I was about to say the EXACT same thing!

 

Agreed

 

Watt is going to win. He's more commercial.

 

Here's the deal: Gilmore won in 2019 with competition from Donald and Watt. Fast forward to 2020, and Donald/Watt put up almost identical numbers as they did a year ago -- numbers that weren't good enough for DPOY with Gilmore in the conversation. This year, Howard blew Gilmore's 2019 campaign out of the water in nearly every facet, and yet, despite having competition equal to that from a year ago, he's an underdog in the DPOY convo.

Conclusion: Howard won't win because 1) he's a Dolphin, 2) he's lesser known, 3) the narrative that "it's been awhile" since Donald last won is enticing to voters who feel he's owed another honor, and 4) the narrative that "he hasn't gotten one yet" regarding Watt is enticing to voters who feel he's owed his first honor

All bull****.

Bottom line: if Stephon Gilmore's 2019 campaign is the standard for DPOY as a CB, then Xavien Howard's 2020 campaign makes him a shoe-in.

For reference:

Gilmore 2019
G/GS: 16/16
INT: 6
TD: 2
YDS: 126
PD: 20
FF: 0
FR: 1
COM: 53
SOLO: 44
TFL: 0
PFF: 82.8

Howard 2020
G/GS: 16/16
INT: 10
TD: 0
YDS: 77
PD: 20
FF: 1
FR: 0
COM: 51
SOLO: 40
TFL: 1
PFF: 87.3

 

Agreed. He's not a household name though and we're not a playoff team. Now neither of those points should matter but I'm almost certain it's going to play into the minds of whoever votes for these awards.

Those stats comparing it to Gilmore's DPOY year prove he's deserving of the award. Curious to note, the guys Gilmore beat out that year; how do their stats compare to those that X is up against this year potentially?

In 2019....
- Gilmore had 21 votes and his stats were posted above... very comparable to X in 2020.
- Chandler Jones had 14 votes... with 19 sacks, 5 PDEF & 48 total tackles in 2019.
- TJ Watt had 10 votes... with 14.5 sacks, 8 PDEF, 2 INT & 52 total tackles in 2019.

In 2020...
- TJ Watt has 15 sacks this year, 7 PDEF, 1 INT & 47 total tackles.
- X has comparable numbers to Gilmore's 2019 DPOY season.
- some sports betting sites show Aaron Donald as a favorite... 13.5 sacks, 1 PDEF, 44 tackles.

I mean, if Gilmore is the standard for a DB winning DPOY based on his 2019 year; then Xavien Howard surely is in the same class with his stats this year.

If it truly is a defensive PLAYER of the year award based on individual merits & not team success; then it's got to be X's award.

 

You know what those stats tell me? Why the heck didn't we draft TJ Watt over a CB with our final first round pick!?! It's not like everyone didn't expect him to be dominant...I just don't understand why he wasn't a Dolphin.

 

Good point, who did we take over him again?

Edit: Ahh... you may be confusing the draft. That year we picked Charles Harris at 22, Watt went at #30

 

The CB Noah Igbinoghene. Watt was taken 30th overall.

 

No, see above/below. TJ went in the 2017 draft at #30. We took Charles Harris at #22

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft

 

Oh heck, I had my years combined. That solves that, LOL.

 

It's all good! I couldn't recall clearly either. When you initially said it I thought Codrea Tankersly and got mad about what a wasted pick was if we took him over Watt. He was a 3rd rounder that year though IIRC. Fact still remains though; we blew it

 

Donald 2019

G/GS: 16/16
FF: 2
FR: 1
SK: 12.5
COM: 48
SOLO: 29
TFL: 20
QBHits: 24
SFTY: 1
INT: 0
PD: 2
PFF: 93.6

Donald 2020

G/GS: 16/16
FF: 4
FR: 1
SK: 13.5
COM: 45
SOLO: 27
TFL: 14
QBHits: 26
SFTY: 0
INT: 0
PD: 1
PFF: 94.5

Watt 2019

G/GS: 16/16
FF: 8
FR: 4
SK: 14.5
COM: 55
SOLO: 35
TFL: 14
QBHits: 36
SFTY: 0
INT: 2
PD: 8
PFF: 91.3

Watt 2020

G/GS: 15/15
FF: 2
FR: 0
SK: 15
COM: 53
SOLO: 43
TFL: 23
QBHits: 41
SFTY: 0
INT: 1
PD: 7
PFF: 91.6

Howard is up against what is essentially the same strength of competition that Gilmore had in 2019.

