Gailey on Tua

I'd even turn that around. One of the big questions was why we hired Chan Gailey! A great QB can make even a mediocre OC look good. Best example is Gase with Manning, but Tua with Gailey might end up being another example.

"cbrad wrote:

I'd even turn that around. One of the big questions was why we hired Chan Gailey! A great QB can make even a mediocre OC look good. Best example is Gase with Manning, but Tua with Gailey might end up being another example.

You're not accounting for how the offense looked pre Tua. Gailey has been a slam dunk hire. Even with Fitz we were scoring at a pace, gaining first downs and controlling the clock at levels we haven't seen in a very long time.

"Bumrush wrote:

You're not accounting for how the offense looked pre Tua. Gailey has been a slam dunk hire. Even with Fitz we were scoring at a pace, gaining first downs and controlling the clock at levels we haven't seen in a very long time.

We scored an average of 26.7 points per game pre-Tua. The league average is 25.3. That's only marginally above average. Here, take a look at Gailey's history:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/GailCh0.htm

Mediocre overall, but clearly trending downwards over his career in terms of offensive points scored. Watch how those rankings suddenly vault up with Tua (a prediction I'm making) and you'll see what I'm talking about.

"cbrad wrote:

We scored an average of 26.7 points per game pre-Tua. The league average is 25.3. That's only marginally above average. Here, take a look at Gailey's history:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/GailCh0.htm

Mediocre overall, but clearly trending downwards over his career in terms of offensive points scored. Watch how those rankings suddenly vault up with Tua (a prediction I'm making) and you'll see what I'm talking about.

I'm not sure about that- Preston Williams was a big piece of this offense and we traded away Ford. Unless the WR coming off suspension is legitimate, we might have some bumps in the road over the next couple of weeks. Or Grant may step up and surprise us (would be more Tua and Gailey than Grant himself).

The way I see it, Parker is getting smothered as our WR1 and Gisecki is getting safety help being covered as well, so it's really about that WR3 to make this offense work at really high levels. Williams is such an ideal fit for that and he's really going to be missed, but let's see how we scheme around him being out.

"Bumrush wrote:

You're not accounting for how the offense looked pre Tua. Gailey has been a slam dunk hire. Even with Fitz we were scoring at a pace, gaining first downs and controlling the clock at levels we haven't seen in a very long time.

Hes been hit or miss for me personally. He has a tendency to occasionally delve into very questionable play calls at inopportune moments.

I love a few of his play designs but I've also been equally unimpressed with other choices.

Gaily has been okay for the most part, but there have been some weird calls on his part. Like in this past game, he called a run play on the last possession of the half with no timeouts remaining forcing Tua to spike the ball to stop the clock. Sanders still made a 56-yard field goal, but I think a pass play to pick up more yardage and go out of bounds for an easier kick would have been the smarter play. At worst, Tua could just throw the ball away (properly) and still have a 54-yard try instead of a 56-yard try.

"cbrad wrote:

We scored an average of 26.7 points per game pre-Tua. The league average is 25.3. That's only marginally above average. Here, take a look at Gailey's history:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/GailCh0.htm

Mediocre overall, but clearly trending downwards over his career in terms of offensive points scored. Watch how those rankings suddenly vault up with Tua (a prediction I'm making) and you'll see what I'm talking about.

1.4 points over average is pretty damn good for this year. 25.3 is in a year were the league average is at its highest its every been. The average 2011 - 2019 is about 22.5 points. So he's beating the best average in history. Geez, not sure what more you can ask for. One more field goal and they would be in top 10 of scoring. And top 3 in scoring differential. Which means that when you're ahead you run the ball more not trying to push it up the field.

"Not So Fast wrote:

Gaily has been okay for the most part, but there have been some weird calls on his part. Like in this past game, he called a run play on the last possession of the half with no timeouts remaining forcing Tua to spike the ball to stop the clock. Sanders still made a 56-yard field goal, but I think a pass play to pick up more yardage and go out of bounds for an easier kick would have been the smarter play. At worst, Tua could just throw the ball away (properly) and still have a 54-yard try instead of a 56-yard try.

Thought he called that for better positioning and maybe an easier kick...

"Not So Fast wrote:

Gaily has been okay for the most part, but there have been some weird calls on his part. Like in this past game, he called a run play on the last possession of the half with no timeouts remaining forcing Tua to spike the ball to stop the clock. Sanders still made a 56-yard field goal, but I think a pass play to pick up more yardage and go out of bounds for an easier kick would have been the smarter play. At worst, Tua could just throw the ball away (properly) and still have a 54-yard try instead of a 56-yard try.

I think they were just trying to position Sanders for the kick and have ZERO problems with that call. I also think they felt they could catch them off guard and make the kick a bit easier for him.

