Why wouldn't we out TUA in late game?

"canesz06 wrote:

Ok. Let's say that we finish 6-10 this year and next year we're not any better. Same trash receivers, same trash O-line. Do you hide tua on the sidelines again until we get pro bowl receivers and O-line? When does it end? If they are so worried about him being so fragile, then maybe they should have drafted Herbert instead.

OL is playing pretty decent this year and is still very young. What makes you think they won’t improve next year?

"mlb1399 wrote:

OL is playing pretty decent this year and is still very young. What makes you think they won’t improve next year?

What if they don't? Should tua still sit?

"canesz06 wrote:

What if they don't? Should tua still sit?

Honestly we spent a #5 pick on Tua. He’s going to get his chance when the coaches are ready.

Im more curious why you think our OL that averages around 25 won’t get better? Also curious why you don’t think our receivers will get better after seeing Preston, Parker and Gesicki make major strides?

"mlb1399 wrote:

Honestly we spent a #5 pick on Tua. He’s going to get his chance when the coaches are ready.

Im more curious why you think our OL that averages around 25 won’t get better? Also curious why you don’t think our receivers will get better after seeing Preston, Parker and Gesicki make major strides?

I'm just throwing out hypotheticals to figure out when people think the perfect situation for tua to play will be. Clearly he's not ready yet, so I'm just trying get an idea of when he will be. Btw, do you see how good Herbert looks tonight?

"cbrad wrote:

Just so you know, that's ESPN's proprietary QBR, not passer rating. Anytime you see "Total QBR" from an ESPN website that's what they mean. In terms of passer rating Fitz is almost exactly average at 95.3 (league average right now is 95.5):
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

I think passer rating is more intuitive in this case because it's REALLY hard to consider Fitz a top 4 QB this year (i.e., over 5 games "average" seems right). Either way, it's best not to reference ESPN's QBR because it's a black box rating system with 10,000+ lines of code that no one outside of ESPN understands (e.g., how are they defining their "clutch" factor?).

There’s a fair bit of evidence that ESPN don’t understand their code. The issue about the highest QBR rated game in history, and how they “resolved” it tells me that even they can’t explain it to themselves.

"canesz06 wrote:

I'm just throwing out hypotheticals to figure out when people think the perfect situation for tua to play will be. Clearly he's not ready yet, so I'm just trying get an idea of when he will be. Btw, do you see how good Herbert looks tonight?

Are you making the argument the Miami Dolphins are as good of a TEAM as the LA Chargers?

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Are you making the argument the Miami Dolphins are as good of a TEAM as the LA Chargers?

I'd say they are equal but if you go by records, Miami is the better team. What does that have to do with Herbert looking good?

Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson started as rookies from day one and doesn't seem to have hurt their careers.

"canesz06 wrote:

Because if be was good enough and healthy enough, he'd be playing. Fitz had a good game yesterday but he's very inconsistent and Tua can't beat him out. Miami is 2-3 it's not like we're 5-0. Fitz is not taking the dolphins to the playoffs. Those are my two reasons. What are your reasons as to why he's not starting?

Fitz is not the reason the dolphins lost three games. The offense has been puting up plenty of points. The passing game has been firing on all cylinders. Putting Tua in is not going to improve our defense or running game which are the real reasons we lost those games.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson started as rookies from day one and doesn't seem to have hurt their careers.

That kind of argument leads nowhere because: 1) we don't know whether great QB's that did NOT start immediately (e.g., Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Montana, Mahomes, etc.) would have still ended up great had they started from day one, and 2) we don't know whether QB's that DID start immediately and busted would have done better had they sat and waited (though with David Carr there's a really good argument to be made).

It's an unknowable. So I don't think there's evidence to suggest WHEN it's best to start Tua. We just know there are many great QB's that did not start immediately, meaning that Tua not starting at this point says nothing about how he'll end up.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Are you making the argument the Miami Dolphins are as good of a TEAM as the LA Chargers?

The Chargers are currently 1-4 and nothing special. In fact the Dolphins have performed better this year:

[ATTACH:full]

And that includes tonight's game.

"The Guy wrote:

The Chargers are currently 1-4 and nothing special.

Something was wrong with the play calling by the Chargers today. In the 3rd quarter they acted like it was the 4th quarter, and in the 4th it was like Italian football (soccer): let's protect the lead when the game is tied!!

