I just found this too strange not to share. How often do opposing QB's talk up their opponents two days before playing them? Isn't that the coach's job?
It's good to see he's a little nervous though...and it also seemed like a good opportunity to play "name that caption".
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Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member
http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/j...nfs.com/en_us/Sports/ap/201510271206435745916
"That Ryan, he's kinda hot right now ya know, and he's got those long arms..."KeyFin likes this. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
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dolfan7171, Alex13, Rocky Raccoon and 8 others like this.
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Epic.dolfan7171, Tin Indian, Rocky Raccoon and 6 others like this. -
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[video=youtube;5ePVcZvt7Ew]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ePVcZvt7Ew[/video] -
This is what every Pats presser is like, they always give the other team a lot of credit, same old, same old.
PhinFan1968, dolfan7171, Tin Indian and 1 other person like this. -
I was expecting something like "Tannehill is playing great. He is very accurate, somethingdolfan7171 likes this. -
Rev with possibly the greatest post in TP history. Out of no where with it too.
RevRick and Tin Indian like this. -
Brady isn't nervous. Neither is Belichick. They're one of the greatest dynasties in sports history. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'm looking forward to a game that I believe will be competitive, though.
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I took it as Brady calling out his receivers, who had a few drops against the jets.
Re-read the quotes:
YMMV.KeyFin likes this. -
It's standard pats talk. On the other hand, how many people here think the Rev is currently dressed like Dr. Frank N. Furter?
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Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member
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Why is everything with Brady a mind game of some sort? I mean can't he say what is really on his mind? It is the same thing every year. Especially when we come into town.
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Pressure Brady with a 4 man rush and we have a good chance of winning this game. Offense needs to continue to make big plays in the running game.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
We have 6 fumbles, 2 lost
Average is about 7 fumbles
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And the whole original point was there was no deviation. I'm just pointing out how silly that crap analysis was from Sharp Analysis.
That idiot included special teams fumbles into the fumble total, even though Special Teams used K balls, and then did not include the special teams plays into the denominator ... grade A idiot and everyone lapped it up like dogs. -
http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...ral/224-the-patriots-have-great-ball-security
Point is, there's a statistical abnormality in NE's low fumbling rate from the 2007 rule change onward if you look at outdoor teams. Oh, and regarding K balls etc.. that alone isn't a good criticism because you're applying that metric to all teams and you can't show that all the difference was with the K balls.Fin D and PhinFan1968 like this. -
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Baltimore, Chicago, Green Bay, Seattle are all up there. NE is tops sure. But they also bench 1,200 yard rushers with average fumble rates like Stevan Ridley. It is not abnormal as you see when you break it down by fumbles per offensive play ran.
The difference between NE's running back fumble rate and the league average is 1.5 -2 fumbles PER YEAR.
The problem is when you don't exclude QB sack/strips, you include a lot of other noise. Russell Wilson drops back what, 400 times a year? yet he has 10 fumbles a year because he's trying to extend the play, he holds on to the ball, and he plays behind a bad oline so his fumble per drop back is huge. Meanwhile Tom Brady and Peyton Manning get rid of the ball the quickest in the league, #1 and #2 over the past few years. They are naturally going to have lower fumble rates, and they do. When you include QB fumbles you are including Oline, protection, scheme, game plan, QB ability to avoid sack, time to throw, all of that.
Outside of funny laterals at the end of games Running backs and Wide Receivers when they have the ball in their hands they're not trying to get rid of it. When you isolate that, NE fumble rates on receptions and runs are not wildly off. They're not even in 1st place with fumbles per reception with two outdoor cold teams in #1 and #2 with Baltimore and NYG. -
Then I found stats that showed the correlation between turnover differential and wins in the NFL and the result was that NE was winning approx. 1 extra game per year statistically speaking due to the abnormally low fumbling rate when compared to the average outdoor NFL team. My memory may not be perfect on the exact steps I took (it was a detailed post long ago), but I do remember the result of ~1 extra win per year, which is a pretty big difference.
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It is not abnormally low. Once you isolate the QB from the RB/WR/TE you see, NE is still tops but not abnormally so with Balt right there. Once you add the QB fumbles back in, then it looks out of whack but you have the best QB in the league there throwing 650 times and fumbling 5 times a year since 2009 (2008 he didn't play). I skipped 2007 because Flacco hasn't been drafted yet, but Flacco from 2008-2014 fumbled 8.7 times a year.
That alone accounts for the difference between NE and Balt fumble rates. Look at how low Baltimore fumbles per reception in that chart. It's wildly below NYG, which is already lower than NE. For WR and RB, baltimore and NE are pretty close combined on runs and receptions.
The difference? Flacco fumbles it 8.7 times a year, Brady 5 times a year. But Brady is throwing 50 more passes per year than Flacco. The point? The difference between NE fumbling and Balt fumbling is significantly different because of QB fumble rates.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
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The question here is did the 2007 rule change cause a statistically speaking abnormal decrease in the fumbling rate for any team? It seems to have done so for NE more than for any other team. Obviously we can't directly evaluate causality (per the rule change), but the pre-2007 vs. 2007-onwards fumbling rates can be analyzed and NE does top the list of average fumbling rate differentials between those two time periods if I remember correctly.
In this latest post, you're trying to look at where the difference in fumbling rates between two teams (Baltimore vs. NE) during 2008-2014 comes from. I like the road you're going down (analysis-wise), but that's really a separate issue than the one I was responding to (whether the 2007 rule change helped). -
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