NFL.com Predicts All Regular Season Records

I think this list is way off.

The teams he has at the bottom are probably going to do much better then that. I feel the Jets have the highest upside compared to the Dolphins, but I expect them both to play above .500 this year.

Predictions are very useful. :dunno:

"Sceeto wrote:

Predictions are very useful. :dunno:

Who said they were?

Patriots 10-6
Jets 9-7
Bills 7-9
Dolphins 0-16

Bills and Jets both improved and think they will battle for wild card spots. Dolphins just plain suck and I hope Griese is fired after the season. I dont want him anywhere near Miami drafting a QB We are probably stuck with Flores for at least three years and he shouldn't be judged too harshly for the crap he's been given.....at least this year. Ross has to go. The guy is an imbecile. Over a decade of owning a football team and he still has no clue. Hopefully he sells or passes it on to his kids but he has to go. Nothing will improve while Ross is owner unless it's by accident or luck

Dolphins suck... were you expecting a playoff team the same year as the coaching staff got cleaned out and the GM replaced?

S. W. A. G.

"Galant wrote:

Who said they were?

It's no offense to you. It's just another...ok, we/re going to suck. That's new.

"Galant wrote:

Game by game predictions in the video.

AFC E starts at 18:46

Pats - 13-3 (#1 Seed AFC)
Bills - 8-8 (#2 in AFC East)
Jets - 3-13 (#4 in AFC East)
Dolphins - 3-13 (#3 in AFC East)

Dolphins prediction starts at 25:14.

This is what happens when you ignore statistics.

This guy has a total of 7 teams finishing with 3 wins or less LOL.. (Bengals, Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, Titans, 49ers and Cardinals). Since the 16 game schedule began in 1978, in 40 seasons (excluding the strike shortened 1982 season where only 9 games were played) the maximum number of teams with 3 or fewer wins was in 1991 and in 2016 where you had 4 teams with 3 or fewer wins.

The average number of teams per 16-game season with 3 or fewer wins is 2.05 and he has 7 such teams LOL. Oh, and the probability of having 7 such teams given historical data is 0.000345%. Yeah I think we can ignore his predictions.

"Sceeto wrote:

It's no offense to you. It's just another...ok, we/re going to suck. That's new.

Sorry man. Case of no tone when typing on the internet. I wasn't offended, I didn't understand your point. At least as far as the fact that I didn't post that video to be 'useful', and I don't think NFL.com created it to be useful. More just a talking point.

"cbrad wrote:

This is what happens when you ignore statistics.

This guy has a total of 7 teams finishing with 3 wins or less LOL.. (Bengals, Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, Titans, 49ers and Cardinals). Since the 16 game schedule began in 1978, in 40 seasons (excluding the strike shortened 1982 season where only 9 games were played) the maximum number of teams with 3 or fewer wins was in 1991 and in 2016 where you had 4 teams with 3 or fewer wins.

The average number of teams per 16-game season with 3 or fewer wins is 2.05 and he has 7 such teams LOL. Oh, and the probability of having 7 such teams given historical data is 0.000345%. Yeah I think we can ignore his predictions.

Nice insight.
His approach seems to have been just a gut instinct approach based on what he knows of each team and taking it a game at a time, and to that extent, it's essentially the same as most of us do when faced with a schedule release and try to guess what the win total might be for the year.

Does he also have too may teams with high win totals?
Could we spot any possible tendency for people to rate teams too negatively or positively in general, when taking this approach?

"cbrad wrote:

This is what happens when you ignore statistics.

This guy has a total of 7 teams finishing with 3 wins or less LOL.. (Bengals, Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, Titans, 49ers and Cardinals). Since the 16 game schedule began in 1978, in 40 seasons (excluding the strike shortened 1982 season where only 9 games were played) the maximum number of teams with 3 or fewer wins was in 1991 and in 2016 where you had 4 teams with 3 or fewer wins.

The average number of teams per 16-game season with 3 or fewer wins is 2.05 and he has 7 such teams LOL. Oh, and the probability of having 7 such teams given historical data is 0.000345%. Yeah I think we can ignore his predictions.

