There has been plenty of discussion in the offseason about if/how much RT17 will improve in 2016.
So for bragging rights at the end of the season how about we put up projections for Tannehill's personal production in 2016. We'll see who was more realistic, the boosters or the haters.
Guidelines.
1) personal kind of stats only, ones that Tannehill has significant indivicual control over. Not team W/L records which will depend on the running game and D to a significant degree.
2) Some explanation for why you project the outcome.
3) Assume Tannehill stays healthy and won't be seriously affected by injury.
For me I expect a final passing stat line in the region of
330 of 500 passes for 3750-4000 yards. 30TDs to 10 ints.
66%; 7.5-8.0 ypa; 6% TD, 2% Int. passer rating 100-102.
I am specifically looking for a significant improvement in passer rating in 3rd and long situations.
In the Lazor years Tannehill was consistently a 100 rated passer in the following situations (a) When Albert-Pouncey-James started and finished (b) when the phins ran more than 35% of the time (c) when the phins had a lead. To my mind this shows that RT can consistently be a 100 rated QB. the next question is why didn't he show it all the time? The short version is coaching and OL. The OL should be strongly improved over last year. The area of coaching that I think is most importnt insofar as Tannehill's production is concerned is that Lazor's playcalling got too predictable when behind.
I don't think the D is good enough to keep the opposing teams off the field consistently.I also expect a pass/run ration closer to 60/40 than the 65/35 of the Lazor years soI expect volume to be down while the efficiency goes up.
Tannehill has been pretty bad on 3rd and long through his career but slowly improving. With improved playcalling and natural progression I think this specific area will jump up in 2016
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IDC what his "numbers" look like good or bad...IDC what the team record is good or bad. If he plays the position well? We must keep him and hope he finally has arrived. He needs to make more plays and play better football in crucial situations (3rd down 4th Qt) everything else is trivial.
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400/600
4500 yards
35 TDs
10 INTs
Those would add up to a rating just over 100.
I expect that our OL play will be much improved, and that RT will be on the same page with his receivers, that the schemes and play calls from Gase will be much better than in previous seasons, and that the general functionality of the passing offense will go up a notch. I also expect the running game to be hit and miss, and for the defense to cause problems, forcing the team to pass the ball as much or more than the last few seasons. I think its very likely that RT finishes in the top 5 for most stats.HULKFish likes this. -
I say he misses the playoffs and we're shopping for a new qb in about 9 months' time.
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Just fitting a line to Tannehill's historical data (which might not be accurate of course) you get this prediction:
Cmp = 418
Att = 639
Yds = 4584
Tds = 32
Int = 12
Y/A = 7.2
Passer rating = 95
Possibly a bit high on some things, but passer rating seems reasonable.dolphin25 likes this. -
Instead of putting up a projection where you can be held to account if you're wrong you put up a heads I win tails you lose argument.
This is what I have come to expect from you from various threads we have been involved in during the offseason.Fin D likes this. -
I've never judged him by anything other than what I see every Sunday. You won't find me saying "Ryan sucks" "He is why we are a bad team"...I however will say that he needs to improve in some areas and start being more apart of the solution.
Granted I'm sure you would prefer an all out assault on his surroundings acting as if he is some victim. But I don't do garbage like that.
It's the same guys blaming his surrounding for being average that blame the invention of the cheeseburger for them being fat.
No accountability, as sports fans or as men.
So I'll ask again, what type of "projection" do you want from me? Do you want me to make all these blanket stat comparisons? No thanks....I'll feel much better with 3500 yards on 450 attempts than 4500 yards on 575 attempts.
Of course I'm not sure too many understand what I'm getting at.
This isn't fantasy football.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalkdolphin25 likes this. -
I predict he starts 16 games, even if Albert gets hurt and Tunsil is suddenly kicked outside with Dallas at LG, Steen at C.
If most everyone stays healthy I think 4500/32 TD is expected.
number21 likes this. -
It can be simple as saying something like "I don't think he'll improve on 2015'.
