You're right. He's the first:

 

He was a likely cut imo..

 

Darn, that can't bode well for Wilson's future with the team.

 

I can't say I blame them. I want to see the Dolphins in action as much as the next person, but COVID-19 is something that should be taken seriously.

 

Unless they live with a sick relative, it really shouldn't.

They're professional athletes in peak physical condition.

 

And that's a reason not to take a seriously because...?

 

Exhaulted has a valid point. There has been so much back and forth on the coronavirus that people are filled with sensationalism and misguided fear.

These are professional athletes. They are in peak physical condition. They aren’t elderly. They don’t have heart conditions. They don’t have any immune difficiency issues. Their own individual risk is quite low and when I say low risk, I’m not speaking of contraction, I’m speaking of long term health issues.

My stepson and his wife live in New York and both contracted coronavirus. Now physically there’s nothing special about these two. If nothing else you could say they’re both a little on the heavy side. No hospital visit, no nothing, they just got sicker than dogs and wished they were going to die but it was nothing more than a really strong flu that knocked them on their butts for 3 weeks.

Now granted they have no other in home family members with susceptible pre-existing conditions but the point is they’re just fine and they aren’t professional athletes in peak physical condition.

If a player wishes to opt out of the season, to each his own but before doing so, I only wish they would make an informed decision and not a media laced panic one

 

Because a healthy 20-35 year old male athlete literally has a 0.000000002% chance of dying from Covid.

 

I would like to see that study.

Also, there are more things that happen with COVID-19 than death.

Plus a lot of them have families.

 

Yeah I don't know whose napkin math you're re-posting but it's wrong and irresponsible, whatever it's supposed to be.

Best information we have is case fatality rate- what % of people who have tested positive have died. That's pretty consistently somewhere between 0.2 to 0.3% in that age range, which translates to your odds of dying if infected being somewhere between 1 in 300 to 1 in 500. Now there's certainly some % of infections that are not being tested, but we have no real way of knowing how many or what % that is. Regardless, if the NFL protocols fail to protect players from infection it's certainly not a one in a million chance or whatever we will have a death or deaths among players, not to mention coaches or support staff.

I'm assuming what you posted there is the % of a population who has died of covid to this point, which is not your chance of dying from Covid or really even at all useful without more context.

 

From the CDC itself...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

 

It isn't even close to that high if you're looking at death rates of those under 60 with no co-morbidities.

Basically, if you're elderly WITH significant underlying health issues, you're at risk. If you're not elderly, and don't have underlying issues, you're not really at risk of dying. You'll feel like crap, then you'll get better, the majority of the time without even ever going to the hospital.

 

Weighted by population ages 0-24 and 25-34 are higher than average for Non-Hispanic Blacks.

it doesn't have a breakdown with athletes.

 

Even without going to the hospital people who don't even have symptoms are showing lung damage, heart damage, and blood clotting issues.

It is not fearmongering to say that there are risks even to younger very athletic people.

Death isn't the only risk involved.

 

How are we testing this stuff is they weren't in the hospital? If they went in to get this stuff looked at, then they just have had symptoms to prompt going in?

Regardless, what is the percent? We're all acting like we don't live everyday making decisions that have potentially catastrophic consequences. We drive cars, and we have high probabilities of being involved in accidents, and dying or having life altering injuries.

We all made fun of Madden for not wanting to fly.

 

In other countries, they are testing people who do not have symptoms and then giving them examinations to see the damage. They are finding lung damage in people who had little to no symptoms.

We know all the dangers of cars. Also getting in a car wreck by yourself doesn't have the potential to kill someone in your family if you are not hurt in anyway.

We are not acting like we don't live everyday making decisions that have potentially catastrophic consequences. We are all reacting to a current situation with the information that we have. We are all doing our best with that.

All aspects of driving we know the risks and consequences. With this current disease, there are a lot of unknowns. I don't disparage anyone who wants more to be known before making a tough decision about going back into public, especially if they don't have to.

 

What I listed specifically was for people in the age range of NFL players.

If you're going to turn around and claim it's all for people with pre-existing conditions in that age range I guess you can certainly do that, but I don't think there's really any evidence to what extent that's true, or it's a non-issue for a sport where obesity is essentially a pre-requisite for many of the players.

 

Let's assume that the percentage you provided was accurate.

If I poured you a drink and told you there was a 0.000000002% chance that it could give you severe health problems or even kill you, would you take a sip?

 

There's another angle to this which might render the actual odds irrelevant.

Whatever the real odds or risks of getting COVID19 and suffering serious ill effects from it, one might ask whether avoiding the NFL season actually mitigates that risk. In other words, does not playing actually make it less likely you'll avoid it?

It might, in which case there's an argument to be made for avoiding the season. If players just end up living the high life or hanging out normally then the chances are probably just as good, if not worse, that they'll catch it that way.

