This certainly isn't "newsworthy" but it felt like a good change of pace article for this time in the year. Here's this person's viewpoint on why Miami will be a playoff team this season and why he bet $50 on it in Vegas (NOTE....I did not write this article!)-
https://www.lockedondolphins.com/dolphins/my-money-is-on-the-miami-dolphins-making-the-playoffs/
Here's a little snippet-
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That's a bad bet, but I guess that's one reason Vegas makes money. It's actually quite competitive now. I'd list at least 8 teams in the AFC most likely vying for 6 spots: Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Texans, Colts, Chiefs and Chargers. That's tough competition.
Right now Vegas thinks we'll win maybe 5 or so. Going through archived odds..
https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-odds/
you'll see the standard deviation of the difference between actual wins vs. expected total wins is about 2, meaning that about 2/3 of the time Vegas gets it right +-2 from what they list. For us to make the playoffs we'd need minimum 9 wins and probably 10, which puts you over 2 standard deviations away from expected which translates to at best a 1:20 chance you'd win this bet. That in turn translates to about a +2000 moneyline, yet he bet on a +1100 moneyline.
So just using historical data you can see it's a bad bet. I think maybe if the moneyline goes well above +2000 you can consider this bet.Surfs Up 99, The Guy and KeyFin like this. -
Heh nice chart and the only reminder Harris is still on the team..But i guess Gase was right in one thing and that was dumping Ajayi.
KeyFin likes this. -
I am not expecting it but hey, it's happened twice in recent memory for Miami and the other one was bringing in an older veteran QB who seemed past his prime like Fitz. If our defense drastically improves under the new coaching who knows.....maybe we can figure out our way to 9 wins somehow. To me, this is not the season schedule for that to happen though- it looks brutal.Surfs Up 99, Hooligan and cbrad like this. -
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I think that its very possible that the skill positions on the offense are all better in 2019 than they were in 2016 if the guys stay mostly healthy. The offensive line was a mess then, and could very well be again this coming season.
On defense, the secondary is probably better this coming season than it was then. The ugly part is the front seven. Beyond Wake and Suh, the line underachieved that year, but that's the key - Wake and Suh. Two Pro Bowlers and then a bunch of guys who weren't pulling their weight is better than what we have now. I expect both the run defense and pass rush to be among the very worst in the league this coming season, and the pass rush in particular might be one of the worst in Dolphins history.
That being said, the 2016 team overachieved, and really shouldn't have made the playoffs. The team's talent level was closer to 6-10 than it was to 10-6, and they repeatedly pulled games out of their rear end that they had no business winning - something that Gase would continue to make a habit of. At the end of the season, the 2019 club might end up actually being better than the one from that season. But I don't expect them to come close to ten wins. -
For me, the path as I see it for the bet to make sense:
1) Coaching addresses the OL woes.
2) Coaching covers the lack of DL talent through scheming.
3) someone steps up at QB.
Having one or two of those issues solved is possible, maybe even likely. Having all three happen is wishful thinking.
I honestly think our skill position talent (RB, WR, TE, LB, DB) is pretty good, especially if our coaching staff can get improvement out of the younger players in the roster.
I am hopeful that our game planning and scheming will be better than last year, based on the past experience of our coaching staff. Adam Gase May have been a genius at drawing up plays, but he couldn’t stitch a coherent game plan together.
Year 1 of any regime is usually a honeymoon period so the dysfunction we’ve seen between the FO and coaching staff with the Sparano/Philbin/Gase eras should be at a relatively low level. i.e. The dysfunction gets worse the longer the same individuals are in the same seats.
So if the big 3 questions (OL, DL and QB) can be answered positively then there rest of the parts seem to be in place to mount a playoff run. But it’s a bet I’d make with someone else’s money.Surfs Up 99 likes this. -
In 1969 the Dolphins went 3, 10 and 1.
in 1970 the Dolphins in Don Shula's 1st year went 10 and 4.
The similarities between Coach Flo and Coach Shula are in the details. They both stress less penalties, turnovers, better fundamentals of the game.
Just sayinMiamiforlife and Unlucky 13 like this. -
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KeyFin likes this.
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I like his optimism. With our schedule we may not get the wins, but I believe the challenges will make our team better for it in the long run.
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Miami's home field advantage, since the roof was put in, is under rated. 16 and 8 at home the last three years. On teams that went 23 and 25 over all. 11 and 12 at home the three years prior to the roof, on teams that went 22 and 26 overall
And look at the schedule this season, 3 of the 4 games in September are at home, when the roof matters most. -
And if everyone in the passing game is healthy and used properly, then we should have a ton of options there who can be productive, even if none of them are among the best.
The problem is the line giving Rosen enough time and creating enough holes for the run game. It could really hinder the position players to a few levels below their potential.Dol-Fan Dupree likes this. -
I just don't see us making a playoff push this season, not impossible but not likely either. One thing that does bother me is the media says we don't have any players at the skill positions as their reasoning as to why we aren't going to be any good. I think that is hogwash, in fact I think we have plenty of horsepower at the skill positions on offense and pretty good pieces in the secondary as well. I still say this teams biggest Achilles heel is the lines on both sides of the ball. If we can get average play out of them I think this team has an outside chance at the playoffs.