All what the OP is asking for is some form of projection on what you think will happen. Now if that isn't something that floats your boat why even bother commenting on this thread at all?
Judgements are post hoc. There is precisely zero judgements being made here. Noone is asking you to judge Tannehill's 2016 season before it happens. But if you are going to say "I will judge Tannehills season to be a success if ..." then you should put up some criteria other than "I will subjectively decide whether I am right or wrong".Piston Honda and Fin D like this. -
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You are the one who began directly challenging me to make some sort of ridiculous projection of his "statistics" of all things....and dismissing my previous post because you want some sort of a statistical measuring stick.
Matt Stafford has thrown for a lot more yards than QBs who are better than him, so to me? These inflated modern day passing stats mean very little on projecting if our QB has improved.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalkdolphin25 likes this. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Unlucky 13, number21, Piston Honda and 1 other person like this. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
4000 - 4400 Yds
27 - 30 Tds
10 - 12 Ints
300 give or take for running yards and 3 Tds.
3 4th Qtr game winning drives!
10-6 Record and a Wild Card birth
He's getting better QB coaching then he has... Ever. He will match his athleticism with thinking like a QB now.Pauly likes this. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Guidelines.
1) personal kind of stats only, ones that Tannehill has significant indivicual control over. Not team W/L records which will depend on the running game and D to a significant degree.
2) Some explanation for why you project the outcome.
3) Assume Tannehill stays healthy and won't be seriously affected by injury.
He clearly says STATSUnlucky 13, Fin D and number21 like this. -
Hes got an offensive line that can block and upgraded weapons.
I expect 4500 yards, 35 TD's/10 INT'/7 rushing TD's. But most of all on top of that i expect playoffs. He can have those stats but if i dont see playoffs then he hasnt progressed, still a loser that has never won at any level of football. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Brasfin, Unlucky 13, Piston Honda and 4 others like this. -
Ive seen elite quarterbacks go to the afc championship game with less. Might not make sense to you but history is there to educate you
dolphin25 likes this. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
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So if the defense gives up 40 points a game and he leads us to 38 points a game, and misses the playoffs, HE is the loser??
Stop watching the sport.danmarino, Unlucky 13 and Fin D like this. -
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No. You haven't. Name one. They either had an elite defense or an elite O line and WRs.
He has had neither.
Stop your hate.Fin D likes this. -
Would be almost unheard of for a QB to have such a stat line and his team misses the playoffs
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I'm not a big fan of this. Nor some of the comments in here already.
However, I'd say he should be capable of 4000-4500 yards, approx. 30td's. approx. 12-15 INT's, probably a couple of fumbles lost, that number depends solely on how much Dallas Thomas plays, if at all. Of course all this depends on way too many things. Some have said we have an OL that can pass block now... uh... I'm not sure we're really in a position to make that determination yet based on them playing a few series' against 1's so far. Lets wait and see how that OL performs this week. Once the real bullets start flying, I think we'll all be in a better position to make judgments then.
I know that being hung up on the QB's stat's is the "cool" thing to do, but really, I think we should be more focused on our defense. The back end, and LB's specifically. I think Vance Joseph is a good coach, but you can only do so much with so little. The performance on the defense will have a pretty big impact on QB/offensive stats for us IMO. If they can't get us off the field that reduces opportunities, puts us in less than ideal situations, and that will have an effect on all these numbers.Pauly likes this. -
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vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
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I exaggerated the numbers for effect. -
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OK, I'll bite. Last year he passed for 4200 yards and there was no room for our offense to play because the defenses sucked. Opponents ran for 2,000 yards and we ran for 1500. Lets assume we are more balanced and run for 2000 yards as a team, I still think RT can surpass his yardage from last year, just by being in a better offense:
I think he completes 68% with 4800 yards, that's 37 extra yards a game, very do-able. We averaged 19 points a game, and I project about 25. So that is a full TD, and lets split that rushing and passing. so an additional 8 td's from him or 32
so 4800 yards
68% completion
32 TD's
12 INT's seems rightPauly and Shane Falco like this. -
Pauly likes this.
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