Great post.

 

I agree with a good portion of your post Sceeto but I am puzzled about one thing. With all of the front office mismanagement in player acquisition, how is THAT Tua's fault? Tua's a player, not the GM.

I do agree that Tua was A reason the Dolphins lost against the Packers, but not THE reason. Waddle and Hill were double teamed all night long, taking away the long ball, hence Smith getting so many catches. As for pocket presence? I would agree with you...if there was a pocket for him to work from. Our offensive line is a joke...it's always been a joke and until things change in the front office, it will continue to be a joke. They couldn't pass block, they couldn't run block and Armstead had one of his worst games as a pro. I'm surprised Tua wasn't sacked more than he was.

So while I agree with you 1000% on the organization's woes due to the poor management of the team by Grier, I can't agree with you that Thanksgiving Day's loss was TUA's fault.

 

I don't know man. I personally think that if you can't run the ball successfully, your deep ball won't be there. I think when the opposing team runs the ball down your throat...You're essentially screwed. We couldn't run the ball, in that case it doesn't open play action. It's a collective effort in my opinion.

 

I think our running attack is at 2.9 ypc since Jackson went down, pretty pedestrian…

 

But...IF your Oline isn't getting it done, the offense is going to suffer. I don't know any quarterback that's going to put up elite stats and win super bowls that has suspect offensive line play. If you want to suggest that the THill addition was unnecessary, go right ahead. He appears to have lost a step. His speed was always his main attribute. He's not a possession or between the tackles receiver. I get that you're trying to pile all of this on Tua. I disagree with you that it's ALL Tua (as your faithfully suggesting). Have fun with your thread. I don't feel like playing "the game" today.

 

This is just my take on the “dumping so many resources” (I’m not being disrespectful)…

The resources the team has is all GRIER, not what the team needs so to speak. Is is AWESOME to have both the Cheetah AND the Penguin? ABSOLUTELY, but this is Grier’s philosophy in building a team. Grier goes after weapons. We have a good quarterback in Tua. I know there are those who disagree but he is damned good. We have an incredible running back room. They are electrifying when the break free. We have a phenomenal receiver corps headline with the two aforementioned. This is GRIER, but he places little to NO VALUE on the offensive line. It’s an inconvenient afterthought to him and that is why we struggle offensively.

If we had only one of our receivers, one of our running backs and Green Bay’s offensive line? Shoot, forget about it! Love has been upright all season long, one of the fewest sacked quarterbacks and Josh Jacob’s is dueling it for the rushing title this season.

But sadly until Grier is gone and the offensive line become priority #1, our team is going to be what it is offensively.

 

I'd be interested to see more on that. Cbrad and I have our disagreements, but he's shown unequivocally that running isn't important to the play action pass, so I'd be interested in seeing if stats back that up.

Running the ball is important though.

 

Yes exactly, I mean, this is what we've been talking about for a couple years. You draft a guy high, you have 3-5 years to win. You can buy lots of pieces to put around a cheap QB, but once that rookie contract is up, and you've got to pay that guy, other positions have to suffer.

 

Saying Tua is responsible, does not absolve others of their responsibility. He's just saying, Tua is not blameless. Now, Tua can't control a team giving him a contract, so while it's not Tua's fault per se, it's still a result of him being on the team.

I don't think he's saying that it's all Tua's fault, as others also have fault, but I could be wrong.

 

Is there any other team in the NFL that has the weapons we do? Hill, Waddle, Smith, Achane? I think every NFL team would take that.

 

I think we could run the ball if we spread the line a little bit more. Watched Denver game goal to goal. First 2 plays they bunched everyone up and ran it getting stuffed. 3rd down they spread the offense out more and ran it in for a TD. I'd like to see us do that on running plays, and god forbid maybe a play action to the TE

 

except on defense we have no good linebackers and our safeties are suspect at best.

 

Yeah the best single statistic on the effect of rushing efficiency to play action efficiency is EPA rushing vs. EPA play action. Those are in the same units (difference in expected points before and after the play) and the correlation is 0.11, so 0.11^2 = 1.2% of variation in EPA rushing explains variation in EPA play action, i.e., nearly no effect. That's a well known result in the statistical analysis of football.

The limitation to this stat is that it only applies over the range of rushing attempts and play action attempts you typically see in the NFL. So the claim that running the ball is important rests on not inferring anything outside the typical range of rushing attempts. At some point, if one were to do the experiment, too few rushing attempts would probably have a serious effect on play action efficiency. But over the typical range of rushing attempts it doesn't.

 

This is where Grier is an idiot. If he was a GM worth a damn, he would have tried to get what McDaniel wanted but should have also been something like, “Ok, we’ll see if we can’t get you this, that or the other, but we have to get the OL bolstered to protect Tua”.

Hell, I’ll go back pre-McDaniel. Tua was drafted in 2020, two years before McDaniel. If you draft a QB that high in the draft, you KNOW (or SHOULD) you better draft and/or sign OLmen to protect your investment and Grier utterly failed. Now here we are during McDaniel’s 3rd season as head coach about the OL…AGAIN!!

Grier has GOT TO GO!!!! And DO NOT promote from within. Bring in someone from the outside, someone from a winning organization, with fresh eyes. I like McDaniel and do feel his offense, with the RIGHT pieces can and will be deadly but if a new GM doesn’t believe so, then so be it.

But so long as Grier is here…sighs

 

No, you’re right. He’s not saying that at all. Sceeto and I, even though we may have our disagreements knows the common denominator of our team’s woes is Grier.

