Miami Dolphins Will Boast League’s Most Dangerous Pass Rush in 2014

Could certainly happen. I like that people are finally seeing what I saw in Olivier Vernon when he was drafted. Hes raw but man can he get after that QB. If he can just take it up another notch we got ourselves our next stud DE. Dion being out hurts us a bit but I think all the moves the front office has made points to Miami as a team thats going to get sacks and turnovers more then having effective yardage stats. Its being designed as a bend but dont break style thats going to get after the QB. Even Earl Mitchell fits that description as well in that hes a good interior pass rusher.

On a different note a rotation of Odrick, Mitchell and Starks (in any order) kind of works against traditional thinking that you need a true "over" NT. As the league becomes more and more about the pass, the interior pass rushers have to evolve as well. Im glad we've caught on to that quicker then a lot of other teams.

It's too bad we're ranked 32nd and we haven't even played a down!

"lmeister3 wrote:

It's too bad we're ranked 32nd and we haven't even played a down!

Miami is going to have to forfeit the season.

"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:

Miami is going to have to forfeit the season.

Just pencil in that #1 draft pick and call it a year.

Nice read, man the season needs to start already. At least give me some training camp notes damn it!!!! 2 days, 2 days.

BTW off topic, but I just watched the NFL yearbook on the dolphins season. Man that play that Michael Thomas made in your sig picture was pure excellence. Never mind the was the biggest play at the biggest moment, the execution was perfect. Then they show Brady motioning like he had the catch, oh what a heart stopping game.

If you look at past SB teams you most commonly see certain positions/elements that excel during those teams magical seasons.

QB
pass rush
Safety (basically TO differential, but most often due to a safety or safety tandem having a great season)
pass catchers

Those four positions/elements coming together during one season are far and away the most commonly recurring denominators in teams that successfully make a championship run. And you almost never see a team make such a run without those elements. Even the '72 Dolphins which were famous for their run game had one of the most efficient pass games in history that season. I saw a correlation analysis several years ago and having a QB and pass rusher (DE or LB) were the most highly correlated positions (+90% and 80% respectively) followed by Safety and WR (>70% each) if I recall correctly. I expanded the WR category to include TE since they're often just big WRs in today's game. I think next was C at about 60%. Every other position was hit or miss. Obviously the probowl isn't proof positive of a player having a great season since there is popularity element to it, but I do believe it is indicative of which positions you need to get great production out of for a championship run. It also meshes with win probability stats that show that passing more efficiently than your opponents (either through a great pass offense or great pass defense or a combo of both) is far and away the stat most correlated with winning.

Having said all that, this Dolphin team has the talent at those critical positions to potentially put together a championship run. Tannehill has shown more than flashes of being special. A good to very good pass rush unit seems to be just scratching the surface of their potential. They have a S in Jones who played at a probowl level just two seasons ago (and personally I think Thomas has the natural instincts to be special). And Wallace and Clay are certainly capable of producing probowl seasons (technically so is Hartline). And once Pouncey gets back you could even add the fifth most correlated position. Obviously potential on paper doesn't mean anything by itself, but the potential is at least there. The biggest factor in how and whether theses elements can reach their potential is the coaching. IMO a good coach can mask OL deficiencies if they're more creative than just keeping a back in and repeating "execute better". We saw that most recently with Seattle last season who's OL was as bad or worse than Miami's most of the year but were hidden/protected through read options, rollouts and such. Fortunately, Lazor brings hope on offense and Coyle does the same on defense.

In summary, while none of this guarantees anything, the elements are there. It certainly wouldn't be surprising for Tannehill, the pass rush, Reshad Jones and Wallace or Clay to have probowl level years. It also wouldn't be surprising if Lazor were to introduce some of the Philly offense to great effect or for Coyle to bring the D back to what we saw two seasons ago or even a few times last season. Some may say that hoping for all of those to happen is wishful thinking and it may be, but reality is that it happens every year for some team. Often for teams with less obvious talent or reason for optimism in all of those elements. Most often it's some team that gets on a run at the right time with an efficient passing offense and a killer pass rush. IMO the talent particularly at QB/pass catchers, DL and in Lazor would hardly make such a run a stretch. So while there are always reasons for pessimism, there are also reasons for optimism. Which side you fall on probably says more about you than the team.

I like Miami's interior pass rush with Odrick and Starks, and Cameron Wake remains one of the very best in football so they should have a good rush.

There's something missing with respect to Earl Mitchell's pass rush.

We'll see if Olivier Vernon develops further than he did in 2013 but in 2013 he was not a very good pass rusher overall. He racked up sacks randomly, a lot of them cleanup sacks, but didn't pressure the passer with high efficiency.