"Finatik wrote:

1.4 points over average is pretty damn good for this year. 25.3 is in a year were the league average is at its highest its every been. The average 2011 - 2019 is about 22.5 points. So he's beating the best average in history. Geez, not sure what more you can ask for. One more field goal and they would be in top 10 of scoring. And top 3 in scoring differential. Which means that when you're ahead you run the ball more not trying to push it up the field.

I dont mind the reasoning behind the call which is to center the ball before its kicked to prevent it possibly hooking too far.

That said from 56 yards I'm actually less concerned with putting the ball in the center than I am picking up a few more yards. I guess the idea is you hope the run also picks up 2-3 extra but I actually think we lost yardage on the play.

I've had more issues with some of his redzone calls, though they have been better lately, and that pitch to Howard. I have no idea how he thought that would be anything but a loss.

Yeah they arent expecting Howard to take it outside but hes also slower than I am seemingly and any NFL defender is shaking off that initial deception and catching him in PLENTY of time.

"Finatik wrote:

1.4 points over average is pretty damn good for this year. 25.3 is in a year were the league average is at its highest its every been. The average 2011 - 2019 is about 22.5 points. So he's beating the best average in history. Geez, not sure what more you can ask for. One more field goal and they would be in top 10 of scoring. And top 3 in scoring differential. Which means that when you're ahead you run the ball more not trying to push it up the field.

1.4 points is not remarkable. The standard deviation in points per game this year is 4.34 so 1.4/4.34 = 0.32 z-score which isn't much, and is consistent with average. You're right though that one more FG would make it around 1 z-score, which is worth something, but he doesn't have that extra FG. And it doesn't matter how this year compares to previous years as it's quite clear this year is an anomaly with COVID, so you have to keep the comparisons to 2020 ppg.

"cbrad wrote:

1.4 points is not remarkable. The standard deviation in points per game this year is 4.34 so 1.4/4.34 = 0.32 z-score which isn't much, and is consistent with average. You're right though that one more FG would make it around 1 z-score, which is worth something, but he doesn't have that extra FG. And it doesn't matter how this year compares to previous years as it's quite clear this year is an anomaly with COVID, so you have to keep the comparisons to 2020 ppg.

So basically your complaining that Chan's system didn't score us one more field goal this year.

And this years scoring is relevant. His system has been able to beat the best scoring average ever. The majority of the league hasn't done that.

"Finatik wrote:

So basically your complaining that Chan's system didn't score us one more field goal this year.

And this years scoring is relevant. His system has been able to beat the best scoring average ever. The majority of the league hasn't done that.

?? First of all it's one more FG per game this year. And second of all 25 out of 32 teams are beating your 22.5 ppg:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

So if you think being in the top 25 is something special (i.e., being below average is special), then sure compare to previous years. No, this year is an anomaly and you should not be comparing ppg this year to previous years without adjusting.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

That said from 56 yards I'm actually less concerned with putting the ball in the center than I am picking up a few more yards.

It's a good thing you weren't the one kicking it then! When your kicker is perfect on the year, you generally put the ball exactly where he wants you to put the ball.

"Finatik wrote:

The majority of the league hasn't done that.

No, only half the league hasn't done that. Hence the term "average".

"KeyFin wrote:

It's a good thing you weren't the one kicking it then! When your kicker is perfect on the year, you generally put the ball exactly where he wants you to put the ball.

Well to be fair we dont know he would have missed it from the left or right hash lol

Alls well that ends well though in this case. We got the three points.

I think Gailey/Tua is a great pairing for the time being. All of this points upwards for Tua's development. Ten years from now, he's going to fondly remember learning from coaches like Gailey and player coaches like Fitz. Hell, it could eventually be something we are all talking about when the day comes where we are all looking back on Tuas career and reminiscing about the glory days of the 2020's.
Back to Gailey, he is an older coach at this point. I remember some people were concerned about that? Back in the day it wasn't uncommon to see 65-70 year old coaches, but these days, they are a lot younger for some reason. Still, Gailey having the mileage and experience that he has is definitely going to help a player like Tua. Tua is a humble young man from everything I have seen of him. He's most likely more than respectful and willing to soak up any knowledge he can gain right now. It's a great pairing for the time being.

"cbrad wrote:

?? First of all it's one more FG per game this year. And second of all 25 out of 32 teams are beating your 22.5 ppg:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

So if you think being in the top 25 is something special (i.e., being below average is special), then sure compare to previous years. No, this year is an anomaly and you should not be comparing ppg this year to previous years without adjusting.

