On whether it's worthwhile to tank for a QB
71 replies
There’s been a lot of talk recently about whether or not it’s really necessary to tank in order to get a quality QB. After last Sunday’s crushing defeat and the perspective that seemed to provide as to just how much we’re going to struggle this year, I know a lot of people are concerned that being THIS BAD just isn’t worth it.
People throw out names like Mahomes and Watson who were taken in the same draft at #10 and #12, respectively. People cite mid-rounders like Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott as evidence that you can still nab guys later in the draft who can play well enough to earn large contracts. Of course, one could also cite examples of guys like Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Derek Carr as QBs taken outside the top-15 that produced quality play for their teams, too.
TBH, that’s all well and good. I get it. Maybe there are quality options outside the top picks in the draft? Maybe tanking isn’t necessary? Maybe that’s going over-board?
Well, if that didn’t convince you. Here’s an even scarier argument! Take a look at some of the busts that’ve been taken highly. There are a slew of guys who are recent picks but who played so badly you barely remember they came out.
I went all the way back to 2008 and counted 28 QBs taken in R1. Here’s how they look by draft position:
1 – Stafford / Bradford / Newton / Luck / Winston / Goff / Mayfield / Murray
2 – Griffin / Mariota / Wentz / Trubisky
3 – Ryan / Bortles / Darnold
4
5 – Sanchez
6 – Jones
7 – Allen
8 – Locker / Tannehill
9
10 – Gabbert / Mahomes / Rosen
11
12 – Ponder / Watson
13
14
15 – Haskins
16 – Manuel
17 – Freeman
18 – Flacco
19
20
21
22 – Weeden / Manziel
23
24
25 – Tebow
26 – Lynch
27
28
29
30
31
32 – Bridgewater / Jackson
Just look at some of those names. Some were so bad you barely remember them playing: Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, etc. You literally only remember these guys BECAUSE of posts like the one I’m making now that bring their names back into your brain.
Then there are those guys who just make you cringe: Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Johnny Manziel, etc. Oof.
Even then there are still guys who flat out sucked (Josh Freeman) as well as others who had issues that essentially turned them into journeyman (Griffin, Bradford, Bridgewater, etc.) And these are guys taken over the last 12 years! Just saying…that’s a lot of misses. That’s enough to scare me into questioning whether you should even drop a R1 pick on a QB!
I’ve often said that the dominance of pocket passers in the mid-00’s is partially to blame for teams getting overly-excited about the QB position.
There was a significant period there where you basically weren’t relevant as a franchise unless you had a Hall of Fame QB. There were at least 6 of those QBs all dueling it out: Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Rivers and Brees. You could also throw Kurt Warner into that mix as his time in Arizona gave that team an incredible offense that put them in the Super Bowl.
Point being, those guys were setting records left and right and trading off Super Bowls one after the other:
2003 – Brady
2004 – Brady
2005 – Roethlisberger
2006 – P. Manning
2007 – E. Manning (vs. Brady)
2008 – Roethlisberger (vs. Warner)
2009 – Brees (vs. P. Manning)
2010 – Rodgers (vs. Roethlisberger)
2011 – E. Manning (vs. Brady)
After that ridiculous period of QB-dominance I would forgive someone if they came away thinking that success in the NFL was merely governed by who a team had at QB. For basically a decade straight it didn’t seem like you could win a Super Bowl unless you had one of those 7-8 guys.
But as I just laid out, the last 12 years have been sort of ugly in terms of drafting QBs. A lot of guys have been elevated up into R1 that probably should never have been there.
For the sake of fairness I’m going to ignore the last 2 drafts. We haven’t seen much from Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Murray, Jones or Haskins. It’s not yet clear whether they’re hits or misses at this point. Let’s agree it’s too early to judge those guys at this moment.
So for the guys with at least 200 passing attempts, here’s a quick list which I’ve sorted in order of career passer rating:
>110:
113 - Mahomes
100-110:
103 – Watson
>95 - 100:
>90 - 95:
95 – Ryan
95 – Goff
93 – Wentz
90 – Mariota
90 – Luck
>85 – 90:
89 – Stafford
89 – Griffin
87 – Tannehill
87 – Winston
86 – Newton
86 – Trubisky
86 – Bridgewater
>80 – 85:
85 – Bradford
84 – Flacco
81 – Bortles
<80:
79 – Locker
78 – Freeman
77 – Manuel
76 – Weeden
76 – Ponder
75 – Tebow
74 – Manziel
73 – Sanchez
72 – Gabbert
First thing to note is that the average passing rating is 85. That’s not far from the league average. It means that on average these R1 QBs can at least play NFL football even if they don’t light the world on fire.
