading 8-point lead entering the 4th quarter in games during that period. On the other hand, the Dolphins have a 42% win percentage between 2004 and 2014 (a 74-102 record), and they have averaged a 1-point deficit entering the 4th quarter in games during that period. Similarly, the Dolphins were losing by 7 points entering the 4th quarter in the game in which Joe Philbin was reportedly "queasy."
In other words, the best teams in the league don't let games seemingly hinge on single play calls or other similarly isolated events. They get control of a much bigger percentage of games and have them largely decided by the time Joe Philbin reportedly got "queasy" and called a run play on 3rd and long. This is where the Dolphins need to get as a team.
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Tell the defense to get off the field on 3rd and long once in a while.
ASOT, padre31, DevilFin13 and 1 other person like this. -
Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member
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For example, the fact that this team has only two Pro Bowl players, combined with a QB who is not yet playing at an elite level, is far more a cause of its current level of play than any one coaching decision in a game, even if that coaching decision reflects a general disposition of the coach or even a team culture. When the team has the necessary talent to compete with the best teams in the league, then we'll be at the point at which single coaching decisions, or coaching dispositions, start to matter. -
If your conclusion is that it takes 60 minutes to lose a game rather than one play or play call then you're absolutely correct. The play you did not make in the 1st quarter as you ran out to a 14-0 lead that could have been a 21-0 lead could be just as responsible for losing the gam as that final touchdown pass you let up which lost you a 20-21 game. Every play counts.
The reason Queasy Joe has earned himself that nick name is because of his own performance as the head coach.
While we often grade a coach by the performance of his team overall, there are so many moving parts and other individuals that can be evaluated that go into success or non-success that this is only a very loose method of evaluating a head coach. For example Rex Ryan is regarded well despite having a losing record as a head coach. But that's because we are capable as human beings of processing a magnitude of details in order to make our evaluations, and some of those details will involve individual examples where the head coach can/should be credited for something.
The "queasy" incident is just one of the many detail oriented examples of incidents that give us strong clues as to what kind of coach Joe Philbin is. All week he met with coaches and players and told them their focus in that situation would be to be aggressive because the quarterback they're facing can and will bring his team back in a final drive situation. That's fine. I don't know if there is a right or wrong to that decision. You can plan to be aggressive or you can plan to be conservative. Either is probably as good as the other.
What isn't acceptable is planning to be aggressive, having everyone underneath you on the same page that way, letting your offensive coordinator call a few plays accordingly, and then suddenly throwing away everything you had been planning all week, and going conservative after you had already been aggressive. That is the worst thing you can do.
I understand that too often fans accuse smart football calls of being evidence of being too conservative or coaching scared. But just because there are examples where those accusations are baseless doesn't mean they're ALWAYS baseless. And in this instance, you've been planning things one way all week long and everyone is on the same page, you start calling it the way you had it planned and then you abort because you felt "queasy"...that is indeed coaching scared.
And he did it before against the Bills. He did something I am not sure I have ever seen. He got the ball with more than two minutes left in the half, with three timeouts, and ordered his offensive coordinator to run out the clock. That is simply ludicrous. I am not sure I have ever seen that. It's pretty much on the same order of lunacy as when Marty Morninwheg chose in sudden death overtime to play on defense first.
These calls don't have to have been THE thing that lost the game in order to criticize the coach for them. They just have to be nonsensical to the point of obviousness, because such obvious idiotic moments point toward a lot more idiotic decisions that perhaps we as fans CAN'T see. Sort of like when a guy gets caught beating his wife, you kind of assume that's probably not his first time getting physical with a woman, and likely won't be his last.Springveldt, RGF, FinSane and 4 others like this. -
What if he had a 7 point lead with 43 seconds left on a 3rd and 12? Stick with the "plan" just so you don't come off as a *****?Piston Honda likes this. -
Springveldt and padre31 like this.
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To me the play that Quesy got his name from wasn't the worst queasy play of the that particular game. The time out he called before GB ran the forth and ten play from their 40 was for more egregious. I'm surprised he didn't sh#t himself right there on the sidelines. I wanted to leave the game when he did that, I knew we would lose.
Springveldt, resnor and djphinfan like this. -
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When you have an impossible decision being "queasy" is perfectly natural, its not a sign of weakness or being passive. I've seen plenty of the most aggressive people on the planet get "queasy" when forced to make high stakes decisions that amount to nothing more than coin flips. -
resnor likes this.
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Springveldt, DPlus47, finfansince72 and 1 other person like this.
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And the fact that GB used all the dock doesn't really mean anything. Teams tend to use all the clock available to them in situations or they fail trying.resnor, LI phinfan and ckparrothead like this. -
The team has a long way to go in terms of acquiring additional talent for head coaching decisions to be of any great weight in deciding its overall performance, and for all we know, that level of talent could very well make the performance we've seen from Philbin so far immaterial. In other words, if the team had the talent of let's say the Dallas Cowboys, it's likely that Joe Philbin could coach just exactly the same way he has (regardless of whether one deems that to have been good or bad), and the team would still be highly successful. -
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In other words, it's entirely possible that Joe Philbin made a half-dozen or so decisions we're unaware of that took the Dolphins from being down 7 points entering the 4th quarter, to being up 4 points at the "queasy" point, and we're focusing only on something we know (that he felt "queasy" at that point), rather than things we don't (the decisions he may have made earlier in the quarter, that made the game more competitive than usual). -
Calling defensive timeouts, icing kickers, which color you wear, and deferring at the coin toss are all decisions that fall outside the realm of game theory. Its silly to act like you know for a fact how any of those decisions will affect the outcome of the game. Maybe calling the timeout results in you losing 45% of the time and not calling the timeout results in you losing 55% of the time. Either way you are going to lose a lot of the time. Either way you are going to have some people saying "if that decision was wrong then the opposite must have been right."
All I know for a fact is Aaron Rodgers is really good.Piston Honda likes this. -
When you got your opponent on the ropes and momentum going in your favor, you do not call an untimely timeout giving the other team an incredible advantage. He basically gave GB a lifeline and they took it and ran with it. The worst thing you can do as a coach is take the game out of your players and assistant coaches control, showing that you have zero confidence in them to get the job done, and then basically hand the game to your opponent with untimely decisions. There have been many other instances of Philbin calling a bad game, but the Green Bay game this year was a textbook example of why Philbin is not Head Coach material.
The G Man, RGF, Fin-Omenal and 1 other person like this. -
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Just go look at the comments from the game day threads before and after the TD pass to Wallace at the end of the half in the New England game. Within a minute Philbin went from being a huge moron to a genius. Why? Simply because Wallace stayed in bounds by inches? The decision is either right or wrong, results shouldn't factor in to how you feel about the decision.
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He is simply not a good game day field general, he does not trust his guys. His staff can coach guys up, no doubt about that, and that is his strength..gameday feel..nope -
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