Herbert is good (still a bit young and makes some errors but he'll be a good one it seems) and they have components of a good defense, but somehow it's not coming together. Coaching, and specifically play calling, seems suspect IMO.

"cbrad wrote:

Just so you know, that's ESPN's proprietary QBR, not passer rating. Anytime you see "Total QBR" from an ESPN website that's what they mean. In terms of passer rating Fitz is almost exactly average at 95.3 (league average right now is 95.5):
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

I think passer rating is more intuitive in this case because it's REALLY hard to consider Fitz a top 4 QB this year (i.e., over 5 games "average" seems right). Either way, it's best not to reference ESPN's QBR because it's a black box rating system with 10,000+ lines of code that no one outside of ESPN understands (e.g., how are they defining their "clutch" factor?).

That would be the only remaining question, however, as we've determined that QBR is nothing more than clutch-weighted EPA.

On the ESPN website it indicates that "low leverage plays" are "down-weighted according to ESPN's win probability model." They're simply using some cutoff in terms of win probability to down-weight "garbage time" performance.

If you look here:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/schedAdjQBR/dir/desc

...you'll see that Fitzpatrick is getting credit for EPA with regard to runs, penalties, and sacks in a manner that -- taken together -- perhaps distinguishes him favorably from other QBs. That probably explains the QBR elevation from average in terms of the comparison with traditional passer rating, which incorporates none of those variables.

"cbrad wrote:

Something was wrong with the play calling by the Chargers today. In the 3rd quarter they acted like it was the 4th quarter, and in the 4th it was like Italian football (soccer): let's protect the lead when the game is tied!!

What, you mean the "2019 Tennessee Titans formula"? :chuckle:

"The Guy wrote:

That would be the only remaining question, however, as we've determined that QBR is nothing more than clutch-weighted EPA.

On the ESPN website it indicates that "low leverage plays" are "down-weighted according to ESPN's win probability model." They're simply using some cutoff in terms of win probability to down-weight "garbage time" performance.

If you look here:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/schedAdjQBR/dir/desc

...you'll see that Fitzpatrick is getting credit for EPA with regard to runs, penalties, and sacks in a manner that -- taken together -- perhaps distinguishes him favorably from other QBs. That probably explains the QBR elevation from average in terms of the comparison with traditional passer rating, which incorporates none of those variables.

It's a lot more than that. If all you did was clutch-weight EPA with some win probability cut-off that's probably less than 10 lines of code with 2 lookup tables, one for EPA and one for win probability. ESPN's QBR spans 10,000+ lines of code!!

What the hell they are doing there is anyone's guess, and Pauly's right that with something that complex the programmer himself doesn't know how things will turn out (they know what they put in, but they don't know what comes out).

Also, according to wiki they consider how far a pass travels in the air as well as whether the QB was under pressure or not, which already is more than you're talking about. And that's just what people can glean from the outside.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

At this point the "play Tua now" crowd are just the nagging of trolls. Most of you have fed them with your best food, but they cry for more. Stop feeding them.

"canesz06 wrote:

Ok. Let's say that we finish 6-10 this year and next year we're not any better. Same trash receivers, same trash O-line. Do you hide tua on the sidelines again until we get pro bowl receivers and O-line? When does it end? If they are so worried about him being so fragile, then maybe they should have drafted Herbert instead.

I didn't say the receivers or the line was trash....I said they're not doing great today. Big difference. And if you don't trust the coach today, then the biggest problem isn't Tua anyway; that means we're doomed for another rebuild and a front office/coaching change no matter what.

Why did Aaron Rodgers sit on the bench for 3 years?
Because Brett Favre wouldn't leave.

"Triggercut wrote:

At this point the "play Tua now" crowd are just the nagging of trolls. Most of you have fed them with your best food, but they cry for more. Stop feeding them.

I see. So people who would like to see the QB that their team invested a top 5 pick on actually play to see what they have in him, are trolls. Got it. What a bunch of idiots we are. Who in their right mind would be interested in seeing him play? Did you see Justin Herbert last night? Did you see him throw 4 td's? He looks really good. Not as good as Tua looks holding a clip board though.