Second thing to note is that there are way more misses and duds than big-time hits. We talk about R1 QBs like they’re reliable upgrades but that’s not the case. Sure, a R1 guy has a better chance of being a star than a R5 pick—obviously—but to expect to get a good QB just because it’s R1 is naïve.
Consider that our very own Ryan Tannehill ranks 10th on this list of 26 guys. Think about that. We ditched him because of lackluster performance and he was the 10th BEST GUY!!!
Second thing to note is that there is no floor. Some of the busts are EPIC. And they’re all different. Some are injuries. Some are lack of ability. Some involve drugs and scandal. And that’s not saying anything about the punishment associated with just going to a bad team!
But the real question is whether it’s worth it to tank in order to move from #15 down inside the top-5. That’s what people want to know. I’m not going to sway anyone from picking QB in R1 despite all the scary stuff I’ve just laid out:
Yes, in the race to find the next Hall of Fame franchise QB a lot of guys got over-drafted.
Yes, the odds of finding an elite QB in R1 are slim.
Yes, the potential to draft someone who ends up a complete bust is real.
But most of us still favor drafting a QB. The question is whether guys are right when they point to Watson and Mahomes and say, ‘you can get good QBs outside the top picks, too!’
Is that really true or is it cherry-picking?
Well, if I ignore the guys from the last couple drafts (as well as Lamar Jackson who has fewer than 200 passing attempts) and make a list of just the guys I would have preferred to have ended up with it would like this:
Luck, Mahomes, Stafford, Newton, Goff, Wentz, Ryan, Watson
Their average draft position is 3.6. So if you want to land someone who’s REALLY GOOD, you’d better have a top-3 pick.
If I look at the average of the rest of the QBs who range from solid down to complete bust it comes to 11.9.
For the record, the "rest" include these guys: Mariota, Griffin, Tannehill, Winston, Trubisky, Bridgewater, Bradford, Flacco, Bortles, Locker, Freeman, Manuel, Weeden, Ponder, Tebow, Manziel, Sanchez and Gabbert.
I have left out Lamar Jackson and Paxton Lynch because of lack of playing time.
Soooo, yeah. There you go.
I think that if you want to maximize your chances of landing a true franchise guy you need to do better than the middle of R1. You really need to be amongst those very top picks.
If I isolate the guys we’ve seen taken in the top-3 it looks like this:
1 – Stafford / Bradford / Newton / Luck / Winston / Goff / Mayfield / Murray
2 – Griffin / Mariota / Wentz / Trubisky
3 – Ryan / Bortles / Darnold
Here they are by career passer rating:
95 – Ryan
95 – Goff
93 – Wentz
90 – Mariota
90 – Luck
89 – Stafford
89 – Griffin
87 – Winston
86 – Trubisky
86 – Newton
85 – Bradford
81 – Bortles
That’s a pretty tight group!
The outlier is Blake Bortles and he’s still only at 81. The rest are basically as good or better than Ryan Tannehill who again, wasn’t terrible. And while the best guy (Mahomes) isn’t on that list, there are several who are capable of winning league MVP: Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck.
And that’s not even factoring in what Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray end up doing before it’s all said and done!
I don’t know how this makes all of you feel but it’s REALLY comforting information to me. It makes me think that regardless of who we draft, we’re pretty sure to end up with a guy who can play. So barring injury issues like those of Sam Bradford for instance (which are rare) I think there’s a strong chance that what Miami’s doing will ultimately end up a relatively safe bet.
So how badly did teams have to do to get up into the top-3 picks?
Well, first off, it took the Colts going 2-14 to get Luck at #1. It took the Lions going 0-16 to get Stafford at #1. It took the Panthers going 2-14 to get Newton at #1. It took the Falcons going 4-12 to get Matt Ryan at #3. So for the teams that HIT it usually meant doing really badly.
The exceptions would be Goff and Wentz. Both the Rams and Eagles went 7-9 and found ways to trade up into the #1 and #2 picks of the draft. But we'd be remiss if we didn't point out that was only possible because STUPID TEAMS like the Browns and Dolphins helped them make those trades!
So just how badly does a team need to do in order to get into the top of the draft (excluding a trade)?
Since 2008, the average team that earned the #1 spot won 1.4 games.
Since 2008, the average team that earned the #2 spot won 2.0 games.
Since 2008, the average team that earned the #3 spot won 2.5 games.
So if you want to assure yourself a top pick, you had better have essentially the worst season in franchise history.
