Herbert intrigues me. But I'm not sure I'd take him with the 5th pick.

Thing is, I don't know if he'd make it to 18.

 

Armando is saying it? That's it then Herbert isn't on the Dolphins radar.

Being slightly more serious I'll take everything reported during this season as a smokescreen.

 

Don't want Herbert at five. If we can't trade up for Burrow, my first preference would be to trade out of the spot altogether.

 

OMG. I do hope mando is correct here. I really want Herbert over any of the other QBs. I think he is going to end up being the best of the bunch. I have recently heard that there are several scouts who feel the same way.

 

It would be surprising to see him last until 8, let alone 18.

That said, if like both Tua and Herbert at a similar level, it may preclude the need to trade up. Feels like smoke to me though, and I wonder if there is an actual source other than Ross mentioning the injury thing.

 

Why? He seems to have elite tools/ability, but it seems like he regressed this year, struggled with accuracy and isn't a natural leader. I'd be OK with him at 5 (frankly, any of the "big 4" QBs), but he seems like the type who never really puts it all together. Josh Allen-esque?

 

This would be the worst decision ever made by the Miami Dolphins, if it happens, then the only explanation is Grier has had a lobotomy.

 

Who's the 4th of the "big four QB's"? Love?

 

Josh Allen took a pretty big jump from last year to this year. I wouldnt write him off entirely yet.

His rookie year I said hed never make it. This year he at least made me wonder. If he takes another equal jump like last year he could be a pretty decent QB you can win with.

 

Yes. As of now, they seem to be the only first round regarded QBs and those with the most potential.

I don't see it. A pretty average Texans defense made him look like garbage. He's not consistent enough, and I don't see him getting to that point. He will win some games and produce 9 win seasons, but I don't see a Super Bowl run.

 

I'm not saying he will get to that point either. Most guys dont so he probably wont just on odds alone.

From what I hear though hes a hard worker and he did progress from year 1 to year 2.

I'd at least give him a better chance than Darnold who I think has very very small odds of ever being more than what he is: Average to very slightly above at times and terrible most others.

 

Yes, he certainly has the tools and ability. He didn't regress as bad as some make it out to be. College to pros is a difficult projection. He does not make a lot of mistakes. He finished off the year with two consecutive MVP awards. He's a very smart kid. He is close with his teammates.
Josh Allen is a good comparison from a physical standpoint and I think the Jills are happy with Allen right now. Also, Herbert has almost double the amount of TDs and roughly the same amount of INTs as Allen did in college and Herbert was also a four year starter. Though I don't put a ton of stock into some of the numbers, FWIW, he does have almost a 20 point higher overall rating in college than did Allen.
Hey, I could be completely wrong here. Won't be the first time, but I do think he will end up being the best QB of the bunch.

If the kid sits for a year and gets some solid coaching, then I think skies are the limit for him.

 

If we take Hebert, we just screwed ourselves!

 

I think Herbert will be a very, very average quarterback in the NFL. His athleticism, ability to extend plays, and overall big-play potential will keep him somewhat relevant, but I seriously doubt his ability to identify coverages and make adjustments at the line. Even worse, I think his accuracy is sub-par and there are logical concerns about his ability to lead; I'm sure he's a nice kid, but I don't see 52 NFL men rallying around him. There's no "it" factor, he's too quiet, and he doesn't have the same competitive edge that you see from other guys.

Again, I think he will be serviceable, because there are good mechanics in his game--but at No. 5? No thank you.

Anyway, this is a smokescreen, so it doesn't matter. Miami wants to drum up a fake interest in Herbert to both dampen the flames of their link with Tua and to encourage a potential leap by a team that actually covets Herbert, therefore pushing value further down the board. There's nothing to see here.

 

You know what they say about opinions.

 

At least you get it.

 

I think Herbert has the best chance of all the top quarterbacks to last more than 5 seasons in the NFL... im just not sure he will be great..

he has all the physical tools to last long, just like Tannehill has. But not sure he’s got IT, to be great.

 

Yeah as really these days a mobile QB is in like Wilson, Jackson, Mahomes, etc. But also you need someone to throw both short and long passes. Come down clutch.

 

That's my question, too. Which of the QB's have the IT factor this year, Burrow and Tua? Below is a comparison of stats between the big 3 and Tannehill. They won't tell us who has IT, but it will give us a general idea of their productivity and abilities. Something that jumps out to me is Tua's AY/A of 13.4, which may be a strong indicator of his ability to read defenses, keep his eyes downfield, and handle the pressure in the pocket. All things which I think could really help him in the NFL ( in my uneducated opinion). I would also add that after seeing his stats compared to Tannehills, Herbert is intriguing. I have been down on him because I don't think he has the intuition needed to be a true franchise QB, but maybe I am wrong about that. Many teams passed on Brady and he surprised the hell out of everyone ( the Patriots included).