I looked at total points for. Just adding 3 points get's the Dolphins to the top 10. So were 3 points out from top 10 in a high scoring year. So yeah that is something special.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/index.htm

You look at PPG. PPG average if you don't account for strength of schedule is suspect IMO. Neither one means doodlysquat. And it doesn't take into account points scored by just the offense. But that doesn't take into account going conservative with a lead or at the end of a game. Stats can be sliced and diced to however the slicer wants them to be presented. I had a discussion about 6 sigma charts today and what a pile of crap it is. Our process is so tight and 3simga so far away from the specification limits that when one point is "out of control" the QE wanted me to take a look at it. WHY. Avg. is .04mm. It's .015mm out of the control limits but 4mm away from the spec limit. Waste of time. I deal with a bunch of stat heads that don't understand it's just theoretical sometimes and in the real world I'm not spending my time on that. Had a huge discussion on it with a Phd in Stats. He couldn't actually run anything on the floor and make a profit he's so stuck in analysis paralysis.

But I do like what you do. I like the thoroughness of it in comparing previous years since the games so different and trying to make it apple to apples. But one field goal to be in the top ten of scoring is just like that .02mm IMO.

"Finatik wrote:

I looked at total points for. Just adding 3 points get's the Dolphins to the top 10. So were 3 points out from top 10 in a high scoring year. So yeah that is something special.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/index.htm

We're talking about points scored pre-Tua. You're looking at stats WITH Tua there. We were ranked around average pre-Tua. And you need to look at points per game, not total points since not all teams played the same number of games.

"Finatik wrote:

You look at PPG. PPG average if you don't account for strength of schedule is suspect IMO. Neither one means doodlysquat. And it doesn't take into account points scored by just the offense. But that doesn't take into account going conservative with a lead or at the end of a game. Stats can be sliced and diced to however the slicer wants them to be presented.

Points per game is correlated with win% at 0.7515 across NFL history, so there's no good argument to dismiss such a stat without adjusting for anything you can think of that might matter. Also, given the small sample size here, "adjusting" for the things you mention would likely introduce more error into the estimates than increase overall predictive power.

As far as slicing and dicing stats any way you want, sure you can do that, but you can't convince experts of anything and everything you want through sliced and diced stats. You'll have to do the analysis right, or at least close enough to right, to convince experts your result is valid.

"Finatik wrote:

I had a discussion about 6 sigma charts today and what a pile of crap it is. Our process is so tight and 3simga so far away from the specification limits that when one point is "out of control" the QE wanted me to take a look at it. WHY. Avg. is .04mm. It's .015mm out of the control limits but 4mm away from the spec limit. Waste of time. I deal with a bunch of stat heads that don't understand it's just theoretical sometimes and in the real world I'm not spending my time on that. Had a huge discussion on it with a Phd in Stats. He couldn't actually run anything on the floor and make a profit he's so stuck in analysis paralysis.

People have different abilities. Having a PhD on its own doesn't tell you much. Most statistics PhD's can apply known statistical methodologies, but once you point out the assumptions in some statistical test don't apply in a particular case, the great majority can't modify the math to develop a more appropriate test.

"Finatik wrote:

But I do like what you do. I like the thoroughness of it in comparing previous years since the games so different and trying to make it apple to apples. But one field goal to be in the top ten of scoring is just like that .02mm IMO.

One FG per game, basically 3 TD's if you're talking about pre-Tua. This isn't that easy given how far up/down the rankings you'd go if you could do that.

"cbrad wrote:

We scored an average of 26.7 points per game pre-Tua. The league average is 25.3. That's only marginally above average. Here, take a look at Gailey's history:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/GailCh0.htm

Mediocre overall, but clearly trending downwards over his career in terms of offensive points scored. Watch how those rankings suddenly vault up with Tua (a prediction I'm making) and you'll see what I'm talking about.

Your league average stat is extremely misleading. Of the 32 teams in the league, only 9 other teams scored more point per game on average. That means we were and still are out scoring the other 22 remaining teams.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Your league average stat is extremely misleading. Of the 32 teams in the league, only 9 other teams scored more point per game on average. That means we were and still are out scoring the other 22 remaining teams.

?? There were 14 teams that scored more than the pre-Tua average of 26.7:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

Where are you getting this information from anyway? You should post a link so we can see if the stats in the link are the problem or it's your interpretation.

"cbrad wrote:

?? There were 14 teams that scored more than the pre-Tua average of 26.7:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

Where are you getting this information from anyway? You should post a link so we can see if the stats in the link are the problem or it's your interpretation.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?sort=ptsgm

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?sort=ptsgm

That's identical to the list I linked to. So you just counted wrong. There are 14 teams above 26.7.

"cbrad wrote:

That's identical to the list I linked to. So you just counted wrong. There are 14 teams above 26.7.

You need to re-sort. There are only 9 teams scoring more points per game than us...and technically, Tampa Bay has the same points per game average than us.