Tannehill will make the jump many thought Henne was going to make.

 

Tannehill > First year as starter: 16 games / 282 attempts / 484 completions / 58.3% / 3294YDS / 12TD / 13INT.
Henne ----> First year as starter: 14 games / 274 attempts / 451 completions / 60.8% / 2878YDS / 12TD / 14INT.

Now someone please tell me, why the blind faith in Tannehill? I've watched EVERY Dolphins game from this past season on NFL Gamepass in the last few weeks. I didn't see anything spectacular from Tannehill. I saw some spectacular CATCHES in coverage by Bess and Hartline. But no "go for the jugular" drives. No "two minute drill comebacks". A lot of "no where near the target" passes. Maybe it's just me. I've been watching the Dolphins since 1972. Seen the QB's come, seen the QB's go. This one, I am not sold on.

 

I don't see a 2:1 ratio of TD:INT, but i expect >1. If we get a 4th weapon like Austin or Eifert, then I predict a 1.7:1 ratio iwth >20 TDs.

 

Tannehill did that as a true rookie and with only 19 starts under his belt.

 

I think you're saturated with cynicism (rightfully so) based on the last 15 years of incredible mediocrity at the position. I saw a very raw QB as well, but I also saw a lot of potential.
I see a QB that has potential, but has realistic potential to take the next step over the next few years to become a top 10 QB. I don't see him becoming elite, but if you can protect him and give him weapons, he has the potential to be very good.

 

FTR College #s:

[table="width: 600, class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]Player[/td]
[td]Cmp[/td]
[td]Att[/td]
[td]%[/td]
[td]Yds[/td]
[td]TD[/td]
[td]INT[/td]
[td]Rate[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]A. Rodgers[/td]
[td]424[/td]
[td]665[/td]
[td]63.8[/td]
[td]5469[/td]
[td]43[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td]150.3[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]R. Tannehill[/td]
[td]484[/td]
[td]774[/td]
[td]62.5[/td]
[td]5450[/td]
[td]42[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]134.2[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

What you have is virtually identical players coming out of college playing in the same offensive philosophy, the same offensive mind calling many of the shots (Philbin) but one of them is on a team with less skill talent and didn't have the benefit of waiting first. There is no reason to think Tannehill won't be excellent this year.

 

4 year starter + 1 year bench rider vs 19 game starter, actual rookie.

The keys for me is he didn't crumble under the blitz. He was actually one of the top guys out there when you blitzed him. Red zone wise he was efficient. 8 TD's/1 INT inside the 20 (86.5 pass rating), 5 TD's, 0 INT's inside the 10 (95.8). He also showed something Henne never did. Poise and leadership. All from a guy nearly everyone said wasn't ready to start his first year.

 

I just thought he finished up really strongly and I liked that. It would have been really easy to crumble and he gave us some good performances late in the year. The Patriot game not withstanding, his rating went up as the season went on. His lack of weapons and teammates ability to at the very least stretch the field really hurt him imo.

Im predicting:
TD: 20
Stretch goal: 25

TD/INT: 1.6/1
Stretch goal: 2/1

Comp %, QBR, and YPR I can agree with the original post

 

Dan Henning and David Lee...... And here comes Pat White. :sidelol:

 

You guys are absolutely killing me here.

2:1 YD/INT ratio?

How about he just throws more TD's than INT's. :pity:

 

The one thing I have reservations about is clutch time, come from behind performance.

He showed some flashes of being able to step up in a couple games, but didn't in a few too.

This year I want to see that confidence, intensity and leadership to will a team to victory. Of course, Marino spoiled us.

 

After looking at most of the QBs who became elite, they generally had a 70s QB rating in year one, then at least 85+ in year two... So that's what I want to see.

And TD-Int ratio needs to be 1.5 to 1 with 20+ TDs.

 

Movement and athletic ability.

You don't like Ryan.... for some reason.

 

The last quarter of the season he had a 5:1 TD/INT ratio... I think that should give people some hope that he'll easily be able to throw more TDs than INTs in 2013.

 

His passer rating was 76 last season, not 53. A reasonable goal IMO would be 85 and a stretch would be 95.

 

I assume he is going by ESPN's QBR.

 

Why would anyone want to use ESPN's proprietary rating? What makes it better? To me, the main thing is being on the same page with the most people sharing the info. The rest of the sports world mainly uses the NFL's passer rating formula. I see no reason for the very existence of the ESPN passer rating. JMO.

 

This...

He was borderline horrific in college and didn't show much his rookie season in the clutch.

The Jets games some people refer to Tannehill finished the drive in which Miami tied the game to send it to OT going 0 for his last 6. Miami got into FG range when on a PI call in which the ball appeared to be too high for Bess to catch.

Thank goodness the refs called the love tap to the the helmet in the Seattle game when Tannehill committed the Cardinal sin of throwing back over the middle for a pick in the end zone. Speaking of the Cardinals, Tannehill played his best game...uh, until it was on the line.

A 73.3 QB rating +/- 7 points in the 4th quarter (significantly benefited by Hartline's 80 TD catch) and a 38.3 QB rating last 2 minutes of the half/game definitely don't cut it.

The two measurements I think matters most are 1) seriously improves on leading Miami to more than 6 victories (10 would be a reasonable goal) and 2) at least doubles 4th quarter comebacks which isn't all that much needing only two.

 

Right because a free blitzer hitting you as you throw (twice I believe in that game, one fumble and the OT pick) is the QB's fault. Not devaluing your post, I just don't agree with that one statement.

