Always reticent to re-post anything on April 1st but I'll take the risk with this one as I don't see anything immediately 'hoaxed' about it. Ian Wharton re-tweeted from Dustin Godin of FinDepth. The conversation, as it stands, is below:
Ian Wharton @NFLFilmStudy 7 hrs7 hours ago
Huh. But what did your eyes say RT @Dus_Phins: updated my stats on the deepball & Wallace issue. trend continues.
7:44 am - 1 Apr 2015 · Details
Dustin Godin @Dus_Phins 7 hrs7 hours ago
@NFLFilmStudy lolol ive actually got about 130 video clips on my pc of those plays. These stats confirm what I see in those.
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20 yards is considered a deep pass, so that is kinda a meaningless stat posted.
Fin-Omenal likes this. -
I think, some fans are so used to poor QB play from the Dolphins, their brains just won't let them accept that we actually have a good QB now.Ducken, GARDENHEAD, Pandarilla and 4 others like this. -
He doesn't like Tannehill, so he tries to knock him every chance he gets. In order to do this, he has to change the accepted meaning of "deep ball" from a ball traveling more than 20 yards, to something else, until he finds a range where Tannehill struggles. For most, this means that they move the goalposts to something like a "deep ball" being 40-50 yards in the air. Nevermind the fact that the odds of completing those passes are incredibly low, even for the best deep ball throwers.
GARDENHEAD, danmarino and Fin D like this. -
And just in case anyone was wondering, Dustin has confirmed that in those stats a deep ball means:
Dustin Godin @Dus_Phins 2 mins2 minutes ago
@Galantry @NFLFilmStudy ball travels 20+ past the line of scrimmage. accounts for only posts, corners and gos except for a couple odd plays
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Here is the thing, Wallace ran more (and was targeted on) 9 routes than any receiver we've had during that sample size, so accuracy is expected to be lower IMO. I also bet the YPA were higher going to Wallace as well. This chart is a convenient tool to blame Wallace against the many that are convenient to blame Tannehill. The truth is in the middle. This has been such a polarizing topic that people feel the need to be on one extreme or another. I wonder what Big Ben's stats were with Wallace, and what Big Ben's stats were with Wallace vs. all his other deep throws. I think this chart is great but doesn't take into account the full context of the situation, but then again not many stat points do.
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The problem was always that Wallace runs poor timing routes and has a small catch radius, while the oline rarely gave Tannehill time.
Think about it, as fast as Wallace is it still takes him 4.28 seconds to run 40 yards....(that's at his max speed in shorts without being jammed and running in a straight line.) Tannehill has under 3 seconds to throw the ball on average. Its simple math. -
It's really crazy, you look at the season that Tannehill had last year, and you consider that he came out a raw, raw prospect with high potential, and there are people who act like Tannehill is hot garbage. That is why this topic has been so polarizing. Simply because certain posters had an agenda, and tried to advance it with ridiculous arguments.
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You mention Wallace's speed and timing, but I don't think you can fault Wallace for the fact that Tannehill has under three seconds to throw. And if the counter to that is 3 seconds isn't much below NFL average (because I am not sure, but probably close) than why such a premium on 4.3 speed threats in the league? -
You also can't fault Tannehill for his oline having him get smashed on throws that he gets off in under 2.5, much less trying to wait 3-3.5 seconds for Wallace to be open deep. I don't think anyone faulted Wallace for the oline not being able to hold blocks, but I do think that Wallace did an absolutely terrible job at tracking the ball, and a terrible job at adjusting to the ball.
Actually, I believe statistically, Tannehill really wasn't far off from the league average on deep balls. -
Then why post in this thread?
There are still going to be discussions about Tannehill's accuracy, whether Wallace is here or not. And, you can bet on it, certain posters will continue to bring up the Wallace years in an effort to tear down Tannehill. -
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Next season we'll see how both Tannehill and Wallace produce without each other, and then we can draw better conclusions. But, IMO, Tannehill's deep ball production is going to increase, while Wallace will likely never have another season, in regards to the deep catches, as good as 2010 and 2011.
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Yes, no one is arguing that. It still is negated by the timing route aspect of our offense and our poor oline.
