My 7 Round Mock

I don't like it. This is the one draft we're going to have the chance to draft high, and what was the point of the house-cleaning if we don't use that pick on a star QB?

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I don't like it. This is the one draft we're going to have the chance to draft high, and what was the point of the house-cleaning if we don't use that pick on a star QB?

All of the top QBs have serious question marks. Okudah is a more sure fire pick at #5. Although I personally would prefer we trade down from five to aquire extra 2nd and 3rd round picks.

They have to take a QB with their first pick.

Okudah has diva/jerk written all over him.

There is zero chance they are going to draft two running backs in the first 55 picks or whatever the number is.

Hurts isn't going to be there in the third round.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

They have to take a QB with their first pick.

Okudah has diva/jerk written all over him.

There is zero chance they are going to draft two running backs in the first 55 picks or whatever the number is.

Hurts isn't going to be there in the third round.

Yeah, I actually like C.J. Henderson more than Okuda, but we can trade down from five, pick C.J. in the mid first round, and still get a couple of extra 2nd and 3rd round picks.

Okudah is a fine player (and easily the top CB), but imo a CB is not a culture builder. A CB is not a roster changer.

You have to get a QB at that spot, or failing that, a LT or rusher. A top 5 pick has to be a tone setter, I just don't see Okudah as being that, as good as I think he may become. Outside the QB's, I see Young and Simmons as the tone setters here (with the QBs being more risk but also more reward). The tackles ... debatable for me.

Not getting a QB in the first round though is a failure and indictment on the front office. Hurts is a waste of a pick for us imo. Also don't know how two running backs in the first two rounds makes sense, it's just too fungible a position to invest that much in a single draft. Either one of those guys (or Dobbins) I'd be fine with, but not two. Take one of those guys and then use FA to pick up a compliment.

I do find it interesting that you only pull a single OL player in before Wilson with the Mr. Irrelevant pick.

"texanphinatic wrote:

Okudah is a fine player (and easily the top CB), but imo a CB is not a culture builder. A CB is not a roster changer.

You have to get a QB at that spot, or failing that, a LT or rusher. A top 5 pick has to be a tone setter, I just don't see Okudah as being that, as good as I think he may become. Outside the QB's, I see Young and Simmons as the tone setters here (with the QBs being more risk but also more reward). The tackles ... debatable for me.

Not getting a QB in the first round though is a failure and indictment on the front office. Hurts is a waste of a pick for us imo. Also don't know how two running backs in the first two rounds makes sense, it's just too fungible a position to invest that much in a single draft. Either one of those guys (or Dobbins) I'd be fine with, but not two. Take one of those guys and then use FA to pick up a compliment.

I do find it interesting that you only pull a single OL player in before Wilson with the Mr. Irrelevant pick.

Here's the thing- Taylor would be my #1 overall RB due to his versatility...for those who don't follow college ball, he's like a Derrick Henry type player who can run you over then outrun your friend beside you. I don't think he should drop to the back of the 2nd round but if he did, then he would be the BPA in my opinion and you have to draft him. With that said, I don't see how you pass on Swift when it's one of our biggest needs because that makes you go for Taylor earlier.

For the #5 overall, I know everyone wants Tua or Herbert...but I think we have to draft value with that high of a pick. If it's not a QB then it has to be Wirfs, Simmons or Odukah....and two of them could be off the board if nobody jumps up for Tua ahead of us. Wirfs essentially replaces Tunsil and Simmons replaces Minkah; I personally think they're both gone though. Honestly, I hope someone trades up to #3 with the Lions for Tua!

I don't think not taking a 1st round QB is a failure at all though, especially if they think Rosen could be the guy. If they have high confidence in him then we're not taking a QB early....it will be Hurts, Love or maybe Fromm or Eason. Of all the 2nd tier guys I think Hurts shows the most and he could end up being the best QB of the entire draft in a Baltimore-type offense. I just don't like Tua or Herbert enough for #5 (or higher) overall...Tua scares the heck out of me since he's had three surgeries (ankle, ankle, hip) in the past 15 months.