The moral of the story is that when someone asks whether or not it’s worth it to be drafting inside the top-3 the answer is a resounding YES!
Yes, it is definitely worth it given the outcomes we've seen over the last decade. HOWEVER, the price to be paid is steep. You need to be historically bad and flirt with disaster. The Browns and Lions both went 0-16 while the Dolphins went 1-15.
But keep in mind that selecting amongst the top-3 not only increases your odds of finding a true franchise guy by a HUGE AMOUNT but it's also somewhat "safe" in that you probably aren't going to draft a bust like you might if you were picking between #10 and #32.
So the next time the Dolphins get whooped and you find yourself on the fence, go back and read this post again.
Surfs Up 99Forum VeteranExcellent write up! I enjoyed reading it! I just worry that Grier will take the Ryan Leaf of the class. I hope Tua is the clear favorite so he can’t screw it up.
Leadership isn't getting people to line up behind you; it is getting them to join you.
Sometimes the journey is as important as the destination.
The little things matter. Winning starts by not beating ourselves.
Mornings are for coffee and contemplation.
Team Tua.
Miami Dolphins Homer!
I'm not entirely sure Chris Grier (or Brian Flores) will end up being the ones charged with rebuilding this whole operation.
With the reports we're hearing, Brian Flores and his staff are quickly losing respect. He may have lost the team by mid-way through the year. If that process were to happen wherein the players give up on Flores, there would be no going back.
But more interestingly, Grier is assembling these picks and good on him for doing it. However, there's no guarantee that he's ultimately the one making them. It would be quite easy to lure in a more qualified GM candidate given that Miami will enter the next era with more draft / FA capitol than any other NFL team.
Just food for thought.
"DolphinGreg wrote:
I'm not entirely sure Chris Grier (or Brian Flores) will end up being the ones charged with rebuilding this whole operation.
With the reports we're hearing, Brian Flores and his staff are quickly losing respect. He may have lost the team by mid-way through the year. If that process were to happen wherein the players give up on Flores, there would be no going back.
But more interestingly, Grier is assembling these picks and good on him for doing it. However, there's no guarantee that he's ultimately the one making them. It would be quite easy to lure in a more qualified GM candidate given that Miami will enter the next era with more draft / FA capitol than any other NFL team.
Just food for thought.
Great write up!
However, I disagree that Flores is losing the team or respect. I think the players are pissed off and they should be. However, this is the youngest team in the league. Most of these guys were in college a few short years ago and most of them came from decent programs. They are not used to losing so badly. The NFL is a big change and when you get kids without fully formed frontal lobes trying to turn chicken shit into chicken salad there will be some hiccups.
I think Flores is too strong of a guy to not be able to handle the locker room. He has surrounded himself with some good veteran coaches.
"danmarino wrote:
Great write up!
However, I disagree that Flores is losing the team or respect. I think the players are pissed off and they should be. However, this is the youngest team in the league. Most of these guys were in college a few short years ago and most of them came from decent programs. They are not used to losing so badly. The NFL is a big change and when you get kids without fully formed frontal lobes trying to turn chicken **** into chicken salad there will be some hiccups.
I think Flores is too strong of a guy to not be able to handle the locker room. He has surrounded himself with some good veteran coaches.
Well, the reason you're not allowed to publicly admit that you're tanking is because your players won't stand for it. Not a single guy is going to go out there and play for you if you admit you aren't competing.
Football is too dangerous and careers are too short. If you're a player you simply don't have time to put up with someone wasting a year of your career on a gamble. That's just not something you'll risk.
And between not spending any money this off-season, releasing who we did, trading a couple of proven players and the debacle that was last Sunday's butt-whooping it's now official that the 2019 Miami Dolphins are tanking.
I didn't believe it either. I made a lot of excuses and talked all off-season about how it was just part 1 of a long-term rebuild, but now I regret that. We truly are tanking and the entire world knows it.
For that reason, we are getting strong reports (being confirmed by other reports) that multiple players are giving up and asking to be traded. I've seen teams go 0-16 that were bad, but I can't recall a time when after 1 game you had multiple guys asking to be entirely removed from the situation.
This is unexplored territory for sure.
That's a mutiny you have on your hands dude. I don't care how awesome Brian Flores is. Nobody can withstand a mutiny brought on by the realization that nothing you do matters. These players are concerned that their long-term value is getting diminished (and they may be right).