 

You know, I always hear Herbert hasn't "Put it together" but his line is really respectable. Are we holding these young QB to too lofty standards potentially?

 

Good question. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the key to long term success is to start with a so-called franchise level QB. One could argue that if you surround a lesser journeyman level QB (Dilfer with the Ravens) with top talent than you could have success with that too.However, I think that although that may be the norm because of the scarcity of true franchise QBs it is just as hard to do as it is for teams to find their franchise QB. Thus the conundrum we find ourselves in with this draft. Should we make the play and trade up for Tua, or do we sit at 5 and take Herbert? Anyone have a coin? Lol

 

I would be absolutely mortified if we didn't land Tua and ended up with the like of Herbert, Fromm or Love instead. That's not what we tank..... er, I mean, that's not what we painfully restructured for.

 

This makes me so happy.

I am a big believer that when the facts change so should your opinions. It is no secret that the Dolphins were infatuated by Tua. That being said, he got hurt, and his injury is a serious one. To me, it seems like they are going to go through the process and truly evaluate both of these potential franchise QBs. Here is my biggest takeaway that I do want you guys to garner from this post. If at the end of the day, the Dolphins still feel that Tua is a significant upgrade to Herbert, and they really do think that Tua generational, and decide that they need to move up to get him, I am at okay with that. As long as we aren't making a 2020 draft pick based on a 2019 draft grade, the process is strong.

When it comes to leadership, there is no doubt that Tua is as strong as anyone could realistically hope for. That being said, the old adage is, "The best ability is availability." I just don't know if leadership from the sideline really helps all that much. That being said, undoubtedly, there are questions concerning Herbert's personality. This is one thing that I do think is overplayed, and I do think it is important to put things in perspective.

We have no reason to think that Herbert is a Johnny Manziel or probably not even a Baker Mayfield. From my understanding he has maturity issues and is introverted. First of all, I am with most of you that I would love to have a fiery Dan Marino getting in guys faces. I think that is ideal. We are probably not getting that. That being said, Joe Montana was not really the most outgoing guy in the world. Aaron Rogers, by all accounts, is not exactly easy to get along with, and these guys are Hall of Famers. For all of you guys who will call me out and say that you are painting exceptions as the rule, it is true. My point is that his personality is not so detrimental that he should be excluded from consideration.

My second point that I would like to make is that people grow and evolve and Herbert is demonstrating that he is working to improve. I want you to take a moment and think back to your college years. I was pretty immature. Eventually, I grew up, got a job, had responsibilities and matured. The guys I was closing bars with are now in positions of leadership. People do grow up. People who want to criticize his personality, should focus in one thing. Herbert was potentially the first pick the draft last year and was not going to slip past 6. So there it was - millions of dollars on the table. Clearly, he did not think that he was ready, and he passed up a sure thing to improve his skills. To me, this shows that he is not short sighted, he is introspective, and he puts thought into his choices. He has also been criticized for underachieving. I agree that his time in Oregon was lackluster. That being said, he did win the Rose Bowl and he was the MVP. Also, he was the Senior Bowl MVP. These signature games are coming albeit late.

I seriously think that the debate between Tua and Herbert should be real and well-thought out.

 

Yuck, no thanks.

 

Or just as much an indicator of his great WR corps and their ability at separation and yards after catch. Check out Mac Jones's AY/A and I'd guess it was pretty good too. When it comes to Y/A it is as close as 11.3 and 10.7.
If Tua had been throwing to Oregon's receivers, and Herbert to Bama's, we'd be seeing some significant difference in AY/A and Y/A for both.

 

But that didn't' happen and frankly isn't worth speculating about. You dance with who you have, for better or worse. With Tua, you are still looking at aspects like ball placement, footwork, etc that you can distinguish from receiver play. The fact is, most good QB's have excellent wideouts. Burrow played with 2 guys who are likely first rounders, Jefferson this year and Chase next year, Lawrence likely has a pair of first rounders in Higgins and Ross (next year). You have to find ways to isolate QB performance and find the differences in individual play.

 

I appreciate this post. Its a refreshing take on the 99% of the posts i see which are "OMG, player X sucks", and so on and so on.

One thing i do want to add to it, which I think would have fit in with the point you are trying to make, he also won the William V. Campbell trophy, which is a combination of academics, community service, and on the field performance. And while this won't make him a better pro QB, it does help people understand the person he is.

 

Honestly, it is worth speculating about.