Rarely are the "analysts" realistic with these predictions. I'm not expecting playoffs for us, but there's always been decent parity in the league and games are typically pretty competitive. Sometimes the difference between 6-10 and 10-6 are a few close losses.

I'm starting to sound like Adam Gase.. lol.

"Galant wrote:

Nice insight.
His approach seems to have been just a gut instinct approach based on what he knows of each team and taking it a game at a time, and to that extent, it's essentially the same as most of us do when faced with a schedule release and try to guess what the win total might be for the year.

Does he also have too may teams with high win totals?
Could we spot any possible tendency for people to rate teams too negatively or positively in general, when taking this approach?

Most definitely, there will be more teams in the middle of the pack, I think. The league is pretty competitive overall, which is why football is awesome.

"Galant wrote:

Nice insight.
His approach seems to have been just a gut instinct approach based on what he knows of each team and taking it a game at a time, and to that extent, it's essentially the same as most of us do when faced with a schedule release and try to guess what the win total might be for the year.

Does he also have too may teams with high win totals?
Could we spot any possible tendency for people to rate teams too negatively or positively in general, when taking this approach?

Here I'll let you decide:

The guy has NO 6 or 7 win teams in his predictions.. note what the distribution normally looks like. Crap predictions.

EDIT: just noticed I missed another 2-win team prediction he makes: the Redskins (that graph on the left has only 31 teams). So that actually makes 8 teams with 3 or fewer wins he's predicting.

IMO, the only way to predict the records of a number of teams, let alone the whole league, is by going through game by game and picking them all. Thankfully, that is now easier than ever.

https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/CustomLeague/SchedulePicker/0E700630-E7FC-43DB-92EA-9E71507C57C9

I personally don't see more than one or two teams in the whole league finishing with fewer than five wins. That can change due to someone being totally blindsided by injuries of course.

"cbrad wrote:

Here I'll let you decide:

The guy has NO 6 or 7 win teams in his predictions.. note what the distribution normally looks like. Crap predictions.

EDIT: just noticed I missed another 2-win team prediction he makes: the Redskins (that graph on the left has only 31 teams). So that actually makes 8 teams with 3 or fewer wins he's predicting.

Every author of these prediction articles should see that right chart before they begin to type.

"invid wrote:

Every author of these prediction articles should see that right chart before they begin to type.

Yup, they all tend to vastly overdue the number of teams below 5 wins and over 11.

Yeah as hope the Fins can prove everybody wrong. Need a fresh overhaul this year.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

Yup, they all tend to vastly overdue the number of teams below 5 wins and over 11.

How many clicks are you going to get if you say “your team will be 7-9 or 9-7 and be mediocre and miss the playoffs”?
How many clicks do you get if you say “your team is a 3-13 basket case” or “your team is going 13-3 and has a good chance of winning it all”.

You have to differentiate between analysis and click bait.

"Pauly wrote:

How many clicks are you going to get if you say “your team will be 7-9 or 9-7 and be mediocre and miss the playoffs”?
How many clicks do you get if you say “your team is a 3-13 basket case” or “your team is going 13-3 and has a good chance of winning it all”.

You have to differentiate between analysis and click bait.

Where can I find a number of serious, in depth articles about the topic? Because that's what I want.

The writers at NFL.com are just as bored as we are and, a little less insightful.

"cbrad wrote:

This is what happens when you ignore statistics.

This guy has a total of 7 teams finishing with 3 wins or less LOL.. (Bengals, Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, Titans, 49ers and Cardinals). Since the 16 game schedule began in 1978, in 40 seasons (excluding the strike shortened 1982 season where only 9 games were played) the maximum number of teams with 3 or fewer wins was in 1991 and in 2016 where you had 4 teams with 3 or fewer wins.

The average number of teams per 16-game season with 3 or fewer wins is 2.05 and he has 7 such teams LOL. Oh, and the probability of having 7 such teams given historical data is 0.000345%. Yeah I think we can ignore his predictions.

You should post that in the video's comment section. Do it for the Trawlphins!