"canesz06 wrote:

Is there a rule in the NFL that if he came in he could only hand off? He could have came in and they could have called all passing plays to get him some real game experience and get used to the speed of the game. Do you not think that would be a good idea? When would you like him to play?

Just a sportsmanship rule about not throwing when you're destroying the other team.

"canesz06 wrote:

I see. So people who would like to see the QB that their team invested a top 5 pick on actually play to see what they have in him, are trolls. Got it. What a bunch of idiots we are. Who in their right mind would be interested in seeing him play? Did you see Justin Herbert last night? Did you see him throw 4 td's? He looks really good. Not as good as Tua looks holding a clip board though.

Mahomes looked awful holding a clipboard his rookie season too. Terrible pick by the Chiefs.

"canesz06 wrote:

I see. So people who would like to see the QB that their team invested a top 5 pick on actually play to see what they have in him, are trolls. Got it. What a bunch of idiots we are. Who in their right mind would be interested in seeing him play? Did you see Justin Herbert last night? Did you see him throw 4 td's? He looks really good. Not as good as Tua looks holding a clip board though.

You're close to trolling not because you want to see the QB play but because you sound like a broken record. No matter how people try to interact with your points all you want to do is repeat the points you're convinced of - that the only possible reasons Tua isn't playing are because he's bad or fragile. You absolutely refuse to entertain any other perspective. Then you go on to say that Flores is engaged in some sort of coverup of Tua whom he knows is broken or horrible, and as proof you claim the fact that Flores isn't engaging Tua in a passing attack at the end of a game (again refusing to acknowledge any other possible reasons why he might not do that).

At this point there's basically no reason, at all, to talk with you on this subject, because all anyone is getting from you is:
Tua is a bust.
Flores is covering it up.
You love Justin Herbert.

We've got it. You don't need to keep repeating it. Either engage with people in proper conversation and consider their points, or else don't be surprised if people do treat you like a troll and ignore you.

"cbrad wrote:

It's a lot more than that. If all you did was clutch-weight EPA with some win probability cut-off that's probably less than 10 lines of code with 2 lookup tables, one for EPA and one for win probability. ESPN's QBR spans 10,000+ lines of code!!

What the hell they are doing there is anyone's guess, and Pauly's right that with something that complex the programmer himself doesn't know how things will turn out (they know what they put in, but they don't know what comes out).

Also, according to wiki they consider how far a pass travels in the air as well as whether the QB was under pressure or not, which already is more than you're talking about. And that's just what people can glean from the outside.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

If you hover your cursor over the column headers on this page:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/schedAdjQBR/dir/desc

...you'll see they've defined all of the ingredients of QBR, and there is nothing there about air yards or QB pressures. The remaining unknowns are the WP level at which performance is down-weighted, as well as the "defensive adjustment." However, "QBR raw" is so similar to QBR that the defensive adjustment that accounts for the difference between the two must be minimal.

"byroan wrote:

Mahomes looked awful holding a clipboard his rookie season too. Terrible pick by the Chiefs.

Alex Smith took the Chiefs to the playoffs the year before and was playing well. Why would you take him out? We won 5 games last year and may win 7 this year if we're lucky. What are you gaining by playing fitz over your first round QB?

"Galant wrote:

You're close to trolling not because you want to see the QB play but because you sound like a broken record. No matter how people try to interact with your points all you want to do is repeat the points you're convinced of - that the only possible reasons Tua isn't playing are because he's bad or fragile. You absolutely refuse to entertain any other perspective. Then you go on to say that Flores is engaged in some sort of coverup of Tua whom he knows is broken or horrible, and as proof you claim the fact that Flores isn't engaging Tua in a passing attack at the end of a game (again refusing to acknowledge any other possible reasons why he might not do that).

At this point there's basically no reason, at all, to talk with you on here, because all anyone will get from you is:
Tua is a bust.
Flores is covering it up.
You love Justin Herbert.

We've got it. You don't need to keep repeating it. Either engage with people in proper conversation and consider their points, or else don't be surprised if people do treat you like a troll and ignore you.

I am engaging but since you don't agree with what I'm saying, it's not proper conversion I guess. And yes, i think tua will be a bust and wanted Herbert. Those are my opinions. It seems like a lot of people on here only want to hear opinions from people who think like they do. I do consider everyone's points but somehow, my points make me a troll. I guess we'll see who was right as the season progresses