Comparing the Dolphins Starting WRs to the League's Best

Quality work, Fineas. I only wonder how this offense would have been perceived had Edmund (Edmond?) Gates had developed.

You said it in your original post, its the lack of big plays ...touchdowns that make the group weak. We don't break quick short passes for TDs, we don't have big yardage TDs or redzone TDs from our WRs. They are a weak link on our team no doubt. It limits our playcalling, our redzone offense and our scoring options. Moving the ball is obviously nice but we need someone that can simply overwhelm a defense now and then and get us points. A lot of teams defenses will take a ton of yards and field goals as long as they aren't giving up TDs its a good trade. No WR on our team scares anyone, no team's coaching staff or defense stays up at night worrying about our WR group. It needs another big target and a good TE IMO.

"phinsational wrote:

What discontent? They're both solid secondary level receivers. Unfortunately, when they're forced into being our top 2 receivers they allow us little to no ability to dictate games to defenses as noted in this recent Miami Herald article:

I think when you have people claiming you have to get rid of either one of Bess or Hartline and draft multiple receivers, that neither of them should ever be better than #3 or #4 players, or when you advocate some of the theories people have about them being successful nearly entirely through defensive neglect, you've got discontent that doesn't really line up with reality.

RoninFin4 wrote:

I don't think the discontent is that rampant...I'm surprised you do, at least based on what I've seen on the boards. I think the gripe with the receiving corps is that while Hartline and Bess are solid starters, there's still "something missing" from the receiving corps. I think Brandon Marshall, minus the BPD and off-field issues, added that missing piece...the quarterback play just didn't measure up.

No, you're right, I agree with all of that.

RoninFin4 wrote:

The fact that the most TDs Hartline or Bess has produced in a season is only 5 (Davone Bess in 2010), and they've only produced a combined total of 18 receiving TDs in a combined almost 8 full seasons (Bess 4 plus this year, and Hartline 3 plus this year) speaks more to a trend than Fineas alluded to. Obviously QB play is a factor, but despite both Hartline and Bess proving they can get deep on occasion, how many times have they really busted a long TD, or taken a quick slant to the house?

I think touchdowns are situational and based on other factors than people tend to allow. Neither Hartline and Bess are great red-zone threats, but I don't think either are particularly bad as they appear, and if you have otherwise good players, you find a way to do it other ways.

I think you've also got to take a critical look at who actually busts long touchdowns with any regularity, and how many players you can realistically expect to have that are capable of that.

RoninFin4 wrote:

I think even you've alluded to adding someone like a Mike Wallace would round out this receiving corps.

I like Mike Wallace a lot, and I think in the right circumstances you pay a lot of money for him, but I don't know if Miami is in that situation.

Miami should go for a generalist in my opinion. Mike Wallace don't fit red zone issues, for example.

"Disgustipate wrote:

I think you've also got to take a critical look at who actually busts long touchdowns with any regularity, and how many players you can realistically expect to have that are capable of that.

Nah, it's better to just rely on theory and personal opinion.

Why do we need to catch passes in the red zone if the run game has been for effective for us? Not trying to prove anyone wrong here, just wondering. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

"Disgustipate wrote:

I think when you have people claiming you have to get rid of either one of Bess or Hartline and draft multiple receivers, that neither of them should ever be better than #3 or #4 players, or when you advocate some of the theories people have about them being successful nearly entirely through defensive neglect, you've got discontent that doesn't really line up with reality.

No, that I agree with you on. IMO they're both valuable receivers in their own right when put into proper perspective, which is--- if they can be used to compliment a full & talented receiving cast rather than serving as the primary 2 targets. I'd put Bess & Hartline on linebackers, safeties, and nickel corners all day long if I could mismatch it that way. Unfortunately, until we have a talented addition at WR to draw #1 corners, we're faced with #1 corners playing Hart & Bess, which doesn't present us with much of a mismatch, nor as much consistency as we would like IMO.

"jboogie wrote:

Why do we need to catch passes in the red zone if the run game has been for effective for us? Not trying to prove anyone wrong here, just wondering. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

It's pretty amusing to see the Dolphins more successful in the red zone than teams who are apparently doing it right.