"DolphinGreg wrote:
I’ve often said that the dominance of pocket passers in the mid-00’s is partially to blame for teams getting overly-excited about the QB position. There was a significant period there where you basically weren’t relevant as a franchise unless you had a Hall of Fame QB.
The need for either a QB that is great over his career or a QB that plays great in the year he won the SB has been a constant since 2003 up to the present day except for 2015 where we need to say Peyton was an exception because he played horrible that year. So it's not just the mid-00's where that was the case. You need a rare set of circumstances to unfold to win the SB without a QB that plays great that year.
Otherwise.. just one word of caution: average passer rating from 2008-2018 went from 83.2 to 92.9 so there's an upward bias of career passer ratings for guys taken later, even in your 12 year period. Won't change your overall argument but it's important to not take those career ratings literally. Have to adjust by league average (just divide by that year's average and multiply by the target year's average).
Here are some useful references:
All QB's taken in the NFL draft: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb
League average passer rating: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm
"cbrad wrote:
The need for either a QB that is great over his career or a QB that plays great in the year he won the SB has been a constant since 2003 up to the present day except for 2015 where we need to say Peyton was an exception because he played horrible that year. So it's not just the mid-00's where that was the case. You need a rare set of circumstances to unfold to win the SB without a QB that plays great that year.
Otherwise.. just one word of caution: average passer rating from 2008-2018 went from 83.2 to 92.9 so there's an upward bias of career passer ratings for guys taken later, even in your 12 year period. Won't change your overall argument but it's important to not take those career ratings literally. Have to adjust by league average (just divide by that year's average and multiply by the target year's average).
Here are some useful references:
All QB's taken in the NFL draft: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb
League average passer rating: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm
Thanks, dude!
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't expecting you to chime in with that, haha. I didn't even attempt to start crunching league averages knowing you'd probably have the info ready to go.
And while I agree that it takes a "special" year out of any QB to reach the Super Bowl (Matt Ryan's recent year would be a perfect example!) I still think it's somewhat undeniable that the continued success of certain franchises was viewed (during the 00's) as a sort of end goal.
If we find our Peyton Manning...
If we find our Tom Brady...
If we find our _____ ...
It just seems like back then that was ALL people cared about.
Back then you were basically guaranteed a yearly Play-off spot if you had one of those "elite" QBs. I'm just not sure we can say the same about the Goff's and Wentz' of the world, you know? Those guys are not carrying bad defenses the way Rodgers, Brees and Peyton Manning.
It was frustrating for everyone else back in the 00's. Now, it seems the league is less top-heavy. Not only have a ton of solid QBs come into the league but the current group just seems less dominated by a few elites and maybe less destined for the Hall of Fame, too. I truly can't say.
"cbrad wrote:
Otherwise.. just one word of caution: average passer rating from 2008-2018 went from 83.2 to 92.9 so there's an upward bias of career passer ratings for guys taken later, even in your 12 year period. Won't change your overall argument but it's important to not take those career ratings literally. Have to adjust by league average (just divide by that year's average and multiply by the target year's average).
League average passer rating: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm
It's interesting that the league average passer rating was pretty consistent between 2008 and 2017. It varied between 83 and 89.
Then all of a sudden last year it jumps all the way up to 93. That's pretty incredible.
Still, it looks like throughout the last decade it was more or less always in the mid-to-high 80's (which was what I was assuming).
"danmarino wrote:
Great write up!
I think Flores is too strong of a guy to not be able to handle the locker room. He has surrounded himself with some good veteran coaches.
Jim Caldwell would have been a big help to Flores in this situation, imo.
The GuyForum VeteranAppreciate all the good work. The question for me is, what is the advantage of NOT tanking for the top pick, when a team has an inadequate quarterback and insufficient surrounding talent to compete at a high level?
It could be the case that even though there is a decent chance of getting a great quarterback somewhere beyond the top few picks, there is also nothing significant to lose by tanking, over and above what will already be lost by virtue of having an inadequate quarterback and insufficient surrounding talent.
And if that’s the case, then obviously the argument becomes maximizing your chances to obtain the top projected quarterback by tanking.
KeyFinForum VeteranHere's the only problem I see with that- the top 2-3 quarterbacks in any draft bring a premium....regardless if they're deserving of a 1st round pick. Because the thought is that if you don't take them in the 1st then someone else surely will, even if you have a 3rd round draft grade on them. So I think a lot of folks reach when they shouldn't.
But that wasn't the question- you asked if it's worth it to tank for that #1 overall QB in any given draft. Keep in mind that we could have had Lamar Jackson at 11 last season instead of Minkah and that's who our owner wanted us to draft there, so if he does in fact develop into a star QB...the answer is automatically NO. None of this tanking was necessary if we had properly evaluated the available QB's.