Herbert, on he other hand, reminds me so much of a rookie Tannehill...you know, the QB we just gave away! Here's a few of the positives/negatives an NFL scout saw with him-

Strengths

• Great size with filled-out, pro-ready frame

• Full-field reader with experience in pro passing concepts

• Operates with pre-snap plan and recognizes matchup advantages

• Play-actions are bought and sold

• Ball tucked near frame when scanning

• Scans crisply through full slate of progressions without panic

• Eyeballs deep safety, keeping him planted midfield

• Played with better poise and calmer feet than in 2018

• Throwing process is well-balanced, quiet and repeatable

• Rocket arm can beat rangy safeties and keep tight windows alive

• Able to alter arm slots to work around traffic

• Fluid stride and throw rolling in either direction

• Has zone-read ability and can roll downhill once he's flushed from the pocket

• Put three rushing touchdowns on Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl

Weaknesses

Disappointing impact as passer over final four games
Play is more mechanical than maestro
Scouts say he leads by example but is not a commanding presence
Has issues finding touch on his tool belt
Flat throws found linebackers with interceptions/deflections
Toggles between caution and worry attacking first two levels
Uneasy challenging zone corners on high/low combos
Needs to trust his eyes and let it go in rhythm
Ball placement to lead receivers can be better
Deep shots and fades need more air under the ball
Struggles to escape sudden pressure

Let's see- tanked at the end of the year, has self-confidence problems, isn't really a leader, struggles with touch, plays safe since he doesn't trust his instincts on short passes, and can't handle sudden pressure. That's EXACTLY the guy we just let walk for EXACTLY those same reasons! I saw that on tape throughout the last few games of the year, by the way, so I'm not just quoting some random opinion...it's only verifying what I already thought.

So if it's no to Tua and it's no to Herbert....what QB do we draft in the first round? I'd be okay moving up for Burrow but it may not be a legit option. Do we take Love at #5 when we could have him at the end of the 1st or even early 2nd? I just don't see a #5 quarterback we can take comfortably. That's why I'm taking whoever is there out of Wirfs, Simmons or Odukah.

For what it's worth, if all three were available then I'd be all over Simmons! He's a freaking beast with ability and speed. When asked what position he plays at the combine, he said "Defense." The only one not laughing in the room was Simmons because you could literally line him up anywhere.

Sorry KeyFin, but I would be seriously disappointed with this. The only guys I like as prospects from that projection are Jonathan Taylor and Kyle Dugger (though you're not going to sniff either of those two at the spots you're projecting).

Aside from that, most of your choices are heavy developmental guys. Jalen Hurts, Josh Jones, and Yetur Gross-Matos are all raw with high-bust potential. We need to hit on those early choices with as much certainty as possible.

... and this is nothing more than speculation, but I think Okudah is going to bust hard.

I'm projecting something like this:

1: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
1: A.J. Epenesa, DL5T, Iowa
1: Jonathan Taylor, RBF, Wisconsin
2: Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn
2: Ashtyn Davis, S, California
3: Josh Uche, OLB, Michigan
4: Thaddeus Moss, TE, LSU
5: James Proche, WRS, SMU
5: Oluwole Betiku, EDGE, Illinois
6: Frederick Mauigua, OC, Washington State
6: A.J. Dillon, FB, Boston College
6: Bravvion Roy, DL1T, Baylor
7: Stanford Samuels III, CB, Florida State

Overall, this is a rock-solid class with plenty of immediate help and low-bust potential across the board. I am lukewarm about Epenesa and Wanogho; I think they'll be fine, but nothing special. There's a chance Mekhi Becton slips to 18 with the rise of Wirfs (in which case, he would obviously be the choice). At that point, I'd punt RB to the 2nd or 3rd round and select the best defensive player available with that last first round pick. Think Diggs, McKinney, etc.

Other than that, there's a ton of coaching connections in Davis, Uche, and Betiku, making them clear candidates. You're getting an in-line blocking TE in Moss, allowing the team to move Gesicki to the big slot. You can develop Proche behind your other small slot guys, Mauigua behind Kilgore, and let Dillon duke it out with Cox for FB rights. Roy and Samuels are camp bodies with a slim shot at making the 53. Everyone else is a day one starter.

I like your mock draft over any having us take Tua at #5. If we took Okudah #5, would love to see us take a chance on remaining QB at 18 and then look to fill S, OT or DL at 26.

I don't see any way that Rosen plays a meaningful role in our plans and drafting based on the assumption that he does... No thanks personally.

I think under no condition do we draft anything other than a QB with our first pick.

Let me paint for you the absolute worst case scenario:

1 - Cin - Joe Burrow
2 - Wash - Chase Young
3 - LA (trade) - Tua Tagovailoa
4 - CAR (trade) - Justin Herbert

In this scenario, I would go ahead and draft Jordan Love. I don't see how we have the season that we have and not walk away with a solid QB prospect. At this point in the NFL, teams are fully aware of just how valuable the QB position is. Teams are going to need to be picking earlier and earlier to get these guys. If there is even a chance a QB could be the guy, they will probably go in the top half of the first round.