These threads are all the same. Somebody does the work to show something objectively, and there are a handful or so of people who just won't be convinced by any means, who then create the entire ensuing debate.

Just let those folks continue to believe what they will. It ain't gonna change.

Hell, if a guy in the Middle East can believe he's doing the right thing by strapping a bomb to his body and going into a building a blowing up hundreds of innocent people, well then I suppose people are capable of believing just about whatever they want. Bess and Hartline kinda pale in comparison.

To see the difference between QB's numbers with and without playmakers, take a look at Tom Brady's career statistics.

Without a combination of Moss, Welker, Gronk, or Hernandez, his stats are above average. Not elite. In fact, he's never thrown over 30 td's without them. His numbers are certainly very good. We haven't had a QB throw 20 TD's since Marino, so I'm not going to knock Brady's stats... But by no means are Tom Brady's numbers striking.

Look at his stats with a combination of Moss, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. Pretty ****ing unbelievable. Tops or close to in the league. As long as he's got those guys on the field with him, he's consistantly thrown for more TD's, yards, completion %, fewer INT's, etc...

Playmakers make plays because... Playmakers present mismatches. Playmakers open up options. Playmakers create unpredictability. This is even more true in the current NFL era where passing the football is at a premium.

There is no debate to be had. Guys like Hartline and Bess are very good role players. Even Fasano is pretty decent. I'm sure every team could find a home for them if they became available. But they're not playmakers. They're not even complete players. There are gaping holes in their games that limit their ability to uplift a team or a QB consistently. Our offense will not be dangerous without the addition of playmakers who can stay on the field consistently in all situations.

"jboogie wrote:

Why do we need to catch passes in the red zone if the run game has been for effective for us? Not trying to prove anyone wrong here, just wondering. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

It's a fair question that will go largely ignored on this board. This team has been pretty solid in the red zone when it has gotten there -- as god as top teams like Atlanta and SF. That they end up scoring via the run instead of the pass is fine with me. The problem has been getting those red zone scoring opportunities. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-attempts-per-game. There are several reasons for that.

One is that the Dolphins' average starting field position is 27th in the NFL. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats.

One is that the Dolphins are 7th in the league in most giveaways. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/giveaways-per-game.

One is that the Dolphins are 5th worst in takeaways. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/takeaways-per-game.

Improvement in 3rd down conversions would help. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

"Clark Kent wrote:

To see the difference between QB's numbers with and without playmakers, take a look at Tom Brady's career statistics.

Without a combination of Moss, Welker, Gronk, or Hernandez, his stats are above average. Not elite. In fact, he's never thrown over 30 td's without them. His numbers are certainly very good. We haven't had a QB throw 20 TD's since Marino, so I'm not going to knock Brady's stats... But by no means are Tom Brady's numbers striking.

Look at his stats with a combination of Moss, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. Pretty ****ing unbelievable. Tops or close to in the league. As long as he's got those guys on the field with him, he's consistantly thrown for more TD's, yards, completion %, fewer INT's, etc...

Playmakers make plays because... Playmakers present mismatches. Playmakers open up options. Playmakers create unpredictability. This is even more true in the current NFL era where passing the football is at a premium.

There is no debate to be had. Guys like Hartline and Bess are very good role players. Even Fasano is pretty decent. I'm sure every team could find a home for them if they became available. But they're not playmakers. They're not even complete players. There are gaping holes in their games that limit their ability to uplift a team or a QB consistently. Our offense will not be dangerous without the addition of playmakers who can stay on the field consistently in all situations.

That Brady comment has to be among the most meaningless of all time. Th combination of receivers and TEs you point to cover the entire prime of his career and the significant change the Patriots offense that began in 2007. In truth, what Brady has shown is that he can produce largely those same numbers with any one or two of those guys out of the lineup. When Moss hit the wall, the Pats ditched hm and the offense kept rolling. When Welker has been out, Julian Edelman fills in and the offense keeps rolling. When Hernandez was out, they kept rolling. With Gronk out, they keep rolling.

