Miami Is Likely to Face ‘Win-and-In’ Scenario in Week 17
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thetylernatorforum_veteranOPMiami Is Likely to Face ‘Win-and-In’ Scenario in Week 17
With just a quarter of the 2018 NFL regular season to go, only a handful of teams remain in the wildcard hunt—and the Dolphins are a surprising favorite out of the AFC.
As of Week 13, they hold onto 7th place, trailing the 7-5 Baltimore Ravens. Much of Baltimore’s resurgence can be attributed to Lamar Jackson, who has been sensational as a dual-threat quarterback. However, his passing game leaves much to be desired, and it’s asking a lot of a rookie quarterback to continue producing with NFL team’s actively studying and adjusting to better deal with his legs. In the coming weeks, Baltimore travels to the Kansas City Chiefs (10-2), hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7), travels to the Los Angeles Chargers (9-3), and ends the season hosting the Cleveland Browns (4-7-1). Realistically, it’s safe to say that the Ravens win 2 of those 4, ending the season at 9-7.
The Indianapolis Colts (6-6) suffered a major setback this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are playing for morale at this point in a lost season. In the coming weeks, the Colts travel to the Houston Texans (9-3), host the Dallas Cowboys (7-5), host the New York Giants (4-8), and travel to the Tennessee Titans (6-6). These games are more difficult to project, two of which are divisional in Houston and Tennessee, and the other two being interconference against a similarly talented team in Dallas and a New York squad that matches up surprisingly well with the Colts, who are allowing 104 RYPG and must find a way to contain a future all-pro in Saquon Barkley. Even so, I project Indianapolis to finish 9-7, with a sole loss coming against the surging Cowboys.
The Tennessee Titans (6-6) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8), travel to the New York Giants (4-8), host the Washington Redskins (6-6), and the Indianapolis Colts (6-6). The Titans, with three home games remaining and a favorable schedule, will need to overcome the inconsistency that has plagued them this season to put together a string of 3-4 wins. I project them to win two games, against the Jaguars and the Redskins, ending at 8-8. Unfortunately for them, a 3rd win (assuming Miami manages 9 wins themselves) won’t be enough to win a tiebreaker.
The Broncos (6-6) travel to the San Francisco 49ers (2-10), host the Cleveland Browns (4-7-1), travel to the Oakland Raiders (2-10), and host the Los Angeles Chargers (9-3), amounting to what looks like the most favorable schedule of these wildcard-chasing teams. Personally, I don’t think this team is coached well enough to go flawless through this stretch, which is what they will need to unseat Miami in the event of a 9-7 tie. Regardless, I project 2-2, with losses coming in a pair of classic trap game at San Francisco and Oakland.
Miami must overcome a healthy number of obstacles themselves, and this is certainly no guarantee. There are many justified concerns about coaching, play calling, and quarterback play. Make no mistake, though: this team is very good at winning games they shouldn’t, and as we learned in 2016, coming out on top in close contests. They’re not flashy. They’re gritty, mistake-prone, and scrappy. But this is exactly the type of team that ends up clinching the final wildcard spot.
As we all know, the Dolphins host the New England Patriots (9-3), travel to the Minnesota Vikings (6-5-1), host the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8), and travel to the Buffalo Bills (4-8).
Miami generally plays New England tough in South Florida, and I firmly believe the Patriots are walking into a trap. Had they lost against the Vikings last week, this would be a much more difficult game; but between that win and Pittsburgh’s brutal loss, New England’s path to a bye is clear—especially if they can beat the Steelers in Week 15. There is no chance the New England players aren’t glancing over Miami and looking ahead to Pittsburgh. Miami wins a close one.
Battling Minnesota is going to be tough, and I’m projecting a loss by more than a touchdown. I expect a rebound game against the broken Jaguars the following week at home, as we enter a ‘win-and-in’ scenario in Week 17.