I just don't see that as likely and I'm ok with that for this year as long as I can see some progress.Irishman likes this. -
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I think the biggest issue I see is in 2016, we had a top tier DE in wake and could get to the QB whereas I see that being a major issue with this years team. Maybe these coaches will get more out of less. I like seeing a different take than the typical rebuild article. I’m remaining patient as we all have for the better part of 2 decades and at least feel like this staff gets it. Time will tell
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Zero analysis done on the most important position he's comparing from 2016 to 2019 which is, of course; the QB position. Say whatever you want about Ryan Tannehill but he was playing lights out in 2016 before the injury. To casually suggest that journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick and still yet to prove he's not a bum Josh Rosen can easily replace that production is ridiculous. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don't think so.
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Aqua4Ever04 likes this.
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Hmmm. Never seen tannehill play what i would call lights out. He had a couple decent games stat wise. But lights out? Hardly imo. 400 yards and 5 td a game. Never. He threw for 2995 yards and 19 td’s in 13 games. 12 ints. 93.5 rating hardly lights out stats. More like great game manager stats. He would of choked in the playoff game any way. ImoHooligan likes this. -
But going back to this graph from an earlier post:
https://www.thephins.com/threads/ho...turn-into-a-good-qb.94337/page-2#post-3176711
you can see that 1 passer rating point in 2018 corresponds to a 1.04% change in win%, so Tannehill's "opponent-adjusted" rating in 2018 (adjusting to an average opponent in 2018) would be about 90.5 instead of 97.3 and Fitz's would be about 104 instead of 100.4. So if the conversation is just about comparing these 2 years then yeah 13.5 passer rating points is a big difference.
However.. opponent strength averages out over many years so you really don't need to worry about it much when comparing careers. Weighted average 2018-adjusted career ratings for Tannehill and Fitzpatrick are 91.3 and 87, respectively, so overall Tannehill is slightly better than Fitzpatrick over his career. For comparison, 92.9 is the league average in those calculations (2018 league average). -
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Pauly likes this.
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I think if you’re looking for stats then maybe the sack% could help, especially if it can be linked with the pressure % (I’m not sure how far back such data goes). All the data I’m aware of goes on about the passer rating when under pressure, but if we could also lay over rushes, rushing yards and sack% when under pressure. That could give you an idea of how effective a QB is at turning pressure into a jailbreak positive rush.
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https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_sacked_perc_career.htm
The QB with the lowest sack% (just above 3%) tend to be pocket passers that get the ball out quickly, like Manning, Marino and Brees. Highly mobile QB however can be anywhere on that list. Steve Young is right next to Ryan Tannehill at just under 8% and Aaron Rodgers is also around there at ~7%. Young and Rodgers are good examples of QB's with high sack% not because they were bad at evading pressure, but because they were GOOD at it and held the ball longer trying to make a play.
So I'd stay away from sack% unless you're really confident you know why the sack occurred. Pressure is better, and you're right that having a "pressure on QB" column for any play by play database would do the trick. I've downloaded play by play data, but there is no QB pressure stat in any of them. Not even sure there's an agreed upon definition of pressure among those that report it.The Guy likes this. -
If the sites that claim to measure passing while under pressure keep that stat in a published format, perhaps it would be possible to get the data for QB rushing on plays where there was pressure.resnor likes this. -
MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member
Pouncey only started 5 games at C. The other 11 were split between Steen, and Urbik.
Also, not considered is Jason Sanders is a better kicker than was Andrew Franks.KeyFin likes this. -
The question for the 2019 season isn't going to be the caliber of the players...it's going to be the caliber of the coaches. Coaching is EVERYTHING! Players merely execute the schemes and plays called by the coaches. Granted, the better caliber players you have, the better the execution of said schemes and plays but the bottom line though, the Dolphins coaching staff will be the determining factor this season.
If Brian Flores, Jim Caldwell et al are able to bring schemes and plays to the field that outcoach our opponents, we're going to have a successful season, but if their schemes and plays are right out of "Football For Dummies' and the opposing defense is in the backfield as soon as the ball is snapped....if opposing running backs are past the defensive line before the DL even knows what happened...and the coaches aren't able to adjust, then it doesn't matter what caliber players we have...the team is executing what's being called.
For years, everyone has ridden Tom Brady's jock strap and marveled at his manhood. I always rolled my eyes. I'm not taking anything away from Brady. He is a phenomenal player, but more importantly in New England's dominance in the AFC has had more to do with their defense shutting down opposing offenses and giving Brady numerous opportunities. Without that defense, New England's success would be half of what it's been. The question now becomes, will Flores bring that same tenacity to Miami's defense, holding opposing offenses and giving our offense, regardless of who is under center, more and more opportunities? Only time will tell and I'm eager to find out. -
2018: 18/20, 31st
2017: 21/23, 27th
2016: 16/21, T-last
2015: 13/16, T-last
2014: 29/37, T-5th
2013: 26/34, 12th
2012: 23/30 T-23rd
2011: 33/39, T-3rd
2010: 30/41, T-1st
2009: 25/28, T-17th
Obviously, the numbers went way down in the chaos year of 2015 when Philbin and the coordinators were fired mid season. But then they stayed way down under Gase, far below the league average. Even Dolphins teams with a lousy offense who didn't score many touchdowns still would attempt field goals under Sparano and Philbin, but due to Gase's penchant for all or nothing possessions, that clearly wasn't the case the last few seasons. And then we'll get a much better idea of how good Sanders is, and if he's the guy to go forward with.