It's way easier to throw a catchable ball to a guy who is wide open than a guy who is blanketed because you cant throw the same type of ball.

IMO Tua has a moderately slow release on deep balls and tends to throw his stride leg very wide which will lead to unnecessary and dangerous hits at the NFL level with the type of pockets that exist in the game today. His bread and butter will most likely be the intermediate pass but I dont believe he has the arm to make those throws.

I think its entirely on point to question them both based on the talent around them because it impacts every little detail.

 

I laugh at all these reports . I mean c’mon the combine is not here yet, no team have held any private workouts for any of these guys .. with that said and done, wake me up on draft night, when the dolphins on the clock. Nevertheless these reports are all entertaining on a boring south Florida day. () love you guys . Stay hype.

 

Thanks for that. And now for our local weather, Angie?...

 

Oregon has had a total of 2 WRs even drafted over the last ten years. Dillon Mitchell in the 7th last year, and Josh Huff in the 3rd in 2014. Herbert's weapons couldn't remotely compare to who Tua, Burrow or Lawrence were throwing to. His two top targets in 2019, Johnny Johnson III, and Jaylon Redd, are both likely 3rd day picks at best, and it wouldn't be a shock if neither is drafted at all. When people want to compare stats, which most fans do, rather than things like ball placement or footwork, it sure does make a difference. It's also easier to make your ball placement look impressive when your targets are constantly getting the kind of separation that Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs do. Or that Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase do. It's not worth speculating about to you because it doesn't reinforce the narrative you're pushing.

 

I think everything should be considered. We have to hit on this draft. We can propel ourselves towards relevancy, or continue to stay a bottom feeder.

 

This is important stuff to be considering. I get nervous when there is draft analysis rooted firmly in production. A lot of that is contingent on system, players around you, and talent a player is facing. Sometimes, it is genuinely difficult assess these guys because we really don't know. Look at Carson Wentz out of North Dakota State! I mean that evaluation was a head scratcher. The talent around him was super dicy. I really think you had to spend time watching him throw a football.

Herbert reminds me of a more polished Josh Allen coming out of college. Again, Wyoming was a place where talent didn't grow on trees. If we had to do the draft again, I obviously think Jackson would go number one, but I think Allen would probably go number two to the Giants.

 

If you are talking fans just basing opinions purely on stats, then sure it makes sense to consider who has better supporting casts. But no real evaluator does that. Stats are a part of the story, but people who actually know what they are doing isolate the play of the QB or find the most relevant stats, and are able to measure their response in different situations. I personally am no evaluator and don't really care to spend hours learning the nuances and breaking down film. But in today's internet era with college ball and the draft being big media business, there are plenty of people who do that at various levels of professionalism, including on this board. I try to base my own opinions on what those people say rather than random fans on message boards or comment sections.

Not coincidentally, it is those fans who mostly seem to make hay regarding Tua's supporting cast, but ONLY Tua's supporting cast, as if he is the only player who plays with other first rounders. It's a tiresome argument imo.

 

But do you disagree specifically with the points that Clean brought up? I think those are significant points.

 

If it's true that Ross wanted to draft Jackson but was overruled by his staff then you have to assume that Ross feels at least a little bit of that "I told you so" mentality and, will see to it that everybody does their homework IF taking a QB is the gameplan. We know that Tua was the target before the injury and, we know that it was Ross himself that expressed concerns about the durability issue. Might be a smokescreen but, it might not. Even with a good showing at the combine I personally don't think that Tua is the clear cut favorite anymore.
In addition to stats, character, "IT" factor, pocket presence, footwork and, the rest of the regular traits, they will likely also consider "Number of hours spent in a hospital bed" and for how many different issues. Hips, knees, ankles, basically every moving part in his legs. Now, you can dismiss them as being "elective" but, if the other QBs didn't need them then, they're a concern and, it doesn't get any easier in the Pros.

 

There’s a theory I have seen that goes that QBs from smaller schools make better NFL QBs than those from bigger schools. It is because they have to work harder on their game and work with smaller less forgiving margins for error.

 

This looks like a classic smokescreen. The Dolphins put out feelers for a trade-up to get Tua, felt like the price was too high, and then tried to drive the price down by leaking that they're "okay" with staying put and taking Herbert.

Same deal with Rosen here recently. They probably put out feelers for his trade value, found no takers, and then leaked that they're "keeping" him.

I suspect the true state of affairs is that they desperately want Tua and Rosen is a goner.

 

Do you actually have data to support this? It sounds very much like specious logic. You don't think guys like Tua and Joe have to absolutely bust *** in order to stay competitive while playing against the most elite college competition?