http://www.drafttek.com/2013-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1.asp
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This will give all the Austin fans a warm fuzzy
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Lane Johnson makes sense if he's available, I like Watson in the 2nd rd if Martin goes to LT, and at #12 if Lotuleilei is available I don't think that you pass on him. although I really wouldn't want to use that pick on a DT. Maybe Xavier Rhodes, who knows. This just isn't a very strong top 15 draft, we'll have to make the best of it. -
No way I could pass up Star for the next potential Dexter McCluster after signing three expensive Wrs. Especially with Starks and Soliai with a year remaining. DT is so important in Ireland's world, he's used the franchise pick twice there
Limbo likes this. -
Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member
I would be "shocked [there is gambling in this establishment]" if Star were on the board and Miami passed on him (just as far as talent ranking) even though I love the Austin pick. But, I also doubt Star drops out of the top 10.
I really will be interested to see where Dion Jordan actually goes. Nearly every mock has him in the top 5 but I think he could easily fall to 20 or further. -
Pretty believable mock through 12 imo, could see all of those easily. Tough choice between Tavon and Star, I don't think you can go wrong either way really, but hard to pass on that kind of playmaking potential. I think it is easier to find a DT elsewhere to replace a Soliai/Starks than add someone like Austin.
My top four for Miami all went in a cluster right around us - Austin, Star, Werner, Vaccaro. Interesting to see. -
Color me impressed with Austin is the best receiver on his own college team with better vertical ability and who can break a tackle.
A lot of guys are seeing once in a generation talent here. I see a guy who is only slightly better than Ryan Swope (round 2 or 3) for us -
As per McCluster, he's not as fast and not as explosive imo. I don't live and die by the combine #s, but he ran a 4.58. Just not the same player.
A small player (albeit relatively thick and muscular) is usually a hard sell, but he fits a need for us as per adding speed and the ability to win 1 on 1 matchups. If it were a stronger top 10-20 draft that would be great, but given the relative dearth of talent and the flawed pass rusher class, Austin stacks up pretty well imo. Personally I see him as less of a potential bust than Patterson, and although it would be nice if he were bigger, I'd be ok with Austin at #12- swapping him for Bess in the slot is a pretty big upgrade imo, huge increase in speed and explosiveness. -
I'm often the counterpoint on this issue, but I do like Austin. It's not like I feel he is undraftable, But I value him as a late first rounder or early second rounder. Of the guys in the neighborhood we pick, there's no way I can pass up Star, Jarvin Jones, Milner, Lane Johnson, Rhodes or Werner for Tavon Austin.
For the Dolphins and the WCO, I have Patterson and Allen ahead of him, and Swope is practically a coin flip. The familiarity with Tannehill and the system is very attractive there.
I think if people go back and look at Ryan Swope and forget the likely draft position for a moment, you see an equal to better athlete with better size and vertical ability. Austin has better YAC ability and vision and shuttle.
Austin is a guy you throw short do, body catch it, and let him work. That's basically what he presents as a receiver. I think many of those holes and angles he saw in college will close up quick in the NFL. -
In order to think of Tavon Austin as another Dexter McCluster you have to think Tavon has been primarily a tailback at the college level which, anyone that's watched him for four years, knows he wasn't until the Oklahoma game in 2012. Prior to that, he was a straight up slot receiver.
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OH, and I love Ryan Swope's ability as a receiver. The history of concussions concern me. He's reportedly had at least four concussions. What kind of long term effects is this going to have on him, and will it cut his career short? No concussions, and I wouldn't hesitate to take Ryan Swope in the 2nd round.
His playing style is fearless though, and it's probably going to shorten his career. I do love the way he doesn't stop when he catches the football. He doesn't slow down. He runs through the catch whether he is about to take a big hit or if he has open field to roam. -
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I'm not as big a fan of Ryan Swope. Between the concussions, the fact that he doesn't play as fast as he times on the field, doesn't show explosiveness to me...I'd probably look elsewhere to get what I need.
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Incidentally it's unfathomable to me why Draftek gets its own thread every time they run a new mock. It's been by far the absolute worst mock drafting site that I've seen throughout this entire draft season. Whenever they come up with one that is even mildly realistic, it's notable.
djphinfan, Claymore95 and ToddPhin like this. -
If we evaluate Austin as a receiver against his toughest six secondaries in their best year, and do the same for Swope, you get 100 yards and a TD from each. Swope has a higher per catch average in those contests, I imagine more of Austin's yards after the catch (I understand like 70% of his receiving yards came after the catch). I would love to see yards after contact for each guy, but have been unable to find that.
Anyway, my comfort with Swope is why I'm so cavalier about passing on Austin in round 1. -
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I don't think this is fair. There has been as much over-hype as there has been under. Almost reminds me of when Reggie Bush came out.
