Worried that he'll be limited to deep routes and other attempts at the big play for a while. His participation in any team work since the end of last season has been minimal.

 

One of the biggest mistakes in 2024 was moving away from the deep ball. McD better not make that same mistake again. That was arguably one of the most important reasons we fell from being the #2 offense to #22. So if all Hill can do is be a realistic deep ball threat, then that's fine. But we need to keep throwing it deep (and improve the run game) to make the deep ball a real threat even if it's not the centerpiece of the offense.

 

I strongly and passionately disagree. I think that the necessary pivot to what they did once Tua was back last season between Weeks 8-16 was terrific. The problem was mostly blocking and overall health. With everyone on the field ready to go at full strength, I really want to see them run the ball more and spread it around, only going deep when its wide open due to a blown coverage or play action.

 

I've said it before but I think McD inability to adapt is the biggest concern. Hope this year shows he can adapt (finally).

 

Just get the ball to whoever is most open, keep moving the chains, and keep Tua healthy. Its all we need.

 

It's important to note though that you care a lot about style even if the style isn't best for improving win%. Losing the deep threat was not helpful for increasing our win%.

 

I care about doing what it takes to move the football effectively and hold onto the ball. Deep shots are risky and dangerous, and I strongly feel that they need to be a minor part of the offense.

 

They got away from it the deep ball because they couldn't run the ball to set it up.

A hopefully competent offensive line will make the running game look dangerous again and teams will have to work to stop it which will open up shots.

 

No that mentality is the problem. In 2022 we didn't have a good running game. We were below average in rushing Y/A, rushing yards and #31 in rushing attempts, yet had a healthy deep ball threat. Part of that was novelty, but the point is you don't first wait to see whether the running game is working before throwing deep. Throwing deep should be an integral part of play calling. McD simply couldn't adapt when defenses adapted, and there's no excuse for that.

 

Yeah they adapted by taking away deep shots and knowing the team can't punish them with runs and also can't pass block for anything that takes more 1.3 seconds.

Yeah McDaniel didn't adapt either but that line was too terrible to actually do anything with anyway. Its not like they don't want to throw deep.

 

There are many teams with bad pass blocking that have good passing games. Usually that requires a good QB of course. Cinci is a great example. Tua has some key strengths that should enable a good mid/deep ball passing game even with a poor pass blocking OL, like quick release + accuracy. There's no excuse for just giving up on the deep ball like McD did last year. We need better play calling and not just give up in favor of a dink and dunk offense.

 

Defenses adapted, playing safeties high and keeping everything in front. We just struggled to adapt to that, which would have been a strong running game to force safeties back up to the box, in large part because our OL was horrendous. They both failed to open holes in the running game despite light boxes and also failed to protect our QBs even against light pass rushes. We should hopefully be better this year, though depth still remains perilously thin, even with Lamm coming back into the fold.

There were also more than a few games where we got down early and multiple scores. That again forces us into certain looks and modes and makes the offense more predictable and played against our strength. Our secondary looks ... rough to say the least. But if our DL can keep some pressure on the D as a whole can generally keep scores close it should help the offense greatly.

Cinci has had some success, but they missed the playoffs and Burrow has taken an absolute beating. While I wish we had been able to snag Chase and Burrow instead of them, they are taking a big risk in being so bad in the OL.

 

They went to the SB and then the Conference Championships the year after. That's a lot of success and it was primarily due to their offense. They did miss the playoffs last year, but that wasn't due to their offense which was #6 in points scored with Burrow at #3 in passer rating despite having one of the worst pass blocking OLs in the league (#32 according to PBWR). Their defense was #25 in points allowed. You're right about the risk of Burrow getting hurt again due to their OL, but if that team wants to win the SB they need to prioritize their defense, not OL.

 

Their offense is obviously their strength and primarily Burrow/Chase combo with heavy contribution from Higgins and Brown. It's an elite offense in that regard and as long as Burrow is healthy he gives them a punchers chance.

But both long and short term, exposing him to the beating he is getting is bad. It increases the risk he gets hurt in the short term (and he's had some significant ones) and it increases the chance he diminishes quickly. Maybe it doesn't happen, but you're betting 50 million plus on it.

As for the Super Bowl, they aren't real contenders to me. It's a facially cheap organization. They caught fire one year with Burrow on a rookie deal and got to the SB. Now that they are paying people, you can see their cap "management" and penny-pinching at work. They will be fun and exciting, but a legit contender is hard to see.

 

Yeah I agree. They'll be contending for a WC spot even with a healthy Burrow because of their weak defense.

 

Last season, in the games that Tua played, if you were to extrapolate the numbers to 17 games would have meant the #10 team in the league in points and #11 in yardage. Better on a per game basis than the Chargers and Chiefs in scoring, and just behind Buffalo in yardage, while ahead of teams like KC and MIN.

In spite of all of the problems that they faced and injuries that they suffered, they patched together something that was often quite effective, scoring 27+ points in six out of nine games in the stretch after he returned, and only lost two of those games on late collapses by the defense. I believe that McDaniel and the coaches not only learned some important lessons, but hopefully decided to check their egos, and hopefully are a lot more willing to simply do what it takes to be a smart offense this year.

 

Yeah, but that was a huge drop from the year before: #2 in points and #1 in yardage. And I think lack of the deep ball threat (i.e., McD's lack of ability to adapt like some other coaches can) had a great deal to do with that.