I've spent a lot of time nit picking various estimates and talking about what is realistic and what is not.
Here is what I consider to be realistic, amongst our own free agents.
1.
OT Jake Long - $11.0 million per year
Comment: This is essentially what he was already making as the #1 overall pick. This seems like a happy medium place for Jake and for the Dolphins to gravitate toward on the numbers because it's obviously not what Joe Thomas gets, and the Dolphins will insist that if he wants what Joe Thomas gets he should more consistently play like Joe Thomas...and at the same time, it's not a pay cut. It's a number that won't make either side totally happy which is generally what you get out of a good price negotiation.
2.
CB Sean Smith - $7.5 million per year
Comment: People are being a little unrealistic about Smith's price tag. I think generally speaking, and I mean no offense to anyone out there, most people around here just haven't done a whole lot of looking into what various corners are costing. When I see Sean Smith valued at $5.0 million a year which is pretty much exactly what Richard Marshall and Dimitri Patterson got as NICKEL corners (actually slightly less), this is how I come to the conclusion that there are a lot of people kind of guestimating the number based on not much. The player I chose to base my estimate off is Eric Wright of the Buccaneers, who signed a 5 year, $37.5 million contract. Quite frankly, choosing Eric Wright as a comparison may be short changing Smith because Wright had serious attitude/discipline problems and played worse than Smith in 2010 and 2011. Smith's overall level of play more closely approximates that of Antonio Cromartie's prior to signing an $8.0 million a year deal with the New York Jets this off season, however Smith does not quite intercept the ball like Cromartie (Cro had 7 in 2010 & 2011, Smith has 4 in 2011 & 2012) and so that's why I bumped him down to the level of Eric Wright.
3.
DT Randy Starks - $6.0 million per year
Comment: In this case I'm modeling the contract off a number of contracts. Chris Canty at 27 years old signed a 6 year, $42 million deal way back in 2009. Kyle Williams signed a 6 year, $33.6 million deal in 2011 when he was about the same age as Randy Starks is right now. I'm more tempted to give Randy Kyle Williams' deal but there's a wrinkle, as there always is with these negotiations. Paul Soliai signed a deal worth $6.0 million per year this off season. He plays 25% fewer downs than Randy Starks. Given that Cullen Jenkins also has a 5 year, $30 million deal with the Eagles which he signed at 30 years old...I think there's a backbone of support at the $6.0 million mark and in actuality Randy will want a little bit more while the Dolphins will want a little less.
4.
RB Reggie Bush - $4.5 million per year
Comment: The most relevant contract to Reggie Bush's negotiation will actually be Reggie's own contract which was about $5.5 million per year. Reggie will be reluctant to take a pay cut when the fact of the matter is he proved more in Miami than he did in New Orleans. However, the Dolphins will have a strong argument to make. In addition to pointing out that they want Reggie to take a smaller role than he did in 2011 and 2012, they can point to Ahmad Bradshaw's deal in New York at $4.5 million per year and say this is the role we envision for you as we get other players involved in the ground game. It's also the money Darren Sproles got in New Orleans. The Dolphins won't be able to justify much lower than this because then you're in Michael Bush ($3.5 million per year) or Pierre Thomas ($2.8 million per year) territory and those guys were signed with the intention of making them backups. If Reggie really wants to be a dick he can bring up the inexplicably large contracts signed by both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina. But then Miami's natural retort would be, why do you think Marty Hurney was fired?
5.
WR Brian Hartline - $4.0 million per year
Comment: This is a tough one for a number of reasons. Brian Hartline is naturally going to look toward the contract that Antonio Brown signed in Pittsburgh prior to this season. That contract totals $43.0 million over 6 years, or $7.2 million a year. This, much like the DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart contracts, seems an outlier. Brown was only off his 2nd year in the NFL and already had gotten to be an 1100 yard receiver. Additionally, the Steelers were in the midst of frustrating negotiations with Mike Wallace and used Brown's extension as a means of sending a message to Wallace. The Dolphins could counter that outlier by bringing up another outlier, as Jerome Simpson had a sudden breakout season in 2011 much as Hartline has in 2012, and Simpson only got a 1 year, $2.0 million deal from the Vikings. Are there extenuating circumstances involved there? Of course. But there are in the Antonio Brown case as well. The comparisons I like better are that of Mario Manningham, Jordy Nelson and James Jones. I explained the Manningham comparison above and how strikingly similar the two players' situations are above. Manningham got $3.8 million a year. If the Dolphins want to bolster support for their numbers they can point toward Jordy Nelson's signing a contract worth about $3.5 million per year prior to the 2011 season, and James Jones signing a contract worth about $3.1 million per year the same off season. Jones had 1326 yards (1.34 YPPS) and 13 TDs in the 2 years prior while Nelson had 1198 yards and 7 TDs over those previous 2 years, but with a sterling 2.03 yards per pass snap that promised increases in production. Over the last 2 years Hartline has 1563 yards and 2 TDs, at 1.62 yards per pass snap. Hartline's agent may agree that the contract should be more based on the extension Nelson signed prior to 2011 since Hartline also has a 1.98 yards per pass snap in his latest action, but the agent could argue that Nelson's new money in the extension was actually 3 years at $13.35 million or $4.45 million a year...if you don't count the year Nelson had remaining that he would serve out before the extension would take effect. The Dolphins could meet him in the middle from their negotiating stance ($3.1 to $3.8 mil) and Hartline's negotiations stance ($4.5 mil), and gravitate toward $4.0 million.
6.
TE Anthony Fasano - $3.0 million per year
Comment: The controlling contract here is Anthony Fasano's own current contract. He is in a rare position to be almost exactly as valuable now as he was 3 years prior when he signed a deal worth $2.9 million per year. Prior to that deal Fasano had 793 yards and 9 TDs in the prior two years with the team. Right now he has 752 yards and 10 TDs over the 2011 and 2012 seasons. He's 3 years older but still only 28-29 years old, and he's probably in truth a better football player now than he was when they signed him in the off season before 2010. If Anythony Fasano wants some support for his worth he can point to the 3 year, $8.25 million contract signed by Daniel Graham in Tennessee in 2011. This was coming off a 5 year, $30 million contract Graham signed in Denver which was largely regarded as a mistake. At the time of the signing, Graham was 33 years old where Fasano only turns 29 years old this off season. Graham was arguably even more one-dimensional than Fasano. The Dolphins may actually be lucky to get him at only a $0.25 million premium to that contract, however the amount Fasano comes down versus how much the Dolphins come up would reflect the fact that Fasano is probably more interested in staying than Miami is interested in keeping him.
This is what I believe the prices will be to keep these players. It comes from a lot of research rather than just shooting from the hip. I believe all told the average life prices will sum up to about $36 million. You figure some amount of skew in the contracts' first year values but the average contract life for these guys is probably going to range between 2 and 4 years, so I wouldn't figure on too much skew (as the CBA limits it). I would think at most the average life price would be discounted 15% down to $31 million in the first year. If you (as I was) were one who believed the Dolphins would have $40 million under the salary cap then after claiming Dimitri Patterson you have to acknowledge they should have about $4.5 million less. That means re-signing everyone won't leave quite enough room for the rookies (possibly short by only about $1 million once rollover from this year is accounted for). If you believed the Dolphins would have $50 million under the salary cap then after signing everyone and accounting for rookies they should have about $9 million. That could account for Greg Jennings, but not much else.
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