 

When it comes to the CB position it's not as simple as comparing basic stats. How many yards did Howard give up this year compared to Gilmore? How many TDs? Gilmore covered the opposing teams best WR did Howard do the same? What were opposing QB's QB rating and completion % against Gilmore compared to Howard?

 

Howard's are here and Gilmore's are here, if you're interested.

The advanced metrics tell the same story. Howard was in the same ballpark as Gilmore in nearly all categories, with better ratings going to each in differing categories.

For example, Gilmore got the better of Howard in the yards allowed category (501 to 812) and the TD's allowed category (1 to 3). However, Howard was targeted more and had to defend nearly 60 more routes than Gilmore. Additionally, opposing receivers averaged .66 yards of separation on a reception with Howard in coverage (good for 2nd in the NFL), while receivers averaged 1.18 yards of separation on a reception with Gilmore in coverage (49th in the NFL), meaning Gilmore got burned more. And while Gilmore managed to keep opposing QB's to a 41.8 rating when targeted (Howard 50.3) both of these marks were good for 1st among all DB's in their respective seasons.

Again, it's give and take. Howard created more turnovers, pass breakups, and got burned significantly less. Gilmore had better stats against opposing receivers/quarterbacks. However, both guys were still elite even in the categories that they weren't better than the other in. All things considered, they are at least in the same boat, and with the competition remaining almost entirely stagnant, I don't see how Howard isn't the rightful winner of DPOY.

*This is without considering PFF's grading scale, where Howard holds a 5 point advantage over Gilmore.

 

I wouldn’t compare X to Gilmore’s 2019. Gilmore getting DPOY was weak sauce, based on I don't know what. Gilmore never stood out for me like other DPOYs. I’m not saying he played badly and in fact he genuinely played at all-pro level. It’s just that he didn’t memorably dominate the game in the way a DPOY should.

 

Xavien Howard ALONE had more interceptions than what, half of the teams in the NFL all season.

That ONE fact alone warrants his awarding DPOY.

 

Not really Antonio Cromartie had 10 in 2007, Champ Bailey had 10 in 2006, Ty Law had 10 in 2005, Ronde Barber had 10 in 2001 and there were plenty other players with 9 on the season since 2000.

 

He's just talking about 2020. X man had more interceptions than most TEAMS in the NFL this season.
But you just prove the case even more, 10 INT's in a season is big time baller stuff!

 

Yes I understand he was talking about 2020 but 10 interceptions alone does not warrant the DPOY award because if it did all the players I listed as having 10 interceptions in their respective years would have won DPOY but that was not the case for any of them.

 

X has been selected First-team All-Pro, along with Jason Sanders.

Jakeem Grant is second-team punt returner.

Congratulations to all three.

 

Given how rare double digit INT numbers are, it should be an easy choice for Howard to win it. As others have noted, not being a well known name and playing for the Dolphins means he won't get it.

 

He had 7 interceptions two years ago.

I know I am a Dolphin fan, but I would think he would be well-known name with sports writers.

 

For a CB, I wonder if there’s a correlation between CB’s who scored TD’s and winning the award? While sacks definitely impact the game and QB, INT’s have a higher impact on win probability. But I think sacks get more glorified by the media.

 

TJ Watt needs to start giving people upper deckers.

 

He’s a Miami Dolphin...did anyone expect anyone on our team to get any respect?

 

Criminal X didn't win. Not just because he's a phin, but because his season far outweighs that of any defensive player. Awards were a popularity contest again. Just like the league itself. Tonights game is a good example as well.

 

Howard had a case for DPOTY... TJ Watt was almost a lock

 

Dont see how you can put TJ over X, but to each their own.

 

Exactly, how he only gets 3 votes for a season statistically on par with another player of his position that WON the DPOY award is a bit of a mystery.

Same for Flores as COTY, but that one I can understand. I think if we had gotten the the playoffs; maybe a different story for him. I get it though, Stefanski did a great job in Cleveland especially with all their Covid issues, although I guess you could put that on him too if you wanted but that's not the point here. I think though that you should have excpected the playoffs from Cleveland. Sure their history says otherwise, but the amount of talent on that roster screams playoff team IMO; especially when compared to ours.

Just seems like all the awards, "lucky" calls, and all of the attention goes to a few specific teams that the media tends to always gravitate towards. Success brings that about in a way of course; we all get that but I think in the NFL's case it just seems to have far too much importance.

 

Nobody cares about the Dolphins and unless you're in 100 commercials you're not winning anything.