Dion Jordan is suspended 4 games and that will impact him especially with this coaching staff that seems all too willing to put him on a shelf for any excuse. I would say Dion will have 4 games he's missing and another 4 games where his progress/playing time is disrupted.

Maybe Mitchell, Starks, and Odrick would be better off trying to beat people to the spot, I haven isolated Solai's game last year and all his reps, but man did we stink against the rush, maybe just holding your ground isn't enough against offenses like New England and the bills, I'm really not sure what Mitchell lacks in Paul Solai's skills will be a detriment to us considering he makes up for it with skills that Solai doesn't have..

Considering the abuse we took against the run, I have to say I'm ready for true 4 3 players..

"ckparrothead wrote:

I like Miami's interior pass rush with Odrick and Starks, and Cameron Wake remains one of the very best in football so they should have a good rush.

There's something missing with respect to Earl Mitchell's pass rush.

We'll see if Olivier Vernon develops further than he did in 2013 but in 2013 he was not a very good pass rusher overall. He racked up sacks randomly, a lot of them cleanup sacks, but didn't pressure the passer with high efficiency.

Dion Jordan is suspended 4 games and that will impact him especially with this coaching staff that seems all too willing to put him on a shelf for any excuse. I would say Dion will have 4 games he's missing and another 4 games where his progress/playing time is disrupted.

Expand please. Or expound, whichever you prefer.

"77FinFan wrote:

Expand please. Or expound, whichever you prefer.

He's athletic in the extreme for his position, but he doesn't get penetration even when put in position to do so. Kevin Coyle may have more luck by getting him to stunt to the outside which would tend to maximize the value of his athleticism.

"ckparrothead wrote:

I like Miami's interior pass rush with Odrick and Starks, and Cameron Wake remains one of the very best in football so they should have a good rush.

There's something missing with respect to Earl Mitchell's pass rush.

We'll see if Olivier Vernon develops further than he did in 2013 but in 2013 he was not a very good pass rusher overall. He racked up sacks randomly, a lot of them cleanup sacks, but didn't pressure the passer with high efficiency.

Dion Jordan is suspended 4 games and that will impact him especially with this coaching staff that seems all too willing to put him on a shelf for any excuse. I would say Dion will have 4 games he's missing and another 4 games where his progress/playing time is disrupted.

I've been saying this all along. OV is an effort player, which is good to have on any team but is he a dynamic pass rusher? No longer will he be able move in anonymity on the field. It can be argued that the game planning for him started late last season.

"Itsdahumidity wrote:

I've been saying this all along. OV is an effort player, which is good to have on any team but is he a dynamic pass rusher? No longer will he be able move in anonymity on the field. It can be argued that the game planning for him started late last season.

There were times he really showed something. A few times against Joe Thomas he rushed really well although was blocked well enough not to get the sack, and definitely on one sack he had against D.J. Fluker he had a really textbook rush.

But those are only coming in flashes. Most other times it's the kind of "effort" and chase stuff you're referring to. And his pressure rate is just not high regardless of the sack count. Pressure rate is a MUCH better indicator of things to come than pure sack count or sack rate. Sack counts/rates are hugely subject to sample issues. Pressure rates are much more stable and predictive of future success.

His pressure rate just wasn't high. It was about 9.0%. For example, Cameron Wake's is nearly twice that.

"ckparrothead wrote:

There were times he really showed something. A few times against Joe Thomas he rushed really well although was blocked well enough not to get the sack, and definitely on one sack he had against D.J. Fluker he had a really textbook rush.

But those are only coming in flashes. Most other times it's the kind of "effort" and chase stuff you're referring to. And his pressure rate is just not high regardless of the sack count. Pressure rate is a MUCH better indicator of things to come than pure sack count or sack rate. Sack counts/rates are hugely subject to sample issues. Pressure rates are much more stable and predictive of future success.

His pressure rate just wasn't high. It was about 9.0%. For example, Cameron Wake's is nearly twice that.

Hopefully we'll see him rush over the guard more. I know you were banging that drum early and often with regard to OV. Erik Frenz on Bleacher Report (AFC East Blog) had a nice breakdown of OV rushing over the guard spots. Most of it was surrounding the first Jets game last year, but I do recall that being a more prominent role for him later in the season.

"Itsdahumidity wrote:

I've been saying this all along. OV is an effort player, which is good to have on any team but is he a dynamic pass rusher? No longer will he be able move in anonymity on the field. It can be argued that the game planning for him started late last season.

