Agree or disagree, Ryan Tannehill is a good QB, his average stats don't lie. This is what you can expect from him on a a yearly basis:
4000 yrds, 62.7 comp%, 24 TD, 13 INT
(Yearly average of 4 seasons, throwing out his rookie year and takes the 8 games after the first five of last season to average into a full year.)
That's good enough to help guide your teams to the playoffs once in a while, but not the kind of stats that make you a perennial contender and win a few SB's along the way in this modern day age of football.
Tannehill needs to take the step to being a great QB, which I define as posting at least 3 franchise years, using D. Brees and P. Manning as the gold standard (I discounted Bree's career in SD):
Brees: 4800 yards, 35 TD, 15 INT, 67.8% cpmpl%
Manning 4200 yards, 31 TD, 12 INT, 65.3% cpmpl%
Brees' is the benchmark for an exceptional Franchise Year, Manning's the lowest possible to qualify as such.
- Aaron Rodgers had 4 such seasons and won the SB 0 times when he did. He just missed the mark in 2010 where he did win one.
- Brees has had 9 and won one SB
- Brady has had 4 and won 0 SB's, but had a near miss in 2014 and won one.
- Manning had 8 and won 1 SB with it.
The question is can Tannehill put up such numbers? On the surface, you would certainly think so. He has a glut of weapons and an offensive guru for a coach. But will he?
In trying to answer that question, I wracked my brain to try and figure how much blame could be assigned to him for an atrocious career sack rate of one per every 13 pass attempts. After the first 5 games of last year it improved to 1 in 17, but that's still atrocious compared to Brady's career ave of 1 in 26 (Manning and Marino 1-30). To some degree, Tannehill has poor pocket awareness, but I couldn't assign it a percentage. The line gets at least 50 percent of the blame, but how much went on game planning and missed assignments? Or the go-go,go vanilla offense Philbin ran?
And all of that led to the real X-FACTOR on whether he will or won't. How well Tannehill can read the defense pre-snap and audible. He's a smart guy and I would at times argue too smart, making him too robotic and not feeling the game around him, so it shouldn't be a problem (Much like Manning and the complete opposite of Marino). Except for one thing. Until last year, he's never been asked to. If you're not allowed to audible, you don't need to make pre-snap reads. And that's what this season comes down to, barring injuries.
I'm thinking he'll be just fine and put up this season.
4500 yrds, 67.0 comp%, 39 TDS, 10 INT
Page 1 of 6
-
-
OK.. with 321 completions in 479 attempts with 4500 yards, 39 TD's and 10 INT's you get a passer rating of..
115.5!!!!
Do you realize that this would put Tannehil at #6 ALL TIME for single season passer rating??
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_single_season.htm
Yeah.. I think this is very unrealistic.
Realistic and good enough is hoping for mid-to-high 90's average passer rating next year from Tannehill. That should put him in the lower part of top 10 among QB's and that would be a great sign given what he's done so far. -
-
I do think Tannehill is going to take the "next step" this season, and he'll surprise a lot of people in the process. Everything seems to be coming together for him at the right time: a second year in a right-minded coaches system, an abundance of offensive firepower, and Tannehill's own personal growth as a (soon-to-be) 29 year-old passer, which, historically, is a good age for QB's.
It might also be worth noting that severe injuries sometimes turn a player into an even better one once recovered; this doesn't apply to everyone, given the severity of the injury and said player's own personal drive, but I have a feeling Tannehill is one who will come back stronger than before.
31 TD's, 9 INT's, 4,400 YDS, 68.0%, and roughly a 103 QBR.zatrex99 and Tin Indian like this. -
Another Tannehill thread!
Look, Miami's run game has the potential to bury any "Fantasy Pass Stats," however, In Gase's offense (combined with the uncertainty of the defense), RT needs to show improvement in his stats. With points and converted 3rd downs, comes the stats. I see no reason why he shouldn't have at least 30 TD's and less than 10 INT's. -
Tin Indian and Finster like this.
-
For the last 3 years Tannehill has shown he can be a 100 rated passer for slices of up to half a season or so, depending ng on exactly how you slice the data.
I believe he has the ability to be a 100 rated passer for a whole season..