The "playmakers" you laud didn't seem to make plays when they didn't have the great QB or great offense to enable them to. Welker was no elite playmaker when he was in Miami. Moss was no great playmaker in Oakland or Tennessee or SF.

Every QB who puts up big numbers has receivers that also get big numbers, but that doesn't mean it was because of those receivers. Marino never put up big numbers without some combination of Clayton, Duper or Fryar, but that doesn't mean those guys were responsible for Marino's production. Drew Brees never put up big numbers without some combination of Gates, VJackson, Colston and Graham, but that doesn't mean he would suck without them. Etc.

"Disgustipate wrote:

It's pretty amusing to see the Dolphins more successful in the red zone than teams who are apparently doing it right.

In all fairness, it's nice that we look ok on paper from a redzone efficiency standpoint (ranked 12th), but we both know that alone doesn't correlate to a successful offense, nor tell the whole story.

• Redzone scores per game (TDs): 25th

• Redzone scoring attempts per game: 31st

• Points per play: 24th

A whole lot of stats that simply show a team making due with what it has.
Really that's all the initial post is.

It really says nothing about the skill set of the group or how much of a threat to defenses this group actually is.

The starting WR's on this team are consistent and clutch in making catches.
We knew that without a bunch of regurgitated stats about their catches.
Point is that none of them are dangerous threats that will ever be able to be serious concerns for a defense, stretch the field consistently or demand rolling extra secondary help to them thereby loosening up a defensive secondary.

Its amazing to me that some really will try to argue were solid at all positions.
Don't at all get it. It's mind boggling quite frankly.
To each his own.

Some more stats to back you up:

Bess is 6th in win probability added. Hartline is 29th.

Hartline is 25th in expected points added. Bess is 38th.

Hartline is 22nd in yards per target. Bess is 44th.

They fair better in win probability. With Bess I think that's because he catches so many passes on 3rd down. Individually, I think expected points added and yards per target are better ways to judge their performance/value. While not elite, I think they hold up pretty well for playing with a rookie QB behind a inconsistent offensive line and ****ty running game.

I think they are both good players. Are they complete, elite players? Probably not. Should we look to upgrade the position, particularly with a player that has more straight line speed? Probably. Should we be happy with the value they bring to the team regardless of their issues? I think so. And I think they are fairly far down the list of problems with this team. Plus, I'd like to second Fineas' post. Well stated.

"Fineas wrote:

That Brady comment has to be among the most meaningless of all time. Th combination of receivers and TEs you point to cover the entire prime of his career and the significant change the Patriots offense that began in 2007. In truth, what Brady has shown is that he can produce largely those same numbers with any one or two of those guys out of the lineup. When Moss hit the wall, the Pats ditched hm and the offense kept rolling. When Welker has been out, Julian Edelman fills in and the offense keeps rolling. When Hernandez was out, they kept rolling. With Gronk out, they keep rolling.

Every QB who puts up big numbers has receivers that also get big numbers, but that doesn't mean it was because of those receivers. Marino never put up big numbers without some combination of Clayton, Duper or Fryar, but that doesn't mean those guys were responsible for Marino's production. Drew Brees never put up big numbers without some combination of Gates, VJackson, Colston and Graham, but that doesn't mean he would suck without them. Etc.

Brady and the pats keep on "rolling" because they have a combination of playmakers. When Moss hit the wall, that offense stagnated. They had to re-align the whole thing. Tom Brady was not nearly as effective in 2009. In 2010, NE drafted Gronk (greatest rookie TE season ever, then followed up with greatest TE season ever). Oh and that Hernandez kid, another top 5 TE in the NFL. When Welker gets hurt, it's not the end of the world because there are other playmakers on the team. Hernandez goes down, there are other playmakers. As I said, playmakers present options and create diversity. Thank you for agreeing?

And no, I never said talented QB's would "suck" without their star players. I said there is a difference in production. Take a look at Drew Brees's numbers when before and after Graham's injury... The offense opened up. Suddenly, teams had to play them differently to account for a massive threat. It was harder to contain that offense. Bree's numbers went up, their offensive production went up, and their wins went up.

