As an adjunct to the "we would have won this year without Brandon Marshall" thread, consider these facts:
#5 in red zone scoring attempts per game:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scores-per-game
#1 in the NFL in third down conversion percentage:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
#4 in the NFL in 4th down conversions:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
#5 in red zone scores per game:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scores-per-game
#2 in Red Zone scoring percentage:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
#14 in sacks allowed perecntage, a high number but a +5 increase over 2008:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/qb-sacked-pct
#2 in Rushing TD's per game:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-touchdowns-per-game
#1 in rushing first downs per game:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-downs-per-game
It goes on and on, this is without Brandon Marshall and with Ted Ginn producing 450 yds, now toss BMarsh into that mix and hopefully people can see why I'm stoked for this upcoming season.
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Marshall and a healthy Ronnie Brown is something to be really excited about. And all our guys who seemed to just keep converting third downs (Cam/Bess/Hartline/Louuuuuusaka!) are still here. Just have to hope Starks plays his new position well and the youngsters on defense play good enough, as well as making sure FS play improves from last year. I also thought we would have won in 2010 without an elite receiver, now that we have one what's not to be excited about? If we avoid major injuries and Henne keeps coming along I don't see how our offense doesn't play really well, it's just the defense you hope Nolan, Dansby, and company can turn around.
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Last in scaring people, last in quick strikes, impact big plays....Miami's offense while consistent didnt scare anybody, everything seemed to take too long, and was drawn out.....Only bad things happen when you are always on the field for double digit play drives...hopefully that changes....
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The only difference will be, as many here think, big play capability (which means strike/scoring)...
We hope to be off the bottom of that ranking, and we will know 4 games into the season... -
Those are amazing numbers...Can't wait for our #1 scoring offense next year with Henne accumulating 300+ yards per game.
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OT: One can only hope the defense 180s from last year, and there's a thread about it like this one.
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Stats, schmats...While it is comforting to know our offense is no longer helpless. 7-9 was the bottom line. Tony needs to coach his a$# off this year to keep his job, and there's a ton of questionmarks on defense. There's definitely a whole new level of urgency this year.
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The average age on defense is probably around 25 yrs old with only YBell over 30y rs old among the starters, and of the remaining starters, only Crowder and Dansby have more than 2 seasons of starting experience.
Some Maxim's from FO:
http://footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics
Anywho, somewhere in Football Outsiders huge database is the statistical fact that more rookies starting on a defense equates to more losses, especially at Cb (iirc) it was something on the order of "for every 2 rookies that start on a defense 1 additional loss will be produced".
If Football Outsiders is right and defense is a inconsistent proposition, this is the year that Mike Nolan catches an uplift from our mid 20's ranked D, and the Offense improves..that would lead to big things this season..:up:gafinfan, PhinsRock, late again and 1 other person like this. -
Now here is Football Outsiders view on a running offense:
"But" a good team that can do those things on Specials has an edge on every opponent they play, the third leg of the stool so to speak. -
That's some really good stuff Pad's!
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I can only harp back to last year's Indy game, did u see the look on the face's of Indy's defense in the 4th quarter, they were beaten.....Miami would construct these life sucking marvelous drives on offense, moving the chains, moving the clock, scoring.......then........Manning would score in like 3 plays......:angry: -
Themole likes this.
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Crappy Defense
Ted Ginn's drop
No one mentions that Dan Carpenter missed a easy FG, if he had made that one, we were in position to kick the game winner.
It all works together FY. -
For once I would LOVE to see a hurry up that goes right down the field to open a game, stick 7 on the board, play stout defense, then start chewing clock up like a ginzo eats sausage....:up: -
If folks stay healthy I dare teams to stack 8-9 in the box and if they don't, well I look for our running game to have many more long gains.finyank13 likes this. -
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^^^ Amen!
And the real key is using your players properly, all of them!
We talk of Ronnie being healthy yet I've only seen him used properly one year and even then he wasn't used right in the begining, in 2007 under Cam. Lord knows though when he was let loose he was headed to the pro bowl til he got hurt and how he was used isn't the reason he was hurt either! And for the record, no, this FO/HC hasn't used him right either for all of his WC glory! -
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Really? A whole other separate "we didn't really need Brandon Marshall" thread? Ok.
Here's are 3 more facts:
7-9
Our team wasn't good enough in 2009.