I think s 100 passer rating season is a reasonable expectation for Tannehill, based on his previous performance and my expectation of an improved team performance and Gase growing into his role.
However I view Him as closer to a Bob Griese type QB who can produce very good efficiency stats instead of a Dan Marino type who can produce great volume stats.
I think 4,000 yards and a 30-10 TD-int ratio is about the maximum you can expect from Tannehill. In fact if the yards in particular go up I'll be worried because it will probably be because our running game has collapsed and I don't see Tannehill as the type of QB who can reliably operate at high efficiency without a run game drawing some defenders into the box.Last edited: Jun 12, 2017 -
-
With the extrapolated number of attempts and the predicted stats from zatrex99 you get 115.5 rating which is unrealistic to predict really for any QB. I mean it's rare anyone performs at that level (only 5 in all of NFL history ever did that).
If you extrapolate Tannehill's actual stats from 13 games to 16 games you get the exact same passer rating he had last year: 93.5, not 115.5.Bpk likes this. -
Let me apologize. I wasn't trying to inflame the message board, I'm simply trying to project what Tannehill could do under Gase in year 2 and what x-factor may keep him from doing so.
I chopped off the first five games from last year and then averaged his last 8 into 16 because after the first five games, Gase simplified the offense for him, which resulted in better protection. That's no reflection on Tannehill, but the rest of the offense learning the offense. -
It's all about the TDs, lol, but it's true, and of course TD/INT ratio.
If you're going to throw 12 INTs, then you need 30 TDs to balance that out, which means he'd have to raise his TD%.
If you're going to throw 24-27 TDs, your INTs have to be single digits, so he'd have to lower his INT %.
For 20 mil, you should be getting one of those 2 options, just saying, that should be the expectation, and I don't think i'm asking for the world either. -
I hate any "statistics" that start with, "Well, throw out this and that, plus pretend this didn't happen...." Tannehill doesn't need anyone's excuses or exemptions...that's what you do when you don't think you have nothing to improve on and you want to stay mediocre. For instance, let's throw out Moore's worst game last season and "poof", he was the best QB in the league.
I do think that Tannehill will have his best year ever in 2017 and I am very excited to see him in action. What I'm not looking forward to is all the excuses when he takes a sack, throws a pick or misses a receiver. Those things happen and there are no excuses necessary....that's just life in the NFL. Every play is a learning experience. -
-
-
I don't think the overwhelming majority of anything was unavoidable either. He's been sacked 213 times over five years....the overwhelming majority would mean 180+ never gave him a chance to move. That's just not the case. Did the line suck at times? Yes. Did Tannehill freeze at times or run straight into the tackle? Yes. This isn't a situation where one person is 100% at fault 213 times and someone else is blameless.
For instance, Gase said his #1 priority last year with Tannehill was his footwork in the pocket. Why would he say that if none of the sacks were Tannehill's fault? And why did Tannehill turn in his lowest sack rate ever in 2016 (29 sacks)....exactly half of his worst showing in 2013 (58 sacks)? Our line played their worst ever in games 3, 4, and 5...yet RT had his best season ever in that regard? It is very obvious that he improved in navigating the pocket, rolling away from pressure, not freezing when a big hit was coming, etc.
And since both the head coach and Tannehill personally said that it was a priority last off-season, I'm not sure what else there is to say. The vast majority of his sacks resulted from bad blocking and bad movement from Tannehill...it was a group effort.
As far as the completion percentage goes, just look at the distance per throw. The two stats go together to form a complete picture- Pennington has an awesome completion percentage as well. And while throwing a high number of screens isn't a bad thing (especially when it opens up the deep ball like in 2016), it's not an overall indication of performance. -
-
Yeah we've seen years of excuses for RT. Everything from not good enough coaching, OL, running game, defense, etc... Thing is, RT isn't the kind of QB that can overcome bad surroundings as well as some other QB's like Marino could.
Are the excuses justified? Depends on your expectations.
On one hand, there's enough precedence of QB's overcoming bad surroundings that it's justified to put more blame on Tannehill if you use the same standards across all QB's. On the other hand, Tannehill happens to be the type of QB that needs his surroundings to be decent before he can show he's consistently above average.