Buffalo played a great game last week, and by all accounts, they outplayed Miami. Obviously, Josh Allen’s legs were the biggest issue, and hopefully Miami knows what adjustments they need to make to contain him. But that’s not why I think Miami wins this game; I think they win because they know they must. In any other scenario, Miami loses in Buffalo. However, when you give a scrappy team a play-in game, they’re more likely than not to accomplish what they need to accomplish. Although, this game is anything but guaranteed, and it will ultimately come down to Adam Gase and his ability to coach an NFL club. This game will define his time in Miami as a play-caller, a motivator, and a strategist. All things considered, and as unbiased as I can humanly remain, I believe that the 2018 Miami Dolphins are likely to enter Week 17 as the AFC’s 6th seed favorites. Anything beyond that is up to Gase and his team. Win, and you’re in—lose, and you’re done.
AFC’s projected standings:
Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
New England Patriots (11-5)
Houston Texans (11-5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5-1)
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
Miami Dolphins (9-7)
Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
Denver Broncos (8-8)
Tennessee Titans (8-8)
*Miami wins tiebreaker through PCT vs. conference as head-to-head is thrown out, which is defined as “…the winning percentage in games against other tied teams. In situations with more than two tied teams, the record between any two of the tied teams is irrelevant. This means one team could have beaten another and be ranked below them.”
*This scenario is played out in PlayoffPredictors.com at: https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/CustomLeague/SchedulePicker/d0b6b7be-6b31-49cc-8199-16c473d3ca2e/?L=IwZgTMxh2bfzqSKlXQ9EHdY1es82RBW0puUixlMa9VMJFaeGGuX91Z3KzNkPwEq1Hkn7AADLOlA&c=cgm:1|tnptlw:true
Redwine4allforum_veteranMiami can still win 10 games. That should assure them a playoff spot. If they dont make the playoffs, Gase has to go away. The culture is still not a winning one. No one in the NFL would've been shocked if they lost to the Bill's Sunday... And no one will be shocked if they lose any of their last 4 games! Expectations are rock bottom.
The_Dark_Knightforum_veteranWhile the playoff scenario predictor makes sense to me, it seems to me that Miami has a defensive identity crisis. This past week against the Bills...the week prior against the Colts. We lucked out against the Bills with Clay's drop in the endzone but let's be honest, our defense let both of those teams score TD's on last minute drives spanning the length of the field.
Our defense is weak. So much so that even if we were to luckily squeak into the playoffs, we're out of the door before the ball is kicked off.
“The person you will spend the most time with in your life is yourself, so you better make sure you’re someone interesting”
thetylernatorforum_veteran"The_Dark_Knight wrote:
While the playoff scenario predictor makes sense to me, it seems to me that Miami has a defensive identity crisis. This past week against the Bills...the week prior against the Colts. We lucked out against the Bills with Clay's drop in the endzone but let's be honest, our defense let both of those teams score TD's on last minute drives spanning the length of the field.
Our defense is weak. So much so that even if we were to luckily squeak into the playoffs, we're out of the door before the ball is kicked off.
Agreed. I certainly don't expect them to make any noise in the playoffs, but if Gase and Co. manage to get this team into the playoffs with all of our setbacks and inconsistencies, I'll call it a victory.
thetylernatorforum_veteran"Unlucky 13 wrote:
That is...highly optimistic
Believe, brother.
Unlucky 13subscriber"thetylernator wrote:
Believe, brother.
The team has allowed 1100 more yards than they have gained so far this season. We're lucky not to be 2-10.
mlb1399forum_veteranI have a hard time seeing anything other than 1-3. That could be residual pessimism based on decades of being a Miami fan.
resnorforum_veteranWhen has Miami, under Gase, showed that they can show up in a win-and-in game? Miami has lost pretty much every significant game of that sort that they've played.
TheHighExhaultedforum_veteranCan people just be fans for the next 4 weeks and not little whining whoa is me babies?
We'll see.
Let's go Dolphins
KeyFinforum_veteranI saw on another site that the odds of this scenario playing out is 5%. But regardless of the odds, we need to beat NE, Jax and Buffalo. I always like our chances against Brady at home though- very big gamer this week! Jax and Buffalo are obviously beatable as well.
Who knows- we could be a playoff team in 2018....the same year most of this forum wanted to fire everyone. If we can squeak past NE things will get exciting in a hurry....