Moreover, I fully expect that next season, we will return to the problem that made the Dolphins the Dolphins. The entire Tannehill era, we were mediocre. It always felt like we were somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 making a top tier prospect out of reach.

Laurence and Fields could be unobtainable at pick 3. Realistically, we need to seriously consider the fact that Tua/Herbert/Love (whoever is available when we pick) may be the best chance we have at landing a top flight QB in the next decade.

Draft now - deal with he consequences later

I wouldn't draft Love at 5. He may indeed be the fourth best QB in the draft, but that doesn't mean he's going to be a superstar for us, and if we're not drafting a superstar, what the hell are we doing taking him at 5?

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I wouldn't draft Love at 5. He may indeed be the fourth best QB in the draft, but that doesn't mean he's going to be a superstar for us, and if we're not drafting a superstar, what the hell are we doing taking him at 5?

I agree completely- I wouldn't draft Herbert of Love at #5 just because they're the best QB remaining...take them only if you're sold that they're 10-year franchise guys.

It wouldn't shock me to see Tua available at #5 though since a lot of GM's are throwing up smokescreens this time of year. And besides, wanting to trade up and actually being able to trade up are two different things. There are no guarantees that #3 or #4 will change hands.

"KeyFin wrote:

I agree completely- I wouldn't draft Herbert of Love at #5 just because they're the best QB remaining...take them only if you're sold that they're 10-year franchise guys.

It wouldn't shock me to see Tua available at #5 though since a lot of GM's are throwing up smokescreens this time of year. And besides, wanting to trade up and actually being able to trade up are two different things. There are no guarantees that #3 or #4 will change hands.

I honestly couldn't say what's going to happen at 3 or 4. I could see Detroit or NY asking too much and scaring away the Chargers and Panthers.

I will explode with anger if we draft Jeff Okudah with our first fkin pick in this draft! Sorry, this mock is terrible based on that selection alone. Hurts will be long gone by round three. We can't afford to get cute or cheap with the quarterback position any longer. Now is the time to find a franchise quarterback and with the fifth pick in the draft, that pick needs to be Burrow, Tua, or Herbert. I don't give a shit which at this point. Pick one and lets go.

It hurts to see Hurts.

"KeyFin wrote:

This may change as we get closer to pick day, but here's the draft I'm hoping for in a completely balanced draft. I didn't trade any to keep it simple-

1:5 Jeffrey Okudah CB Ohio State
1:18 Yetur Gross-Matos EDGE Penn State
1:26 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia
2:7 Josh Jones OT Houston
2:24 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin
3:6 Jalen Hurts QB Oklahoma
4:29 Kyle Dugger SS Lenoir-Rhyne
5:16 K'Von Wallace FS Clemson
5:27 McTelvin Agim DL Arkansas
6:6 Nevelle Clarke CB Central Florida
6:18 Jonathan Garvin EDGE Miami
7:32 Isaiah Wilson G Georgia

I know most of you won't like Hurts as the QB prospect, but Odukah gives us two stud CB's and Groos-Matos to get after QB's. I doubled down on RB's early as well since Swift is a dynamic speedster and Taylor will flat out run over you- it's a luxury that's tough to afford on paper, but it completely changes this offense as well. Meanwhile, we add Jones at tackle and grab a number of feisty upgrades across the defensive side of the ball.

We likely turn to free agency for two guards, start Fitzpatrick and sprinkle in some Jalen in the Wildcat. Meanwhile, we turn to the run game with our shiny new RB's and a secondary that can actually generate some 3 and outs.

Thoughts? LOL, let the Tua anger commence!

Nice thoughts. If it's me, I am going QB at #5 and then trading back at 1:18 AND 1:26 for more picks unless one of my targeted players is there. Then, I am using the extra draft capital to move around and grab only targeted players that fit our system. Kiper will probably be venting his spleen over it and saying that I over-drafted some guys, but who cares. This is a deep draft. I am going for quantity and hope my scouting and player development down the road can help me deliver quality.