What is it about OV that stands out to you as a player who cannot increase his pass rush efficiency?

"RoninFin4 wrote:

Hopefully we'll see him rush over the guard more. I know you were banging that drum early and often with regard to OV. Erik Frenz on Bleacher Report (AFC East Blog) had a nice breakdown of OV rushing over the guard spots. Most of it was surrounding the first Jets game last year, but I do recall that being a more prominent role for him later in the season.

They stopped doing it for some reason. Don't know why. They had been having success with it. And yes I've been banging the drum for that ever since he came out. Despite some people trying to pretend I've always hated OV and therefore any view I express is just me trying to be right, I had a positive evaluation on OV coming out of Miami. But I did see him as being a multiple-style player that would be most interesting from a pass rush standpoint when reduced inside to face guards, and otherwise should be used like a Jarret Johnson strong side run stopper lining up primarily over the tight end.

"ckparrothead wrote:

There were times he really showed something. A few times against Joe Thomas he rushed really well although was blocked well enough not to get the sack, and definitely on one sack he had against D.J. Fluker he had a really textbook rush.

But those are only coming in flashes. Most other times it's the kind of "effort" and chase stuff you're referring to. And his pressure rate is just not high regardless of the sack count. Pressure rate is a MUCH better indicator of things to come than pure sack count or sack rate. Sack counts/rates are hugely subject to sample issues. Pressure rates are much more stable and predictive of future success.

His pressure rate just wasn't high. It was about 9.0%. For example, Cameron Wake's is nearly twice that.

During the early and middle part of last season, Vernon played well and he had the majority of his sacks during this period of the season . Toward the end of the season, he basically disappeared and he only had one sack over the last four weeks of the season.

In fact he had five of his sacks the first time he played against the Patriots, Bills ,and Jets. This included 3 sacks against the Jets in their first meeting. Over the last three games which were against these same three teams, he had zero sacks and played badly, especially in the Jets and Bills games.

I think Vernon was merely a product of the fact teams were so concerned with Wake early last season that Vernon didn't get much attention and he played against just one blocker on most plays. Once Wake was injured and teams became more aware of Vernon, his play on the field declined quite a bit.

Hopefully he can come back and play at a more consistent level throughout the entire 2014 season, but I think he will probably end up being just an average DE in the NFL over the coming years. I would not be surprised if his nine and a half sacks in 2013 end up being his highest season sack total during his entire NFL playing career.

Again, pure SACK counts are all but meaningless to me. Studies showing when the sacks occur aren't going to mean much to me. Sometimes they come in waves or bunches, sometimes they come consistently. When they come, what part of the season in which they come, and how often they come is all just a RANDOM function of a player's pressure rate. The pressure rate is what tends to be more stable and sticky.

That said, you are correct that his pressure rate dropped off the planet in the final four games. He went from a 10.8% pressure rate in the first 12 games to a 3.8% pressure rate in the final 4 games. He was terrible.

"ckparrothead wrote:

There were times he really showed something. A few times against Joe Thomas he rushed really well although was blocked well enough not to get the sack, and definitely on one sack he had against D.J. Fluker he had a really textbook rush.

But those are only coming in flashes. Most other times it's the kind of "effort" and chase stuff you're referring to. And his pressure rate is just not high regardless of the sack count. Pressure rate is a MUCH better indicator of things to come than pure sack count or sack rate. Sack counts/rates are hugely subject to sample issues. Pressure rates are much more stable and predictive of future success.

His pressure rate just wasn't high. It was about 9.0%. For example, Cameron Wake's is nearly twice that.

Haven't had a chance to look at stats, but considering the few times Jordan was in the game, his pressure % seemed much higher. Of course, that is skewed a bit by Jordan being in mostly on obvious passing downs. But, I think he is a better pass rusher and will be a more consistent one than Vernon. Though, I do like Vernon on the team.

"Da 'Fins wrote:

Haven't had a chance to look at stats, but considering the few times Jordan was in the game, his pressure % seemed much higher. Of course, that is skewed a bit by Jordan being in mostly on obvious passing downs. But, I think he is a better pass rusher and will be a more consistent one than Vernon. Though, I do like Vernon on the team.

Jordan was 12%

"Da 'Fins wrote:

Haven't had a chance to look at stats, but considering the few times Jordan was in the game, his pressure % seemed much higher. Of course, that is skewed a bit by Jordan being in mostly on obvious passing downs. But, I think he is a better pass rusher and will be a more consistent one than Vernon. Though, I do like Vernon on the team.

Higher than Vernon's, but still not high. Jordan was at 11.7%. High would be in the 13's.