Clean step or two, nullifying the small catch radius:
WADR, that makes no sense, they have nothing to do with one another.
Tannehill being below average:
Based solely on the rest of your first paragraph, I don't know how you came to that conclusion.
Blaming Wallace for Tannehill having under 3 seconds to throw:
I didn't blame Wallace. I clearly blamed the oline for that.
Coveting 4.3 speed:
The faster a guy can run, the faster he can to his target spot BECAUSE the QB has so little time to throw. -
When people say Wallace has a smaller catch radius, people think of Dez and Megatron climbing the ladder over a CB, etc. With 1 or 2 steps of separation, it shouldn't matter with an accurate toss. If the CB is stride for stride, even an accurate toss requires a play by the WR on the ball to beat the DB. Under these circumstances Wallace is inferior. Although, he has made great plays on the ball in contested situations himself. He just won't go "up" and get the ball because he simply isn't build to do so. His will to try and desire is lacking at times as well but every player has their niche.
That was my line of thought anyway. -
Even if no one was on Wallace having a small catch radius decreases the amount of balls he'll catch because the throws have to be right on the numbers for him to catch it.
Also, timing based routes generally means the receiver has to be at X spot on the field at Y time. Which in turn means the QB is throwing to a spot and not the receiver. So if the receiver is running sloppy routes he may be further from the X spot, thereby hoping that spot still falls within his catch radius. Having a small CR while running sloppy routes, means the CR and the X Spot are not interesting enough.
With Big Ben before the offense there changed to a timing based offense, all Ben had to do was throw it to the open man, which was Wallace. I guarantee you, Tannehill would hit Wallace a helluva lot more if they weren't about a timing based offense and just throwing to the player and not a spot on the field. -
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resnor likes this.
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So, while having a clean step or two does help negate small catch radius, I think Wallace probably needed a clean ~3 steps to negate both a small catch radius and his inability to catch contested balls. -
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Anyway, you're still wrong :wink2:
You're assuming the blue route (the actual route run) is independent of where the receiver sees the ball going. Obviously it's not independent, so the blue route will change based on where the ball is actually thrown. With more space between the WR and DB, the WR has a greater ability to adjust the route to catch the ball. -
Also, the illustration is merely to point out how small catch radius affects the completion regardless if there's a defender to contest the catch. -
You do remember cases where Wallace backtracked or? -
If you want to post Tannehill to laundry stats or tannehill to mathews or tannehill to sims or tannehill to hazel then cool, at least those are relevant. -
But either way, having a larger catch radius is something that would positively affect the probability of a catch being made.cbrad likes this. -
So, when you throw in a receiver who isn't good at tracking balls in the air, or adjusting to the ball in the air, then you have a problem.
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Fin D likes this.
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Here's an article I managed to dig up from November 2013. Had some interesting things to say on the T17-Wallace connection and timing, play design and other aspects.
Please read the post.
I'll post a few summary graphics/quotes here.
[TABLE="width: 549"]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD]RECEIVER[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]CATCHES[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]DROPS[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]ATTEMPTS[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]ACCURACY %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD]Mike Wallace[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]23.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD]Brian Hartline[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]48.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD]Everyone Else[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 513"]
10 Gradable Deep Vertical Throws to Mike Wallace[TR="class: odd"]
[TD]RESULT[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]OPPONENT[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]NOTES[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD]49-yd rec.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Ravens[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Fake WR Screen, slight underthrow[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD]46-yd rec.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bills[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50-yd throw, hit as threw, caught in stride[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD]34-yd rec.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Colts[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Slight underthrow, down at 1-yd line[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD]Dropped[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Saints[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Ball thrown in stride, dropped[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD]OOB[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bucs[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Wallace fails to adjust to ball, out-of-bounds[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD]Incomplete[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Browns[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]55-yd throw, overthrown by one yd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD]Incomplete[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Ravens[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45-yd throw, severely underthrown[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD]Incomplete[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Browns[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Poor decision, Wallace stumbled on route[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD]Incomplete[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Chargers[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50-yd throw, poor play design[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD]Intercepted[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Patriots[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Poor decision, didn't look off safety
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
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