Not that I don't like Minkah, mind you...that's a very good "safe" pick. My larger problem is that Grier went against the owner's advice because he couldn't see what Ross's friends saw.....and by friends I mean Dan Marino, Jim Harbaugh, etc. They liked Jackson and convinced Ross that he was the right pick if he was available.
So now that we're giving up on 2019 and cruising into the 2020 draft with the #1 pick, we're trusting that same person to decide the fate of our entire franchise- what are the odds that he gets it right this time? Your math says "a very good chance in the top 3" but my common sense says, it depends on who declares. The best QB of the class could still be a complete bust if Tua doesn't declare...or Tua himself could be a bust. We just don't know and I already don't trust Grier making the final decision since he probably took the wrong person in the 1st round in the past 2 or 3 drafts.
To answer your question- we have absolutely no idea if tanking is worth it or not. Maybe it gets us the perfect 15 year QB or maybe it yields nothing. I don't think the results from the past dozen years can tell us that since Grier has already made several critical mistakes in evaluating and handling talent. The much larger problem is how we're tanking though- we might have 15 to 20 NFL-caliber players on the roster at this time. We don't just need a quarterback anymore and that in itself is going to take years to fix.
As your analysis showed, Tannehill was the 10th best overall QB pick in the past dozen years and we know he stunk with pressure. Would he have been 9th best overall or better if we actually protected him? Of course he would have. And maybe he's still not the guy even at that point, but right now we have NOTHING to protect that generational, game changing QB we plan to draft. We haven't put together a solid line in 15 years...but Grier is going to do it with 15 total picks?
That's a massive problem all in itself and makes it much more likely that future QB will earn that "bust" label. Because let's face it, no GM has even been this stupid before when it comes to completely dismantling a team in hopes of landing one guy.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
Kud_IIForum VeteranAfter the trades we made, we have 4 first day picks, we can get Tua and the guys to protect him in one draft. So we get the top QB prospect of 2020 and revamp most of the OL in one offseason is worth the tank. It's not just the tank that is significant it is the draft picks we acquired.
So if it's that or forever mediocrity, I'd rather go 0-16 and have a bright future (being actual contenders again) than to keep going 8-8, 9-7, 6-10 ad-nauseum.
Formerly known as IdrA,
formerly known as Kud.
"DolphinGreg wrote:
It's interesting that the league average passer rating was pretty consistent between 2008 and 2017. It varied between 83 and 89.
Then all of a sudden last year it jumps all the way up to 93. That's pretty incredible.
I know.. really amazing. It was the 2nd largest percent increase in passer rating ever with a 6.9% increase, only behind 1979 with its 8.31% increase. Thing is, what happened in 1978 is pretty clear: NFL instituted the illegal contact rule restricting contact to 5 yards, and they also allowed OL to extend their arms and open hands on pass plays. So the result in 1979 makes sense.
But 2019?? Sure, they've constantly made the passing game easier, but there's nothing that stands out like in 1978. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where average passer rating ends up this year. Personally, I'd like to see this persistent passer rating inflation go away and either keep things stable or make rule changes (or changes in interpretation of rules.. like offensive holding!!) that help the defense.
The_Dark_KnightForum VeteranGreat write up and I do agree on qb drafts being a roll of the dice. There have been more busts that beauties in the time span you listed but something I truly feel gets lost in the talk of quarterbacks are coaches.
Mahomes is a GREAT quarterback. I love watching that kid play but...who’s his head coach? Andy Reid, a GREAT coach in his own right.
Brees has Payton
Brady has Belichick
Manning had Dungy
Marino had Shula
Montana had Walsh
You get my point. The list could go on and on. GREAT quarterbacks have great coaches. We’ve had discussions so many times in missed opportunities for certain quarterbacks but in all honesty, does anyone truly think with the recent hot mess we’ve had for coaches here in Miami that Drew Brees or Andrew Luck would have prospered with the Dolphins?
I like Flores. He’s a hard working dedicated coach whom players love but with the current track we’re on, the absence of Jim Caldwell hurts. I just truly hope he’s back in the picture come this off season other, B-Flo may very well be in over his head and we end up becoming the Detroit Lions if South Florida
“The person you will spend the most time with in your life is yourself, so you better make sure you’re someone interesting”
Surfs Up 99Forum VeteranI am still a little perturbed about us not drafting Jackson. I have supported Grier and I want him to succeed; however, I need to start facing the facts. He’s not very good. To make things worse, I believe he thinks he is better than he is. Ross will stick by him though and let him see his vision for the rebuild through. I hope I am wrong but unless he can learn how to properly scout players we will continue to be in a world of hurt. I fear we are sailing on a ship without a rudder.
