This is a deep draft and we have many holes. We need all the picks we can get so I believe the best option would be to trade down and get more picks in the second and third rounds that's where the meat of this draft will be.
I really don't see a whole lot of difference between the players who might be available at 22 and some of the second round guys. For example instead of getting lamp in the first I'd rather trade down and pick dion dawkins in the second plus pick up another 2nd or 3rd rounder.
Unless another tunsil situation happens where a sure top ten guy falls I say we trade down.
What do you think?
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Go and do the updated www.fanspeak.com draft sim. Use the CBS draft board. It's most likely the more realistic.
Anyhow, you'll see that at 22 there are many elite players still available. However, once you get to our 2nd round spot there are many very good, and maybe a few elite players. At our 3rd there are still some really good players, but no more elites. In the 4th (of course we don't have one) there are still really good players. 5th there are some really good up top, but good towards were we are picking.
Anyhow, the draft is deep. However, if we trade down from our 22nd we will miss out on a pretty close to sure elite player. -
Guys like taco charlton and forest lamp who would be available at 22 are not that much if at all better than for example dion Dawkins or jordan willis who would be available in the second.
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There are no "sure fire" elites at any pick. However, when projected out there are elite players going down into the top of the 2nd for this draft.
I just did the 1st round of a mock draft, using the CBS board. At our pick these are the players left. IMO, there are at least 12 "Elite" players left. For what it's worth, I think Willis has elite potential also, but he's ranked in the 60's on this board. I think he'll go higher.
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Here's some graphs showing Pro Bowl selection by draft pick as well as years as a starter by draft pick (1996-2008):
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/04/career-success-by-draft-order.html -
If you remember that was one of the things Jimmy Johnson was so great at and Belichik does it to an extent also. Jimmy's philosophy was to stack up on as many picks as possible and play the numbers game. The best players Jimmy ever drafted for us like Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, Sam Madison and Pat Surtain, were all 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks. He was terrible at picking first round talent (John Avery, Darryl Gardner), but great at stocking up on later picks and hitting on some gems.
Sent from my F3111 using Tapatalkjazz likes this. -
Great post, Hitman.
I think we should certainly be openminded to moving down. As many posters have accurately stated, there really should be some unusually good talent at the 22 spot. I certainly would not want to give an elite talent at quite likely a need position to pick up a 5th round pick (I see a 5 as most likely a depth guy). If a team offered a 4th for us to move down a few spots with still a lot of talent on the board, that may be a bit more enticing.
Now, let me pose a more juicy proposition for you guys. I really think that the QB class is weak this year, and there is a more than reasonable chance that by the time Miami is picking, only one QB may have been taken. Three spots after we pick, the Texans pick, and there is a strong likelihood that they will be looking to take a QB. It is entirely possible that teams that may have passed up on a QB (Browns, Jets, 49ers, Bears, Bills) or teams looking to find "the next guy" (Steelers, Chiefs, Cardinals, Saints, Giants ~outside chance) could come calling. Swapping with a team with a high second round pick could net a hefty return, and although elite talent may not be there, good talent will still be there. Furthermore, if we acquire a 1st or 2nd round from one of those bad teams, it is entirely likely that it could be an early pick next year.
And now for a curveball within a curveball - Usually the notion of helping out your division foes in terms a trade is frowned upon, but in all honesty, I really don't think that these QBs are franchise QBs. I almost think that we further sabotaging them by letting them dig their own graves.
Here is the long answer to your short question: I would definitely consider moving back, but I certainly do not think that we should prioritize moving back. -
at 22, Miami could be in a spot where a team wants to move up, esp to get a qb. However, if we move down, I'd rather stay in late rd one or early two and get less compensation that more diluted picks later in 2nd and 3rd.
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Similar for all the other players on that list would rather trade down for more picks and get similar talents in the second and third.
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danmarino likes this.
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Maybe take both Taco Charlton and TJ Watt and supercharge the D Line???? -
I wouldn't trade down from our 1st, but I would with nearly every other pick we have. -
danmarino likes this.
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While I do love Willis, and think he has the ability to be elite, I think Barnett is less of a risk and also elite. I like Budda too. -
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However, I think Peppers can be just as good, but cover better and blitz better. I think he can be a great return man. I think he can cover the slot better. I think he can cover Gronk. I think he can play a few offensive plays to throw in a wrinkle.
Put that guy out there and he will confuse the QB and scare the WR's. He's who I hope we pick. -
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smahtaz likes this. -
ripper1961 and djphinfan like this.
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Zach Cunningham...Ruben Foster...Hassan Reddick...
If one of those three are there I don't trade down..if their gone, I'm with ya, trade down and get a TJ watt in the late first, then maybe pick up A feeny at guard and Tabor at corner with your accrued assests. -
Tin Indian and Fin D like this.
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Zack is the best of the three in my opinion but he also has some issues in that he lacks some change of direction quickness and lacks top speed for a linebacker.
I would still rather trade down till the end of the first or early second in exchange for an extra second and third rounder.
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Also our safeties are not completely interchangeable. We do play coverages where they are, but we also play alot of high/low safety coverages with a free safety high and reshad in the box. You will hardly ever see rashad playing center field which is why we need a true free safety with great range who can do that.
Sent from my F3111 using TapatalkFinster likes this. -
My concern with that, is the Lions picking ahead of us with their obvious needs at LB and pass rush help too. I could see them start to panic and jump ahead of Detroit to pick one. -
I agree that Zach has the best upside..
Don't agree that foster is not worth the 22nd pick..the dude is all football and I've heard that his incident at the combine is not looked at as a negative, this dude is a tough mother grabber..he no Likey people in the other uniform, or people in general, I hear he just wants to play football and destroy you.I like that, let Suh and Wake deal with him..
Hassan is a projection of course but he also has upside projection to effect the game on multiple levels, foster and Cunningham don't know how to rush the passer, Reddick does..
Zach does lack that top gear to get to the edge, and it does show up sometimes, but with his outstanding skillset and instincts I can deal.Rickysabeast and danmarino like this. -
That "fullback" has great hands and is great for short yard situations. He'd also tear up special teams. Bring him in to "block" and then let him out into the flat and he'd get you yards. -
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Elite, is the best. If you start getting more than 2-4 then you're not in elite anymore. Who is the best prospect in the draft? Myles Garret most people would say? Well anyone you call elite, needs to be projected to be as good or very nearly as good. So at 22 you're saying there are still 12 players that you project to be as good as Garrett?
Elite. You take the best player, then the group with hardly any separation behind him. That's it. Anything else and you're misusing the term. -
It's similar to outfielders in baseball, there are right and left fielders who could play center field, but are better as right or left fielders because of their strong arms or speed and range limitations.
Point is Jabrill Peppers is not a natural free safety and that is where we need him. We would be playing him out of position. The top natural free safeties in this draft are malik hooker, budda baker, and marcus williams in that order. Then you have obi Melifonwu and Josh Jones who can play both strong and free and have experience doing both, wheras Jabrill Peppers is more of a strong safety nickel linebacker tweener.
I would not spend our 22nd pick on Jabrill, that's just my opinion.
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Last edited: Apr 19, 2017
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