He hit on Holland and Phillips for sure. As for Waddle, he is a very good player, but not worth the two 1st rounders we gave up to get him. We could have stayed at 12, kept our picks, and stil picked up waddle or another very good player.

Overall, I think Grier's drafting and personel management record is abysmall.

His misses greatly outnumber his hits.

 

2021 is turning out to be a fantastic draft. It's really irrelevant what we gave up for Waddle. What matters is how many good players you get from the draft regardless of how you did it (even including luck hitting on low rounders), and 3 good/very good players is fantastic. Problem for Grier is that 2021 looks like an anomaly.

However, hitting on the QB is massive, and needing help on the OL is really fortunate because not every position is equally likely to bust. According to the following link OL is by far the safest in the 1st round with over 80% becoming consistent starters, and 70% from the 2nd round becoming consistent starters. So the future looks bright even with Grier as GM as long as Tua keeps improving.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Copying the stats for finding consistent starters from that link here:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

phillips has really come on in recent weeks...I hope it continues.

 

This "funny math" has been driving me nuts for months now.

• We had 1 pick, and traded it for 3 picks. (1 + 1 + 1 = 3)
• Then we traded two of those picks to move back up. We gained a pick back though, so: (3 - 2 + 1 = 2)
• So we had one pick, then three, and then we had two picks. (still 3 - 1 = 2)
• We took Waddle for one pick. (2 - 1 = 1)
• We still have one pick next year. (1 = 1)

To summarize the math, we started with one 1st rounder and ended with Waddle and a 1st rounder in 2023. We DID NOT pay two first round picks for Waddle- we basically got him for free by deferring our 2021 pick to 2023. Please stop this insanity!

 

2 picks possibly in the teens for Waddle doesn't seem so bad now. This offense would be real ugly without him.

 

This is my argument against the move up to get Waddle. I think waddle is gonna be good. But I’m not willing to spend 2 top 12 picks for any WR. We could have still got him at 12 or Smith. I think Waddle has the edge at this point but Smith looks good too. Then you have 2 first round picks this year with a lot of good OL and pass rushers.

In terms of your original post, I agree. Our first 3 players look like they will make some pro bowls. I think Liam will be decent too, he’s just playing out of position because Austin Jackson sucks so bad.

I just hope when we finally get Dieter back, we will block a little better and have all healthy WR’s, so we can see what Tua really can do.

 

I can come up with several, I would trade him for Jamar Chase straight up. Waddle is good, but he is just a very good slot receiver. He does not play very well on the boundary and is not a guy who you can designate as your WR1.

 

You bring up a good point, if you hit 50% on your first rounders, the other 1st could have been a miss and Waddle could very well be a home run. If you told me for every 2 1st round picks, 1 is an all-pro player and the other is a bust, I’d take that. It’s really early but Phillips, Waddle and Holland look like they at least have the potential.

It was just such a deep WR draft and man what would this team look like with Rashawn Slater, a legit franchise LT. But I’m not gonna complain when 3 of your picks are home runs.

At this point, we need to start drafting more OL to fix this mess and a Cb to replace Jones.

 

Devante Parker is every Dolphins fans favorite number one receiver. Do you know how many times he's had 137 yards in a game?

Twice.

 

I would love to see us draft Tyler Linderbaum OC out of Iowa and then sign a mid tier LT.

Id be happy with:
LT- Cam Robinson
LG- Davis
C- Linderbaum
RG- Hunt
RT- Eichenberg

That line could be good or do you back up the brinks truck for Armstead and potentially have a really good OL.

 

Let’s see how he develops he’s playing bad teams right now

 

Yes they should bench him until they play good teams. No good experience can come from this.

 

Grier's death has been greatly exaggerated! - LOL

 

lol not what I meant or said I’m not overacting to playing bad teams I want to see them progress against top teams also. Just trying to prevent people from saying next Marino next God let just chill this team has issues that get exposed against good teams

 

Funny math? Come on now... 1(6th) - 2(12th and 2022 1st) = -1. We didn't get anyone for free...

 

We got Waddle and a 2023 1st rounder off trading that single pick. People can twist the details all the want, but we ultimately moved back three spots, got the player we wanted and got another 1st rounder out of it.

 

You're evaluating it in a vacuum. We would have been better off staying at #3, or keeping the big haul of picks we got for trading down to #12. Trading back up to #6 for Waddle was a stupid move.

 

They would have taken Waddle at 3. I know you are going to say they shouldn't have but that is who they wanted. And if they had taken someone else at 3 you would be dunking on them as whoever that ended up being would be would probably look worse here than Waddle does.

Best move would have been staying at 12 and making the move on draft day as possibly settling for Smith shouldn't have scared them. Worse move is staying at 3.

 

I didn’t love the move either but at least he nailed the picks. That’s an improvement for me but maybe my expectations are really low for Grier.

Would I rather have Parsons/Moore, Slater/Phillips or Slater/Moore and an additional 1st this year, probably, but I’m not gonna nit pick this draft anymore.