As always, the truth lies somewhere between the 2 opinions. -
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I think if Tavon Austin is not all that is promised he will very much resemble Dexter McCluster. But if he is, he'll resemble Percy Harvin.
Bpk likes this. -
Bpk likes this.
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Problem with drafting Star L is he has no clear path to Ireland's 600 snaps out of a #1 pick.
Tackle and Cb does, Wr, not so much, Lb is a maybe.Bpk likes this. -
eltos_lightfoot likes this.
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Not a WR, but maybe a decent Austin comparison is Warrick Dunn size wise? Guy was overall a healthy and productive player despite small size. Big impact, and at a tougher position.
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Bpk likes this.
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I think Stedman Bailey is a terrific receiver. He and Tavon Austin are different kinds of players. I've got them neck and neck. Based on what Miami has already done I think Austin is a better fit. If you're considering Bailey to be just a slot guy then you have to rate Austin considerably higher. If you need someone that can play every position and/or the outside, IMO I don't know how you end up with Austin rated higher. That's just the truth.Bpk likes this. -
A) A slot receiver - I'm going with Austin
but if I want
B) A slot receiver who can play lots of boundary - I'm going with Bailey?
I wasn't sure how to differentiate the two, to be honest. I love Bailey as a WR. Everything he does, I love. I think you were one of the first people to say he's like a hair slower Steve Smith and since reading that, I can't un-see it. I love the way he attacks... everything.
Is there any relevance to all of this "Miami wants 5 guys who play every position at WR" stuff? I'm hearing that and it's why I'm looking at guys like CP or S. Bailey... and I can't stop hoping to see Bailey called @ #54.
If you're Jeff Ireland, going into draft day... what are you doing? Are you ignoring both of them and going with someone else? Are you grabbing Bailey later? I have to admit... the idea of adding another weapon on offense is tempting but I see all these holes (present and future) and I just... worry.Bpk likes this. -
Swope had 10 catches, 81 yards vs LSU.
Texas: 3 catches, 33 yards.
Oklahoma: 8 catches, 104, 1 TD.
Austin vs a better LSU secondary in 2011 (Mathieu, Claiborne, Brooks, Reid) : 11 catches, 187 yards.
Texas (vs Vaccaro): 10 catches, 102 yards, 1 TD.
Oklahoma: in the midst of a 344 yard/2 TD rushing day, managed to squeeze in 4 catches for 82 yards.
Swope had 5 100+ yard games with a high of 141 and averaged 65 receiving yards & 0.57 TD per game in 2012.
Swope had 4 games under 20 yards and 6 games of 75+.
Austin had 6 100+ yard receiving games with a high of 215 and averaged 99.2 & .92 TD per game...... BUT he would've had more 100+ games and a greater per game average if he weren't busy being utilized as a running back during the final 4 games after Geno Smith hit a bit of a rut.
Austin had 0 games under 20 yards and 10 games of 75+.
All total Austin had 9 100+ yard games, averaged 149 scrimmage yards/game, and 1.15 TD/game, essentially doubling Swope's production. -
MrClean likes this.
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2. Loaded question on what I'd do. You're giving me an off season halfway executed. If I'm Jeff Ireland here and I've inherited everything that's already been done, none of it was mine but I've got to live with it, then yeah I give some thought to Austin at 12. Certainly. Why? Because in Mike Wallace you've given Ryan Tannehill a type of go-to guy that he's not necessarily shown a comfort level with either at Texas A&M or in Miami. Nor has Mike Wallace shown a comfort level with being the kind of go-to guy his contract calls for him to be. Nor has Joe Philbin shown a comfort level with the idea of a go-to guy period. Unless all those years of talk were just more bull sh-t which I suppose is possible. Add Tavon Austin to the mix and you give Tannehill a Ryan Swope type player that he doesn't have to feel bad about relying on even during the most important times in the game because, let's face it, it's Tavon '****ing' Austin and he's the 12th overall pick. Mike Wallace suddenly has to realize he's not the only big fish in the pond. The coaches know it. The defenses know it. Really changes things. But the irony of all this is if you knew all this you wouldn't have signed Wallace in the first place because you know that what he's actually giving you could be had cheaper. So that's why it's a loaded question.Bpk and CANDolphan like this. -
That's an interesting take, Chris. Thanks.
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You gotta just throw away the RB stuff for Austin, it ain't gonna happen in the NFL. Randall Cobb, for example, got 10 carries last season and 2 in his first. I don't see it.
After that, you're paying the difference between round 1 and 3 in Austin's return ability. I would quite happily go get Tannehill his favorite receiver and a guy that already knows this offense with his eyes closed and let some team trade up with us for Austin.
I'm not certain either guy comes in and beats the pants off Davone Bess either. We all assume the draft pick will, but I'm not sure.
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