It's total wins.

So, if you choose over 8, you're betting that Miami will win more than 8 games.
If you choose less than 8 (wise bet), you're betting that Miami will win less than 8 games.

 

A $100 bet on the over will get you $110, a $140 dollar bet on the under will get u $100. Basically they're saying Miami is more likely to go over 8 wins.

 

Wise bet= you're confused.

 

It means they're giving better odds/encouraging people to take the under.

 

I think it means the actual line is more like 7.75 or something.

 

If you bet $100 on the over, and the dolphins win more than the 8 games, you win $110 (plus you get the $100 you bet back)

For the under, if you bet $140 and the dolphins win less than 8 games, you would win $100 (plus you get the $140 you bet back)


The under is the "favorite"; The over is the "underdog"

 

Um, no. The ROI is higher for the under bet, meaning the under bet is the "underdog". You're basically saying the casinos are offering bigger rewards to the people who are betting on the most likely outcome, Id love it if true, but it's never gonna happen.

 

Lol he's tryna confuse you.

The "favorite" is always the side that brings in the lesser ROI, the underdog is the less likely outcome, thus the higher ROI. A correct $100 bet on the over will get you about $190, while a correct $100 bet on the under will get you $240, minus the juice.

The under 8 wins is the "underdog" by a pretty wide margin.

 

Huh?

Vegas is saying Miami under 8 wins is the higher probability.

It costs you 140 to try and win 100 if u bet on the Under, it costs you 90 to win 100 if u take the Over. You can't count what u wager as ROI. The over is the underdog.

 

Yeah I just reread the OP, you're right, my bad people. The dislexia kicked in and I thought I saw +140 on the under instead of -140.

 

No worries, if they put out +110 and +140 life would be good for me. No way I could lose.

 

Vegas is saying that mostly likely Miami wins less than 8 games so if you bet $100 they will only pay you $60 if you win thus the -140. If Miami goes over 8 wins the plus sign means they add to your bet so if you bet $100 they will pay you $110 thus the +110. So basically Miami is an underdog to win over 8 games.

 

Bovada has them now at -145 Under. And 5dimes has Miami at +130 Over/-150 Under.

Essentially they're regretting setting the initial win total at 8.0 instead of 7.5, most likely because of the Pouncey injury, and they're choosing to change the odds instead of the actual over/under because they don't want to get sided or middled.

In all likelihood teams like St. Louis (-155 Over), Arizona (-150 Over) and Houston (-150 Over) have higher projected win totals in their equations, but the win total for those three are stuck a half a win short of Miami's because they don't want to get sided or middled by gamblers. This is probably one reason you see Super Bowl and Playoff odds consistently rank Miami in the #24 to #26 range.

 

Bovada caved. They moved the 8.0 (Under -165) win total down to 7.5 (Under -125). Too much action on the under, and the new models weren't supporting the original prediction.

With the new odds they rank #23 in NFL win totals. They still tie at #24 to #26 in both playoffs likelihood, and Super Bowl likelihood.