 

Zero percent hit chance taking a RB in round 7...that makes me leery since that's where we drafted Gaskin and he's clearly a starter. Maybe the chart is mostly accurate but that immediately jumped out at me.

 

They're defining "hit" as starting at least half of your playing career. Gaskin has started only 16 out of 44 possible games so Gaskin isn't an exception yet. Having said that I'm sure that with large enough sample size nothing is truly 0%. They looked over a 10 year period, which is pretty large but not large enough so that nothing is 0%.

 

I'm not a fan of Grier overall but the talk about staying at 12 is theoretical only. I forget where but it was made clear that the only reason they moved down to twelve was because they had a path to move back up to six. They wouldn't have made the move down if they couldn't come back up. The whole thing was a 'package deal' of sorts. It should be seen as only one move.

 

Grier has had some ups and downs, I'm fine with us keeping him as long as we get someone competent to coach/draft Olinemen. Grier is a moron when it comes to drafting Olinemen, he's awful at it. Its a massive issue. He makes some real head scratching picks. Hunter Long? A TE that doesn't even see the field at one of our deepest positions with a 3rd round pick? I mean that was a weird pick when it happened but to have the guy not even active most weeks, I mean....woof. We might be better off moving Grier up and getting a GM that has worked with teams that have built good Olines consistently to scout/draft those guys. I don't agree with Grier's philosophy on the RB position either, this team would be vastly different with a Jonathon Taylor on it.

 

The behind the scenes issues are the bigger potential problem. We will likely never know but whoever made Tua the starter over Fitz without telling the OC made a huge mistake. In addition, what's going on with the staff not sticking around?

If Grier has anything to do with this and making the Dolphins a place where good coaches don't want to be then his ability to draft is irrelevant. If not, then whoever is behind that stuff needs to be dealt with.

 

Okay, that makes more sense. Gaskin has been our clear #1 for the past three seasons, but he was also out hurt for a big stretch last year. Without the injury he would have hit above the 50% threshold, but I do understand why they did it that way. Too much to comb through if you're going to check every player for dressed-games, IR, etc.

Anyway, that means I can have faith in that chart once again- thanks!

 

The best possible path forward is with Flores being the long-term answer. So for me, I'm hoping we don't have to hire a new head coach next season and coordinators want to come to Miami after seeing us finish strong two seasons in a row. While I agree with you that there are front-office problems, winning really does cure all.

A playoff berth and making a little noise in the post-season would go a really long way in helping this club develop long-term.

 

Grier has to go. I don't know how you guys are still on the fence about him. Yeah it seems like he had a good draft last year, but this comes after years of terrible drafting and personnel decisions, the tua/Watson drama, plus the toxic front office culture that has coaches not wanting to come here.

There should be no question at this point that Grier is the biggest problem we have in the organization.

 

Let's wait and see how the season ends. If we end 9-8 or better we don't need another coach, and if Tua ends above average performance-wise there's no reason to seek another QB for at least one more year. The only issues then become Grier's drafting ability in 2022 and fixing the OL. Important issues sure, but much less important than finding the right HC and QB. Hit on those two and you have some time to fix the rest of the team. So I'd wait to pass judgment on Grier until after this season is over.

 

The entire organization is guilty with the Watson stuff and you guys want the coaching situation to be his fault but you don't have evidence to make his fault.

Griers real failure is the offensive line and rolling the dice on two injury prone receivers in a crucial year for Tua. Focus on real stuff not fan fiction.

 

I’ve been very critical of Grier and there have been several moves I don’t like including cutting Flowers, Van Noy and Karras.

Objectively looking at the last 4 drafts(1st rounds):
2021-
Waddle- home run
Phillips- hit with home run potential
Holland- home run
Eichenberg- starter
Long- unknown
2020-
Tua- starter with injury issues, could be good but not a home run
Jackson- complete bust
Noah I- complete bust
Davis- good starter
Hunt- starter with potential
Jones- depth to potential starter
2019-
Wilkins- starter who’s having his best year
Dieter- was our best OL before injury
AVG- 5th rounder solid starter
2018-
Minkah- home run for another team, pick wasted
Gesicki- good starter
Baker- starter

so if we’re looking at hit rates:
1st round- 5/7 or 71.4%
2nd round- 4/5 or 80%, I think will be a 5/5 but Liam is really struggling but playing out of position
3rd- 3/4 ie 75%

I know the 2017 draft was a complete bust and we can’t forget that but I’d say his hit rate is pretty good over the last 4 years.

 

His first round really couldn't have been better. Jaelan Phillips is having himself a really good season.

 

I think how the rest of the year plays out says everything, right now we are playing well, coaching well and Tua looks like a potential franchise Qb. That is enough to save his job. IF we fall apart then he probably goes. At the end of the day, I just want someone in the mix that can fix the oline.

 

Captain Hindsight sees Herbert and Tua and claims that Grier should have taken Herbert.

With some proper scrutiny over the past few weeks, short of a stellar showing against an injured Steeler team, Herbert has been mediocre recently.

Tua is a smart player, he's accurate, and he has some mobility. He's kind of like a more accurate Ryan Tannehill without the back breaking INTs.