Are we really going to pretend that playmakers don't alter the game? Even the opposite is true. Look at Larry Fitzgerald. With a talented QB, his production is all-world. With Skelton/Kolb/Leinart, he's not nearly that impressive. He's not nearly the same threat with those guys as he was with Kurt Warner. Great players make each other better and more productive.

Get real. You give Miami a top 5 WR in the NFL and Tannehill's production would improve in every measurable category.

And yes, your argument about Marino holds true, IMO. The guy did more with less talent than anyone in the history of the NFL. As said by a once by a former Miami offensive coordinator, you can't turn chicken **** into chicken salad. Without Danny, Miami has no offense. You're telling me Marino wouldn't of had more success (stats, wins and losses, playoffs) with guys like Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, Moss, Megatron, Graham, Fitz, etc... than with his craptastic WR's/TE's? Guy finished the last decade of career surrounded by mediocrity.

"schmolioot wrote:

Bess and HArtline are targeted so much ebcuase we don't have anybody else.

Our 3rd WR has been 3 differnet guys thus far, none of whom have been effective. And our TE play has been spotty with the exception of Clay's good game last week

So yes, we have nobody else to consistently throw to. Take a look at GB whom I suppose we're suppsoed to be emulating. They threw to starting WRs only 33% of the time. That's because they have 4 good WRs plus good TE's. they have a multitude of weapons who all have different roles.

Same thing with teams like NE. Who cares what their starting WRs are catching when they have two monsters at TE.

At the end of the day, what's the point of this thread? Are you suggesting we shouldn't bother to, or have no need to upgrade our WR unit, or our pass catching unit in general?

this has nothing to do with Ireland by the way. I don't understand the zeal with which some here want to claim we are a great team that doesn't need improvement.

Dead on...

"shouright wrote:

These threads are all the same. Somebody does the work to show something objectively, and then I come along and denigrate those who disagree because their opinion isn't shared with mine.

Fixed :shifty:

"Disgustipate wrote:

The discontent with Bess and Hartline borderlines on ludicrous.

.

Where's this discontent you speak of?

I don't know that anyone dislikes Bess or Hartline.
Most just reallize they are being leaned on heavily to make up for a lack of even one upper tier playmaker on the unit.

Fineas??

Is there any way of finding out how many tds our offense has scored outside the redzone?, say the last three years, relative to the better teams..say New Orleans?

i like Bess and Hartline. I hope they both stay. But I'd like to see a "stretch the field" reciever or a true deep threat. I don't expect Tannehill to throw multiple 50 yard TD's a game, but a few a season would help open other areas up. Brady benefits from having guys like Welker, Edelman and Woodhead who run great routes and then burn after they catcht the ball. NE's TE situation is an anomally in my opinion. Those 2 are a unique situation. Fasano has potential, but his drops become a problem. Again, I have no issues with Bess or Hartline. The problem becomes when one of them gets taken out of the game and the other has to make 10-15 catches a game that aren't getting Miami close to the end zone. They are a WR short, there's no doubt about it.

"jboogie wrote:

Why do we need to catch passes in the red zone if the run game has been for effective for us? Not trying to prove anyone wrong here, just wondering. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

Wow, Miami is leading at red zone percentage at home?

"DevilFin13 wrote:

Some more stats to back you up:

Bess is 6th in win probability added. Hartline is 29th.

Hartline is 25th in expected points added. Bess is 38th.

Hartline is 22nd in yards per target. Bess is 44th.

They fair better in win probability. With Bess I think that's because he catches so many passes on 3rd down. Individually, I think expected points added and yards per target are better ways to judge their performance/value. While not elite, I think they hold up pretty well for playing with a rookie QB behind a inconsistent offensive line and ****ty running game.

I think they are both good players. Are they complete, elite players? Probably not. Should we look to upgrade the position, particularly with a player that has more straight line speed? Probably. Should we be happy with the value they bring to the team regardless of their issues? I think so. And I think they are fairly far down the list of problems with this team. Plus, I'd like to second Fineas' post. Well stated.

None of this factors in the type & amount of coverage they face compared to their WR competition.
Case in point, regarding WPA, Hartline, Bess, Jacoby Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, and Brandon Gibson are ahead of Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitz, and Mike Wallace. That's silly.