"KeyFin wrote:

This may change as we get closer to pick day, but here's the draft I'm hoping for in a completely balanced draft. I didn't trade any to keep it simple-

1:5 Jeffrey Okudah CB Ohio State
1:18 Yetur Gross-Matos EDGE Penn State
1:26 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia
2:7 Josh Jones OT Houston
2:24 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin
3:6 Jalen Hurts QB Oklahoma
4:29 Kyle Dugger SS Lenoir-Rhyne
5:16 K'Von Wallace FS Clemson
5:27 McTelvin Agim DL Arkansas
6:6 Nevelle Clarke CB Central Florida
6:18 Jonathan Garvin EDGE Miami
7:32 Isaiah Wilson G Georgia

I know most of you won't like Hurts as the QB prospect, but Odukah gives us two stud CB's and Groos-Matos to get after QB's. I doubled down on RB's early as well since Swift is a dynamic speedster and Taylor will flat out run over you- it's a luxury that's tough to afford on paper, but it completely changes this offense as well. Meanwhile, we add Jones at tackle and grab a number of feisty upgrades across the defensive side of the ball.

We likely turn to free agency for two guards, start Fitzpatrick and sprinkle in some Jalen in the Wildcat. Meanwhile, we turn to the run game with our shiny new RB's and a secondary that can actually generate some 3 and outs.

Thoughts? LOL, let the Tua anger commence!

There is no way Isaiah Wilson lasts till the 7th unless he knocks over a bank before draft day. Among the Right Tackles, he is no worse than top 4.

"MrClean wrote:

There is no way Isaiah Wilson lasts till the 7th unless he knocks over a bank before draft day. Among the Right Tackles, he is no worse than top 4.

You could be right...I just went thru the mock simulator until I could replicate the draft three times. Since he was my very last pick, I honestly don't know anything about him other than he had a solid year.

I love the honesty

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

They have to take a QB with their first pick.

Okudah has diva/jerk written all over him.

There is zero chance they are going to draft two running backs in the first 55 picks or whatever the number is.

Hurts isn't going to be there in the third round.

How so??

I would love Jonathan Taylor in this draft. I can't understand why he is the #5 rb on most boards. He is a big physical back that will get tough yards and until the combine I had no idea he was that fast. The run that pushed me over the top was , I think, in the Big Ten championship . Wisconsin was backed up to their end zone the handed him the ball straight up the middle, and twenty yards later he had taken over half of the other team up the field. That was impressive.

If were going to take rb, he is the guy. I'm telling you!

"Tin Indian wrote:

I would love Jonathan Taylor in this draft. I can't understand why he is the #5 rb on most boards. He is a big physical back that will get tough yards and until the combine I had no idea he was that fast. The run that pushed me over the top was , I think, in the Big Ten championship . Wisconsin was backed up to their end zone the handed him the ball straight up the middle, and twenty yards later he had taken over half of the other team up the field. That was impressive.

If were going to take rb, he is the guy. I'm telling you!

I like him a lot as well, but he does have a relatively high fumble rate, and isn't the best blocker or pass catcher. The latter two issues are as much that he just wasn't asked to do it much at Wisconsin versus him actually not being good. By all accounts, he seems ok, but not necessarily elite at those aspects. Swift and Dobbins are more complete and versatile, though may not be as good a pure runner.

The big athletic RB I want is Dillon. He killed it at the combine showing off plus speed... for a 250 pound back that is amazing.

I fear he will rise up the draft board out of our price range... I was hoping to snag him late 3rd or in the 4th round.

I have watched Dillon all season and I love his cut ability... he can start and stop and his first three steps he can pull away from linebackers with his burst and acceleration. He is not a guy that will run a 4.30 in the 40... but his acceleration is world class and he is 250 pounds.

Dude just killed it running a 4.5 in my opinion.. He showed he was much faster than some thought possible.

Dillon is a smart running that can wait for blocks and or make his own hole when needed... He is a willing blocker... So with time and coaching plus his size... I think that will be another strength

Want, want, want this guy on the Dolphins.

"texanphinatic wrote:

I like him a lot as well, but he does have a relatively high fumble rate, and isn't the best blocker or pass catcher. The latter two issues are as much that he just wasn't asked to do it much at Wisconsin versus him actually not being good. By all accounts, he seems ok, but not necessarily elite at those aspects. Swift and Dobbins are more complete and versatile, though may not be as good a pure runner.

He had a high drop rate as a receiver too. 8 drops on 50 catchable career passes. Between that and how much he fumbles, he is the last runner I'd want among the top group. I'd prefer Moss, Clyde E-H, Akers, or Eno Benjamin, at like 56 or 70 overall.