So I agree with KeyFin that at least over a full season one should not use "what if" stats and that one should use stats with no excuses attached. KeyFin is wrong about one point though: Matt Ryan was so good last year that the only way Moore is the best QB in the league is if you only take Moore's best 2 performances (which first of all means you're removing half his data and second all means you're comparing a 2-game sample to a 16-game sample lol). -
Tannehill’s pocket presence “issues” have either been vastly overblown through his first five years - a product of having a less-than-stellar offensive line throughout that time - or it suddenly developed in 2016. Tannehill seems to know what to do in the pocket to avoid a sack, either by making the right read, moving the right way in the pocket/roll out, or getting rid of the ball on a throw away. Even as reporters continue to ask about how Tannehill can get better at avoiding sacks, Fahey demonstrates that, it does not seem to be on Miami’s quarterback nearly 97 percent of the time.
http://www.thephinsider.com/2017/5/...unavoidable-cian-fahey-quarterbacks-catalogue
That's "overwhelming".resnor likes this. -
For instance, the team comes up to the line and the safety has crept up showing blitz on the weak side. Who's primary responsibility is it to spot that? The QB. And maybe he spots it...that's not the point here. The point is that if that safety lays Tannehill out, it's automatically counted as an unavoidable sack in this formula....when it's actually the QB's fault TWICE (once for missing the blitz, the second time for not rolling out to the strong side when he does see it, throwing the ball away, running for yardage, etc.).
This guy is playing devil's advocate in a pretend scenario where everyone on offense is an all-star except the QB...that has no bearing on reality though.Last edited: Jun 12, 2017 -
-
I can quantify how good or bad a defense is by points allowed (or by other measures) and the running game by yards or yards per carry etc.. But what about OL, etc..? Sacks according to you guys tell only a portion of the story so that's dismissed. So what do we use?
Without such operational definitions there's no way to estimate how good or bad Tannehill's situation has been in comparison to others. It's all opinion.
With such definitions, I can at least extrapolate what adjustments we need to make to Tannehill's stats so that we can compare. So if you ever agree on which readily available stats to use to measure how good or bad an OL or coach is, I'd love to take a crack at the problem.. even if the definitions aren't perfect. -
Which QBs are you referencing? -
More recently, Luck hasn't had much luck in his surrounding cast either, etc.. What about Wilson and his OL? There are a lot of QB's that didn't have all 4 components at decent levels. -
For run blocking, we were graded on getting our bodies/shoulders on the proper side and then holding the block for 1-2 seconds. As an offensive guard, I'd hit the DL to push him towards the center, release and then pop the linebacker. The idea was that I should hit and release to keep moving downfield as the play advances, but you won't find pure numbers that can show you that. Run blocking is graded purely with the eyes past the initial block. Watch Pouncey....that's why people say he's so elite. He's amazing at the 2nd and 3rd level.
But even if you fired off and held the block for 1 second before getting beat on a run, it was considered a success on most plays (not on a delayed hand-off, screen pass, etc.). Because if that running back hasn't past you by the 1 second mark, then that's on them. So I guess you could start there.
Pass protection was the exact opposite because I didn't always know who I was blocking at the snap. For instance, I knew everyone I'd hit on a run play before the ball is snapped, but on pass protection all that goes out the window. I might initially be on the defender right in my face but if the LB crashes that A gap, then I release and try to engage him. If the LB blitzes the B gap, the tackle is supposed to release and pick it up or a RB steps into the hole. So there's a lot of variables there that the average person wouldn't get by watching the game live....it may look like the guard completely screwed up when he did exactly as he was supposed to do.
I honestly don't know how you grade that UNLESS a lineman engages and gets beat within the first 1.5 seconds. You'd have to know schemes, coverages, etc to know exactly who messed up in other scenarios and that's not always crystal clear. For instance, let's say a safety blitzes to the outside and the DT stunts around that way as well...the tackle is supposed to pop the outside guy and then slide down to the interior rusher. Then the RB has the outside person. Meanwhile, a linebacker is crashing the A gap on the opposite side. That's where the center goes as the guard blocks down, which means that the RB should pop that right-side DE since the TE released (since the tackle now has to block down as well). That RB is blocking the blitz on the left though which means the right side DE levels the QB untouched....and we say that the right tackle completely screwed up. In reality though, everyone did their job exactly as it was drawn up.