There is plenty of blame to go around but to point the finger at any ONE player is nonsensical when Grier has been the one assembling this group of players.

 

There are things seriously wrong with this team

our run game has disappeared, worst in football over a long period of time

Griers record is done , it’s over, we can go over all the misses and hits if we want, I’ve done it, he’s done here

McDaniel’s philosophies in coaching, motivating and practice strategies are failing in his third year

we have one of the oldest teams in football

We have two elite players in Ramsey and Hill. About 60 mill total per year

if the team doesn’t win out then I’m ready to move on from the whole operation because it all cannot be trusted

 

Do you think that translates similarly for other passes? Does a good run game make regular passes better?

I've would assume it does have a positive effect on regular passing plays, as a good run game prevents the defense from making you one dimensional, and generally defenses play better when they know the pass is coming.

 

Yeah, he didn't simply say "well guys...Tua has his issues, but we're a team and it takes a team effort either way." No...He made a thread insisting that we've put too many resources into making our quarterback comfortable which I just don't agree with. If I personally was trying to accommodate Tua, I would have built, built, and built that Fking offensive line until it was simply a concrete wall that could protect him. You know what though? All of us on here would be bashing me for not getting him a quality receiver to throw to. I do think Grier put the cart before the horse. We had Waddle...It probably should have ended there and the offensive line should have continued to be the priority. At least that's how I see it. In other words...No Chop Robinson in this draft either. It would have been OLine again because we stupidly let Robert Hunt go. Grier didn't sour on me until this past off-season.
I believe in Tua as long as he can stay upright and healthy. I believe that if he can kill the concussions, he'll continue to ascend in this league. Quarterbacks have an incredibly long shelf life. If the plan was to accommodate him and play to his strengths then an elite O line should have been the goal. A good quarterback (which I believe he is) can make stars out of receivers that are otherwise no names on rosters that have bad quarterbacks. We see it every year. A good quarterback gets a receiver paid on a new team and that new team he's on has Anthony Richardson at the helm. Like I said, we had Waddle, I don't regret Hill coming here, but in hindsight it would have been one or the other.

 

It's similar. Correlation between rushing Y/C and passing Y/A is 0.16, so only slightly higher than the 0.11 for play action passes. Rushing efficiency has a very small (but positive) effect on passing efficiency.

I think what this is really saying is that it's the rushing attempts that matter more than rushing efficiency. As long as you have a minimum number of rushing attempts you're not 1 dimensional even if your rushing efficiency is low.

As to why rushing efficiency (instead of attempts) has such low correlation with passing efficiency, my guess is defenses can't just trade off one for the other that easily. What might seem easy in theory is probably not in practice.

 

While I’m like you when it comes to Grier, being done with him, I’m not done with McDaniel, at least not yet.

I look at tenured head coaches such as Harbaugh, Tomlin, Reid et al, they’ve all had winning seasons and losing seasons. This will more than likely be a losing season for McDaniel, but his first 2 have been winning playoff seasons. A little rain must fall from time to time but if next season is a repeat of this season, then I would be inclined to take a hard look at what and why.

But Grier has got to go.

 

Maybe...but I feel like the team is degrading since Year 1, not improving. I know many feel like McDaniel has kinda been figured out, which is a reason for some of the offensive struggles.

I'm not as against McDaniel as I am Grier, but I do think McDaniel needs to go. I believe he is too buddy buddy with the team.

 

I just don’t see that Res. Even in year one of the McDaniel regime with Tua going down with his concussion, our offense improved by leaps and bounds. We hadn’t seen an offense like that since the days of Marino and Shula and it continued into year 2 of McDaniel’s tenure. I just don’t see the side of those who say the team hasn’t improved.

Is there room for improvement? Absolutely, no team is perfect without the need for improvement. We’re still trying to get the defensive code cracked since Flores’ departure, which WAS our strong suit.

This season has been a bit of an enigma. First losing Tua with another concussion and the inability of the team to consistently played complimentary football. Seems like one week the defense is on fire and the offense is frigid, the next week it’s the opposite.

With what I see though as a significant improvement with the team overall, I just can’t instantly cut sling load on McDaniel because he’s has a BAD year.

 

Right, my fear is they fire McDaniel and he goes somewhere else and does very well after learning from his mistakes here. I'd keep coach for sure and hope he continues to learn.

 

I believe the DC is a good one. Problem is the talent level is pretty bad at this point. Linebackers are terrible. Safeties are garbage. DB's not much depth there. All of that is on Greer.

 

Well, my issues with McDaniel are:

1. Too soft on players, proof for me is how undisciplined they seem to be, and they play soft. This is correctable.
2. Bad clock management and studied suspect play calling. Correctable on several ways, but easiest is too just let your OC call plays.
3. May have been figured out, and good teams possess the players to stop us.

1 and 2 are not really a huge deal, but 3 is. My issue with the offense is that they are not consistent, other than consistently seeming to disappear in big games against good opponents.

The main reason I talk about McDaniel going, is TBH, I'm really not interested in doing the whole replace the GM, but not the coach, as I don't think that has worked for us. At all. I think if Grier is replaced, McDaniel probably should go also, let the GM pick his coach.

 

My problem is what I saw in 11 practices and one preseason game in training camp and reported it, and I believe the results we’ve seen this year is directly related to it

not even counting former coaches, current players and former players have corroborated my findings

lose to the jets and your done on Monday

 

I agree, to me McDaniel seems like a very good OC, but not a good HC. Being a great HC requires a lot more than just being a great offensive mind.

Some guys are just not cut out to be a HC even though they are great coordinators, Mcdaniels is one of them.