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
I have never seen such a bad 6-6 team in my life. Gase might actually get to hold onto to his job because he gets to play the Jets and Bills twice. Oh yeah, we also got to play the Raiders in a rebuild year.
We are the 29th ranked defense and offense. This is a far more accurate barometer of the state of our team than our record. The Bills and Jets are trending up. We are trending down.
Deus ex dolphinforum_veteranWell, I've said repeatedly that Buffalo at home was the last winnable game this season -and that was a drop away from being a loss.
I really, REALLY want to see us beat New England. If Burke has ANY ability to scheme a defensive effort, now is the time. If we pull off that minor miracle, then I'll buy into the hope we can sneak into the playoffs again. I should know better of course, the season ending in the snowy wasteland of Buffalo during a win-and-in scenario would be even more painful than losing four straight to end the season.
This thread is a tribute to the power of hope though. :)
A terrible play call, terribly executed.
I'm curious as to why the writer thinks "the dead-of-winter" in Minnesota will affect Miami's play in a dome where it's around 70 degrees with no wind or other elements?
I hope the Dolphins win out. I suspect they go 0-4 with possibly a 1-3 finish to the season.
"tirty8 wrote:
I have never seen such a bad 6-6 team in my life. Gase might actually get to hold onto to his job because he gets to play the Jets and Bills twice. Oh yeah, we also got to play the Raiders in a rebuild year.
We are the 29th ranked defense and offense. This is a far more accurate barometer of the state of our team than our record. The Bills and Jets are trending up. We are trending down.
They are actually the 25th ranked offense and 20th ranked defense.
Still nowhere near good enough, but still....
Fin-Oforum_veteran"TheHighExhaulted wrote:
Can people just be fans for the next 4 weeks and not little whining whoa is me babies?
We'll see.
Let's go Dolphins
I didn't get the memo that being honest about your teams shortcomings, disqualified someone as a fan.
Guess I have to pack up my office and leave.
"The reason so many people misunderstand so many issues is not that these issues are so complex, but that the people do not want a factual or analytical explanation that leaves them emotionally unsatisfied"
djphinfansubscriber"TheHighExhaulted wrote:
Can people just be fans for the next 4 weeks and not little whining whoa is me babies?
We'll see.
Let's go Dolphins
I’m in, we just got to beat the Pats first, otherwise the other weeks won’t matter.
mor911forum_veteranI'm assuming we go 1-3 in the next 4 games. Wouldn't be surprised if we lose every game.
yesssssssssssssssssss
Fin D;2829671 wrote:
As mor wisely said
muskrat21forum_veteranfavorite? every media outlet has them with a 5% chance or worse to get the last spot meanwhile every other team is in double digits.
"muskrat21 wrote:
favorite? every media outlet has them with a 5% chance or worse to get the last spot meanwhile every other team is in double digits.
fivethirtyeight has us at 7% while NY Times has us at 10%:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nfl-predictions/
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html
What's really interesting is how different those probabilities are because theoretically everyone should calculate the same number.
fivethirtyeight uses the Elo rating system (same as used in chess) which estimates probability of winning based on whatever the teams' current Elo ratings are, but contains an arbitrary parameter that determines how much to change Elo rating after any win/loss. In other words, there's an arbitrariness you can't really remove from this approach.
NY Times is just looking through all possible outcomes with some fixed probability of winning model (or possibly none at all) and just stating the percent of times the team made the playoffs.
Not sure which is better, and historical probabilities don't help either because historically a 6-6 team makes the playoffs 29% of the time, but most of that is NOT due to cases where you have 4 different 6-6 teams trying to beat out a 7-5 team for that last playoff spot lol.
thetylernatorforum_veteran"danmarino wrote:
I'm curious as to why the writer thinks "the dead-of-winter" in Minnesota will affect Miami's play in a dome where it's around 70 degrees with no wind or other elements?
I hope the Dolphins win out. I suspect they go 0-4 with possibly a 1-3 finish to the season.
My bad. Edited that part out.
"thetylernator wrote:
My bad. Edited that part out.
Are you the author?
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