Of course Jordan was just a rookie. That counts for something. When OV was a rookie his pressure percentage was a lousy 7.3%. He made improvement but he's still not an efficient pass rusher. His sack totals just make him look that way.

"rafael wrote:

If you look at past SB teams you most commonly see certain positions/elements that excel during those teams magical seasons.

QB
pass rush
Safety (basically TO differential, but most often due to a safety or safety tandem having a great season)
pass catchers

Those four positions/elements coming together during one season are far and away the most commonly recurring denominators in teams that successfully make a championship run. And you almost never see a team make such a run without those elements. Even the '72 Dolphins which were famous for their run game had one of the most efficient pass games in history that season. I saw a correlation analysis several years ago and having a QB and pass rusher (DE or LB) were the most highly correlated positions (+90% and 80% respectively) followed by Safety and WR (>70% each) if I recall correctly. I expanded the WR category to include TE since they're often just big WRs in today's game. I think next was C at about 60%. Every other position was hit or miss. Obviously the probowl isn't proof positive of a player having a great season since there is popularity element to it, but I do believe it is indicative of which positions you need to get great production out of for a championship run. It also meshes with win probability stats that show that passing more efficiently than your opponents (either through a great pass offense or great pass defense or a combo of both) is far and away the stat most correlated with winning.

Having said all that, this Dolphin team has the talent at those critical positions to potentially put together a championship run. Tannehill has shown more than flashes of being special. A good to very good pass rush unit seems to be just scratching the surface of their potential. They have a S in Jones who played at a probowl level just two seasons ago (and personally I think Thomas has the natural instincts to be special). And Wallace and Clay are certainly capable of producing probowl seasons (technically so is Hartline). And once Pouncey gets back you could even add the fifth most correlated position. Obviously potential on paper doesn't mean anything by itself, but the potential is at least there. The biggest factor in how and whether theses elements can reach their potential is the coaching. IMO a good coach can mask OL deficiencies if they're more creative than just keeping a back in and repeating "execute better". We saw that most recently with Seattle last season who's OL was as bad or worse than Miami's most of the year but were hidden/protected through read options, rollouts and such. Fortunately, Lazor brings hope on offense and Coyle does the same on defense.

In summary, while none of this guarantees anything, the elements are there. It certainly wouldn't be surprising for Tannehill, the pass rush, Reshad Jones and Wallace or Clay to have probowl level years. It also wouldn't be surprising if Lazor were to introduce some of the Philly offense to great effect or for Coyle to bring the D back to what we saw two seasons ago or even a few times last season. Some may say that hoping for all of those to happen is wishful thinking and it may be, but reality is that it happens every year for some team. Often for teams with less obvious talent or reason for optimism in all of those elements. Most often it's some team that gets on a run at the right time with an efficient passing offense and a killer pass rush. IMO the talent particularly at QB/pass catchers, DL and in Lazor would hardly make such a run a stretch. So while there are always reasons for pessimism, there are also reasons for optimism. Which side you fall on probably says more about you than the team.

The second I see evidence we will in fact be running a Philly style up tempo offense and Tannehill and a few other key pieces makes it through most of preseason unscathed I'll be placing a bet on the Dolphins winning the AFC championship game at 19-1 odds.

"rafael wrote:

If you look at past SB teams you most commonly see certain positions/elements that excel during those teams magical seasons.

QB
pass rush
Safety (basically TO differential, but most often due to a safety or safety tandem having a great season)
pass catchers

The more specific trend you see in the Champ teams is star franchise players at impact positions (QB, WR, RB, CB, S, DE, DT). Guys who are around the top 5 at their position (Sherman/Thomas/Chancellor/Harvin/Lynch).

The Dolphins currently have just one star in Wake. That's a problem. The pass rush will be awesome if Jordan emerges as a game changer. OV is a solid player, but we have enough solid players. Good starters will get you a few wins but they won't get you over the hump into the postseason towards title contention. Jordan has more star potential on the edge than OV, imo, and it's studs that move the needs on a team and make a unit great.

"Limbo wrote:

The more specific trend you see in the Champ teams is star franchise players at impact positions (QB, WR, CB, S, DE, DT). Guys who are around the top 5 at their position (Sherman/Thomas/Chancellor/Harvin/Lynch).

The Dolphins currently have just one star in Wake. That's a problem. The pass rush will be awesome if Jordan emerges as a game changer. OV is a solid player, but solid players don't move the needle much in the W column. Jordan has far more stud potential on the edge than OV, imo, and it's studs that make a unit great.

harvin? He isn't close to top 5 in his position.