Leadership isn't getting people to line up behind you; it is getting them to join you.
Sometimes the journey is as important as the destination.
The little things matter. Winning starts by not beating ourselves.
Mornings are for coffee and contemplation.
Team Tua.
Miami Dolphins Homer!
"cbrad wrote:
I know.. really amazing. It was the 2nd largest percent increase in passer rating ever with a 6.9% increase, only behind 1979 with its 8.31% increase. Thing is, what happened in 1978 is pretty clear: NFL instituted the illegal contact rule restricting contact to 5 yards, and they also allowed OL to extend their arms and open hands on pass plays. So the result in 1979 makes sense.
But 2019?? Sure, they've constantly made the passing game easier, but there's nothing that stands out like in 1978. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where average passer rating ends up this year. Personally, I'd like to see this persistent passer rating inflation go away and either keep things stable or make rule changes (or changes in interpretation of rules.. like offensive holding!!) that help the defense.
True and this "grade inflation" problem also starts seeping into how we evaluate QB's. I think it ultimately hurts all of us when *meh* guys like Tannehill grade out okay despite having obvious flaws.
The_Dark_KnightForum VeteranI have a sincere question and I’d like an HONEST well thought out answer...
Is Tua really THAT great because he’s Tua it because he’s coach by one of the greatest college coaches in Nick Saban?
Potential follow up question depending on responses
“The person you will spend the most time with in your life is yourself, so you better make sure you’re someone interesting”
"The_Dark_Knight wrote:
Great write up and I do agree on qb drafts being a roll of the dice. There have been more busts that beauties in the time span you listed but something I truly feel gets lost in the talk of quarterbacks are coaches.
Mahomes is a GREAT quarterback. I love watching that kid play but...who’s his head coach? Andy Reid, a GREAT coach in his own right.
Brees has Payton
Brady has Belichick
Manning had Dungy
Marino had Shula
Montana had WalshYou get my point. The list could go on and on. GREAT quarterbacks have great coaches. We’ve had discussions so many times in missed opportunities for certain quarterbacks but in all honesty, does anyone truly think with the recent hot mess we’ve had for coaches here in Miami that Drew Brees or Andrew Luck would have prospered with the Dolphins?
I like Flores. He’s a hard working dedicated coach whom players love but with the current track we’re on, the absence of Jim Caldwell hurts. I just truly hope he’s back in the picture come this off season other, B-Flo may very well be in over his head and we end up becoming the Detroit Lions if South Florida
I think it's often the case that great QB's have great coaches, but not always.
Peyton is actually the best example where that wasn't the case. Peyton won the SB with Dungy, lost the SB with Caldwell, lost the SB with Fox and won the SB with Kubiak. And that was with 2 different teams. Furthermore, his stats were very good regardless of team and coach.
And Aaron Rodgers is elite while McCarthy isn't. The Guy asked this very same question in a different thread and it's pertinent here.
But yes you're right about the Dolphins not demonstrating they have the right coach (or GM or QB!).
"The_Dark_Knight wrote:
Great write up and I do agree on qb drafts being a roll of the dice. There have been more busts that beauties in the time span you listed but something I truly feel gets lost in the talk of quarterbacks are coaches.
Mahomes is a GREAT quarterback. I love watching that kid play but...who’s his head coach? Andy Reid, a GREAT coach in his own right.
Brees has Payton
Brady has Belichick
Manning had Dungy
Marino had Shula
Montana had WalshYou get my point. The list could go on and on. GREAT quarterbacks have great coaches. We’ve had discussions so many times in missed opportunities for certain quarterbacks but in all honesty, does anyone truly think with the recent hot mess we’ve had for coaches here in Miami that Drew Brees or Andrew Luck would have prospered with the Dolphins?
I like Flores. He’s a hard working dedicated coach whom players love but with the current track we’re on, the absence of Jim Caldwell hurts. I just truly hope he’s back in the picture come this off season other, B-Flo may very well be in over his head and we end up becoming the Detroit Lions if South Florida
Well, I'll give it to you with regard to some of those historically great coaches. I won't argue against Bill Belichick. I think he could build a solid team event without Brady. He spent years and years under Parcells. He had a whole career as an assistant that most guys would dream of having. He'd probably be a consistent Play-off guy even with a mediocre offense one he got things turned around as he was about to do in Cleveland. I think Walsh and Shula were historically significant in their hey-day, too, although I'm not so sure that being a once-great makes you a permanently great. I think having Marino gave a huge boost to Shula's career, especially in the 90's.