If the QB doesn't spot the blitz pre-snap and move his TE to that side, then the play is doomed before the snap. And in that case, the TE would hit the safety and release since he knows that the QB is going to be pressed for time. Or if it's a designated play for Stills, then maybe he holds the block. There are so many variables in play
So all I can tell you there is to look for a player engaging and holding the block for 1.5....and don't penalize him if he pops someone then blocks down. If the rusher beats the player to the inside then it's his fault...if he's beaten to the outside then someone else likely messed up. And if there's just too many bodies to block, then it's on the coaching and/or the QB for not getting out of that play or scrambling to make something out of a weakened secondary.
Can you quantify that with numbers though? It would take a heck of a lot of film watching.Last edited: Jun 12, 2017cbrad likes this. -
What QBs have faced all 4 of those things? Wilson had a great run game to support him, and a#1 ranked defense (I forgot that in my post).
Oooh, and lets add in that Tannehill was very raw, and everyone knee he was going to need more support than your usual 1st round pick. -
For example, people keep bringing up this idea that the running game was bad pre-2016. OK, do you guys realize we were ranked 12th in YPG and 2nd in YPC in rushing in 2014? That is the precise opposite of "bad". That's above average.
Oh, and we were ranked #7 and #8 in defense by points allowed in 2012 and 2013! We were top 10! So just given this little info how can one claim Tannehill had all 4 things going against him?Last edited: Jun 12, 2017 -
Unless you can accurately grade the linemen though, then you have no idea if it was a bad situation or not. Our eyes tell us that was the case for games 3-5 last year wen Tannehill was getting hit almost every play, and we have even more evidence when Gase fired two linemen on the spot. However, it's unfair to say that those linemen "always sucked" just like it's unfair to say "Tannehill has zero pocket presence". It was a combination of the two.
So if you can't grade that way, all you have left is an apples to apples comparison. Look at other teams who had perceived line problems and see how their QB's did. This is where our conversation always gets ugly, because the closest comparison is Seattle....great QB, lousy line that allows league-leading blown coverages. They were the league's worst 4 out of the past 5 years. In situations where Tannehill would freeze and brace for impact, Wilson would scramble. And make no mistake, Wilson was running for hi life way more than what should be acceptable in the NFL, so it's not fair to say that Tannehill (or any other QB) should be able to respond like that. It's probably Wilson's biggest strength.
But in an apples to apples comparison, Wilson came close to winning two Super Bowls behind a worse line than what we have in Miami.
What does that mean? I have no idea other than Wilson is amazing in avoiding pressure. I just don't see how you quantify that and apply it to the Dolphins....we didn't draft Tannehill for his escape abilities. Yet he sure did need it.Bpk likes this. -
And that would be sacks and sack percentages if we're talking pass protection. Maybe at some point I'll look at the history of the league to see how much we should decrement passer rating for each increase in sack percentage. That should at least give us some way of quantifying the effect of bad OL protection.
EDIT:
Just did that for 2012-2016. Quite surprised the relationship between sack% and passer rating is so weak. The average decrement over that 5 year period for 1% increase in sack% is -1.14 decrease in passer rating (2015 is really weird in fact that there is a positive relationship between sack% increase and passer rating lol.. thank guys like Russel Wilson for that).
So you only need to decrement passer rating by a few points in any year at most to adjust for sack%. That means either that sack% doesn't correlate well with a perfectly accurate measure of OL ability (possible) or that it does and that the QB is more responsible for sacks than one might think. Who knows..Last edited: Jun 12, 2017 -
-
-
So if we want to get really accurate, we'd have to compare the sacks on 3rd (and 4th) down to changes in QB rating. Then we'd have something where we know the game changed because of it.
That also brings me to a different point as well- that sacks measure the line's and the QB's ability equally. Because even if you're sacked on 1st down, it really comes down to what you do on the next play to turn the drive around. The better QB's will surely make up for the mistake while the lousy players will use it as a scapegoat. Unless the sack comes on 3rd (or 4th) down though, it doesn't solely define the drive. -
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk -
2012 was his rookie season under Philbin and RT was taught to be a robot and treated like a child (like the rest of the team) and the team rushing was below average. I think 20th in ypc.
2013, again Philbin and poor rushing.zatrex99 likes this.
Page 1 of 6