 

I also don't blame you for being cynical, because I've been watching this team for a long time, and they're long overdue for some success. Still, as for Henne vs. Tannehill (specifically regarding the numbers you posted)...

There's a pretty significant difference in yards per attempt (.4), and that's a critical stat (just ask anyone who bets on football). I know stats aren't everything, but if you're comparing two quarterbacks with similar numbers, that's a number that separates the two.

A lot of that difference can be chalked up to the coaching staff, but the coaching staff is a big part of the reason some people are excited about Tannehill. It's a pretty QB-friendly system, and Tannehill has pretty much grown up in it. Next year will be his fourth season starting at QB after high school--roughly the equivalent of Henne's senior year at Michigan, experience-wise--and it will already be his 2nd season starting in the NFL.

Of course, none of that means he will definitely succeed. Tannehill needs to improve in a lot of areas. If he doesn't get any better than he was in his first year, he won't last long. However, he has shown the ability to learn and adjust quickly, and he has shown improvement every year. If the kid just holds true to form, I think the QB situation here will be fine.

 

He's using ESPN's QBR not the traditional QB rating.

 

You do realize that Tannehill put up those numbers with arguably the worst receiving core in the league, right?

 

Okay, and the first 3/4 was almost 1:2.

All I'm saying, is that he had more INT's than TD's last season. Perhaps he has turned the corner, but until he actually throws more TD's than INT's I think it's silly to propose that he will reverse that 1:2. Let's not forget that the last 1/4, aside from San Francisco, he played some pretty bad defenses...and San Francisco was not an INT's defense. We have already talked about that in another thread.

Reminds me much of a certain poster that used to come in and proclaim that Sanchez was a great QB simply because he would cherry pick which stats were representative of his play. Can't do that. Until something changes, he has more INT than TD as a pro.

 

As soon as I saw Project Management...I was thinking what part of the DMV is this guy from. Hahaha. Taking a PMP or is this for a degree program?

Also, as a IT guy, it wouldn't be in character for me to give you accurate information to put into your WBS and Gant Charts....so....that being said....here is me being the IT guy and answers your complex question with an answer that does you absolutely no good and yields absolutely no value added. "Tannehill will do gooder than last year."

 

And in 2014 I expect he will do MUCH gooder!!!

 

Feel this a good measuring stick and is reasonable

 

Good is the enemy of Gooder!

 

First NY game: 16 of 36, 196 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 23-20 Loss. Game tying drive: 2 or 9, 12yds + 19yd interference pen (questionable call). 12yds/2carries for Thomas. 5yds/1carry for Tannehill. OT drive: He did complete a 41 yd pass to a wide open Hartline, but Hartline had to full extend dive to catch it. Good enough though. Too bad Carpenter missed the kick.

Seattle game: Not bad at all. The catches by Bess were spectacular. I'll give ya that one for sure. I want Tannehill to be successful. Just hard to share the optimistic confidence that others have. Fingers crossed.

 

If you can't recognize the growth of rookie quarterback from game one to game sixteen, I can't help you.

You act as if he threw about ten more interceptions than touchdowns during the season but he threw only threw one more. You need to look at the trends and his improvement at the season went on.

First Half of the Season: 2:3 TD/INT Ratio
Second Half of the Season: 8:7 TD/INT Ratio

If you go back and watch the entire season... you cannot tell me you didn't see Tannehill grow into a better quarterback as the season wore on. I'm not suggesting Tannehill will throw 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions... I'm thinking 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions is a reasonable expectation, personally.

 

Sure. There's zero doubt he grew as the season went on, and he might continue that trend especially with new weapons around him, but, until I see that happen, I am guardedly optimistic.

I also wouldn't discount the fact that he also lost a key weapon in bush, and 3 very important elements in Pass pro in Long, Bush and Fasano. I am very nervous about that aspect myself.

If he gets 20 and 12 as you suggest, I will be very optimistic about his future.

 

You can also have relative comparison. Right now Tannehill is pretty clearly the runt compared to Luck, RG3, and Wilson. I would expect him to improve above RG3 and Wilson if he is a franchise guy

 

NE was an INTs defense though (turnovers in general they were great at) with 20 INTs on the season, which tied them for 5th best in the league. And we played them twice over the last five games. If you took away all the INTs the Patriots got from Tannehill they're still tied for 6th best in the league with 19.

 

I think this season will be no excuses for him. We have certainly provided him with weapons to this point, and hopefully we address some of the protection needs as well. He can't afford to have the "sophomore slump". I agree with the statement that we need to see a 10 win season out of him and at a couple fourth quarter comebacks.

 

Watch those games again if you could. I was at a few of them and saw in person some of the things your refuting.

The Seahawks game ? We scored on our last 3 drives for a comeback win. To be a dolphin fan and not remember that, act like it didnt happen and discredit your QB is saddening to me.:cry:

Your also comparing numbers of 4 year starter at Mich. Henne's second year in the league VS. The raw "Slash" Tannehill's rookie year.

 

TD-20
Stretch:26

INT-14
Stretch:10

Comp. %-60
Stretch:65

Injuries-0
Stretch:Pro Bowl

Best Qbs in Afc

Brady
Manning
Luck
Rothlisberger
Rivers
Flacco
Dalton
Smith
Schaub.

We're set up nicely to have one of the best QBs in the conference a few years from now if RT progresses like we hope.

Nfc much more young and crowded. Brees,Rodgers,Manning,Griffin,Romo,Stafford,Ryan,Newton,Wilson,Kaepernick,Bradford,Freeman,Cutler,Vick,WOW !