But after that, IDK. Without Manning, does Dungy really have success in Indy? Were their defenses any good year-to-year? Not particularly. What about Sean Payton? Is there any reason to believe he'd be successful without Drew Brees. I can't think of any particular reason to make that argument. From a team standpoint they've always been reliant on Brees.
So while I'm sympathetic, I still think it's safe to say that QB precedes HC in terms of importance.
"DolphinGreg wrote:
So while I'm sympathetic, I still think it's safe to say that QB precedes HC in terms of importance.
On that one I disagree though I can't given you a statistical argument because the way data in football databases are formatted makes it REALLY tough to track coach + QB combinations (it's like no one creating the database ever thought this would be an interesting question!!)
My intuition however is that the HC is the most influential individual on a team (once players are picked) with the QB well behind in 2nd place, though no other single player comes remotely close to the QB. The reason I'd say this is because the HC influences all parts of the team while the QB is mostly for the offense, and primarily the passing game. So it's really hard for me to imagine QB > HC in terms of influence.
"KeyFin wrote:
Here's the only problem I see with that- the top 2-3 quarterbacks in any draft bring a premium....regardless if they're deserving of a 1st round pick. Because the thought is that if you don't take them in the 1st then someone else surely will, even if you have a 3rd round draft grade on them. So I think a lot of folks reach when they shouldn't.
But that wasn't the question- you asked if it's worth it to tank for that #1 overall QB in any given draft. Keep in mind that we could have had Lamar Jackson at 11 last season instead of Minkah and that's who our owner wanted us to draft there, so if he does in fact develop into a star QB...the answer is automatically NO. None of this tanking was necessary if we had properly evaluated the available QB's.
Not that I don't like Minkah, mind you...that's a very good "safe" pick. My larger problem is that Grier went against the owner's advice because he couldn't see what Ross's friends saw.....and by friends I mean Dan Marino, Jim Harbaugh, etc. They liked Jackson and convinced Ross that he was the right pick if he was available.
So now that we're giving up on 2019 and cruising into the 2020 draft with the #1 pick, we're trusting that same person to decide the fate of our entire franchise- what are the odds that he gets it right this time? Your math says "a very good chance in the top 3" but my common sense says, it depends on who declares. The best QB of the class could still be a complete bust if Tua doesn't declare...or Tua himself could be a bust. We just don't know and I already don't trust Grier making the final decision since he probably took the wrong person in the 1st round in the past 2 or 3 drafts.
To answer your question- we have absolutely no idea if tanking is worth it or not. Maybe it gets us the perfect 15 year QB or maybe it yields nothing. I don't think the results from the past dozen years can tell us that since Grier has already made several critical mistakes in evaluating and handling talent. The much larger problem is how we're tanking though- we might have 15 to 20 NFL-caliber players on the roster at this time. We don't just need a quarterback anymore and that in itself is going to take years to fix.
As your analysis showed, Tannehill was the 10th best overall QB pick in the past dozen years and we know he stunk with pressure. Would he have been 9th best overall or better if we actually protected him? Of course he would have. And maybe he's still not the guy even at that point, but right now we have NOTHING to protect that generational, game changing QB we plan to draft. We haven't put together a solid line in 15 years...but Grier is going to do it with 15 total picks?
That's a massive problem all in itself and makes it much more likely that future QB will earn that "bust" label. Because let's face it, no GM has even been this stupid before when it comes to completely dismantling a team in hopes of landing one guy.
The whole point of actually studying the historical data is to see what statistical trends are there because that informs you about the likelihood of recurrence.
Anecdotal narratives like you present aren't helpful.
Here's one: Russell Wilson was taken in R3 so you don't need to draft a R1 QB.
That's factually true but it doesn't speak to the probability that it'll work out for you (which is exceedingly low). Arguing that something is possible is entirely different than arguing that it's likely.
You have to get beyond anecdotal narratives.
Even factoring in Mahomes at #10 and Watson at #12 which provide the basis for your anecdotal narrative, we can see that the average draft position of good QBs has been 3.6 because of guys like Luck, Newton, Stafford, Goff, Wentz and Ryan all being taken right at the top of the draft.
That's telling because it means that if you're going to wait on the next Mahomes to fall to #10 you might be waiting 10-12 years.
It'll definitely happen again. The question is whether or not you have 10 years to wait.