You're more likely to get a hand in your face playing football, which you can avoid otherwise, and get breathed on up close. Depending upon how you behave elsewhere, though, the odds could still be similar.

The NFL are, at least, monitoring and running tests, so that might serve to make it a safer environment than most.

If it were me, if I didn't have vulnerable family, I'd be playing. It's a new sickness that carries some risk but it can't be avoided completely, I'd rather take that risk and get on with my life, using wisdom in mitigating the risk by washing my hands etc. But that's me.

 

That's probably true for every drink you take right?

 

Do you have to go to the hospital to get lung damage, heart damage and blood clotting issues?

Actually lung damage and heart damage is commonly undiagnosed until it results in a visit to the doctor and a diagnoses or you just drop dead!

When I joined the Marine Corps, back in 1965 I was 19 years old and had to take a physical to get in the service. When I took the physical I failed it because I had a heart murmur and congenitally "weak feet". When I heard "heart murmur" I turned white. The doctor said don't worry, its common in young men and they usually out grow it. It did change my medical rating from 2A to 4Y. I was still able to enlist.

I had never heard the term 4Y before and it wasn't until 1966 while I was stationed at MCRD, San Diego that I saw that particular medical classification mentioned in a news release in a daily San Diego paper.

Apparently San Diego County didn't have enough men with a 2A classification to fill their draft quota, so they were beginning to draft 4Y's. Surfers were getting out of the draft because they had "surfer knobs" on the bridge of their feet and it would interfere with wearing boots and getting that kind of classification.

I never thought there would be a situation come up where my medical rating from the service would be a meaningful topic for discussion.

What does that tell you about the effects of this "pandemic"?

What does it say about the NFL preseason so far?

 

Not drinking but here are the chances of lightning strike fatality a couple of decades ago - way more probable:

 

It has the potential of killing someone you don't know, which is like why they say we should wear masks in public.

 

Yeah, for most age groups you have a better chance at being hit by lightning than dying from covid-19.

 

Don't get me wrong though - wash your hands, practise excellent hygiene, and wear masks while it's prevalent, especially if you're ill, and around people.

If they can do that in the NFL, then play.

In fact, can they wear some sort of mask while playing?

 

That is not closely true.

Death by age group in California alone just this year only under 5 and 5-17 is under 8 deaths.

Deaths if 18-34 is 144, which is way bigger than 8.

 

Yes, but the potential generally stops with the person who died in the wreck. It doesn't spread. One reason why comparing to driving a car isn't very helpful.

Sars-COV-2 is much more dangerous than driving a car. Well right now. Hopefully our awesome Western Medicine can get it down to a flu type situation in the next year.

Not sarcasm, Western Medicine though has a lot of issues #$##ing rocks! I love not to lose a leg because I got an infection.

 

And what is the number of 18-34 year olds in California? You have to look at the total number in that age group, not simply look at the number of deaths.

Also, we aren't looking at age groups for lighting deaths (lightning strikes would be more appropriate). Lightning strike isn't anything to do with age or underlying conditions. So you would look at your chance in the she group you're in, as compared to your chances of being struck by lightning when you're out and about. If you're comparing your likelihood of dying from covid, to your chances of being hit by lightning, it's probably more likely that you'll be hit by lightning.

 

It all depends. For instance, in NH, a child is more likely to die in a car accident on their way to school than to die from covid. So it's not as cute and dried as people want to make it.

 

I know it hasn't increased by a factor of 18x since 2003.

We are looking at overall deaths over a 4 year period. For all age groups.

You are much more likely to die of COVID-19 than a random lightning strike.

 

We are not talking about children.

I don't think people are trying to make it as cut and dry.

 

There is approximately 11 million people aged 18-34 in California. 144 deaths is .000013 of that age group.

 

Well, for a child covid-19 is not as dangerous as riding in a car.

 

well, we don't know the long term ramifications of COVID-19 for children, so that is unknown.

 

Yes, and the lightning strike statistics are over 13 years, which is less than 1 person a year.

Looking at the census data the amount of people 18-34 is roughly 9 to 10 million.

Which even if all 8 died were in that demographic and all happen to be in 2000 and using the lower 9 million a lightning strike would be 0.00000088%. With the average per year it is it only goes down to 0.00000068%

which is still much lower.

 

The lightning thing is an apples to oranges comparison, and not even a very good one.

Your chances of dying from Covid-19 if you're infected are much greater than your chances of dying in a lightning strike. Your chances of being infected with Covid-19 and dying are an unknown, because stuff like prevalence, exposure risk over a given length of time, etc. and so on are huge question marks and wildly variable.

In a football context, if you've got a high potential risk of exposing a bunch of people at once(and again, no one seems to give a **** about the coaches or whatever), you've most certainly got a higher risk factor of dying from that than lightning.

 

The fact that we're quibbling over hundred thousandths of 1% is pretty telling, isn't?