I was looking over the AFC East schedules today and started picking games. What surprised me was that I had Miami and New England each with the same record. So I looked at the division and I saw that I had them tied there as well. So I looked at the AFC games and I saw that they were again close with Miami getting the nod by a single game.

What surprised me was just how close it was so I started wondering, where are the critical games? Could an early AFC matchup determine home-field advantage in the Play-offs—or even who gets a bye?

So here’s a look at the AFC East in 2015 going week-by-week:

Week-1: PIT @ NE

With no Tom Brady and a depleted NE secondary, this should be an obvious win for the Steelers, but with the game being in NE and Belichick being able to prepare the defense, it’s no guarantee, we know that.

Week-2: NE @ BUF

If NE will ever lose a divisional game, this has to be it! Here’s one of the best D-lines in football blitzing an inexperienced NE QB and Sammy Watkins going up against a not-so-impressive NE secondary. Plus it’s all going down in BUF. C’mon B, we need you to win this one!

Week-3: BUF @ MIA

Having to battle Tommy Boy in NE in week-8 on a Thursday night, it’s doubtful Miami goes 6-0 in the division. 5-1 appears to be the best scenario. That being the case, this could be as close to a must-win as you can get in week 3. If Miami loses here, they will be hard pressed to equal NE’s divisional record. Lose and Miami probably maxes out at 4-2 in the division, if that. Ugh. This is stress.

Week-4: NYG @ BUF & NYJ @ MIA (London)

Here’s a very win-able divisional game happening in MIA with the Dolphins heading into the bye. MIA’s got to handle their business here against a lesser opponent. Meanwhile, BUF plays a very lose-able game against a good QB in Eli. MIA should be at least a game out in front of BUF at this point.

Week-5: NE @ DAL

While MIA and the NYJ are on a bye, NE will be the game of the week. Here are two of football’s top teams. This is Brady’s triumphant return from his suspension, too. Imagine the hype! There’s a real good chance Dallas wins and we might see NE with…gasp… a losing record after 5 games!

Week-6: NE @ INDY

Another game of the week right here—Brady versus Luck. Dude…this could be serious stuff if the Pats fell to 2-4 or 1-5 but I doubt they do. NE will be ready to destroy someone. I’m predicting…5 TDs for Jonas Gray…no, 6!

Week-7: HOU @ MIA

And just as NE is imploding, we get this. Yeah, we all know the deal. This is a major AFC game though so no moping around. There’s no writing off an AFC loss no matter how traditional it seems. Lose a game like this and you’re making it real hard on yourself to win the division.

Week-8: MIA @ NE

I don’t see a win, I’ll be honest. A Thursday Night Football match-up on the road against an elite QB? Oh, and BUF is on a bye and the NYJ are facing OAK…I suggest you hit the links Sunday afternoon. Nothing to see here folks. Do some praying/drinking on Thursday and forget about football for about 10 days after that. Thanks NFL Network.

Week-9: BUF @ MIA

Here’s a big game for MIA as they return home. Not much to say. MIA just has to show up and win. NE is going to beat the Redskins, I can tell you that.

Week-10: PHI @ MIA & NYG @ NE

These are NFC games so there’s not much at stake but both MIA and NE can take a step forward if the other team loses. Handle yer bidness, boyz.

Week-11: DAL @ MIA & BUF @ NE

Here’s a tough game for us and a big divisional match-up to monitor. I’m picking Dallas and NE here. I know, I’m sorry.

Week-12: NE @ DEN & MIA @ NYJ

Ok, so the roles are reversed. NE has the tough match-up against a good QB while MIA has a big divisional game in which they’ll be favored. Sweet.

Week-13: BAL @ MIA

Finally, we can settle the debate! Who’s better, Tannehill or Flacco? I’m predicting the server crashes from the first even 1,000-page thread. For real though, this begins a long December. Here’s a game that will surely help decide some big things: play-offs, division winner, home-field advantage, etc.

Week-14: NYG @ MIA

It’s lose-able but it’s lose-able. Yeah, it’s a tough game, but it’s the only game of the last 6 that isn’t an AFC opponent.

Week-15: MIA @ SD

There’s nothing easy about traveling across country and facing a good QB. I don’t care how well MIA matches up. It’s on MIA to go in and not fall flat. That’s not easy. Here are two good AFC teams with similar records battling it out.

Week-16: IND @ MIA & DAL @ BUF

It doesn’t get much tougher than facing an elite QB and a high-powered offense late in the year. If Miami wins here, the league takes note. Knock off a team many are going to rightly favor as the most likely AFC Champions late in the year and you’ll have done something.

Week-17: NE @ MIA & NYJ @ BUF

Here are two big divisional games. MIA will probably need to win to get or stay ahead of NE who may be on a winning streak that’s as long as 9-10 games (no kidding) and BUF may be fighting for a Play-off spot or division crown as well (probably not the division).

 

That's exactly what I meant by "we all know the deal."

Nothing needs to be said...the Texans are a team that we should beat this year. We're going to have a good record and by even conservative estimates, I'd say Miami should be at least 1 game ahead over every other AFC East team. It's hard for me to believe NE or Buffalo will start as strongly as Miami given the challenges and the opponents they face.

So yeah, going into week 7, Miami will be #1 in the AFC East and so it's a great opportunity to lay an egg and spoil all of the momentum and progress.

That is certainly one of the games that Miami needs to find a way to win. I'm not sure that winning is as imperative as not losing if that makes any sense. That game will have implications that go beyond just the W/L record I believe.

 

Good catch!

Another very critical game for the Dolphins.