..... and the EPA list has Cruz #54, Wallace #66, Fitzgerald #73. (equally silly)
..... and for EPA Per Play: B Marshall #36 (only 3 spots ahead of #39 Hartline), Wayne #49, Cruz #62, Wallace #66, Fitz #71. (also silly)

I don't put a lot of merit into this stat list, but I do find it interesting that Bess & Hartline's "Catch Rate%" ranks 36th & 40th.

....and if you take away Hartline's 80 yard TD against severely busted coverage , Hartline's yards per target drops to 42nd. Considering this occurred against non bracketed coverage/double coverage, it makes it even less impressive IMO. It just speaks to what many of us believe, that Hartline is a good complimentary piece but not a starter you'd rely on consistently winning with.

Do what you will with the following list. I decided to break down total offensive yardage even further into total yards inside opponent's territory just to see what the stats look like.

It's interesting (disturbing really) that not only is Miami the 6th worst in total yards inside the 50 but we're also 6th worst in percentage of total offensive yards coming from inside opponent's territory. I think both stats combined speaks of what's been mentioned about this offense being easier to defend and less productive as the field shortens b/c our receiving corps at the moment offers little playmaking ability. It sheds a little more perspective on Hartline & Bess potentially having a 1000 yard seasons b/c they're obviously not contributing to a productive offense inside the 50 despite their impressive & misleading individual stats.

total yards
inside
50 yard line

Percentage
of
total yards


total
yards






Jacksonville

943

30.0

3151






St Louis


1045

28.7

3638






Oakland


1047

26.8

3912






Arizona

1097

34.2

3212






Tennessee


1101

30.5

3605






Miami

1114

31.5

3534






KC

1152

31.1

3698






Carolina

1152

30.8

3738






NY Jets

1157

33.9

3418






Cleveland

1200

35.7

3357






Chicago

1269

38.6

3290






Philly

1282

32.6

3928






Tampa

1306

32.5

4019






Minnesota

1311

35.8

3667






Dallas

1350

32.7

4132






Buffalo

1352

32.7

3813






Pitt

1358

36.3

3738






San Diego

1366

38.3

3568






Wash

1392

32.9

4234






Seattle

1398

40.0

3484






Indy

1398

33.0

4246






Cincy

1398

35.5

3943






Balt

1407

36.7

3830






GB

1457

38.6

3772






New Orleans

1494

35.6

4201






Denver

1497

34.7

4310






Atlanta

1544

36.4

4245






San Fran

1646

40.9

4021






NY Giants

1653

40.7

4064






Houston

1687

38.8

4343






Detroit

1732

38.1

4542






New England

1873

39.1

4794

Note: San Fran's impressive 1646 yards and league-leading 40.9% is a huge testament to the significance of a great oline.

"djphinfan wrote:

Fineas??

Is there any way of finding out how many tds our offense has scored outside the redzone?, say the last three years, relative to the better teams..say New Orleans?

I don't think there's a quick and easy way to find that for run and pass combined. For just pass, one could look at the red zone splits for the QBs and subtract the number of redzone TDs from the number of total TDs. This year, Tannehill has 4 and Brees has 10. It is harder to include rushing TDs because you have to go through each RB individually. Bush has 3 rushing TDs from outside the redzone. The Saints have 2. So in total, the Saints have 12 and the Dolphins have 7. But the Patriots also have 7 total. The Broncos have 8. So the gap there may not be as big as some might think. The vast majority of scoring plays start in the red zone.

To me, it isn't as much an issue of quality as it is of quantity. It's like an 8 cylinder engine that's firing on only 6 cylinders. Bess and Hartline are doing their jobs well, but sometimes that just isn't enough. Better 3rd or 4th receiver options or a better pass catching TE might have made a difference between having to punt the ball away and sustaining drives. Personally, I'm not convinced they need a high end #1 receiver like Wallace. But I do think they need another good one and an upgraded threat at TE. In fact, if the coaching staff has any doubt about Egnew's future they should seriously consider drafting another one in the first 2-3 rounds or perhaps make a play for Finley. Get him straightened out and you could get some solid bang for your buck there.