Brandon Marshall makes us better. -
Offense
Points scored .88
Team passer rating .81
Total yards gained per play .81
Yards gained per pass play .80
Total yards gained .77
1st downs .70
Turnover ratio .69
Pass yards gained .68
3rd down conversion % .64
QB hits allowed (.53)
Sacks allowed (.53)
Time of possession .46
4th down conversion % .25*
Pass attempts .14*
Run attempts .12*
Yards gained per rush play .09*
Offensive penalty yards .04*
Run yards gained .04*
Pass/run ratio .02*
Defense
Points allowed (.68)
Run yards allowed (.58)
Passing yards allowed per pass play (.57)
Total yards allowed (.56)
Total yards allowed per play (.54)
Opponent's passer rating (.47)
1st downs allowed (.45)
Sacks made .41
Run yards allowed per play (.33)
4th down conversions allowed (.30)
Passing yards allowed (.24)
3rd down conversion % allowed (.23)*
Defensive penalty yards .14*
Special Teams
Average kickoff (kicking team) .32
Average net punt yards (kicking team) .27*
Average kickoff return yards allowed .15*
Total penalty yards committed .11*
Average kickoff return yards gained .05*
Field goal % .03*
http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2010/01/2009-nfl-regular-season-wins-and-stats.html
I highlighted the the stats that had a correlation % of 70% or better. I also highlighted turnover ratio and points allowed per game b/c those two stats are usually at 70%. In fact T/O ratio and points allowed are usually more correlated than 1st downs and total yards. Most of the other stats listed in this thread are not particularly predictive when it comes to winning.
Unfortunately, in those categories the Dolphins were out of the top 12 (12 teams make the playoffs) in all but one of those stats. To have a realistic chance to make it to the playoffs and have a chance to make the SB the Dolphins have to improve in those categories. Fortunately, the addition of Marshall and the development of Henne (and the other WRs) should unquestionably have a positive impact 6 of the 8 (points per game, passer rating, yards per play, yards per pass attempt, total yards gained and first downs per game). And IMO those two factors above will also impact the other two stats (turnover ratio and points allowed) as Henne's and the WRs development and Marshall's ability to win jump balls will help the TO ratio and more offensive TDs should put more pressure on the opponents offense and less on our defense.
Points per game = 14th
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game
Team passer rating = 24th
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/average-team-passer-rating
Total yards gained per play = 22nd
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play
Yards per pass attempt = 23rd
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-pass-attempt
Yards per game = 17th
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-game
First downs per game = 8th
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/first-downs-per-game
Turnover ratio= 25th
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/turnover-margin-per-game
Points allowed = 25th
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-gameMonstBlitz likes this. -
Honestly I think Miami needed an improved Henne and a defense that didn't allow a bunch of big plays and they would have been a playoff team last season.
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As a corollary to my post above here are how many teams among the top 12 in each of those categories made the playoffs last year. And how many teams below our ranking made the playoffs.
Points per game = 14th (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 3 ranked below us made the playoffs)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game
Team passer rating = 24th (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 1 ranked below us made the playoffs)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...-passer-rating
Total yards gained per play = 22nd (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 1 ranked below us made the playoffs)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play
Yards per pass attempt = 23rd (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 0 ranked below us made the playoffs)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...r-pass-attempt
Yards per game = 17th (10 out of top 12 in playoffs, 2 ranked below us made the playoffs)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-game
First downs per game = 8th (7 out of top 12 in playoffs, 5 ranked below us made the playoffs)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...downs-per-game
Turnover ratio= 25th (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 0 ranked below us made the playoffs)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...argin-per-game
Points allowed = 25th (8 out of top 12 in playoffs, 0 ranked below us made the playoffs)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...oints-per-game
Other than first downs per game, which is a stat that I don't believe is as highly correlated most years, being among the top 12 in the other categories meant at least a 66% chance of making in the playoffs and most often a 75% chance of making the playoffs. There were 4 playoff teams that were top 12 in all eight categories (Ind, S.D., N.E., Minn.) Cincinnati was the only playoff team to not be among the 12 in at least 2 categories (only points allowed). The NYJ were only among the top 12 in two categories (points allowed and T/O ratio). Baltimore was among the top 12 in only 3 categories (points per game, T/O ratio and points allowed). Every other playoff team was among the top 12 in at least 6 of the 8 categories. There was no single category (among the 8 listed above) that every playoff team was top 12 in. There were three teams that were consistently among the top 12 in the above categories that did not make the playoffs (Pitt, Hou and NYG). All three of those teams had a negative T/O ratio and were out of the top 12 in T/O ratio. It seems to me, not just based on last year but over many years of observation, that having a negative T/O ratio can prevent otherwise very effective teams from making the playoffs (bold statement, I know, LOL). Also we shouldn't forget the luck factor. My completely WAG (wild-*** guess) is that luck is about 20%-25% of the game. Bounces of an oblong ball, injuries and referee calls probably account for most of that, with slips, trips and drops accounting for most of the rest.
My feeling is that if you want to be a realistic SB threat you need to be pretty good in most of the categories above, not have a negative T/O ratio and have a bit of luck.padre31 likes this.