If you have 1 shot at it, you probably aren't putting your money on the thing that only happens once a decade. Make sense?
FinatikStaffIn looking at the top 3 picks from your list (which is where were we most likely will be) the chances of getting virtually any one of those guys would be light years better than what we've has since Marion left.
Lots of people will tell you what they think about you and what you shouldn't and should do. Not everyone's thoughts are worth consideration. Don't take criticism from anyone who you wouldn't also go to for advice.
The_Dark_KnightForum Veteran"DolphinGreg wrote:
Well, I'll give it to you with regard to some of those historically great coaches. I won't argue against Bill Belichick. I think he could build a solid team event without Brady. He spent years and years under Parcells. He had a whole career as an assistant that most guys would dream of having. He'd probably be a consistent Play-off guy even with a mediocre offense one he got things turned around as he was about to do in Cleveland. I think Walsh and Shula were historically significant in their hey-day, too, although I'm not so sure that being a once-great makes you a permanently great. I think having Marino gave a huge boost to Shula's career, especially in the 90's.
But after that, IDK. Without Manning, does Dungy really have success in Indy? Were their defenses any good year-to-year? Not particularly. What about Sean Payton? Is there any reason to believe he'd be successful without Drew Brees. I can't think of any particular reason to make that argument. From a team standpoint they've always been reliant on Brees.
So while I'm sympathetic, I still think it's safe to say that QB precedes HC in terms of importance.
I don’t know about your assessment of Dungy. He did take Tampa to the playoffs 3 of the 5 years he was there and set them up for the Super Bowl under Gruden
“The person you will spend the most time with in your life is yourself, so you better make sure you’re someone interesting”
KeyFinForum Veteran"DolphinGreg wrote:
The whole point of actually studying the historical data is to see what statistical trends are there because that informs you about the likelihood of recurrence.
Anecdotal narratives like you present aren't helpful.
Here's one: Russell Wilson was taken in R3 so you don't need to draft a R1 QB.
That's factually true but it doesn't speak to the probability that it'll work out for you (which is exceedingly low). Arguing that something is possible is entirely different than arguing that it's likely.
You have to get beyond anecdotal narratives.
Even factoring in Mahomes at #10 and Watson at #12 which provide the basis for your anecdotal narrative, we can see that the average draft position of good QBs has been 3.6 because of guys like Luck, Newton, Stafford, Goff, Wentz and Ryan all being taken right at the top of the draft.
That's telling because it means that if you're going to wait on the next Mahomes to fall to #10 you might be waiting 10-12 years.
It'll definitely happen again. The question is whether or not you have 10 years to wait.
If you have 1 shot at it, you probably aren't putting your money on the thing that only happens once a decade. Make sense?
I think you have that backwards- you're looking at what all GM's have done in the past decade; I'm looking at what our GM did in the past few years. The right QB is only half the equation here...we also have to consider the person making that pick. And the fact is that our owner told him to draft Jackson would have completely eliminated the need to tank this season.
So far Jackson is a 99.0 QB. He doesn't have 200 passing attempts yet; if he did, he'd be 3rd on your list. He's a "franchise QB" in his first 17 games anyway.
That doesn't invalidate all your work though; I was just showing that there's more factors to consider than taking the best QB available. First you need to figure out who "the best" actually is, and then have faith that Grier will come to that same conclusion. He was wrong on Harris and many would argue that he was wrong picking Minkah over Jackson. That's all I'm saying- there's no guarantee that he makes the correct pick in 2019.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
texanphinaticForum Veteran"KeyFin wrote:
I think you have that backwards- you're looking at what all GM's have done in the past decade; I'm looking at what our GM did in the past few years. The right QB is only half the equation here...we also have to consider the person making that pick. And the fact is that our owner told him to draft Jackson would have completely eliminated the need to tank this season.
So far Jackson is a 99.0 QB. He doesn't have 200 passing attempts yet; if he did, he'd be 3rd on your list. He's a "franchise QB" in his first 17 games anyway.
That doesn't invalidate all your work though; I was just showing that there's more factors to consider than taking the best QB available. First you need to figure out who "the best" actually is, and then have faith that Grier will come to that same conclusion. He was wrong on Harris and many would argue that he was wrong picking Minkah over Jackson. That's all I'm saying- there's no guarantee that he makes the correct pick in 2019.
If you want guarantees then sports is a really really bad bet.
I would be interested to know if Grier passes on Jackson and Haskins because he just didnt like them, or because 2020 has been the plan all along and he has a specific target or two in mind.